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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; no rate changes; overseas trade; base erosion profit shifting; retail markets; bond tender; rates lower; bitcoin lower; NZD holds

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; no rate changes; overseas trade; base erosion profit shifting; retail markets; bond tender; rates lower; bitcoin lower; NZD holds

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today:

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here either.

OVERSEAS TRADE
Overseas trade data, released today, showed a trade surplus of $263 mln, with $5.1 bln in exports and $4.8 in imports. Kiwifruit exports rose $197 mln or 82% on a year-on-year basis. The other main contributors to April’s export rise were meat and edible offal, up $94 million, and milk powder, butter, and cheese, up $68 million. Lamb, up $42 million, led the rise in meat exports, closely followed by beef, up $41 million. Butter led the rise in dairy exports. The leading contributor to the rise in imports was an increased value of petroleum and products, up $221 million or 56 percent. Vehicles, parts, and accessories, up $179 million, and mechanical machinery and equipment, up $108 million, were the other main contributors to imports rise.

BASE EROSION PROFIT SHIFTING
New legislation to improve the fairness of the tax system and prevent large multinationals from exploiting rules in order to shift their profits offshore has passed another step closer to becoming law. The Taxation (Neutralising Base Erosion and Profit Shifting) Bill passed through its second reading in Parliament. Detailed debate will continue when Parliament resumes in June. The changes will prevent multinationals from using BEPS strategies, including artificially high interest rates on loans from related parties to shift profits out of New Zealand, related-party transactions which are intended to shift profits to offshore group members in a manner that does not reflect the actual economic activities undertaken in New Zealand and offshore, hybrid mismatch arrangements that exploit differences between countries' tax rules to achieve an advantageous tax position, artificial arrangements to avoid having a taxable presence or a permanent establishment in New Zealand and tactics to stymie an Inland Revenue investigation, such as withholding relevant information that is held by an offshore group member.

RETAIL MARKETS
The latest Retail NZ Retail Radar report shows that 58% of retailers either hit or exceeded their targets in the March 2018 quarter. This means that 42% did not meet targets as a result of low consumer confidence in a highly competitive market. However, retailers are still confident and three-quarters expect to meet target in the coming quarter. The ‘liquor’ and ‘electrical and electronic goods’ category had the strongest growth, and declines were seen for ‘motor vehicles and parts’ and ‘recreational goods’. In terms of prices, a third of the retailers expect prices to rise due to higher wage costs in production and retail and higher freight costs due to higher fuel prices.

APRIL 2025'S BOND TENDER
The New Zealand Debt Management Office conducted a tender to $200 mln worth of April 2025 bonds. The bonds attracted 38 bids with a total value of $797 mln. Of these, 13 bids were successful in bidding for the bonds at a weighted average accepted yield of 2.56%. The lowest accepted yield was 2.5550% and the highest accepted yield was 2.5650%.

WESTPAC CONDUCT
The Federal Court in Australia has dismissed ASIC's case that Westpac manipulated one of the country's most important interest rates, but found the bank engaged in unconscionable conduct. Justice Jonathan Beach said there were four occasions where Westpac traders had acted with the dominant purpose of influencing the bank bill swap rate, which amounted to unconscionable conduct, but he was not convinced they had successfully manipulated the price in these instances.

CBA'S SUPERANNUATION STING
The Commonwealth Bank plans to slug superannuation and pension fund members with a hefty fee to fund the cost of regulatory compliance, in a move described as an "out-and-out gouge" by Financial Services Minister Kelly O'Dwyer. The bank this month wrote to members of its flagship superannuation fund Colonial First State, informing them they'll be charged a "regulatory reform fee" in June 2018.

TARIFFS ON CAR IMPORTS
The Trump administration is considering adding a 25% tax on imported cars in the US on the basis that vehicle and parts imports were threatening the industry's health and ability to research and develop new, advanced technologies.

BENCHMARK INTEREST RATES SLIP/FLATTEN AGAIN
Local swap rates are lower and flatter today, with the short end down -1 bps and the long end down -3 bps. The UST 10yr yield has also slipped -6 bps to 2.99% today. The Aussie Govt 10 yr is now at 2.80% (down -5 bps). The China 10 yr is at 3.68%, down -2 bps. And the NZ Govt 10 yr is down another -5 bp to 2.78%. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -2 bps, back to 1.98%.

BITCOIN LOWER
The bitcoin price is now at US$7,616 which is down -3.8% from this time yesterday.

NZ DOLLAR HOLDS
However, the NZD is also stable at 69.2 USc. We are little changed against the Aussie at 91.6 AUc, and up slightly against the euro at 59.1 euro cents. That has the TWI-5 now at 72.1.

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16 Comments

Probably worth mentioning our slip from 16th to 23rd rank on IMD's World Competitiveness Report .
While the rank is not all that important, the reasons provided by the institute the for the slump in socioeconomic performance are bang on and some of these need to be addressed with utmost urgency:
- Living costs and low wages inhibit talent in big cities
- Lack of senior leaders with international experience
- Uncertainty over new immigration policy
- Poor readiness for digital economy
- Underdeveloped capital markets
- Too many oligopolies and lack of ambition to scale among small-to-medium businesses
- Auckland's infrastructure failing to meet population demand
- Low trust in business
- Inequalities in wealth threaten social cohesion in the long run

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Good to see someone bringing attention to our weaknesses. For some reason the media only seem to highlight the things we do well. I was shocked to find that NZ is seen as a worse place for mining than DRC. How low can you get?
https://rogerwitherspoon.wordpress.com/2018/04/04/frazer-institute-rate…

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To be fair DRC let you use children so they are very flexible from a business point of view.

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There are some very important points in that list.

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Except the international experience bit which in my view leads to all sorts of problems!!!!!!!!

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We cannot blame those who leave NZ for good for greener pasture as businesses here tend to be cost-conscious more than quality-focused. They would much rather pay lower to a subpar worker who would deliver a barely-acceptable output than pay a premium for an accomplished individual with good credentials.

I know several Singaporeans here in NZ who have studied at world class universities like LSE and Nanyang but had a hard time proving to potential NZ employers as to why they are worth the extra dime.

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After a decade US shale continues to not fail despite predictions. "The average new well in each region in 2017 produced more oil than wells drilled in previous years in those same regions, a trend that has persisted for nearly ten consecutive years."
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36012

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The Permian basin in the USA was number two in world reserves next to Saudi. The USA has 100 years of gas reserves. Cost of production has fallen %40 in a few years, if oil prices go higher, there will be even more exploration and technological break throughs.

https://www.amazon.com/Energy-World-Flat-Opportunities-Peak-ebook/dp/B0…

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Having actually read through all of TransPower's scenarios (following yesterday's alert, I think that their naming of, and working through, the four scenarios is Food for Thought.

Interest, perhaps a Friday Riff on these is worth considering?

The four:

  1. NZ Inc - ‘NZ Inc’, which was selected as the demand base case scenario, assumes a positive global context with mid-range economic and population growth as forecast by Treasury and Stats NZ. Climate change progresses, inequality continues to increase and there is increasing geopolitical instability, but New Zealand and the rest of the world continue approximately along their current courses. Policy encourages decarbonisation and electrification of transport and industry. New Zealand’s energy sector becomes more complex but avoids major risks that could disrupt a successful transformation.
  2. Vibrant Haven: The global assumptions for the ‘Vibrant Haven’ scenario are similar to the base case scenario, but New Zealand’s performance is relatively better than the performance for the rest of the world. Climate outcomes are more benign here. Land, water, value-added exports and innovation allow continued economic advancement. Geographic isolation protects New Zealand from the worst effects of geopolitical instability. New Zealanders living overseas return, along with migrants seeking a safe haven that is more protected from increasing global risks. Population grows to reach about 10 million by 2050. Energy demand is higher as a result, and that, combined with electrification, means electricity demand almost triples by 2050.
  3. Mobilise Demand: The ‘Mobilise’ scenario has a similar context of increasing climate change effects and geopolitical instability, except that the world changes course. A more vigorous and concerted effort to reduce global emissions and greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere comes about with the recognition that the combination of decarbonisation and geoengineering will be insufficient to protect against risks of unacceptably disruptive climate change. A motivation to reduce consumption emerges as societies focus more on environmental risk reduction and preserving well-being, becoming more discerning about the quality rather than just the quantity of economic growth. Wasteful production and consumption are curtailed. This results in a broader global economic transformation, with growth continuing, but more slowly than for the ‘NZ Inc’ and ‘Vibrant Haven’ scenarios. Under the ‘Mobilise’ scenario, technological advancement slows. Existing and emerging technologies are deployed but ‘futuristic’ technologies are not.
  4. Struggling Alone:- The ‘Struggling Alone’ scenario was developed to understand the implications of a more disrupted future with even less favourable climate, geopolitical and technological outcomes. Under this scenario, Globalisation reverses as countries become more concerned with protecting the availability of resources, leading to investments in self-sufficiency and a shift to bilateral trade relationships that emphasise securing access to food, energy, critical material resources and security rather than access to markets. Under the ‘Struggling Alone’ scenario, New Zealand’s economic growth reverses after 2030.
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The difficulties of "value adding" in remote locations. Australia's largest cattle company mothballs 3 year old Darwin abattoir.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2018-05-23/aaco-closes-livingstone-bee…

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Bitcoin will continue to tumble. People have been offloading stacks of graphics cards and no doubt many crypto miners are selling everything now that many people have lost interest. There was a significant decline in graphics cards sales by AMD and NVidia in April.

How long until the next round of marks put their life savings into cryptos?

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So less sales of graphics cards means bit coin will tumble? I love the nocoiners therory's may as well stick to your gold coins.

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I hope it means RAM will be cheaper

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Bitcoin is pure gambling, and there is no reason behind it's ups and downs.though the effect of a spam attack on the mining software would be interesting.

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Bitcoin Gold double spend attack top of HN atm: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17138356

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