US factory output falling, consumer sentiment up; Canada factory output up, house sales slump; China FDI rising; Aust. apartment sales tough; UST 10yr 2.59%; oil and gold unchanged; NZ$1 = 68.5 USc; TWI-5 = 73

Here's our summary of key events over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news other than the war against peace by the extreme culture warriors that has been brought to New Zealand.

In the US, factory output fell for the second consecutive month in February, a growing sign that a long-predicted slowdown is weighing on their economy. For consumer goods output it is three consecutive months of decline; for business goods the February decline was especially steep. Year-on-year however, it is up +3.5% overall. Accompanying this national result was a key regional result that isn't positive either.

But consumers haven't caught up with the declining factory mood yet. It is hard to know which measure is indicating the likely future trend.

Updated US Treasury data for January shows that foreigners are continuing their sell-down of US investments.

In Canada, factory output rose in January and by more than expected, following a sharp decline the month before and a string of previous falls.

But home sales in February in Canada were down sharply and down by much more than analysts were expecting.

In China, they reported that foreign direct investment in the country rose +3.3% in the year to February, up from +2.8% reported in January.

They also reported that house prices were broadly stable in February.

In Japan, their central bank has turned decidedly gloomy as they downgraded their immediate economic prospects, but warned others of the risks of undue pessimism. They took no new action however.

In Australia, there is new analysis that show that nearly half of all apartments sold in Sydney and Melbourne in February were sold at prices lower than what the seller originally paid. The push into intensive housing seems to pose special risks of volatility for those who buy this type of dwelling.

The UST 10yr yield has fallen further even if minor and is now at 2.59% - actually its lowest level in 15 months. Their 2-10 curve is narrower at +15 bps while their negative 1-5 curve has widened sharply to -12 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is down to 1.98%, the China Govt 10yr is unchanged at 3.16%, while the NZ Govt 10 yr is also unchanged at 2.10%.

Gold has risen, up to US$1,302, and back to about where it was at the start of the week.

US oil prices are little-changed, now just over US$58.50/bbl while the Brent benchmark is just over US$67/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is at 68.5 USc and little-changed over the weekend. On the cross rates we are marginally weaker at 96.6 AUc. Against the euro we are at 60.4 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 at 73.

Bitcoin is also a little firmer at US$3,968. This rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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