Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news investors are still in a risk-off mood.
Yesterday, equity markets in Asia tumbled to follow Wall Street and Europe at the end of last week. Tokyo was down -3%, Hong Kong and Shanghai were both down -2%. But although these are big daily falls, that still leaves the Shanghai index up +23% so far in 2019. (Recall, it fell -24% in 2018.) Hong Kong is up +14% year-to-date after yesterday. And Tokyo is still up +7% so far this year. So, yes, yesterday's falls were large but only a short-term correction.
And this morning, Wall Street is flat-lining just below even, and European markets did the same in the earlier session. But as today's session goes on, the Wall Street decline is inching down and the S&P500 is now another -0.2% lower.
The National Activity Index released by the Chicago Fed earlier today won't be changing any minds. But it does not support the view that the US economy is expanding. It shows a recent fall away in activity.
Things are certainly challenging in the oil patch. A Dallas Fed survey points to growth that is falling away faster than expected. Of particular concern for them is the quick pace in the fall-away of new orders.
In Europe, the EU has announced it has completed 'no deal' preparations for Brexit which is now scheduled to happen on April 13 (NZT).
There is little data out to give direction to markets in Asia. General fears of trade prospects are driving market investors. But the Chinese ordered 300 airplanes from Airbus overnight, completing a long-awaited and expected deal.
In India, ahead of their election, things are not as rosy as you might expect. They are having slowdowns in their exports, and their rural economy. In addition, credit availability is under pressure. All this is likely to undermine their high growth expectations. India's economy may not yet be central to world trade, but a faltering there will be noticed.
And to balance out the gloom, we should note that iron ore prices are remaining high. And benchmark copper prices, often a signal of future economic trends, are also remaining high. Neither of these commodities would remain elevated if Chinese demand wasn't resilient. Actually, there is an interesting dearth of economic news out of China. The state clamps are on.
The UST 10yr yield has fallen sharply and is now under 2.40%. Their 2-10 curve is now +16 bps while their negative 1-5 curve has widened to -24 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is holding low at 1.78%, the China Govt 10yr is down -3 bps at 3.11%, while the NZ Govt 10 yr is at 1.93%. and a sharp drop of -8 bps yesterday. The NZGB 1-5 curve is negative now. The spread of negative yield curves seems to have everyone's attention these days. Even our own wholesale swap 1-5 curve has just slipped negative.
Gold is rising, up +US$9 to US$1,322/oz.
US oil prices are little-changed today at just on US$59/bbl while the Brent benchmark is just on US$67/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is also rising broadly and now at 69.1 USc. On the cross rates we are firmer again, at 97.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up at 61.1 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 at 73.6.
Bitcoin is little-changed at US$3,960. This rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».