Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of more signs the current global expansion cycle is running out of steam.
In the US, a measure of confidence among American households fell in November. The Conference Board said that its index of consumer confidence dropped from its highest level since 2000. The 'expectations' part of the survey fell particularly sharply. And all this came in a survey taken before the major GM cutbacks announced yesterday.
And it is becoming clear that businesses are holding back on capital investment, uncertain that the public policy settings in the US make it a good time to invest.
And the US President has indicated new tariffs on imported cars are likely to be imposed soon. And it also indicated that new tariffs aimed at China are also likely to be imposed. History's lessons are lost in the current US Administration and the consequences for them - and us - are unlikely to be positive.
The respected Case-Shiller home price index released data today showing that home price growth is running at its slowest in two years in September.
The United Nations issued an Emissions Gap report today, continuing the warnings of the consequences of underachieving the needed reduction in heat-inducing emissions. But this report made zero reference to New Zealand; we are not even mentioned in any footnote. Whatever we do seems to be inconsequential to any global outcome.
China industrial profit growth in China is still sliding. It was up just +3.6% year-on-year in October, the second lowest in more than a year. Private company profits grew even slower, and foreign company results were lower still. The Shanghai stock exchange closed unchanged yesterday, but that is down -23% for all of 2018. Wall Street is only marginally lower this morning but leaving it down -1% for 2018.
In Australia, regulator ASIC has warned low-doc (or "non-confirming") lenders about their practices saying the idea of supplying a loan provided to a consumer after taking less than reasonable steps to verify the consumer’s financial situation is "fundamentally incompatible with responsible lending".
The UST 10yr yield is lower at 3.05%. Their 2-10 curve is now under +23 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.63% (down -1 bp), the China Govt 10yr is at 3.44% and up another +1 bp overnight, while the NZ Govt 10 yr is at 2.67% and down -1 bp.
Gold is down -US$10 at US$1,212/oz.
US oil prices have settled lower and are now just under US$51/bbl. The Brent benchmark is now just under US$60/bbl, both about a -US$1 fall.
The Kiwi dollar is starting today little changed against the greenback at 67.8 USc. But on the cross rates we are a little firmer at 94.1 AUc, and at 60.1 euro cents. That has the TWI-5 at 72.6.
Bitcoin is now at US$3,685 which is -1.6% lower than this time yesterday. This rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
This chart is animated here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.