Here's our summary of key events over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news trade is the latest partisan football grabbing all the headlines.
The world is shaking its head over the antics of US trade policy, as announced on Twitter. Fortunately there are other more substantive things going on in the world's economy.
The data is in for American car and truck sales and they tailed off in February as discounts were scaled back. Sales fell -2% overall from last February to 1.3 mln vehicles. Sales by both GM and Ford fell -7% each, and at Chrysley/Fiat they fell -1%. At Toyota (+5%), Subaru (+4%) and Volkswagen (+6%), they reported sales gains over last February although they hold much smaller market shares.
Separately in the US, car loan interest rates are rising, and quite quickly. According to one survey, they now average 5.2% pa which is up from 3.9% five years ago. This latest level is the highest in eight years. And it is pushing buyers to seek lower payments by extending the length of their loans.
Canada’s GDP expanded at a slower pace than expected in the December 2017 quarter, marking a disappointing end to a strong year and adding to worries that their economy faces stiff headwinds from American trade and tax policy.
In Japan, their jobless rate fell to 2.4% in January. That's a 25 year record low, while a ratio of job openings remained at a 44-year high, the latest signs that their labour market is tightening as growth improves. China claims a jobless rate of 3.9%.
China is expecting inflation to rise to +2.5% in February. It was 1.5% in January, so that would suggest something substantial is occurring there.
In Germany, both parties to their grand coalition have now now consented, so a Merkel-led continuation is in place, albeit with natural tensions between Merkel's conservatives and her 'socialist' allies.
Meanwhile, elections are underway in Italy right now and a result may take days to become clear. Opinion polls are banned in Italy in the final 14 days of the campaign. Indications are for a split and confusing outcome
In New York, the UST 10 yr yield is back up to 2.87%.
The gold price is also back up and will start the week at US$1,323/oz today. Gold production is rising quickly in Australia, the world's second largest producer after China.
Oil prices are just marginally higher however, with the US benchmark now just under US$61.50/bbl and the Brent benchmark under US$64.50/bbl. Overnight Russia suddenly reneged on its agreement to supply natural gas to the Ukraine and Europe. This is likely to spark an ugly trade impasse.
The Kiwi dollar will start today a little changed from Friday at 72.4 USc. On the cross rates we are at 93.3 AUc and but down ½c at 58.8 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 marginally up at 73.5 and at the bottom of its 2018 range.
Bitcoin is now at US$11,130, up +2.3% from this time on Friday.
This chart is animated here. For previous users, the animation process has been updated and works better now.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.