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Consistent sales rates around 50% being achieved at residential property auctions

Consistent sales rates around 50% being achieved at residential property auctions

Auction activity is starting to flatten out, suggesting the pent up demand that was evident immediately following the lockdown restrictions has largely been satisfied and auction activity is returning to normal.

Interest.co.nz monitored 203 residential property auctions around the country in the third week of June (15-21 June), compared to 216 the previous week.

Auction numbers are still running ahead of where they were at the same time last year, with interest.co.nz monitoring 153 auctions in the third week of June (17-23 June) last year.

While the number of properties being offered at auction is up on last year, the sales ratio has remained remarkably consistent at around 50%.

Of the 203 auctions monitored last week, sales were achieved on 101, giving a sales ratio of exactly 50%, compared to 45% the previous week and 49% the week before that.

In the third week of June last year the sales ratio was 47%.

However auction prices appear to be slightly firmer than they were at this time last year.

Where interest.co.nz was able to match selling prices with rating valuations, 72% of the selling prices were above their equivalent rating valuations last week.

That compares with 58% that were above their rating valuations in the third week of June last year.

Details of all the properties at the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

78 Comments

I hope everyone has crunched the numbers and can service their loans at higher rates. Everything is pointing to the FED not being able to print their way out of this. A large dose of reality incoming in 6-12 months. In the real world there's no such thing as free money.

The Fed will keep printing! its their only strategy...

Any recession in the housing market seems destined to be somewhat muted.

In fact, the housing market is proving remarkably resilient, on the back of Covid-19 and winter.......

I'm certainly not dismissing that house prices might fall a bit - but no where in the domain of the 30-90 per cent decline that the DGM have been insisting...... That is simply over-stating the case, no doubt with private interest in mind.

TTP

Only 30 - 90 percent is not enough, a fall of 130 to 190 percent might be. (sarc)

You glibly dismiss the falls coming down the track, but you seem wildly out of touch with the implications. The falls dont' need to be in the range of 30-90% to have huge ramifications. A 20% fall (within the range of scenarios being predicted by a range of economists) will be a financial disaster for for many recent FHB buyers. RBNZ estimate it would put 7.5% of housing stock (with mortgages) in negative equity.

Stop and think about that. That will be a huge number of people who may be financially wiped. Many first home buyers have spent 5-10 years saving up that deposit and have thrown in the majority of their retirement savings to date.

And yet you happily try to peddle the myth that its somehow not a significant risk, just so you can try and temp people in the market. As for your snarky comment about "private interests" you really shouldn't throw stones in glass houses, especially when you refuse to deny or acknowledge that you have a vested interest in a real estate company.

You're dreaming and "wildly out of touch". I don't think I have heard any economists quote 20 percent recently if at all.

CBA reported 30% for the Aussie housing market so why should we be any different?

Hi Albert 2020,

With all due respect, Australia and New Zealand are different countries.

TTP

Aussie is our biggest export market, and our banks are owned by Aussie banks. That could never effect us could it?

TTP
Agreed.
Definitely just as the Auckland and Queenstown markets are currently very different.
Last year I kept reading on this site how the Auckland market was going to follow that of Australia and especially Sydney which was tanking. Didn't actually happen.
I also keep hearing horror stories of the GFC collapse in both USA and Ireland and how it is imminent to happen here . . . . I'm puzzled . . . a similar GFC crash didn't happen here . . . I also keep reading here how the Japanese market crash 2007(?) and still has not recovered to the same extent . . . but again . . . . property has gone exceptionally well here - in fact too well - since 2007.
I do not argue that New Zealand is not immune to a property crash . . what I argue is that one can't blandly link one market to other whether it be regional New Zealand or internationally.
There are fundamental factors that make markets quite different from one another. For example the USA GFC crash was fueled greatly by significant numbers of sub-prime mortgages which are not existent in New Zealand.
Despite the cynical claims on this site that "We are diffrunt" . . .over the past two years immigration into New Zealand (as a property price driver) was twice per capita that Australia was so not surprising NZ prices held up better than the Australian market - we were "different".
Without considering underlying factors and blandly compare Auckland with Queenstown is flawed, so to compare Australia and New Zealand equally so.

The very fact that Aussie and NZ ( could also add canada to the mix) didn’t have a major housing correction during the GFC is why we are far more exposed now. It’s called reversion to the mean. Our household debt binge is the reason we have seen unsustainable house price growth. Being highly leveraged when you have an income is one thing but to either be underemployed or worst unemployed whilst exposed to such high debt levels is toxic. Our housing market has far more commonalities with Australia than differences. High unemployment, drastically reduced migration, no international tourism, reduced bank lending (the driver of house prices), housing consents at record highs, all while being exposed to the worst global economic crisis in a generation is highly deflationary.

With all due respect our housing market shares far more commonalities with Australia than differences but you won’t read about that in your go to property resource, OneRoof. Have a great weekend and stay resilient old chap.

I am not predicting more than 25% fall, but.... wait and watch the game in two months time.

From what I read the other day we have already had a 8% drop and a further 12% ecpected.

Youre reading the BS written on the wall of the public lav again.

You must have missed part where i said "within the range of scenarios". I never said it was their prediction, but within the range of scenarios outlined based on a high degree of uncertainty.

"ANZ report affirms forecast of 10% to 15% fall in house prices this year but warns there's a risk they could fall by more".

This is directly from interest.co.nz (https://www.interest.co.nz/property/105119/anz-report-affirms-forecast-1...), and from a source far from being interested in portraying a pessimistic view of the housing market..

20% is perfectly plausible, possibly on the pessimistic side, but far from being unjustified. It much depends on what is going to happen to the unemployment rate - if it gets too high there is no zero interest rate policy nor QE that can magically make an unemployed household be able to pay a mortgage.

The housing market ultimately depends on the real economy - if the real economy tanks, it is delusional thinking to assume that this is not going to significantly impact the housing market. But of of course nobody knows to what extent this correlation is going to manifest itself, and when. Definitely not in its full extent while measures like mortgage deferrals and wage subsidies are still in place - but they can only be temporary measures and only kick the can a little bit further down the road.

On the other hand, the NZ economy might prove more resilient than expected, and the corresponding slump be no more than something like 10%. It also depends on international developments, and this is virtually impossible to forecast at the moment, with this pandemic raging in some major countries. We also all need a bit of luck with things such as vaccine development.

The point is their FORECAST is 10 to 15. Not 20 and equally not 5. Are you people open to the idea that it could be 5 ?? You keep pushing more than not less than so your minds are closed IMO. Auckland house stock numbers are dropping, in fact right around the country. Along with available rental numbers. Those stats have been used to justify wild black swan predictions... the mood is changing

Auckland supply has dropped 80 over the past week but increased over 500 since beginning of May so once again you take a myopic assessment to try and fit your own narrative.

Hi Miguel,

With all due respect, the "huge ramifications" that you talk about above are, in fact, unknown. Rather, they're the subject of huge speculation. By no means are they a done deal.

I for one, don't wish to see the "financial disaster" and/or people being "wiped out" that you emphasise above...... and, I suspect, would welcome.

Your own (and certain other people's) steadfast talk of gloom and doom here is, at best, unhelpful. Together with your inaccurate representation of the facts and forecasts, your biases likely serve to condition people into believing that the economy is in much worse shape than it really is; thus creating undue negative expectations. Undue negative expectations, in turn, create the risk of becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. This is a central tenet in the literature of economics.

In a word, Miguel, you are being careless/foolish.

Please note that the core economic forecasters are picking a 10-12 percent reduction in house prices - which happens to be in-line with my own thinking. (Your figure of 20 percent is evidence of your bias.)

Finally, I have no allegiances whatsoever with any real estate company, or the real estate industry. (I have little respect for some of their selling practises and the conduct of some salespeople.) Your statement about me has no credibility. Either be specific about any such allegiance or withdraw your comment. If you can't/won't "put up or shut up", your credibility slips further.

TTP

TtP, again - can you give an example of anyone predicting a 90% decline?

Its probably not literal al124 that someone has voiced it out loud but I wouldn't be surprised if its been thunk.. ps just so you're aware my 130 percent comment is not literal either

So you and TTP are bagging the so-called 'DGM' on the basis of a claim about something no-ones said, and isn't meant to be taken literally, but someone (not anyone in particular) might have thought?

Maybe and if I look through the myriad of off the wall statements from DGM there will be more than a handful that fit the bill. And note, dont thunk I am speaking for TTP

'There will be more than a handful that fit the bill'.
Ok. In that case it should be easy to find one where someone is predicting a 90 percent fall in prices. Where is it then?

I will do it tomorrow... just for you al.. question, do those who state 85 percent count or just those where its 90 percent and no more???

No I'm just highlighting a RANGE of scenarios that people should factor into their decision making. Given that predictions of GDP falls and economic impacts have been downgraded a couple of times over the past month or so (as countries fail to get a handle on the pandemic) people should be considering the possible downside risks.

I have never said what people should/shouldn't do, but given the level of uncertainty these are things that should be considered. Nothing I have said is inaccurate or misleading, and I never predicted a 20% fall, but explained its withing the scenarios outlined by economists.

I'm not going to repeat the specifics of who you were "outed as", but i'm sure you have read them. Yet just continued to sidestep them and haven't responding to them.

TTP, you don't know. You can't assess the sum total of all economic decisions during a once in a hundred year pandemic while we experiment with QE. Can you even articulate why house prices would fall 12% and not 20%?, no. What does the 8% represent to you?, nothing. The ANZ predicted 10% to 15% falls OR MORE, then things changed now the say 12%, what if things change?. Basically you don't know. You just align your guesses to the guesses from the ANZ, but they're all over the place because ... they don't know. How do you know more people won't panic after a 12% drop, you don't.

Also, why does considering that a 20% drop define someone as a DGM but if you believe they will only fall by 12% you are not. Both sound pretty gloomy to me. The world doesn't freeze based off your perspective, you don't give definition in a world of subjectivity. You sound, ... "foolish".

Question, if a FHB with my equity now "wiped out" but I can still afford the mortgage does it matter?? I would have to pay rent any way so I may as well just keep paying the mortgage as my equity will at some stage recover. Sure I may have to live in the "less aspirational" house for a will longer than I may have hoped but so what? Are the banks going to en masse /can the banks actually, foreclose / demand equity top ups in that situation? If so why when they are continuing to receive the interest payments - yes I know the point behind behind equity for security etc but still see no need for mass foreclosures.

Do you have an example of anyone predicting a 90% decline? That seems like a pretty big exaggeration.

Just to be clear: you think that the printing will stoke inflation, and the central banks will then raise rates in response?

If that's the argument, even if the inflation does come, I'd expect that for a little while anyhow they'll allow "catch up" inflation and not raise rates.

Haven't applied for a loan lately, but someone reported that banks were testing loan maths at 6-7% in most cases. Does anyone else have more info on that?

I don't know if they have started testing at a higher level but I know that they've been testing at that rate for years. It's the most frustrating thing as a FHB to do all the math, have the numbers work @3% (now 2.6%!) or whatever and then have the bank say we can't give you that much because we're testing your loan at 6.5%.

Agree. That's what the banks were doing, and I haven't heard that they've stopped.

I’m no fan of the banks but it’s called responsible lending to stress test the customer at those interest rates.

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Number of Auction up as more people rushing to sale as expecting market to fall going future and also as RE Agents though doing high appraisal as of now are not fully confident that will get the premium as appraised so the best way for them also besides getting more commission is to do auction and if the auction fails, that will be self explanatory / feedback to the vendor of the market condition / price indicator of their house and RE agents does not have to go extra mile to make them aware of reality.

Market has to flatten before taking a direction (either up or down) so now the market has flatten at appox 50% sale rate and can be anybodys guess of future direction that the market will take.

Important is price and as of now they are holding up with few exception though percentage of sale is down and it is this few houses that have feteched premium are still holding the price as FOMO is at play and though unemployment level is increasing on a weekly basis but still are few who are confident of their jobs / earnings. It is still a while till adverse economic consequence of the panademic is felt on the street as is cushoned by printing and distribution of money by government.

Should get clear picture by October / November.

No guess work required. Global economy is tanking, NZ has closed the border, everywhere you look it’s grim. Property will sink in tandem with mass unemployment we will see after the elections. No politician will call this pre-election, post election it will be a different matter.

The housing market in Auckland reminds me of 2007 Ireland. Huge house price inflation through the bull run then the population growth pressures stopped and undersupply became oversupply (here's the first indication this might be happening https://www.interest.co.nz/property/105606/number-code-compliance-certif...).

The market consequently fell off a cliff

It does feel like a Big Bubble but have been expecting a fall number of time in house market in last few year but so far it has only moved upward may be paused for a few months but again moving up up and UP.

Will this be the end of the bull run or as predicted by many that house price in NZ move only in one direction - UP is True.

Ireland is also basically back to where it was now. But it did take 7 years.

FYI

i) Index peaked at 163.6 in 2008
ii) Index currently at 133.9 in 2020 - 12 years later
After 12 years, the index is still 18% below the peak (and that is before the impact of leverage used by a buyer)

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/housing-index

What is the impact on a house owner?
- assuming a 80% LVR, and a 20% deposit, then that initial equity is down 91% - after 12 YEARS

1) The Peakers
A) Purchase in 2008 (interest only financing used as example)
i) House price purchased at 163,600 (index value 163.6 multiplied by 1000)
ii) Mortgage at 80% LVR: 130,880
iii) Equity deposit: 32,720

B) Equity value in 2013
i) House price at 75,000 (index value at say 75 multiplied by 1000)
ii) Mortgage: 130,880 (LVR 174.5%)
iii) Equity value is NEGATIVE 55,880 (a fall of 171% from initial equity deposit of 32,720 after 5 years)

C) Equity value at June 2020
i) House price now at 133,900 (index value 133.9 multiplied by 1000)
ii) Mortgage: 130,880 (LVR 97.7%)
iii) Equity deposit 3,020 (a fall of 91% from initial equity deposit of 32,720 after 12 years)

Remember that the biggest asset for most people is their house. For many, this asset is used as the main source of their funds for retirement.

2) As contrast, what about the The Troughers who purchase in 2014 (after property prices have bottomed out and stabilised)
A) Purchase in 2014
i) House price purchased at 80,000 (index value 80.0 multiplied by 1000)
ii) using the same equity deposit as above: 32,720
iii) Mortgage 47,280 (LVR 59%)

B) Equity value at June 2020
i) House price now at 133,900 (index value 133.9 multiplied by 1000)
ii) Mortgage: 47,280 (LVR 35.3%)
iii) Equity deposit 86,620 (an increase of 164% from initial equity deposit of 32,720 - after 6 years - equivalent to a return of 17.6% per annum )

Refer Peakers vs Troughers
https://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2008/08/11/timing-does-matter

https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/international-student-enrolments-gro...

117,248 international students studied in New Zealand in 2018.

Hi buyandhold,

With all due respect, Auckland and Ireland are in different parts of the world.

If you look at a map, carefully, you'll see that, in fact, they're even in different hemispheres.

TTP

They referenced similar economic drivers. You referenced "economic literature" earlier. Do they write economic text books for different countries?. Just wondering.

Thanks for the housing advice but I dont think I will take notice of someone who cant spell his own name ... buyandhodl.

'hodl" is now slang, therefore correct. The slang is derived from investment advice not to sell Bitcoin when to was 600 USD, today it is 9,180 USD. Not bad advice.

I've heard youngsters have put off international travel plans and are buying homes instead.

It's the flip side of that for my youngster friends here. They're trying to quickly sell up and leave NZ.

What is their reasoning?

Hi northman,

There are a lot more people who would like to live in NZ than there are people wanting to leave NZ.

That's one of the reasons that property in NZ is a very good long-term investment. (It's also one of the worst kept secrets.)

TTP

Unless they have saved an extraordinary amount for travel that seems unlikely. Even if you managed to get a mortgage with a ten percent deposit you'd still need 30-40k. I know plenty of people who did an OE while young, and none of them had anywhere near that amount saved for their travels.

Hmm... must be all the money they saved by not eating avocado toast during lockdown.

.................(tumbleweed)....................

Agreed. It doesn't sounds right. Its almost counter intuitive to their original intent. Anyone saving with the intent of travel would of left way before having that balance.

Get a degree, save $10k, get out of here. Its been that way for a very long time.

Even if you did have a partner you'd still only have half of the bare minimum. And those who (until Covid) were seriously planning an OE are unlikely to be in relationships solid enough to consider buying a house together. People tend to take their OE's when they are young and single.

Feedback from agents on Hibiscus Coast is that lower quartile stuff is moving (selling) fast.
I think June sales will end up pretty close to June 19 because May and April sales are going through in June instead. When that inventory clears, looks like sales will be 25-35% lower, looking at the fact that mortgage loans approved in May were 33% lower acc to RBNZ

An agent talking things up and saying they are moving fast (spreading FOMO)? I am SHOCKED.

"Feedback from agents"..... Enough said !!!!

Thanks for comparing the numbers to the same month last year.

Btw, I think your statement that "you cannot compare different months" is incorrect or at least an oversimplification. One just needs to account for seasonal variation. For example, for the last two years the Auckland HPI has been basically flat between May and June, and three years ago it only dropped by 0.4%. I don't have previous years data handy unfortunately.

Now, let's imagine that in 2020 the Auckland June HPI is 2% lower than May's HPI. I think you'll agree that is a meaningful month to month comparison if looked at in its historical context. And such an HPI would still be 4.5% up YoY. Both comparisons are useful!

15
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You can't compare different months unless the result shows an increase in house prices.

Haha :-)

As of today prices are holding up. Infact many houses (That are successfull in Auction) are going for premium.

What happens in future is wait and watch. Though all indicators points towards fall but for now house prices are holding up.

RBNZ says mortgage commitments rebounded in May after shrinking in April (obviously), but were still down by a third from the same time last year. That’s a lot.
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Statistics/tables/C30...

And many people (see TPP, houseworks etc) don’t realise how significant that fact is. Credit growth is house price growth. Without credit growth house prices decline.

My sense is that these people are mainly real estate specialists (real estate agents, real estate investors, developers, builders, etc). May be unaware of the linkages that you have raised.

Haha CN and you in the real estate investor category

Over here Qantas is laying off 6000 employees, not sure how many Air NZ will be laying off and there will be more to come. There is no such thing as a stable job in this pandemic. If you are thinking this whole thing will be an easy landing, you definitely have rocks in your head!

Very good. That makes it less likely you will return but unfortunately we still have you popping up with churlish comments from overseas.

For all you know, I might still be paying tax in NZ to support your ponzy scheme!
Btw, do you own this website? ;-)

You seem conflicted about where you want to be

Not one bit, I know exactly where I am heading. It might be that you are receiving conflicting signals. Keep guessing!

Tuesday this week, a mate applied for loan top up from BNZ to buy a great cash flow business. He has excellent financials, but their Stress test level was 7.64% !!
So much for Robertson and Orr expecting banks to help growth

More deposit

Banks are hoarding cash, rather than lending it out. Its the same world wide. They are preparing for the coming wave of corporate debt defaults and residential foreclosures.

Surprising that this article is not listed on the property page: https://www.interest.co.nz/property

What to make of this today - https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/300041329/whats-rea.... So all of a sudden a range of experts are now saying house prices might only drop 5-10%? How does that work when the lower quartile is already at 7%? This estimate seems significantly out of whack with where a lot of the commenters on this site see the real state of things to come. Who's right is anyone's guess. Watching and waiting ...

Goodness, you all entertain me so much, what a bunch of pessimistic whinging key bangers LOL. I look forward to not the articles but reading all complaining comments that day in and day out post the same sentiments of doom n gloom. I sub'd to this site 8 years ago and nothing has changed, same people, same whining. Its hard to understand how yo'alll don't get sick of singing the same song!. I can spell it out for you really simply, why the great crash of 2011?, or was it 2012?, or 2013?, or 2014?, or 2015?, or 2016?, or 2017?, or 2019? hasn't happened like you all harp on about annually. Are you ready for it?

This is New Zealand.

One of, if not the most desirable places on the planet to live. As the rest of the world implodes on itself, that safe-haven desirability will only increase. Sorry to break it to you but you really should've bought that auckland house back in 2012 while you could've "just" afforded it. I hear great barrier is still pretty affordable and NZ currency is accepted there, might be a more accessible step onto the property ladder for you all now. Until then, no crash is coming, this is a different world to the 80s, we have cryptocurrency's and unprecedented debt levels, those who adapt will be king, those stuck in the past (pretty much everyone on this site) will sink.

I just bought my 4th Auckland house, started with 25k 8 years ago and now loving my ~7% yield average. Enjoy the remaining locked in rents unty jacinda helped you all out with and your 0.5% savings account returns. Id be enjoying them too, if id adhered to the naysayers advice polluting this site since i joined.

Have a great day guys

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