Barfoots says the Auckland property market ended 2018 edging towards its first decline in prices for ten years. Sales volumes were weakest in at least 17 years

Barfoots says the Auckland property market ended 2018 edging towards its first decline in prices for ten years. Sales volumes were weakest in at least 17 years
ID 89356894 © Rafael Ben Ari | Dreamstime.com

The December 2018 data from Barfoots is out and they are painting a restrained picture.

The Auckland property market ended the year edging towards its first decline in prices for ten years. 

“In the past few months the tide has turned towards it becoming a buyers’ market,” said Peter Thompson, Managing Director of Barfoot & Thompson.

“The over-riding market sentiment at present is indecision as to the direction the market is heading."

 In December, Barfoots only sold 504 properties, the lowest for a December since 2008.

“A range of factors contributed to market uncertainty at year end. These included non New Zealand residents being restricted from buying certain categories of property, the reported major decline of property prices in the major Australian cities, the potential for capital gains to be applied to investment properties in the future and concerns over world economic stability, in part caused by the trade friction between the United States and China," said Thompson.

The ending market weakness is emphasised because for all of 2018, they sold +8.1% more propeties than in 2017.

However, the median price at $836,792 in all of 2018 was down -0.8% on that for all of 2017. This is the first time the median price has fallen below that for the previous year since 2008, the year the impact of the Global Financial Crisis affected house prices.

Prices at the lower end of the market, those under $500,000, kept volumes ticking over. In 2017, Barfoots reported 8.9% of their sales under $500,000 but in 2018 that rose to 11.4% of all sales. They say this increase can be linked directly to the higher number of apartments, terraced housing and town houses hitting the market, giving first time buyers and those on limited incomes far better access to property.

Barfoots ended the year with 4,194 listings, about the same level they started at. They listed 16,963 propeties in the full twelve months and sold 9,659 in 2018. That compares with 18,122 listed in 2017 and sales on 8,947 of them. Their drop-out rate fell in 2018 to average 13.5%, compared to 17.7% in 2017.

Their weak ending will be a concern at other Auckland realtors as well. A fuller, more complete picture of the Queen City market will need to await the REINZ data in about two weeks. Barfoot's holds about a dominant 45% market share in the city.

And in both 2016 and 2017, January sales were lower for Barfoots than in December, so the risk may be to the downside.

Barfoot Auckland

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hahaha ... lol ...

20
up

"Auckland property market limp"

I swear, this doesn't usually happen ...... just give me a moment

Auckland property market limp.................must be joking............. it is CRAWLING...............

10
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We have a pill for that - phorenbeyerz ... but its just been banned.

LMAO !! That just made my day...

DGMs are getting their cheap thrills today hahaa. DGM means ever hopeful, envious losers motivated by greed.

Completely agree with you.. but grapes are sour.. hahaha

Oh the irony of a property speculator accusing others of greed.

.

a

So the market limping along isn’t what Zachariah DubleGRizzle & TootThePint predicted
How could it come to pass

Who is this DGM?

Doom & Gloom Merchants.

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18
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And the effects of the Foreign buyer ban have only just started to be felt.. And didn't the Anti-money laundering stuff kick in on Jan 1st? Next few months are going to be interesting.

Yes, kicks in 1/1/19 for Real Estate Agents. This Anti-Money laundering stuff is pretty heavy!

What do I have to do to comply with the AML/CFT Act?

verify the identity of clients

verify the identity of purchasers who pay cash deposits of $10,000 or more. In some circumstances (such as if they represent a company or trust), you may also need to ask for information about where money came from and the other people involved.

Submit a Prescribed Transaction Report to the Police Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) if a client wants to conduct a transaction in cash that is $10,000 or more, or an international wire transfer of $1000 or more

Monitor customers’ accounts to identify potential warning signs of money laundering and terrorism financing. You must report any suspicious transactions or activity to the FIU

regularly review your risk assessment and compliance programme

have your risk assessment and compliance programme audited regularly

submit an annual report to the Department of Internal Affairs, which will supervise your sector.

https://www.justice.govt.nz/justice-sector-policy/key-initiatives/aml-cf...

.

Real estate agents have been given this responsibility? Will they receieve any specific training? How is a REA supposed to do the following:

Monitor customers’ accounts to identify potential warning signs of money laundering and terrorism financing. You must report any suspicious transactions or activity to the FIU

Yes, it's crazy. Lawyers and Conveyancers had to comply from 1 July 2018 and now 1/1/19 is REA's.

6 Months extra to train RE agents.. sounds about right :)

Might start seeing more honest hard working REAs.

Interesting reading https://bit.ly/2CU7T4Q

Pragmatic for sure
My wise Chinese neighbour had his Auckland properties on the market as soon as Van loads of his counterparts arrived from the airport with clipboards & interpreters to attend auctions
He Sold & I followed his great lead & sold for even more
Sadly some here are living in the past using yesterday’s paradigm to support their assertions
You buy low & Sell High you do not buylow & sit & let a peak market price drift away
Zachary will be fixing computer hardware for years to come along with maintenance of rentals
Life is Time do not waste it
P.S; of course this is Auckers so you all are so mighty clever my wisdom is wasted

SPIN THAT!

18
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If Barfoots admit that house prices are easing then you can multiply their warning by several multiples.
Auckland, and later other centes, are going to go the way of Sydney & Melbourne made worse by new and proposed anti residential investment regulations pushed by the Loonie Left.
Watch for sale listings increasing, rents rising, and more builder/develoers going bust.
Sell now or lose later. It's that simple.

If the "new and proposed anti residential investment regulations" are having such effect - makes you wonder how valid property investment is as an investment strategy. An investment should stand on it's own two feet - after all property investment is a business - and a business can't perpetually run at a loss.

Correct - If Barfoot is coming out of denial Mode (Do they have choice). It simply means that it is going to get worse from here on.

Many who have bought in last 2 years, for fast money, are now ready to a hit (Minimize their lose) and those still thinking or positive will be worst unless have holding capacity for few years.

Key word being'' EDGING''.

Nothing to see here.

15
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Maybe they overdid it with the edging and that's why it's gone a bit limp.

The difference between Barfoots November and December reports are worrying. If this was a listed company , questions would be asked, or not.
( David , your December numbers do not match the tools data ? )

19
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Why does an omni-positive market insider suddenly sound a bit cautious on the Auckland market? It's not because he has an interest in providing a balanced view to the punters. It's to avoid looking stupid in a few months time. Therefore, this is pretty ominous.

If the headline says that 'Auckland property market limp' based on Barfoot data and what its managing director is saying '“In the past few months the tide has turned towards it becoming a buyers’ market,” can understand how bad the situation is and how much worse it could go.

12
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Wow, have to agree with BD comment. Peter Thompson looks to be laying the ground for their data due out shortly which will be the start of a lot of ugliness for the stupidly leveraged. Leverage can indeed work in both directions. All new cars and overseas trips on the way up, cancer and divorce causing on the way down.

Also agree that the new anti money laundering will bring a chill wind

Both lines on the graph are showing house prices falling into a range since the end of 2016, I expect to see them stay in that range for 5 years unless something external causes either a big fall or a breakout.
I think there may be an easing but with levels of high immigration, I can not see a major quick fall

...once the panic sets in there will be a rush to the exits, I reckon a major quick fall is more likely than not. There are only bubbles holding up this mess......don't forget that.

When the price starts declining then people will look at Aussie and say "hmm maybe that could happen here" and then the panic will make it so.

Limp as a moist noodle.

10
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Not even a tennny wenny bit surprised.
Lets open the door and bring in another million immigrants....that'll be the answer of the nitwits.

I'm very glad that interest.co.nz is not into the clickbait of the NZH, https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=121...

'“The over-riding market sentiment at present is indecision as to the direction the market is heading."

Wrong - market has decided the direction and is only a matter of time when one accept.

Also now mentioning number of reason for the slow down but as per same expert the market should go up as Interest rates are all time low. Just imagine what would happen if and when the interest rates starts to move up in current scenario.

Imagine what will happen when interest rates go down...

Yvil , RBNZ will cut OCR this year , banks may not necessarily cut mortgage rates .

Imagine what will happen when the RBNZ increases capital requirements, as they have discussed.

...And increases risk weightings for residential property investment.

FWIW: CoreLogic value for my home as at 30/12/18 was 95.65% of the 2017 CV. That’s down $109,000 from a couple of months ago. Multiply that across Auckland, ramp it up a bit and hopefully we have the beginnings of a slump that will take the COL out in 2020.

10
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What, so that some fool government can again open the door to foreign buyers and again see housing become totally unaffordable for people? Don't think people will want that repeated.
Mind you, they were somewhat on the retreat after having been stymied from home some time before this govt took office, not altogether sure how Labour and NZF wangled that one with the Chinese govt.

Ex Expat, ,out of curiosity when did the QV peak in percentage terms .?

What's a QV? lol

HahahahHahahhHhahaahahagaa LOLOL I think it was a typo.

Cowpat, short answer is that I’m not sure. Core Logic had my home at 101% of 2017 CV late last year (can’t be bothered checking my older posts for the exact dates). I wouldn’t be surprised if it was higher at some stage but I’m not sure when my bank started providing the data on its app.

Anyone want to put a prediction where it will be on 31/12/19? Kohimarama, single site, 2017 CV $2,500,000.

Ex Expat, I predict it will land at 87% of 2017 CV. I think the upper end will be hit hardest. Anyway, its of no consequence to either of us how deep the discounts go.

Yvil, what percentage do you think?

He wont fall for that loaded question rp

ExExpat, by what percentage do you believe your property will have fallen by years end? Houseworks, what about you? It's only a prediction and it's no big deal!

That is a false assumption rp, are you expecting your property to have fallen by years end and by how much? If you are fatalistic about the outcome you will probably give up trying or hoping for the best. Unlike you I dont live on the edge of my seat or navel gaze about the current value although from time to time its nice to check it. It's a pleasant surprise, not a nasty shock

Nah it’s Expat lives on the edge of his seat over the spot price.

Expat the excuses are already set with a huge share market downturn and Aus/China growth falling. . .

The COL will focus on the fact that they have been reducing debt for just this point in time, and Winnie will lock down immigration when unemployment starts going up and they will get another term. Also it was national that the house prices went out of whack which is another excuse

Unfortunately Clark and Cullen were worse. 100% rise nationwide against National's 63%. Labour want to get re-elected too. Both parties have failed miserably with regard to house price inflation and excessive immigration.
https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/qv-house-price-index

Which party had the luxury of hindsight? Which party campaigned on tackling the issue of their predecessor only to fail miserably? Let’s be realistic here.

Which party campaigned on homes for all and building 100,000 new ones, only to fail miserably?

I 100% agree. But we are talking about who is more guilty of house price inflation. Kiwibuild was an attempt at tackling the affordability issues. A rubbish attempt, but at least it is an attempt.

Ex-Expat,

Of course they won’t get anywhere near that target and Twyford doesn’ Impress me,but the last not refused to acknowledge that there was a problem. Indeed,their immigration policy vastly exacerbated the problem. They deserved to be booted out.

Exactly. My point was that while National deserved The Boot, the Labour track record is actually worse. What to do? We seem to have two intractable problems with immigration and housing. It is in the interests of the political classes that they go up, but we subtly destroy our society in the process.

In business this is called shareholder dilution.

You can’t compare percentages. You need to compare absolute gains or link to some third index like income.

If I increase something by 100% and you then increase it by 50% then we’ve increased it by the same amount. Plus if x+100% is unaffordable then x+100%+50% is super unaffordable.

That’s correct. In dollar terms the 63% is a greater increase. $200,000 + 100% = $400,000 or +$200k.

Then a 63% increase on $400,000 is an additional $252,000.

Spot on, Rodger absolute terms is what actually maters not %.

Under National Auckland prices went up 500k from 0.5m to 1m. So under National prices went up by as much as every other government before them combined.....

Thankfully they got booted out just in time.

I am far from certain that the underlying assumption of zero inflation over almost two decades is correct.

What is correct is to compare percentage gainsdue to the effects of price and wage inflation overy tI'm. . Switching to absolute numbers because it suits your partisan viewpoint is silly.

Great that so many can get so much excitement from the article!
If you think it is a game changer for you to be able to buy a home in Auckland then I am extremely p,eased for you!
Reality is that housing I. Auckland is high and rental returns are poor unless you ave ownered tne Rental for a few years!
What this will do plus the other things that this so-called government is doing is going to make rentals more expensive In Auckland!
The market in Christchurch is still very sound and returns plus demand is still high.
Investors in Auckland should be buying in ChCh as the market is going to be good for many years due to the growth that ChCh is experiencing!
Be in!!

12
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the boy 2 ...... CHC will follow .....sorry to burst your "self interest" bubble

You are so wrong and it doesn’t affect seasoned professional investors, one iota anyway.
Makes it easier to buy for yield!!

the boy 2 ....what about those capital gains that turn into "capital losses" ?

Sorry TM2 CHC is not going so great. I wish it were as I'm a property owner now.

Rents are dropping. I recently moved out of a $480/wk rental in CHC after 3 years of no rent increases. RE company listed it with the same rent but it was still vacant when I moved out. Then they listed it for $450/wk, i.e. 6.25% less. So much for the landlord lobby group telling us no letting fee would raise rents. Seems like your yields would be dropping 2% every year even without capital losses.

In addition there are FOR LEASE signs everywhere on offices and shops. Long time land bankers are selling en mass. Anecdotally I've found there are few job opportunities as well.

Oh and I almost forgot the biggest one; Capital gains are down the toilet.

Happy days.

Also rates for AirBnB are pathetic in Chch - its not even worth putting your place up for short term letting. That's how bad the rental over supply is. Its the fault of the insurers for not requiring homes to be fixed - instead people got their EQC payout, used it to buy a brand new home, and then put the old unrepaired property up for rent.

On the other hand my work mates in their early 30s can actually afford to buy a house and have kids. Or if they rent the landlord has to cough up for those small improvements like heat pumps that add comfort. That must really annoy economic parasites like the boy 2.

"The median price at $836,792 in all of 2018 was down -0.8% on that for all of 2017. This is the first time the median price has fallen below that for the previous year since 2008"

That is why property is such a good long-term investment + the fact that if you know what you're doing, you can easily beat the average.

The important word there is 'long term'. I think it will be a poor short-medium term investment from here. Long term might be ok for those buying today, but unlikely to be anywhere near as good as in the past.

IMO, property investment is only long-term, otherwise it's speculation

Yvil, what percentage do you predict Auckland house prices will decline by December 2019? Step up and make your own prediction without doing any more flip flops.

.

.

So all those people buying with 2-3% gross yield were doing so as an "investment"... ???

When even short term deposit rates are higher... ???

It is all about holding-power. I intend to hold my paid-for property forever. But if you are leveraged, this decreases your ability to do so exponentially.

But I was told earlier today that you need to buy with maximum leverage and so long as its an income generating asset you'll be fine... :)

Wasn't me tho ;)

Yvil - Seems everyone has got excited about this article drop is minimal to date. People have short memories ! It is entirely expected the market will have a correction it always does in this part of the cycle. How much guessing 7 to 12 % who knows but all I know is everytime I buy in the trough within 7 years I have doubled my money. DGM's will say it will never happen again I say watch and see. 2020/2021 market will slowly recover people will make money DGM's will get even more anti as they miss the boat again !

Shoreman, Yvil, yours is more of a wish than reality. Perhaps it's your psyche that's under attack from the inevitable. I also suspect your both sweating it out in growth funds after ignoring DGM warnings about that too.....

As the market further weakens, in due desperation, you'll resort to calling property a longer and even loooonger term investment.

The sums just ain't so pretty when what you owe is rising in value in contrast to shrinking valuations.

R P, I'm happy with your bearish comment, given your catastrophically bad forecasting history. (I'm happy to post your forecast for 2018 if you wish)

...if it will turn you on - do it :) Where's your forecast for 2019? Yours and Agent TTP's timely absence, after panning the forecasts of others all of 2018, was predictable and a little cowardly. Time for some self reflection, don't you think?

Here are Rp's predictions for 2018

by Retired-Poppy | Sun, 31/12/2017 - 09:37
Here's my predictions for 2018 but I hope somehow the good times keep rolling and I'm proved wrong!

1/ September quarter shows negative growth driven by drought and weaker consumer spending, backdrop of lower interest rates but much tighter lending conditions.
2/ NZX-50 falls to 6100 by December.
3/ Auckland property prices fall another -5% by December, nationwide -2%. Provinces following Auckland - down.
4/ Realestate.co.nz total Auckland listings at 16,200 by November 30.
5/ NZ Government deficit -3% GDP on increased spending, tax take projections weaken.
6/ September quarter CPI comes in at 0%, evil word “deflation” is again uttered. RBNZ will have lowered OCR rate to 1.50% by years end.
7/ Official unemployment rate rises steadily to stand at 6.75% by December. Unofficial rate double that.
8/ US 10-year bond at 2.50, 30-year 2.25% by December
9/ US Dow plunges from new August high 27000 to 18000 in October, US looks to be again entering recession by December. Officials at pains to say this is a “healthy” correction……
10/ Trump still president, US warships visible from North Korea beaches - its a blockade. China distracted with its invasion of Taiwan.

and here was my prediction for 2018:

by Yvil | Mon, 01/01/2018 - 20:40
Thanks RP
I think 2018 will be "more of the same" and less different to 2017 than many think. I.e, NZ property prices will still be flat (but I know you have a different view)
The "thanks RP" refers to RP's comment that he thought I had the best prediction the year before.

RP's predictions are above, anyone can choose who they rather listen to...

Yvil, are you feeling better now? Its startling the lengths you will go for self gratification. Anyway, your predictions change depending on the sentiment of the article. Here's one classic example.

Posted by Yvil | Fri, 04/05/2018 - 13:36
"It's much better than the long slow downward spiral we're on now, which will still lead to a depression"
https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/93542/patrick-watson-says-free-market...

My holding you to account is clearly getting up your nose. Thats said, still waiting on your predictions for 2019. That's presuming you've got the courage to do it.

If Kiwibuild price for a new standard-type 3 bed home is $650K, wouldn't that set a significantly lower price expectation for many existing 3 bed homes in suburbs developed in the 1970s-1980s?

Given the 1990s builds are generally lumped into the poor quality build/possibly leaky category - I'd have an expectation that sales of existing properties at or below the median CV will head downwards at the greatest rate.

Hopefully, FHBs are thinking about this. It's certainly a time to be cautious if a median or below median price bracket buyer, particularly if one only has the min 10% deposit. That could be literally wiped out inside a year if one pays near the 2017 CV.

Not if the existing homes have actual yardspace, garaging etc. The kiwibuild places in Auckland only come with a postage stamp bit of lawn, a concrete pad to park your car on. The yard is so small you may as well just go to an apartment with a balcony, and not have to worry about mowing and weeding etc.

Haha RP fact is I'm rich by ignoring comments that people like you make let's just see how the next few years play out and we will all get to see the truth.

Shoreman, on an anonymous forum, anyone can roleplay the rich and successful using words. As of late you've done this more than most. Any reason? Feeling a little vulnerable perhaps?

That is something you accused me of too hahah if "anyone" can roleplay the rich and successful investor why is it you roleplay the overly conservative, really dumb "investor". I wouldn't want to be you if it means justifying myself here

Shoreman, just a slight caveat... there isn't a single alleged "DGB" commentator on this website that has ever suggested not to ever buy property. The majority have said that the property market was in a bubble and to wait until the bubble burst. Which is exactly in line with what you say when you describe your own stated investment strategy of "buying in the trough".

There are some people on this website who think that there are better investment vehicles than property and there are even more than a few people who have stated that *some* property investors have displayed amoral behaviour. However, we don't really have any property permabears. Just people who have been wrong about how long the bubble could survive.

"Just people who have been wrong..."

Good spotting gingern

...anyway where are the "purveyors" of those fine Auckland 'leafy suburbs' to chime in and say that their properties are 'bullet proof' to any downturn ???

will the RBNZ now relax LVR's more?
I am betting yes, especially for FHB to steady the bottom of the market

Certainly not now but they probably would if house prices started dropping significantly more, also easing the LVR's

I think **if** we are seeing the start of a global recession, we will see 0% central banks rates again within the year and maybe even negative rates. We may also see completely new creative measures hitherto unseen.

"The leaders of the world’s largest countries are dangerously unprepared for the consequences of a serious global slowdown, a senior executive at the International Monetary Fund has warned.

In particular, governments will find it hard to use fiscal or monetary measures to offset the next recession, while the system of cross-border support mechanisms — such as central bank swap lines — has been undermined, warns David Lipton, the first deputy managing director of the IMF".

https://www.ft.com/content/be788ab6-11c2-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e

I agree Ginga, "IF" a recession looms, governments and central banks will do whatever it takes to avoid it, whether the measures taken will be "fair" or not (I think these measures won't be fair), just like government bailouts are not fair

Yvil, "if" a recession looms? Really? You've already predicted we are all sliding into a depression last May! Do you stand by your prediction or not?

Yvil, "fair" is a tricky one and often based on value judgments or ideology.

I think some of the headwinds facing the world economy currently are (to an extent) unintended or poorly managed consequences of good intentions. The GFC could have been managed better but it could also have been much, much worse. Even with the benefit of hindsight it is difficult to know what the optimal and fairest response to the GFC would have been. I have my personal opinions but they are as speculative as everyone else's, when you are dealing with a system as complex and multi faceted as the global economy, everyone's a f&%king expert but no one can ever truly know how a crisis will play out and how fair or successful it will be judged to have been.

Agreed, fairness is very much in the eye of the beholder. My view is that government bailoutS of private companies are not "fair" because it means working people are paying for the failure of a company through their taxes. IMO capitalism (enjoy the fruits of your success and pay the price for your failures) was lost when the US government bailed out "companies too large to fail". I think they should have let them fail, the whole lot, yes it would have led to huge job losses and a depression but we would, by now, have recovered. Now the bailouts have led to massive debt, stagnating wages, unhappy workers and the economy is unwell. Also an expectation that the next downturn will be saved by the governments and central banks and paid for by the working class, not fair IMO

I'm browsing the Eastern Bays currently, Kohi, St Heliers & Remuera and some of the discounts are quite amazing compared to 12 months ago, almost nothing going to auction, listed prices, negotiable prices, some below CV, one was even $2mil below CV! Since the Chinese have been shown the door there are very few who have the funds to buy in the $3mil plus range and it's only going to get a lot worse for those selling.

I live in the eastern suburbs. Prices look about 10% down overall, some 15-20% down, but some steady or even a little up.

Well many of us thought the FBB would have a significant effect. Just shows what a load of bullshit Key's mob were peddling.

Agree. FBB and its strengthening with the money laundering change will hammer the top in AKL. These areas will always be above the average but they were way way over reality. Tracked dozens of houses over the last 18 months all asking $5-6m. None sold and all tracking on website modeling and area sales at millions less than ask.

If you have specuvested to your limit and the equity in your family home drops by a million or more be prepared for equity discussions with your bank(s). Good luck.

Similar to what is happening in Melbourne, while overall city prices are down 7% the inner eastern posh suburbs are down 15%.

“There was a chance of a slight market correction this year as it was becoming more of a buyers' market compared to this time last year,” he said.

That’s it right there. Brace yourself for the data to follow.

SYD is down 11.1% since it’s 2017 high. Remember incomes are considerably higher there. There is only one direction AKL is heading.

Time to stop fooling yourselves and accept a falling market. ..

Can we shelve kiwibuild for 6 months and revisit then?

Exactly Hamish, demand for overpriced, lower quality product a long way from the centre will be non-existent. Which is why I believe Phil Fool Twyford will start subsidizing homes, after all KB is one of this govts flagship policies.

Not all a long way from the centre - in Wellington and the Hutt two apartment complexes are planned. I think they should possibly include retirees (65+ age group) for the apartments as many retirees will in future like to downsize to maintenance free but availability of that type of housing (aside from retirement villages) are limited.

In Auckland, the KB developments are mostly waaaay out.

Standalone houses in Papakura are. But Onehunga, Mt Albert, Otahuhu apartments aren't. Neither is the Mt Roskill/Owairaka stuff that is planned.

Kiwibuild shouldn't be building standalone houses within 5kms of the inner city, it needs to be higher density if its that close in.

There is one sure thing that will happen this year. Auckland and Christchurch house prices will continue to drift down slowly but surely at the very least.

...but but but gordon ! ....the boy 2 has already said above, that Christchurch is "immune" from any outside influences, of any kind !

You sure he wasn't talking about his thought processes? They do appear to be immune from any outside influences.. Reality being one of those outside influences.

agree Pragmatist .."the boy 2" must have an extreme amount of "skin in the game" when it comes to Christchurch property....so with that, comes down the blinders to any "reality" that may affect his property mantra.

If he has "an extreme amount of "skin in the game", he must be extremely wealthy

No, it could also mean he's highly leveraged and very prone to be quickly scalped if the market moves against him. And he has said hes is a fan of lots of leverage before.

OK, you go buy $10 or $20 Million dollars worth of properties, keep me posted how you go ; )

You will need to put in at least 35 percent, probably more, depending on the net cashflow .... with that much "skin" I cant see very many residential investors going broke this cycle

But you can't see beyond the end of your self-interest at the best of times.

WhyTF would I do that? I have no desire to be a slumlord, I'll buy a place to live in then invest in productive industries rather than being a leech.

Yes he certainly has been a lot angrier of late which probably comes from his falling capital values. The angrier he gets the worse his spelling and grammar gets.

I'm just wondering how many !!! we get to at the end of every sentence before he blows a gasket.

Its not immune from more earthquakes.

12
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Not surprised at all. See all my previous comments last year and recent prediction for this year. That's the first comment I've seen by an agency admitting the Australian situation is expected to have an impact here. Both countries have been in massive bubbles, and bubbles never have soft landings. That's the bottom line. Timing is difficult but expect a long trend down when it turns - 25-30% from peak to trough. Back to some $500k houses in Auckland. Cheaper with mortgagee sales.

I can see it all turning ugly and predict those agents and spruikers will be nowhere to be seen!

Gordon, stop it, you are getting me depressed!
Reality is that ChCh prices aren’t dropping and won’t either!
Keep your stirring up Gordon, it just shows everyone just how jealous some old people can get!!!

I am younger than you The Boy and a lot more adventurous when I compare my variety of investments against your as is where is stuff. By the way I have just got back from Europe. I took the entire family over there for a white christmas. Beats your cheap Gold Coast trips.

Christchurch won't escape the downturn, even though other places have gone up a lot more. ChCh has been dropping slightly in places for a while. Here's a good reminder: people thought Perth had finished with it's big decline after the mining boom ended a few years ago, but no it's dropped still further with Melbourne and Sydney.

How on earth do you know that you are younger than “The Man” when you appear to be an old fellah?
As I have told you previously we do have plenty of equities but not thru our investing!
Good on you for going to Europe Gordon, you need to tick things off your bucket list!
Not sure I would have gone in their winter though?
Love the GC Gordon, done many other countries I. The world and you can not beat Australasia!!

I thought CHCH had been in the toilet for 5 years?

I’m actually bullish on Christchurch. More businesses should move there for the low house prices. It makes a city more competitive.

Hmm, just saw this data reported on Bloomberg Global news. I wonder how widely this is being reported.

AKL is part of the global property market and it is all going south. New York, London, Hong Kong, Beijing, Sydney is all down for various reasons.

The peripheral areas tend to fall further. It’s an interconnected market.

Property prices on an inflation related basis will struggle to appreciate in real terms over the next 5/10/20 years.

The golden era is over but a lot depends on demographics and supply/demand.

Aussie will be carnage.

But... but... but... you can't lose with houses!

Mate?

I live very comfortably in Mt Maunganui and have no skin in the Auckland market. However,my son and daughter in law bought a property in Meadowbank less than 2 years ago for nearly $2m. It’s really nice 4 bed property and they are well able to afford the mortgage,but I regard the price as ludicrous.
We used to live in one of Glasgow’s best suburbs and for that money,you get a much larger home and considerably more ground.
For their sake,I hope prices do not fall far but I fear that over the next few years they may well do so.

Yes, but Glasgow?

not a very good picture in Sydney, but was this not an inevitable outcome when house prices rise so high so fast beyond normal economic fundamentals
The federal election campaign is set to be run against a backdrop of falling property prices with warnings of a further 7 per cent drop in some Sydney home values this year
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/house-prices-will-tank-throu...

Buy High Cry Low is nowhere to be seen on this thread? ha ha

He'll be too busy organising BBQs.

It's always good to develop an alternative skill set

I think some of you should go to Australia and look at what the asking prices would buy you. Its no good just looking at the numbers. If you saw how ridiculously overpriced the places were in relation for what you got then even the most sane person would say there was potential for a 50% price drop on even an entry level property. is Auckland overpriced ? Yes at the top end, by like 50% but not at the bottom end by that amount. Thats why those with high end property, connected to people at the top offering financial advice bailed out of the market a year ago.

Yes, lets compare...

https://www.domain.com.au/lot-2547-new-road-springfield-lakes-qld-4300-2...

vs

https://www.trademe.co.nz/property/residential-property-for-sale/auction...?

Both about 30ish kms from respective CBDs, both new builds. $519K AUD is a bit under $550K NZD at todays rates, so the Aussie home is $100k cheaper. And has internal access double garage, Aircon, Media room, about three times the land area, 4 bedroom, as opposed to the 3+ study that the kiwibuild place really is.

Not much of a comparision really, much better value for money over there.

Edit: Oh,. actually didn't look at the kiwibuild ad when I posted this. These stage 2 kiwibuilds are better than the first lot. The fourth bedroom is almost decent sized, and the they look like they have a much better sized yard due to going to two storey for about the same overall floor area. Still sorta rubbish, one combined toilet and bathroom for a four bedroom house? Could at least separate the toilet and bathroom. Still rubbish compared to the Aussie house.

Not to mention that these KB properties are priced about 30k below the average selling price for similar properties in that area. .

So that makes the aussie property at least 130k cheaper

Not sure there is anything comparable. There are older established homes, or much better specced new builds.

As I walked to Meadowbank train station this morning I passed two 60- something gents. One of them said to the other, in a slightly surprised and slightly concerned manner 'she reckons there's going to to a decent housing correction'.
Don't underestimate the fear factor that can creep into the hordes.

Not hordes....these are the few % of BBs that own the property.

I certainly am concerned about the "side" effects, ie the events that cause the correction and the events after, triggered by it ie the paper loss in property value is really immaterial unless its debt funded and they want (all) their money back.

No one needs to worry about the financial position of most seasoned property investors,
Personally, yes we owe a bit but when you own more than the Bank owns, and your returns are in excess of 9%, let’s just say that our returns are rather nice and our equity has made us rather comfortable.
Yes some will,say that the ChCh prices are dropping but I can assure you that they aren’t and won’t, but not that it worries me anyway!!

Hey Man, I thought you were in the debt-free property owning camp.

It is getting lonely at the top, fam.

Guwop, where have I ever said we were debt free?
You are blatantly not a great investor if you do not have debt and be leveraging!!!
I am never lonely!!!

Don't underestimate the power of leverage on the way down, Man...

It can (and will) crush families.

Don't fool yourself The Boy. You are very worried and that worry has made you the angriest person on this site. You hate this new fantastic government we have in place currently. You need to loosen up a bit as your anger will make you sick eventually especially as they probably have at least another term in power to go after the current one.

Gordon, Happy New Year to you and I hope you are all refreshed for what life throws at you this year!
I am fighting fit as I do not have to endure the worries that many have in their lives!
As for this so-called Government, they couldn’t govern anything and are going to totally set the country back by a long way!
KiwiBS is going to be just another dream that they had and Twyford will,have his smirk off his face by now!
As for another term? You are kidding! They are gone!
Doesn’t affect our investing whatsoever Gordon!
Life is all about taking your chances and that is what “The Man” does!!!

Who will be their leader and which new party will get them over the line? For a change think carefully and slowly before you respond The Boy?

Gordon, even you could lead National as the coalition have limited ability to achieve anything and will self destruct.
Every day we are hearing about struggling families financially and it is not going to get any better from this COL
Coalition of Losers

As I thought you cannot answer the questions as per usual. National has no leader and no mates. Another term at least.

No one needs to worry about the financial position of most seasoned property investors

Right, I assume someone as astute as yourself is well diversified, and doesn't have more than 50% of their net worth tied up in a regional, high risk, over-valued property market. You'll be fine.

I can assure you that I don’t have a single dollar invested in a high risk, over valued property market in Christchurch!,

Really? I thought you had most or all of your money invested in the high risk, over valued property market of Christchurch!,

Glad to see you've diversified.

The Chch property market is neither high risk nor overvalued!
The market is very stable unlike many other locations!!!

Surely and steadily decreasing in value every month.

Gordon, where is the evidence?
Stats aren’t saying that and I am not seeing that whatsoever, but the next few months will certainly prove that you are smoking something!!

According to the REINZ report released in December, Christchurch City is down 2.1% YoY or 3% MoM for November.

And you beleive everything that you read?
What it is saying is that’s first home buyers are pretty excited to be buying in ChCh!

No I don't believe everything I read, particularly when it's written by you!

yep, they are so excited the YoY sales volume in Canterbury in the last REINZ report was down -6.9% (seasonally adjusted its -9.2%) while the Canterbury median price was also down -3.3%. Go Canterbury!

The Chch property market is neither high risk nor overvalued!

You have no idea what you are talking about. I don't even think you know what those terms mean.

How on earth is ChCh property high risk?
When we are averaging over 9% return overall on our not insignificant portfolio of properties?
High risk of what? Earthquakes?
Totally insured apart from one “as is” property that we will get insurance on as no damage to it, and paid less than land value for it!
Gordon, on you co e with your normal “The boy” comments

I’ve read all your comments on this article The Man 2 and you are absolutely pooping in your undies.

Yes, no one needs to worry about financial position of property investors. If they have managed their risks and leverage appropriately, and have based their assets on rental cashflow that provides better returns than other investments instead of relying on capital gains and negative gearing, they will be fine. If they haven't, and get scalped by the falling market, then they would be exposed as speculators and no one needs to shed a tear for them.

But this is about much more than a speculators. Speculators'greed has driven house prices well beyond the fundamentals for young couples and families starting out, who have followed spruiking advice from everyone around them and have entered at the peak of the market within the last 4-5 years. They are now in a position to witness their hard earned deposits get wiped out, and fall into a negative equity trap..

Money Laundering.

Ban on Foreign buyer and new law on money laundering from 1st January should go a long way (Hopefully) in curbing money laundering and the direct result of all this will be in property market despite national party denying that foreign money and money laundering had any role in the last Boom that has just ended.

How much will the market fall, is to be seen. Currently market has fallen by 10% to 20% on an average (10% to 20% below RV and is just in 2 to 3 months) still some FHB who have been waiting are jumping (This is where the support is comming and holding slightly) - if FHB buyer is buying for very long term is fine or should wait as the story is not yet over but has just begun.

Fall will be much greater when people who have been waiting on sideline have entered and also speculators or so called investors who are not able to hold will go for deserate sell (May take some time as interest rates are low)

What market are you talking about? What evidence do you have that this market has fallen by 10% to 20%?

Yeah, can we get some factual evidence to prove this? This is not what I've seen... maybe 1 out of 10 sell for 10% below CV if the property is in really bad shape.

Why are lots of houses having their recent sales price hidden by the agents, aka $0 or TBC?

It seems to a lot more of a trend than in the past. I guess when you can no longer brag about the huge price tag associated. Though it will all come out in the data once its published but there's obviously a decent delay on that.

Question on Auckland property

In Auckland, there is a growing population, continuing inbound immigration, an undersupply of housing relative to demand, a strong economy, low unemployment & low interest rates. These fundamentals are the common justifications given for higher property prices, yet median house prices in Auckland are down 7% from their highs (about the same 8% drop during the GFC in 2008 / 2009). Can the Auckland property price bulls explain the reason for that divergence between fundamentals and price changes?

Let's say you have a house on the market for $1.2 million (CV). 10,000 people are standing infront of you each with a letter from the bank telling them they are pre-approved to borrow up to $500k along with their $150k deposit.

Which person do you sell the house to?

Nzdan......that house will not sell to anyone out of those 10,000 people and that is the situation that so many buyers are in at the moment ....however the paradox is that the vendors refuse to accept/ believe what their property is worth in the current market ....as I have screamed from the rooftops since the 80's I will scream it out again ..... A PROPERTY IS WORTH ONLY WHAT SOMEONE WILL PAY YOU FOR IT ! ....so for all you vendors out there, you have to "meet the market" otherwise you just will not sell .... ever !

The vendor better have 10,000 Tenancy Application Forms at hand then....

NZDan

Not sure I understand you fully. Just trying to understand your point and line of thinking more clearly - do you think that there are 10,000 people who want to buy the property below
1) at the vendor asking price of $1.2mn?
2) or at a price of $650,000? (pre-approved borrowing up to $500,000 plus $150,000 deposit)
3) other?

Here is a property on the market. The vendors are asking for approximately $1.2mn.
https://www.trademe.co.nz/property/residential-property-for-sale/auction...

It has a CV of $1.12mn - https://www.qv.co.nz/property/3-matai-road-oneroa-waiheke-island-1081/30...

FYI, in the area of Oneroa, there have been a total of 10 property transactions in the area over the last 3 months (so about 0.76 property transactions per week) - https://www.qv.co.nz/suburb/oneroa-waiheke-island-8651/sold

I’m surprised you put in so much thought and effort into a response to my sarcasm. I hoped the exaggeration would give it away.

Didn't pick up on your sarcasm.

I'm genuinely interested in understanding that if they continue to believe that population growth, inbound immigration, shortage of supply etc, results in higher property prices. Despite all these fundamentals, property prices are falling, and how do they reconcile that?

Refer - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Td35vcIj22c

Those factors can influence increasing property prices to a certain point but credit accessibility and affordability will limit that.

If you take my comment on a serious note, it basically implies the 10,000 people with $650k to spend are recent migrants who have been granted residency working in fairly low paying jobs. We can keep importing people but can they afford to buy the houses at their current prices?

In 2017-18, the buyer will use that $650,000 to buy the house and borrow another $550,000 from their home country (or leverage from another property after a revaluation).

Not sure how they would approach this same problem in 2019

NZDan, well I for one found your comment highly amusing!

That is a bit of an eye-sore