A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; term deposit rate changes; QV house prices; Barfoot March sales; ANZ job ads, ANZ commodity prices, bond tender, Aus trade balance; rates up; NZD up

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today:

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
NZCU Baywide have reduced its term deposit rates from 5 mnths to 5 yrs by -10 bps to -20 bps. See rates here and here.

QV HOUSE PRICES
Property values are almost flat in Auckland compared to a year ago, up strongly in Wellington and declining in Christchurch, according to Quotable Value. According to QV the average value of all residential dwellings throughout the country was $677,618 in March, up 7.3% compared to March last year. But there were substantial variations around the country. In Auckland the average value of homes was $1,055,992 in March, up just 1% compared to a year earlier. Within the region, only the North Shore posted any significant gains, with property values up 2.9% compared to a year ago. Coastal North Shore properties continue to be the most expensive in the country with an average value of $1,422,283, up 3.4% on March last year. Homes on the Gulf Islands (mainly Waiheke)  have also posted a healthy gain in value of 8.5% over the last 12 months. But in the rest of the region, values have risen only modestly and in some cases declined.

BARFOOT MARCH SALES
Barfoot & Thompson's March sales were the weakest they have been for the month since March 2010 and both the average and median selling prices of residential properties sold by the agency were down on March last year. Barfoot sold 1064 residential properties in March, well up from the 665 it sold in February but down compared to March last year when it sold 1110 and well down compared to March 2016 (1341 sold) and March 2015 (1597). March is usually Barfoot's busiest month of the year for sales which are typically around double those of February, but this year its sales in March were the lowest they have been for the month since 2010. The average selling price in March was $931,292, up from $919,454 in February but still well below the peak of $968,570 set in March last year. The median selling price was $860,000 compared to $820,000 in February and $900,000 in March last year. At the same time the total number of homes the agency has available for sale is steadily increasing.

ANZ JOB ADS
Jobs ads grew by +0.9% month-on-month in the month of March 2018. This is up from the -1.2% decline in February 2018. The annual rate of growth was 6.1%, which, while strong, is not as strong as the growth rates seen in 2016. This reflects maturity in the economic cycle, where the labour market is tight and skilled labour hard to come by. Based on this, ANZ economists forecast some moderating in employment growth. When looking at the distribution of this growth, it is clear that most of the growth is in the regions. Auckland and Wellington job ads have only grown by +1.3% and +1.4% on a year-on-year basis. “Construction, utilities, manufacturing and transport” category had the one-third of the job adds but only grew by 1.3% year-on-year and further moderation is expected as skilled labour is hard to come by.

ANZ COMMODITY PRICES
The ANZ Commodity Index rose for the third consecutive month, up 4.8% since the start of the year and up 1.2% in March 2018. Dairy prices continued to push higher, driven by New Zealand supply concerns, very low GDT supply and strong demand from a number of key markets. Meat and fibre prices were lifted by wool and lamb prices. Beef prices were unchanged in March. Seafood prices were unchanged. As were prices for horticultural products. Forestry managed a small gain, which marked the 18th consecutive monthly gain. Aluminium prices fell -5.1% in March 2018.

PRIME MINISTER TO ATTEND CHOGM
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern will travel to Europe next week for the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in London and meetings with counterparts in Paris and Berlin. The meetings will be about bilateral issues such as trade and security and global issues such as sustainable development and climate change.

IRRIGATION FUNDING
in line with the Coalition Agreement and the Confidence & Supply Agreement, the Government has begun winding down public funding for large-scale irrigation through Crown Irrigation Investments Limited (CIIL).  “This represents a shift in priorities to the previous government. Large-scale private irrigation schemes should be economically viable on their own, without requiring significant public financing. We must also be mindful of the potential for large-scale irrigation to lead to intensive farming practices which may contribute to adverse environmental outcomes,” Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. All existing CIIL commitments for development contracts will be honoured.

AGRIHQ MILK PRICE
The AgriHQ milk price forecast for the 2017-18 season has lifted three cents to $6.30/kg of milksolids this week. Regular grade WMP to ship in June lifted 1.1% at the April 3 Global Dairy Trade (GDT) event and unsalted butter to ship in June bounced 5.4%. These were the primary drivers for the lift in the AgriHQ milk price forecast.

BOND TENDER
A bond tender for $100 mln of September 2040 inflation indexed bonds was completed today by the New Zealand Debt Management Office. There were $184 mln worth of bids from 37 bidders. The weighted average accepted yield for the bonds dropped from 2.20% in the March auction to 2.16%.

AUSTRALIAN TRADE SURPLUS
In seasonally adjusted terms, the trade balance on goods and services was in surplus of +$825 mln. The January trade surplus was revised down to +$952 mln. Exports rose by +$2 mln to $34.2 bln. Imports rose +$130 mln to $33.6 bln. Rural goods were the biggest gainer in exports and consumption goods were the biggest gainer in imports.

BENCHMARK INTEREST RATES RISE
Local swap rates are higher and steeper, up +1 bps at the short end to the 10 yr rate being up +4 bps today. The UST 10yr yield is now at 2.81%, up +3 bps. The Aussie Govt 10 yr is now at 2.66% (up +3 bps). The China 10 yr is unchanged at 3.75% and the NZ Govt 10 yr is up +11 bps at 2.81%. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.96%.

BITCOIN HOLDS LOWER
The bitcoin price is at US6,635 which is a loss of -9.4% on the day.

NZ DOLLAR UP
The NZD is up slightly at 73.1 USc. On the cross rates we are at 94.8 AUc and at 59.5 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 at 74.4.

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