Positive US jobs data; mixed US services PMIs; strong US truck orders; Fed official sees rate rises; Turkey inflation explodes; Italy restrains itself; UST 10yr at 3.15%; oil jumps, gold slips; NZ$1 = 65.3 USc; TWI-5 = 69.7

Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news Wall Street is up a little today on good US data. More impressively, the US dollar has jumped, and benchmark interest rates are up sharply to their highest level since mid 2011 as inflation expectations get a significant boost.

Firstly, the US ADP employment report, the precursor report for Saturday's non-farm payrolls report, came in at a good level, indicating that +230,000 jobs were added in September, the highest in seven months. Service sector hiring, along with a construction sector boost were the drivers. Manufacturing jobs growth was tiny however.

And then there was a good service sector PMI report. Actually, two services PMIs were released overnight. The ISM version was particularly strong, up +3.1 percentage points, while the Markit version actually went the other way, dipping to an eight month low. The Markit version is the internationally benchmarked version.

A good indicator of growth in the services sector is demand for long-haul trucks. September orders for these were particularly strong as freight companies struggle to to meet rising freight demand. The ADP data also shows rising employment in this sector. Interestingly, three of the five main large truck sellers in the US involve imported brands.

All this upbeat data had a Fed official saying that rate rises are the way to respond to try and contain the inflationary consequences. But when they reach the needed level, they can likely be held there for a long time, he says.

In Canada, the first data on their September housing market sales is out for Toronto and that shows marginally higher volumes being sold, but prices declined for the second straight month.

In Turkey, their inflation rate hit +25% year-over-year as their economy teeters. Producer prices rose +46%, so more consumer pain is on the way. This had their strongman President calling on the state to raid hoarders and asking people to inform police of price increases at shops. Sounds like early Venezuela to me.

Not all emerging markets are facing this sort of crisis. Indonesia reported its September inflation at +2.8%, and down from +3.2% in August.

And the new Italian government shifted is rhetoric back on deficit spending, committing to lower levels than previously indicated - and despite the obvious scepticism, markets cheered anyway.

The UST 10yr yield has jumped to 3.15% on inflation expectations and up +9 bps. Their 2-10 curve has pushed out to +29 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.64% (down -3 bps), the China Govt 10yr is at 3.66% (unchanged due to the holiday week there), while the NZ Govt 10 yr is at 2.61%, and also down -3 bps.

Gold however has slipped today, down -US$3 an now at US$1,199/oz in New York.

US oil prices are up strongly again and now just under US$76.50/bbl. The Brent benchmark is now just under US$86.50/bbl. This comes even though there seems to be an agreement for producers to raise output. Along with a rising US dollar, this all means the NZ dollar cost of crude oil is rising fast.

The Kiwi dollar is starting lower by almost -¾c at just under 65.3 USc. On the cross rates we are little changed at 91.7 AUc, and at 56.7 euro cents. That pushes the TWI-5 down to 69.7 and where it was two weeks ago.

Bitcoin is now at US$6,478 and another dip of less than -1% since this time yesterday. This rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

This chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».