Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news Aussie farmers are facing tough drought conditions.
But first, data out of the US on job openings and wholesale trade was uneventful, just cruising along at unchanged and quite modest levels and certainly not changing the rising growth narrative.
Wall Street is pushing ahead, up modestly today as a risk appetite stays in the market.
In Canada, there was disappointing housing start data released for August. New dwelling construction is trending lower, which will hold up house prices in many major urban centres.
But in Mexico, industrial production rose in July more than expected.
And still there is no news of a resolution to the US-Canada talks as part of the overall NAFTA update package.
In Germany, analysts were less negative in September about economic sentiment and in the current environment, that is being seen as a 'win' in the influential ZEW survey.
In China, the heavy hand of censors is reaching into financial news as well. A major news service has been 'temporarily shut down' because of its reporting of the trade war between the US and China. Unless it understates the risks, reporting on the subject is banned.
And staying in China, car sales dropped -4.8% in August in a particularly sharp reduction that was quite unexpected.
In Turkey, a country at the core of the emerging market stress fault line, they reported Q2-2018 growth at +5.2% pa, sharply lower than the Q1-2018 rate of 7.4% and before the August stress really hit hard. It is pretty clear that their currency woes are nowhere near over.
In Australia it is becoming clear that this year's drought will be a harsh one. It has been twelve years since the last major drought there, but the 2018 version will be seem worse because it comes off the back of a multi-year string of some excellent seasons. This time, the main effects will be in Queensland and NSW (and will therefore get more news coverage). Their bright spot this time is in Western Australia.
The UST 10yr yield is higher at 2.98%, a +4 bps gain in a day. Their 2-10 curve is tighter at just under +23 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.58% (unchanged), the China Govt 10yr is at 3.69% and up +2 bps, while the NZ Govt 10 yr is at 2.60%, also up +2 bps.
Gold is little changed at US$1,196/oz in New York.
US oil prices are up sharply and now just over US$69/bbl. The Brent benchmark is also higher, now just on US$77/bbl. These are gains of almost +US$2/bbl, driven by a sudden turnaround in supply sentiment as traders realise how hard the Iran sanctions are going to hit the flow of crude.
The Kiwi dollar is starting today a little lower again at 65.1 USc. On the cross rates we are at 91.7 AUc, and at 56.2 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 at 69.1 and a new low since October 2015.
Bitcoin is marginally lower at US$6,201. In the US a federal judge has ruled that their securities law can be used to regulate cryptocurrencies. This price is tracked in the currency charts below.
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10 Comments
Thanks for your outrage porn but you really haven't said anything as you haven't provided anything resembling evidence or proof. I know this is an inconvenience but otherwise you sound like a rambling lunatic who is unable to put together a coherent argument. .
Oh wait you are.
Thanks for your outburst. You seem like a very well-adjusted person. You are the one who resorts to personal attacks when hiding behind a keyboard and I am the lunatic who is "unable to put together a coherent argument". Right!
By the way, does the government cover the costs for you to see your shrink or has Labour 180ed on that promise as well?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/106998346/labours-reform-of-tax-and-el…
Depends how you define success. Have to do that before you call 'failure'.
We need a CGT, as we need zero interest and the cessation of usury. 'Cos it's a finite planet. We need to limit/crase immigration, we're more than full in sustainability terms - much as most folk don't understand this. We'd be swamped - they're ALL humanitarian visas, it happens that way when your species is 5-6 billion overshot. Power prices are an attempt to measure the wrong thing - energy underwrites money, we're actually getting energy-poorer and it's showing up bottom-end first. So far so predictable.
But Labour are indeed not there by a large margin. I just think they've got less distance to go than the Nats.
I find it interesting that people are unaware of China censoring news, it happens all the time. They also censor social media, and you have to watch what you say in public.
In relation to the trade war everyone involved loses. The US is very dependent on their consumer economy, and if that falters it will have a cascade effect.
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