With GDP and immigration numbers due two days before the election, Alex Tarrant looks at which party is set to gain the most from media reaction to the figures. He reckons it's Labour

By Alex Tarrant

Thursday, September 21 could be an interesting day. It’s when Stats NZ releases the last big economic numbers before the September 23 election. We get Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the three months of April, May and June. We also get immigration numbers for the month of July.

Economists appear to be a bit wary of what the GDP release might throw up. Over the past month or so they’ve talked about softer-than-expected growth flowing through from a soft first quarter and final quarter in 2016. NZIER’s Christina Leung said this week that this still looks to be the case.

Others are a bit more upbeat. Friday’s strong June terms of trade figures – a whisker off a 44-year high – indicate growth could come in not as soft as first predicted. Strongish retail sales figures for the first half of the year also have BNZ economists picking “robust economic growth in Q2”.

Domestic businesses remain confident heading into the election. ANZ’s latest Business Outlook (ANZBO) survey showed healthy readings pointing to annual growth of 4%, although chief economist Cameron Bagrie said 3% sounds more feasible. ASB economists followed that line, reminding us that GDP growth has recently been coming in below what surveys like the ANZBO are pointing to.

The Reserve Bank is projecting a lofty 0.9% quarterly growth figure for the June quarter, which would be up from a ‘soft’ 0.5% in March and 0.4% in the December 2016 quarter. An improvement in global economic activity has supported the prices of New Zealand exports, the Bank notes in its August Monetary Policy Statement. And that should feed through to headline growth numbers.

But what if it doesn’t? Or what if we get a stonking above-expectations reading for the June quarter? Could either of these results impact on how people feel about political prospects post-September 23?

Firstly – let’s remind ourselves that Stats NZ is completely independent on this. It’s not their fault that the election fell two days after the date they had decided to release GDP figures. It’s just one of those things.

Nonetheless, the timing allows for a day-and-a-half of headlines – one morning and two evening news cycles for TV and the newspapers to decide how they interpret the figures. They will be the final pieces of the jigsaw required to compare National’s nine years with the fifth Labour government’s (current account will be on the 20th – but no one apart from us seems to pay any attention to that).

On immigration, we are likely to remain at very high levels of net inflow. If it’s another record, then look out for everyone going bonkers on it. If it’s not a record, it will still be very high, and likely a record for a July year. This will help the two parties who are talking about reducing our net inflow – NZ First and Labour.

On GDP, if growth is weaker-than-expected, I would expect coverage focussed on there being limp final three quarters to this electoral cycle at a time when our terms of trade are at record highs, and interest rates are at record lows – why can’t we find the growth?

This will allow for Grant Robertson to say now is time to change the way government interacts with the private economy – give Labour a chance to freshen things up by being more hands on and working with business to deliver growth. R&D will be talked about a lot. So will productivity. Conversations on both will favour Labour.

If growth is stronger-than-expected, obviously the flip side applies – National got us here from out of the financial crisis so what reason is there to turf them out? While this is a fair reaction, in a better-than-expected scenario there is also another option:

‘The economy is in good health – Jacinda Ardern even accepted this during Thursday’s debate. But why not let Labour have a go with its new ideas and values and whatnot? If it all turns to mush then we can turf them out in three years and return to a trusted operator. But we’ve got more upside risk with Labour.’

I would not be surprised at all to see this feed through into coverage on September 22 as people are encouraged out of the defensive economic mindsets we’ve been in under Bill English these nine years.

It will be more difficult for National to get cut-through with the ‘future Budget positivity’ mindset than for Labour after all that relentless messaging around zero Budgets, controlling deficits and holding our breath until we get to the surplus.

The big question is whether Labour can hold onto the momentum of the past month through the next three weeks of campaigning. Big question is can they steady the ship when it comes to National attacking them on tax – taking a tax cut off truck drivers to pay for middle-class children to access free university education, and that scary capital gains tax (to fix the housing crisis, apparently, although it won’t have any impact on the majority of properties).

If Labour can do all this, then by September 21 there is a greater chance that GDP and immigration figures will help cement its momentum than not – no matter what the readings are.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment or click on the "Register" link below a comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current Comment policy is here.

115 Comments

Has Labour discussed or pledged to reduce immigration?
If they are avoiding the topic for PC reasons then voters will assume Labour will keep the taps open wide. So no difference between National & Labour.
GDP: Since GDP overall figures don't help low wage workers, or those locked out of the hyperinflated houses, then do voters really care what the GDP is?
Since National & Labour are so similar in their policies and in their obeisance to the global system then they should form a coalition and put all the Small parties out in the cold.
The NZ voter has no real alternative to more of the same:

JA in the Leaders Debate said they'd cut immigration numbers to 20 to 30k. Also the type of immigrants to more specialised ones. English said he wanted to allow more kiwi fruit pickers, milkers, truck drivers and immigrants to build houses for them selves. You can watch the debate and lying to your face trump style English on TVNZ on demand.

Let's do this
Let's tax this
We will fix this
Blah blah blah
All fluffy talk no substance!

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Looks like you won't be able to kick your great aunt out of her home now nor arbitrarily bludge more money from your hard working tenants (who incidentally haven't had a proper salary increase for 9 years under your beloved National.)
Am so looking forward to hearing your whine when you actually have to start contributing to the future of NZ, not just your own greed.

Well said!

Let's get those National talking points out there! Repeat the mantra!

You know DGZ, some fools think that they are ( will be) immune to the taxes and the disaster that will happen to NZers at large because of the stupid ill designed, ill costed Labour policies ... they do not realise that Labour voters will be among all of us "consumers" and "customers" who will pay the water, petrol, road, CGT, and all other perpetual taxes in the pipe line ( like the one Mr Clarke slipped out of his big unmuzzled mouth today on Q&A) lol.... as well as the consequences of indirect taxes like canceling the negative gearing etc ...

The more they talk and explain the more they show us all the lack of substance and EXPOSE the flimsy team that will execute these policies in future ( God forbid) ....

Maybe they would better hide these untrained clowns or muzzle them until after the election to stop exposing themselves so much - its a circus to say the least ...!!

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Oh my goodness another 'astute' comment from interest.co's most prolific and pointless comment maker. Your lazy policies would have the real hard working kiwi just give YOU their hard earned money just because you're a boomer and the generations before you gave you a massive step up, by sacrificing their lives from the Nazis and Japanese Imperialism. Now you want the generations after you to be your serfs. Greed is ugly my friend and you are certainly one of the most greedy on this site.
Frankly I'll pay more to help the future of NZ and also just to see how more ridiculous and desperate your comments become. You're going to have to sacrifice one way or another and I'm loving it!

I love it how the left think they are all hard working and the right are all self entitled toffs... I can tell you now I'd rather be a small time home builder with a team of 4 than a middle management nob working for a NZX 50 company, the days of blue collar and white collar are over in New Zealand, what we have now are those that want to work and risk themselves and those that dont

what a self entitled comment...you have no idea what I do. But I know what you do, property investment. It's who you are, you bludge money from folk who for many reasons, didn't catch the break you did. But you justify your upping the rent, how did you put it once, by squeezing the money till their pips squeak... as I said before, greed is ugly,,, and as much as you think you do, you contribute nothing positive to society, price gouging is parasitic and you hurt people.

wasn't having a go at you, was just saying that people that vote for the left are not 'more hard working' than people who vote for the right, the new money is now with the tradies, as they make more money than lawyers, dentists and middle management noobs...

New money is with the tradies..really!!?? , yes some that are self employed do well yet very few across the entire industry. I can show you the working poor in the legal and building industries..and also the exceptional return of a few...number wise... very few.

I never met a plumber, builder or electrictian that didn't earn as much as me on an hourly wage, sure if your stacking shelves or delievering pizzas then you will be poor forever, but if you learn a skill and apply yourself you will be wealthy

Well that is a personal comment with no context we can deteremine...

If not self employed we are talking 55-90k range for a number of those occupations fully qualified..that is working poor unless you are older with property before the run up in prices and no student loans...

Those $18 bottles of water!!!!

You describe Labour as "untrained clowns", yet are National any better. National seem to have resorted to the to fear, uncertainty and doubt principle as it is quickly losing it's long held lead in the polls. This sort of action exposes National for what it is - shallow and with out any real idea of how to fix what matters to New Zealanders - it undermines their credibility ( and the loyal followers rabid defence isn't helping as well).

As Shamubeel Eaqub pointed out today it is no use being the best at "ease of doing business and relatively low levels of reported corruption " if our productivity is low. New Zealanders are renowned for working hard - is that now a good thing or a bad. I would argue the reason we work hard is because our productivity is so low and when we go overseas we take our bad habit's with us. We just become suckers for the company's we work for overseas.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/96411051/shamubeel-eaq...

If National had done a better job of improving productivity instead of fiddling while Rome burned, i.e importing labour to fill low paying jobs simply because it is cheaper than using technology to get the job done better and faster ( and now employers and addicted to low wage employees) , then maybe they would have more creditability.

The taxes that Labour are proposing attack the "lazy" economy. New Zealand needs to work smarter not harder.

New Zealand seems to have imported the same left v right rhetoric from overseas where each side is becoming more virulent with each passing month. I'm not pro-Labour - just ant-National. National have made promises which have not been kept and now the country is looking for a change. This seems uncomfortable for those on the right that a change of government is a real possibility in just under three weeks time.

At them moment Labour look like the best of a bad bunch.

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/09/decision-17-bill-english-...

National has introduced an average six new taxes every term over the last nine years, but Bill English is promising there won't be any more.

That's interesting eh. If the promises weren't kept the first time around what value have the promises made this time around?

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All National voters who insist (and it is always Nats ) that there is no real difference between Lab / Nat should have no problem switching their vote to Labour .
However for those actually interested in policy - the contrast could not be more obvious.
Labour's policies on Water, Foreign property speculators, Education, Health , Transport and fake education/immigration rorts are all points of difference worth voting for IMO.

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Agree. If National are re-appointed to hold the tiller, then everyone and anyone who has any concerns about immigration, housing, unaffordability, inequality, education, health, hospitals, transport, Auckland Gridlock, should from that moment on remain utterly silent for the next 2½ years until the next round

While Labour may be able to do better in these areas for NZers, as soon as a Govt moves to slow immigration, slow international students, spend on infrastructure, safeguard public institutions, ie act for their sovereign country, then they are under attack from the media, popular liberal philosophy', & global corporations who control the media etc.
The only way to stand against the system really is to bring in a Trump or similar.

We have a ready-made swamp-drainer waiting in the wings

Macawsley, Some could switch easily as well even if interested in policy , there's lots of different policies on both side, some get balance and simply pick

Oh, that's great so Labour are going to stop the billions of foreign sourced money inflating house prices? And tighten rules on offshore players using some form of NZers buying property?
Education - ok some difference in tertiary
Health - slight increase perhaps
International education - I suggest it will be more of the same
Yes, I agree let's give Labour a go. But don't expect the tough decisions to fix immigration/ international education/low wages/ hyperinflation in housing, to be made as expected - after all there's an election coming up in 2020!

Nope, Labour's stance is they will close the international student rort... so not more of the same. I'd advise you to read their policies, rather than listen to the shrill of National die hards...

" why can’t we find the growth?

Perhaps because...

In a world dominated by debt, we do well to study the words of T.S. Eliot.
"Debt drives speculation that deludes us into thinking we can defer the obligations incurred in time past and time present forever into time future. So we live irresponsibly in time present making promises we can never keep. “What might have been” – real solutions to our problems – is a mere abstraction as leaders betray the future by committing grievous sins against the living, the dead and the unborn Debt is the single most important symptom of the moral, intellectual and spiritual collapse around us"

https://thecreditstrategist.com/

Thanks bw great quote! And that is exacerbated by a failure, particularly it would unfortunately seem, amongst the younger generations, to distinguish between money borrowed and money earned. For example some time ago I remember a student friend of the family spending her first part of her student loan on a stereo system, and not an inexpensive one at that. At that point it was hers, owned outright, so there! Needless to say, no degree was ever achieved, the loan is still outstanding, and god knows where the stereo is.

Watching Colemans well-prepared personable performance on Q&A this morning - maybe he would have given National a better chance of reelection than English. Maybe his time will come as leader after Nationals election loss in 3 weeks.

Really his presentation was so cringe worthy!

Agreed , well spotted ... while Clarke was busy defending his flimsy policies cost by slipping in the "Tax the rich" stupid remark ..lol

One wonders why then, his nick name amongst health professionals up and down our good country,is apparently, Dr Death.

if you define personable as constantly talking over the other party and not letting them get a word in.

National's tsunami boiler-room of paid nonsense peddlers is flat out

Yes Labour need to really clarify how they're going to approach immigration, last I head on the subject from Little a few months ago. is that they would look to reduce inflows by focusing on highly skilled and well educated migrants not sure if they've changed their tune from then though it did give them a huge boost in the poles from what I remember.

National will always keep flood gates open for rental fodder that will keep the top 1% happy if competition for rents remains high.

Jacinda has made Labour's policy quite clear, read my comment above.

Taxinda has made her tax policy clear as mud LOL

Only for you Zach GZ.... but hopefully that's just denial not the other factor. Or do you have your fingers in your ears while singing "La, la la labour, I can't hear you?"

My guess is that immigration figures will come in slightly lower if for no other reason than Kiwis are less likely to return in winter and the Dept of Immigration will be responding to other countries complaining about exploitation of immigrants (eg Europeans refusing to buy our apples & kiwi fruit). So it will have little effect on voters.
However NZ will still have immigration double Australia, triple USA and about five-fold of most OECD countries and that is not counting the countries with effectively no immigration: Japan, China. We will still be ignoring our problem of inability to fill low skilled jobs with our native under-employed Kiwis; we will still be importing 3rd world wages.

I will be voting for whoever sincerely promises to stamp out the exploitation that is rife in NZ immigration. see https://www.auckland.ac.nz/en/about/news-events-and-notices/news/news-20...

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Thanks for the link, appalling slave based economy anyone? Has anything been done to deal with this since it came out in December. No I didn't think so.
Our extraordinary immigration levels have, and are having, a large effect on peoples lives and futures. I think NZ First and Labour need to make folk more aware of the effect on housing, health care, schools, roads etc.
Nats claim that we have a highly successful economy needs to be exposed for the lie it is.
Productivity net negative for five years, unaffordable housing, median wages flat and record homelessness. If that's the best we can do with record terms of trade, a supposed boost from our promiscuous immigration policy and over 30,000 million of fresh money into the economy from private sector credit growth then something's very wrong.

It's sad that any attempt at a rational immigration debate is shut down as racist (James Shaw's 'values not evidence') but when there is proven widespread exploitation which would be front page headlines if it applied to Kiwis we all look the other way because it is only foreigners.

To be fair Jacinda did use the word 'exploitation' once in the debate but said it fast with the emotional weight of a feather. It should be the number one issue: basic morality should have priority over taxes, housebuilding and transport.

Now that Lapun, is a good argument. Labour is the party that is going to shut down the immigration rort. Watch the Leaders Debate on TvNZ on demand. Hope you having a good weekend.

David, just let's be careful what we wish for -
The new school of thoughts regarding AI and the Fourth Industrial Revolution are hinting that increased productivity is actually a BAD thing for society as it has so far, and will, increase unemployment, reduce goods and services prices, hence capping inflation, and make it more difficult to increase wages ...!! hence there is a push for an alternative system to cohabit with new technology and political philosophies which are different from Capitalism and Socialism - Maybe UBI, as a proposed solution, is closer than we think it would be ... there is, and has been, a lot of serious work on tweaking this ATM...

Follow up on some interesting discussions in DAVOS 2017 on youtube re these issues - if interested.

Worries about AI and automation are overblown at least in this country. Business people in New Zealand eschew investments in labour saving machinery in favour of low wage migrant labour, a bach, nice new car, and the odd holiday.

I've been following developments in automation, A.I. and the worries related to technological unemployment since 2009. The early alarmists overestimated the speed at which automation and A.I would be adopted throughout by employers at a time when wage growth is stagnant and underestimated the degree to which business mis-allocates the labour poo and the extent that government is ready and able to waste the economy's surplus value.
http://www.thelightsinthetunnel.com/

What is the total debt the Nats have now accumulated - is it now half a trillion dollars and what was it when they took power 9 years ago. Also does anyone have any idea how much is being spent by health boards on interpreters due to the massive amount of non english speaking migrants that have been let into NZ? Finally who will replace Bill English next month - Judith Collins or Steven Joyce or maybe Jonathan Coleman?

Sshhh.... you are not allowed to talk about that. It's all about the current 'surplus...'
Crusher is already plotting the coup, but will fall to Coleman.

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Watching Q&A this morning - Michelle Boag came across as absolutely desperate! The Nats attack campaign the worst possible approach.

Yes, she is doing a great job for Labour. Every time she tries to defend & overtalk

Too right Boag is poison for National. That is why she is always trotted out by the MSM. Having her represent Nationals view demonstrates the ineptitude of their campaign.

Michelle Boag has class and she is not talking like someone's PA. She is right in so many ways that Labour is all talk and no substance! Everything is better this better that but they have no clue HOW to do it.

Such class that she does deserve her own puppet at Backbenchers;

http://liberation.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451d75d69e20168e969a760970c-600wi

Indeed, Michelle was spot On on substance ...
only a complete blind could not see the lack of substance these two " Labour future ministers of the crown" showed this morning .... One agrees that Nat is doing ok, but he just wants change, the other declared that he will tap into Rich people ATM to cover his shortfalls ....when you have no answer just use the magic word ..TAX

Her comment about Labour borrowing stuff from Trump's book was spot on too... I wouldn't like to see us anywhere close to what is happening in the USA ATM .... The Clown was elected on looks and promises and now he is stuck because even some of his people refuse to play ball, his counselling MATES have deserted him because of his Own BS and timing, his popularity is bottom low ... and the streets are boiling for so many reasons and disappointments !!
next thing we know is to take the whole world to a war through stubborn horn fighting another Mad idiot in NK.

Give it a rest Eco Bird. You regurgitating National Party's talking points is just becoming really boring. At least use a bit of imagination and come up with your own criticisms.

https://www.auckland.ac.nz/en/about/news-events-and-notices/news/news-20... This URL is repeated because it is so very very important. These shocking events happened under National's watch. It confirms my opinion that votes for National in the coming election will come from the ignorant and most especially the truly selfish.

This sort of exploitation by NZ businesses and recent immigrant/foreign owned businesses and behaviour of Immigrants themselves is also an outcome of the sheer numbers arriving in NZ. They can't all be screened properly and kept from exploiters or themselves kept from getting into illegal activity.
Maybe the NZ Govt would rather keep a blind eye to all of this - as long as overall high immigration, high student numbers, & foreign house buying keeps the economy superficially pumped up?

Arrogant and selfish will defeated this election

The big question at present is what will happen on the Korean peninsula?
Kim is pushing and pushing, evidence that he has miniaturised a nuke will surely push military action.
Then all bets are off on both the global and nz economy

No it is not the big question at all. Kim and his father and his grandfather have been pushing for decades and it is old news. Doomsters' favourite saying "all bets are off" *yawn*.

The issue in North Korea should be all the poor citizens who would be set free from starvation and oppression & terrible living conditions if South Korea and the USA invaded and set the country free.

North Korea believe they have every imaginable reason & right to take over South Korea as a matter of entitlement. This worked for the Viet Cong, so why not. That has been instilled in their political doctrine and society since 1948 . No words from anybody will ever change that. And now Putin is making a long overdue but timely, entrance. Cannot be too far away now, before Russia or China or both, cook up a stew for Trump that he will choke on. They & NK want the USA role & presence in Sth East Asia to be greatly reduced. At the moment NK is doing a fairly good job of making Trump, despite all his noise, look impotent & the USA consequently weak.

State enforced poverty and deprivation of North Korean citizens in this photo essay
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/photos-of-life-in-north-korea-2017-4?...
The treatment of the people should be the driver for intervention not the mad leaders actions/threats.

Doesn't look much different to many places around the world. They looked quite happy really and they will likely be hurling themselves at you with bombs strapped to their backs if you try and intervene while Seoul is being pummeled by tens of thousands of artillery pieces and rockets. Best leave well alone and concentrate on our own first world problems.

Oh?, like they freed IRAQ in 2003 and Libya eh? ...lol and in the process of freeing Yemen and Syria !! and the whole middle east to come soon !!

Well, South Korea can thank the US for saving them from North Korean conditions.
Which Korea would you prefer to live in?

I suggest you ask a citizen of one of the countries I mentioned above, few are here in NZ but most ( in their millions) now reside in Europe as refugees

I suggest you go and live in North Korea for 2 years.
Then reflect and evaluate your non-interventionist worldview.

Using your logic MortgageBelt we should be intervening in about a quarter of the countries in the world. How about you go and live in Libya or Afghanistan for a couple of years? Are you going to personally intervene if given the chance, or perhaps your sons and daughters if you have any? Intervening often involves killing a whole lot of innocent people and sacrificing your own service people. It's a pretty heavy thing to suggest. All the interventions since and including Vietnam have been a disaster. NK armed with nukes is unlikely to be any different and likely to be a whole lot worse. We could see Seoul or Tokyo destroyed with atomic bombs.

South Koreas people have benefited from escaping totalitarianism and communism
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/05/10/south-korea...
Were it not for the US, they would be living under strict oppression and deprivation like NOrth Korea.

The United States never cared for the lives of anyone, not even their own citizens, they were more worried about their position in world affairs being superseded by the U.S.S.R. Until 1987 South Korea was ruled by a military government.

You don't think the fact that he can, or is close to putting a nuke on an ICBM that can hit America takes the level of risk to a different level?

Another nuke test just now:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11916415

He's going above and beyond his usual provocation

More b/s and bluster from Kim.He knows that launching an attack on the Yanks will result in total annihilation for him and his mates and lets not forget,China(thats if you can trust them) has said,if you attack first you are on your own.

Yes.
But the question is not whether he launches an attack.
The question is how much tolerance the USA has for the advancement in his nuclear program.

did China say that? They certainly criticsised the sanctions on North Korea as a provocative act !. I am failign to see China take any leadership in this problem.

The first thing to remember is your information about N Korea comes from the same media that constantly feeds us propaganda.
There are a lot of countries that can hurl a nuke but for some reason they aren't being threatened.
N Korea hasn't attacked anyone as compared to the USA who think they have some God ordained right to attack, propagandize, politically interfere and invade who ever they want.
I think N Korea have the moral high ground if you look at history and stop listening to the media.

Certainly a problem that needs fixing but I am not qualified to make judgements on how best to do so. However, programs such as this are a few elections too late.

Yeah, National's campaign slogan ought to be 'Better late than never'.

I can see Paula having to buy up additional motels for use as incarceration centres

You would have tobe a cynic to think that Nats policy changes a heart beat away from the election is nothing but good govt in action......

By the way what has happened wrt the 50 odd new bridges the Nats proposed in the Northland by election.

I think that idea died when they got soundly beaten.

How about "Elect us again and we promise we'll get around to stuff this time! Honest!"

The Closer we get to election, the more totalitarian ugly ideology is being revealed by Labour for everyone to see ... what is next I wonder ? ... cap rent amounts or allow the tenants to confiscate the property ... cause anything goes on the hoof under this lot !!

This lady has no idea or touch with the real world and she is making things up as she goes - back to the 1990s folks !!

#DontVoteLabour

Assume you are talking about this policy;

http://www.labour.org.nz/renters

I thought it great - particularly the ban on letting fees.

Those fees are another area where cost is transferred to taxpayers via WINZ subsidies for those unable to afford them.

Time to end all these unnecessary transfers. Just like when selling a house - the owner of the asset should pay whatever sales commission is necessary should they choose to use an agent to facilitate the commercial transaction.

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One party is trying to find ways to fix the country's problems. The other is in complete denial that there are problems. Yeah, I know who I'm putting more faith in.

Welcome to another newbie. The Left is strong in this one.

Hardly the voice of common sense and reason there Ecotothepoint. Shrill like that is only going to push folk Labour's way. Keep it up. I look forward to your next over the top announcement.

EB is reverse avatar for BE (you know who) he of the prolific texting capabilities - 450 to 1 person

The Herald suggested on Friday that more was to come out re the BE Glenys Dickson relationship.

450 texts, some at 2am.

What does Toddy know and what does he have on tape for the billshitter to have cut him so much slack?

Totalitarian like a government that subverts the democratic process by disbanding the elected board of Environment Canterbury and appointed their own Commissions with sweeping new powers when the elected board refused accede to the dictates of the farming lobby relating to water quality and irrigation.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/3612103/Environment-Canterbury-...

Imposing SHAs all around the country was pretty totalitarian-like too...

Or Paula Bennett's latest about some people not having human rights.

Yes I saw her quip about some having less rights than others. Pretty scary stuff. Its a slippery ole' slope that is.

Bill says she misspoke. My impression is she accidentally said what she sincerely believes.

Most SHA's have expired or are about to with virtually no homes built - Nick Smith was shitting us all.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/96422627/ecan-rejects-offensive-stat...

Old news anarkist. ECan is now part elected part appointed. David Parker, at a recent public meeting complimented ECan commissioners on the good job they have done. Go figure........

The ones not in touch with the real world - other than their big business mates - are the Nats!

prehaps demand for agricultural products world wide will save new zealand GDP after the experiment with immigration is wound back under a labour government and productivity increases fail to emerge ...since its unlikely that the construction industry will save the housing crisis from continuing.. read (http://breakingviewsnz.blogspot.co.nz/2017/09/brian-gaynor-building-indu...) , good luck think either party has the magic bullet.. did labour really accomplish much last time or was it a the golden summer before the autumn and the winter of the GFC. Immigration was used by national to buffer new zealand from the GFC..Were you all listening as Joe Kernen annouced sub prime in the early hours of CNBC 2007. Of course not, you were all asleep in bed having been reassured by helen and Dr Cullen that all was well in little hobbit land.... Some of us knew what was coming in that special IMF report...Anyone been whatching the BOJ with interest? Now there is one of the new experiments that you should all whatch as there is behind the scenes the future models of many policies to come....... neither labour , the greens nor national will inform you of the future monetary models to come becuase they do not have any siting members with any knowledge of research into new monetary policies.

Thanks again accountingsoftw... for the clarifications ... and the link to Brian's article,

Agreed ... but some people will only see the bumper of the bus after it hits them ...! however, cannot blame shortsighted people for what they are ... hope they will keep their enthusiasm after 23rd of Sept ... if WP decides to go with the Nats ...that will be a real funny theatre to watch ....

I suspect anyone in power will inform us about the future that is simmering on low heat -
The Fourth Industrial Revolution , UBI, etc ...

but until then a lot of the disappointed cheerleaders will cry blue murder when the left reduces the government intake by implementing all sorts of demoralizing policies forgetting that business and top earners are the largest contributors to the collected tax and that business works on confidence and stability so does the NZD exchange rate and interest rates , tourism ...etc...

Business can see through the faults of Labour's policies,Team, and association with TU...these are all alarm signals for the wise ... even after a very popular vote in office , they can cripple the government of the day if they decide to do that - that is what is happening in some form in the USA.

Left supporters can celebrate and justify as much as they want ..but they will pay like the most of NZers ..dearly !! ( God Forbid)

#DontVoteLabour

Actually I was regularly frequenting, if you would believe Kiwiblog.co.nz and went on record warning that it would be a mistake for the National Party to deliver their tax cuts when if it won office would be confronted with an economic crisis not experienced since the Great Depression. Even as Bear Stearns collapsed and our own finance sector suffered failure after failure. I was dismissed for my troubles and over the following few years waiting with bated breath, expecting world leader to actually have the integrity to act according to principle and swallow the same medicine they forced on South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand after the Asian Crisis, and Latin America during the early 1990s debt crisis. This of course would have led to the collapse of the world economy, so I should have expected Western politicians and public officials to act with absolute hypocrisy and duplicity.

Oh, OH !! here is trouble !! latest poll ....
The show is about to begin folks, stock the fridge and reserve a seat
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=11...

You think that Winston would go with the National Party after the stunt they pull re. his superannuation over payments? If so you can guarantee he'll have his pound of flesh. Paula Bennett will be swiftly jettisoned as Deputy Prime Minister, I guarantee it. I'd almost be prepared for another 3 years of those clowns just to see the sour scowl replace her insufferable smug grin.

lol, its going to be fun all round ... Some Clowns are just funnier than others ...

if this poll is any close to reality of the 23rd \Sept then chances are that WP would probably do a deal with the NATs - I suppose he hates the Greens too much to get in bed with them, a bit more than PB if it was proved that she did it ... :)..... However, two is company, three is crowd ...( or one too many) as they say !! ... and Messy!!

WP will have his pound (or two) of flesh anyway - it will be interesting to learn where will he be getting that from - and who is going to drop their pants lower ! ... the rest is just minor details as to who stays or leaves ... wherever WP is ushered in , they must make some room for him :) ...and that applies to Labour too - Albeit, Davis is an easier sacrifice!!

I personally think that WP mindset is more aligned with the centre right ( where his roots were) than with Labour whose policies are getting more are more ridiculous by the day ( I believe that they have started pushing their luck already and they might regret that) - they are getting carried away and dishing out silly announcements as if they are already in office ....!

the golden rule in politics: Nothing is more important than your own Interest, everything else is negotiable and there are no unforgivable sins ! -- I guess you knew that already.

Idiot and childish rants aside, Nats are not perfect and have had problems and maybe did what they could ( in good and bad) ... we will never know until we are given all the inside details of Governance .... but as it stands now , taking all policies,teams, projects etc in consideration , their solutions seem to be "more" realistic and reasonable in achieving the same results that both parties agree on without blowing out the economy and taking an axe to the tree ...

'Some Clowns are just funnier than others...' you are my favourite clown on this site ecotothepoint... you are the one with 'idiot and childish rants.' You hurl abuse at anyone with contrary points of view, yet cry foul when it's gently pushed back at you,You write this stuff and it concerns me you actually believe it. Isn't time you took a few minutes out and raised the rent on the hard working kiwi family who is paying your mortgage...???

I've suspected the media are trying to run a Trump vs Clinton narrative and trying to make Jacinda the Hillary Clinton of NZ. Today they've confirmed my suspicion and really jumped the shark with this article.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/96447979/is-national-buying-into-the-do...

The media will learn that, just like in the US, voters are not stupid and our voting decisions will not be influenced by them.

That's what happens here when someone takes long waited action against the very "Known" people who contribute to NZer's misery ... all blue murder crying soft hearted people crawled from under the rock they have been sleep and raise the flag of rights !!

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=11...

They forget that victims have rights too, actually they have more rights to be protected and live in safety than the few privileges of " Know serious criminal Gang members" !!

Nanny state has done a lot of damage and we became just a moaning state even when someone tries to protect us and show some dicsipline...!!

you do know that it's people like you that are the biggest contributors of misery in this country, don't you? You are the self entitled people who feel they can crush the last cent out of the people that pay your way... be careful what you wish for when taking other peoples human rights away... yours could follow!

this link is for the benefit of clever and polite people who are following new change:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QP8N3vMDq2I&ab_channel=WorldEconomicForum

.

heres how it really is for you new zealanders...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=1191...

Lies then denial, how unusual from this government........ not