Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news oil prices are on the move higher, possibly ending the long period of low inflation.
And the growth in American consumer credit has been falling quickly recently, and today's March data shows it dipping below +4% for the first time in 16 months, resuming the low growth levels seen before their presidential elections. Growth in car loans is holding this debt growth back. Growth in student loans is above average.
China's foreign currency reserves inched lower in April and by more than analysts were expecting, but they still exceed US$3 tln. This downward track is to be expected however given their future may include current account deficits.
The OECD is monitoring household incomes in their 35 members and says growth in real household income per capita, which provides a better picture of changes in households’ economic well-being than real GDP growth per capita, picked up in the fourth quarter of 2017 but was still slower than real GDP growth per capita. (Data for New Zealand is not separately supplied however.)
They also report that inflation in the OECD is up, now at +2.3% pa in March. New Zealand's data is at the low end in this review, at +1.1% pa. Given rising petrol prices, and our lower currency value, it seems it won't stay that low for much longer.
Across the ditch, all eyes will be focused on their Federal Budget which will be released about 9:30pm NZT. Because tax revenues have been growing faster than expected, a generous set of policies, possibly including tax cuts, are expected to be announced.
The UST 10yr yield is at 2.95% and unchanged from this time yesterday. The Chinese 10yr is up to 3.67% (+1 bp) while the New Zealand equivalent is at 2.79% (also unchanged).
Gold is at US$1,314/oz in New York, unchanged
Oil prices however have jumped more than +US$1 in the US to just under US$71/bbl and even more for the Brent benchmark which is now just over US$76/bbl. This is the first time since late 2014 that the price has been over US$70 and comes as Venezuela's troubles worsen, and the threat of new Iranian sanctions rise. These new levels are likely to flow though to consumption countries inflation levels, and quite soon.
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged at 70.2 USc. On the cross rates we are at 93.4 AUc and 58.9 euro cents. That leaves the TWI-5 unchanged at 72.8.
Bitcoin is however at US$9,362 and that is a net loss of -2% since this time yesterday.
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The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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