A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; BNZ reverses TD 'special', PSI flashes warning signal, China growth stays up, RBNZ claims improves safety, swaps slip again, NZD holds

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
BNZ today ended its 8 month 'special' offer, taking the rate for that term back down from 3.45% to 3.20%,

DANGER WARNING
The June PSI data out today brought some worrying news. The seasonally adjusted index level was at its lowest level for a June since 2009, and its lowest for any month since December 2012. While the data is still recording an expansion, the swiftness of the fall away will be worrying Wellington, doubly so because it is the giant services sector. It is the sort of data that most people won't notice - until it is too late. There is a positive in here in that 'new orders' are still relatively strong. But quite weak is the employment data. On top of the weakening PMI (for manufacturing), and sinking business confidence, public policy makers have a lot to do to prevent the compounding slippage from gathering pace.

CHINESE CONSUMERS KEEP THINGS BUBBLING
China has reported 2018 Q2 growth pretty much in line with what markets were expecting. They say year-on-year, their economy grew +6.7%, and -0.1% lower than the March quarter. There was better growth in their retail sector, with this up an impressive +9.0% in June (compared with +8.5% in March). But industrial production was up only +6.0% in June, down from a +6.8% rate in March. Fixed asset growth also slowed a little. China is also now publishing labour market statistics using the internationally recognised survey methods. That shows their jobless rate at 4.8%, unchanged from three months ago. But equity investors in Shanghai have viewed today's data sceptically seeing the 6.7% rate as a seven quarter low, and the SSE Index is down -0.5% so far.

SAFER NOW
A new analysis by the RBNZ shows that the amount of equity borrowers have in their homes has increased significantly since LVRs were introduced. The analysis also reveals that only about one third of households have an outstanding mortgage on the property they live in. The reduction in vulnerability between 20012/14 and 2014/16 was substantial and has probably continued. The introduction of LVR regulations wasn't the only reason; likely fast-rising housing values helped reduce vulnerability too.

STAYING LOWER
We have another dairy auction this week (Wednesday morning). At the last one, prices fell a chunky -5% with WMP prices down -7.3%. The derivatives market is suggesting WMP prices should hold at the new lower level. SMP prices might firm, but just slightly. Soem analysts are already forecasting a reduction again on Wednesday. In any case, it is looking unlikely that there will be a bounce-back.

AN UPDATE
We have added new information to our Key bank Metric tool. Included now are new categories on the makeup of the boards of directors, the CEO (and their pay), the senior management list, auditors names, plus the overall leverage of each institution. None of this new data comes via the RBNZ however. It's a developing resource.

SWAP RATES SLIP YET AGAIN
Local swap rates are softer at the short end of the curve, down -1 bp for terms of four years and shorter, but unchanged for longer terms. The UST 10yr is unchanged at 2.83%. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.64, unchanged, the China Govt 10yr is at 3.49% (down -5 bps), and the NZ Govt 10 yr is at 2.83%, also down -5 bps. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bps yet again at 1.93%.

BITCOIN UP
The bitcoin price is now at US$6,338 which is +1.6% higher than this time on Friday.

NZD HOLDS, MARGINALLY FIRMER
The NZD is little changed at 67.7 USc. On the cross rates we are a little firmer at 91.2 AUc and 57.9 euro cents. That keeps the TWI-5 at 71.1.

This chart is animated here. For previous users, the animation process has been updated and works better now.