Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news an attempted market rally to a more risk-on mood is fizzing today.
After starting the day more than +1% higher, Wall Street has been giving up this risk-on gain as the session develops. It is now up less than +0.4% and leaking the earlier gain. (It closed up +0.72% with a late recovery.) Overnight Europe rose about +0.7% and yesterday Asian markets were all over the place with Tokyo up an impressive +2.1%, Hong Kong breaking even, and Shanghai down a very sharp -1.5% (where offshore investors may be bailing out). (Australia was unchanged; the NZX50 up +0.6%.)
US housing starts in February came in very weak, down almost -10% from the same month a year ago. Building permits were -2% lower on the same basis. Both reversed gains in January which seemed out of place in the string of weak data we have had here for a while. Meanwhile home price growth slowed again and for the 10th straight month in January, making it a buyers market heading into their spring selling season.
And American consumer confidence fell back sharply in the latest survey, a shift prompted by more pessimistic views about current business conditions and the job market. Another regional Fed factory survey also reported a pullback in March.
In Europe, they have decided to let each member nation figure out whether to use equipment from China's Huawei for their G5 infrastructure, ignoring American demands to keep the company out of these new high-speed digital networks. But the EU is working toward a common security approach.
Economic fallout from the Christchurch tragedy has focused on a potential decline in tourism. But retailer Kathmandu is also flagging that locals may have changed their mood for retail spending as well.
The UST 10yr yield has rallied somewhat and is now just under 2.41%. Their 2-10 curve is now +15 bps while their negative 1-5 curve is at -23 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is up +3 bps at 1.81%, the China Govt 10yr is down -2 bps at 3.09%, while the NZ Govt 10 yr is down -4 bps at 1.89%.
Gold is lower, down -US$7 to US$1,315/oz.
US oil prices are up about +US$1 today at just under US$60/bbl while the Brent benchmark is just on US$68/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is broadly stable at 69.2 USc. On the cross rates we are softer at 96.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up at 61.3 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 at 73.7.
Bitcoin is down a bit more than -1% at US$3,914. This rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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13 Comments
A timely rubbishing of economics. Talk about a dismal science - actually, don't even call it that.
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-03-26/failed-economics/
Interesting to see Keen gets the energy part, interesting too, to note that the 'Nobel Prize' for 'economics' isn't actually one.
Awesome! It's post a random link day!
Obvious PDK requirements: The link can't actually represent anything but an alternative, unsupported opinion.
A timely rubbishing of the heliospheric universe and a global earth.
https://www.tfes.org/
Interesting to see that Mark Sargent gets that the scientific elite have been lying to us part.
I don't think it matters. The point was that PDK, on his normal vendetta against something he doesn't understand, cherry picked Nordhaus and ignoring the multitude of divisive opinion surrounding it by economists. The Nobel (Memorial) Prize wasn't for him being right or wrong, it was for his seminal attempts to actually quantitatively link economics and climate science - something that PDK, in his own words, believes does not happen in economics.
Steve Keen is the most dangerous economist in the public sphere. He is the Trump of economics.
A dangerous narcissist is actually how I would best describe him. Unfortunately he is able to influence the impressionable masses. Despite what he may project, his work garners very little respect within academia.
Interesting, I wonder who is blinkered? The article clearly identifies Nordhaus as saying climate change is not very relevant to economics, that the impacts are not significant enough to be concerned about, which Keen clearly dismisses as wholly flawed. But Keen is not the only one, the article specificly identifies two others and an unspecified "others".
So what ae you saying Wymad? That you don't think climate change is happening? Or do you not think there is an anthropological component to it? Or that you agree with Nordhaus, that the impacts are not significant for a banker to be concerned about?
Considering that our Government, and others around the world are actively seeking to impose extra charges on us in the name of "climate change" I think any rationale you brought to the table would be worth discussing. Or were you just shooting the messenger?
The Ozone hole debacle proved the point beyond doubt. Economics had no idea at all that it was happening, had no way of anticipating it, and if there hadn't been a 'cheap' alternative to CFC's we'd still be being hammered by obfuscational propaganda from those economically-dependent on the CFC game.
Nymad is sounding more and more like a peddler of the mantra at tertiary level. Maybe a problem with bums on seats or validity of papers past? I wonder how many thousands have been shown the supply/demand graph, but haven't been shown the supply/availability one. Oddly enough, the latter two meet but can never cross..........
I note too the lack of referenced rebuttal in the case of Steve Keen. We're just told to believe in the posits of those with a narrow, planet-avoiding focus while the rest can be put down with disparaging smears.
Yeah, I did a quick check, and there weren't 250 new house listings this morning new listing, (filter by auckland house and sort by latest listings), but it could be related to that thing where once you got past page 8 or so or the listings the number of listings jumped. Maybe it's been under reporting on the first few pages and they fixed the bug.
http://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/buyers-remorse/
Kunstler and the Automatic Earth always reckoned this was a Clinton cover-up.
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