US employment surges but wage gain rate slips; Canada jobs sag; China CPI jumps, PPI off the boil; China new loan growth crashes; UST 10yr 2.89; oil up and gold unchanged; NZ$1 = 72.9 USc; TWI-5 = 74

Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of a +1.5% jump in prices on Wall Street, and a rise in benchmark yields.

That was caused by a surprise small rise in the US participation rate to 63% that has brought a flood of new people into employment with an impressive +313,000 new jobs added in the American economy in February. Their January data was revised higher as well. However, their unemployment rate held at 4.1%. And somewhat surprisingly, their wage increases slipped to +2.6% from +2.8% the previous month. Overall, this reveals a labour market that is expanding strongly.

In Canada, similar data was released and that shows employment sagging with a loss of full-time jobs and a rise in part-time employment in February. But this data really just evens out some much larger shifts that we saw in January when part-time jobs collapsed massively after a sharp rise in their minimum wage. The net result over the two months is a large fall in part-time jobs (-88,000) and a tiny rise in full-time jobs (+10,000).

In China, there have been some eye-catching CPI data released showing an unexpectedly sharp rise in consumer inflation, up to +2.9% in February. Increases in food prices were the main driver. It is a level we haven't seen there in four years. Meanwhile producer price inflation is continuing its downward track and now at +3.9% that is the lowest rate of increase since late 2016.

And after an unexpected splurge in new loans in January, Chinese banking regulators clamped down hard in February and restricted new loan issuance to just NZ$182 bln, far, far lower than the profligate NZ$630 bln issued in January.

Staying in China, home loan rates are rising. A survey shows first mortgage rates averaged 5.46% in February 2018. A year ago they averaged 4.47%. 53 out of the 533 banks monitored in 35 Chinese cities raised first home loan rates in February, seven cut them and the rest left them unchanged.

And something that what might explain why verified news sources are under attack these days. MIT social scientists have shown that lies spread faster and more freely than the truth in this day of Twitter, Facebook and other addictive channels of 'news'.

The UST 10yr yield has bounced back to 2.89% today on Wall Street on the jobs data. The Chinese 10yr is at 3.85% (down -4 bps) and the New Zealand equivalent is at 2.97% (unchanged).

Local swap rates ended the week little changed.

The VIX has moved steadily lower over the past week but is still elevated compared to 2017. The Fear & Greed index is moving back from its extreme 'fear' levels of this time last week.

Gold markets aren't closed yet but the price of gold has moved little today and is now at US$1,323 in New York. And that is very similar to what it was at this time last week.

Oil prices are moving higher today, bouncing back after yesterday's sharp falls, with the US benchmark now just under US$62 and the Brent benchmark under US$65.50/bbl. The US active rig count is now at its highest level in three years.

The Kiwi dollar is ending the week on a high and is now at just under 72.9 USc. On the cross rates we are at 92.9 AUc and 59.2 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 back at 74 and its highest in two weeks but still in the 2018 tight range.

Bitcoin is now at US$8,707 and down almost -7% below where we left it yesterday afternoon and a three week low. (Remember, this price was US$19,343 three months ago.)

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».