2022 was a weird year. Economic activity grew and our labour markets flourished. Even holiday spending is strong. Few picked these core strengths. But how will 2023 turn out? Have we consumed our future already? Time to record your 2023 predictions

I'll give a hot take prediction.

Labour will cling to power next election by rapidly throwing out a bunch of unpopular MPs after scapegoating them, throw out tons of money to people (inflation income complimentary payments or whatever), coalition with the greens and maintain a minority government. They have continued to prove that centre left governments create booms by spending.

The Gnats have nothing to offer for anyone who doesn't own a home and has no real policy, since all policy they output will be based on what wins in polls rather than resolving any of the core issues that voters are upset about.

Immigration will continue at a high pace, but it is likely to not be enough to save the housing market.

Generational transition of boomers out of the leadership of the workforce with older Millennials taking over continues on.

Housing market continues to fall, but at a slower rate. Institutions simply deny the falls are happening at the realised prices of the market, prices reach 2017/2018 RV by the end of the year.

I'm afraid my crystal ball is broken it would seem.  But I'm glad I figured that out fairly early on. 

I scored myself 8 / 20 for 2022 - I guess its not so bad.  I was right on inflation, Tesla, ETH vs BTC,  and a few other things.  But wildly off on others (like end of year prices for various things).

I'm going to assume a similar score-card for 2023 but here we go with 17 guesses (I will try and think of three more to edit the post):

1) National wins the election (with ACT).  Ardern resigns after the election (but not before).  Labour will poll as low as 23%.     

2) Inflation has peaked and will go downwards to around 3-4% by the end of the year.  No rate cuts but a long pause.  

3) 1 year fixed term mortgage will peak at around 6.5% (i.e. we are nearly there).  TDs peak at 5.5%.

4) For global assets, bottom takes place in a few months.   Rising gradually from there but not easy.

5) By end of 2023, Ukraine is the clear victor in the war, but some pockets remain.  Putin is gone one way or the other.

6) ETH continues to outpace Bitcoin - it won't flip it this year but there will be talk of that.

7) Coin base and Tesla will be up this year.

8) 2023 will be (again) a cooler year than the one before.

9) Crypto markets struggle but manage to erase the "FTX" fall and then a bit more.  That puts bitcoin at around the $25k level.  ETH to $1.5 to $2k.  

10) Prediction markets will predict Trump as next President by end of year.

11) NZ property market bottoms and starts to recover.  A bit down in price (0-5% fall before inflation) - but bolstered at the end of the year by the National victory. 

12) Defi continues to grow with a substantial increase in TVL.  I am thinking 50B plus TVL. 

13) The "monkey pictures" NFT market remains dead-ish.  But large companies are going to be using NFTs for all types of things - loyalty points, collectibles etc.  The key will be cheap or free NFTs.  Nobody is paying $300k for a picture of a rock!

14) A big election issue will be the plight of first home owners underwater as mortgagee sales will ramp up. 

15) The biggest theme of new technology and everything will be AI.  Expect this to be the case for the next decade.  Hard to tell how this works for an investor (maybe Chat-GBT can tell me?)

16) Best investment "class" will be commodities.  Bolstered as the economy starts to come online and gold and silver have a surge towards the end of the year.  Energy stocks too.  

17) NZ First makes it back (just) but sits on the sidelines.  TOP has a surprise surge getting to around 3.5%.  This is all at the expense of Labour.

I predict that HouseMouse will turn up to make several thousand predictions, and then spend the rest of the year publicly self-fellating over the 3 he happened to get right.

Last year's prediction:

by Squishy | 31st Dec 21, 9:36pm

The S&P500 index will be lower at the end of 2022 than where it starts.

The S&P500 hasn't been under its 200 day MA this year. There have been four times this has happened since 1981 and in three of those that index declined the following year. In fact the last time the index was under its 200 day MA was April 2020.

Started at 4797, ended at 3849. Well done if you stepped out of the market.

This years prediction:

The unemployment rate in New Zealand will not exceed 4.2% in 2023.

Even if there is a recession, which is nowhere near a foregone conclusion, our population age demographics will keep unemployment rates ultra-low.

... I predict that Grant Robertson will emerge as a big winner in 2023 ... after the general election ... taking over the leadership of the Labour Party after a bitterly contested battle with Chris Hipkins ( who will thence resign from parliament ) ...

Robbo will then lead Labour in opposition for 15 years until 2038 ... sadly for him he'll be ousted just weeks before Labour finally win an election again ,  whilst in hospital for a triple  bypass heart  op ... at which time the surgeons will reveal to the nation the answer to the age old question , " who ate all the Lamingtons " ...

- House prices ( HPI) to be down nationally between 7-12% by end of 2023 (from January 2023)

- House prices (HPI) in Auckland to be down 5-7% over same period

- NZSX50 to have a mediocre first half of 2023, down about 3-5% in first half of year and to finish 2023 about where it started

- CPI to be hitting an annual range of 3.5-4% by May 2023

- Unemployment to be around 4.5 - 4.75% by end of 2023, but with notable increases in construction, design, trade and hospitality sectors

- The OCR to be cut at least once before the end of 2023

- Net migration circa 15-20k

I'll start with my prediction of last year for 2022:

by Yvil | 31st Dec 21, 2:50pm

For me, the overriding issue for 2022 both for NZ and worldwide is Inflation.  Of course there are many other important aspects such as GDP, employment, housing, asset values and many more but IMO they will all mostly depend on inflation and the central banks' response to said inflation.

For 2023 I believe there will be a stronger slowdown than many think and that the "soft landing" will be much harder than anticipated but this will not happen until the second half of 2023, I think most underestimate the lag between policies (such as interest rate hikes) and their effect on the economy.

1. National/ACT win the election in a landslide.

2. JA quits just before or just after the election.

3. Crypto is toast.

4. NZ goes into a recession by May

5. Elon gives up on Twitter

6. The Ukraine war ends.

7. Zelensky falls out of a window.

8. The world continues to go down the toilet

9. Trump drops out of the 2024 election.

10. Climate change moves up a gear.

Feels like 2023 may be the year a decade of delusional post GFC thinking hits reality.

Combination of the slowdown (or reversal) of globalisation, demographic shifts (lower birth rates and retiring boomers), as well as the upfront costs of transitioning away from fossil fuels (and increasing impacts of climate change) will all alter the idea inflation can remain low and stable, while "economic growth" is always propped up by low rates and QE.

With growth slowing, unemployment rising and central banks unable to come the rescue there seems a high likelihood of some sort of event triggering a financial event of some sort.  It could be a bank (Credit Suisse), a bond crisis (like UK) or a private debt market such as corporate bonds or housing.  Either way many industries and investment decisions have been predicated on low interest rates, and that could be severely tested in a recessionary environment.

How governments and central banks respond is anyone's guess.  Will they try and inflate away the debt?  Prioritse fighting inflation over short term economic growth? Restart economic growth with infrastructure investment?  Who knows.

2023 predictions

Q1 & 2 story will be builders going broke, moving to Australia, and leaving half-finished homes and financially devastated homeowners in their wake. 

Q3 will be social housing waiting lists heading to the moon as investors give up and sell. Interest rates flatline and start to retreat, but only a little. 

Q4 will be rents catching up with inflation, buoyed by increases in welfare and student allowances out by whoever won the election. Unless Luxon says something silly about abortion I think National will win and at some point Labour are going to fully realize the gig is up and go into some form of ideological meltdown. 

Other:

1. I think National will reverse the interest deductibility changes and it will do absolutely nothing to house prices. The next property boom is 5 years of deleveraging away.

2. ComCom will continue to do nothing useful.

3. What excess rental supply there is will get hoovered up by mid year through a mix of housing being lost to AirBNB and social providers, building plummeting, people coming back etc. Prices wont change but rents will as they become the last to surf the inflation wave, supported by increased election bribes by a desperate Labour party. Risk to this is a surge in net departures.

4. Putin won't survive the year. I think he will be either assassinated or executed. 

5. There will be another oil shock (death throes of the war) but it will be brief

6. We are going to see some big bankruptcies. 

7. Flight costs will trend downwards overall as capacity returns. 

8. Population will increase by more than planned as more Chinese opt out of central control.

9. Interest rates level off by winter, come back a bit but not much. This is based on the yield curves. I'm in the inflation growth has peaked camp.

Valid points...

by Nifty1 | 31st Dec 21, 5:07pm

I think one of the big housing issues at the start of the year is going to be CCCFA, it's going to be interesting if govt will flake to the mounting opposition... Housing is in RBNZ's & Government's hands- I feel like if they want they can cause a correction - you can see this through the CCCFA changes & increasing rates. What will the public want though and how will the polling look like if the market swings the other direction? Could they risk pushing it too hard and the economy looses all momentum...

CCCFA was a massive issue at the start of the year & Labour back tracked on it - changes coming into full effect 2023.

Housing remains in the RBNZs & Govts hands, a correction is underway... the pressure is mounting and polls aren't looking good. The economy is starting to stall...

Not gonna make any capital P predictions, just leaving y'all with Zoltan Poszar's latest.

I don't do predictions but I'm partial to scenarios:

1. If the property ponzi in NZ continues to unwind and / or collapse (yes it is possible), consumer spending is going to get wrecked starting with all the 'nice to have' goods and services (I believe this is quite possibly happening but I don't have any hard evidence so best to leave it as a 'reckon'). Bubble businesses - craft beer, coconut youghurt, grooming - will start to suffer or go under. Mainstream beer and wine brands might experience a renaissance as their marketers tap into the power of their relative affordability.   

Needless to say, the relationship between the negative wealth effect and the ponzi is cruical. Both feed off each other so the risk for a self-reinforcing downward spiral is high, even though it's not talked about in any great depth.  

2. BTC will surprise. I prefer to stay away from price predictions but it could go well below USD10K but not sure it will stay there too long. On the other side, Tim Draper is still talking USD250K in 2023. Consensus suggests that the probability of this happening is low. Regardless, accumulation will be steady and possibly explosive. 

Fortunes will be made on altcoins but the media will not be aware of it as much as in 2021. 

3. The woke agenda will start getting serious push back. Those who base their lives around things like pronouns will become increasingly irrelevant. That does not mean people will be generally more sensitive to gender, identity, etc. It means that people will tire of petty culture conflct. 

4. The tech world will start to dismantle and splinter more, particularly in the world of social media. Google will continue to be dominant but people will realize it's not the be all and end all.   

Key issue is a skill and labour shortage. It’s a worldwide issue and we aren’t as attractive as other places.

At the same time we are running a large trade deficit which will carry on for while given the weakness in China.

My thoughts and rationale would be

1. The skills shortage and our relative international attractiveness will continue to drive up wages. We should be happy to pay more for frontline health workers.

2. As a result inflation will stay high and interest costs will need to stay at current levels for another year.

3. Our trade deficit will weaken our currency even with high interest rates. This will drive imported inflation.

4. House prices move sideways for several years due to interest rates but rents might pick up as students and immigration flows increase.  

5. Not worth commenting on the political prediction but we all think it’s time to try someone else even if they are no better.

I’m not really a prediction type person but I will give my current thinking in terms of odds:

• soft landing: 50%. Reserve banks get on top of inflation and we see either small growth or a small contraction in 2023. 
• hard landing: 30%. Reserve banks can’t contain inflation and have to keep raising the OCR until it really hurts. 
• a good year: 20%. Labour have provided very good economic growth before when the naysayers thought otherwise. Maybe the reserve bank gets inflation under control and we get good growth. 

Predictions...

~ Big overshoot from RBNZ. 1 n 2 year rates hit 8% by mid year and stay there for year end.

~ National ACT power sharing deal after Nats don't get a majority. JA resigns after the loss.

~ Auckland and Wellington continue to lead the residential market down. I`d go a further 10% in 2023 but the real losers will be in the new build areas in commuter zones. 

~ Nats reverse the 10 year bright line test and put it back to 2 years. I don't think they will touch the foreign buyer ban.

~ Nats kill 3 Waters

~ Nats kill the Ute tax

~ Winston Peters retires after failing to win a seat again

~ England win the Ashes. Not really :)

Well done Labour you have done a fantastic job.

That's coming from someone that was blue for 50 years.

Not going back any time soon.

Very,Very high chance they will be in government this time next year they have my vote.

Kiwi,s need to be more optimistic of how well we are doing we are the lucky country.

But what about predictions for something important?

RWC, Sept Oct 2023 in France:  All Blacks eliminated by the host nation in pool rounds.

1) Immigration, international students and tourism uptick but not enough to offset downside risk.

2) Labour shortage continues upward pressure on wages and inflation. The RBNZ hike once more by 25bps in February and rub that out by year end 2023 signalling the bottom of the housing market retreat.

3) Housing has done 60% of it’s declines but more to come due to the OCR, it will be more predicable and stable but still down until election time. 7-9% Auckland city, 5-6% rest of he country (nominal).

4) National / ACT will get in but not by as much as speculated. The first year or tow will be wasted reversing policy rather than making a difference.

5) Share markets will remain subdued. China will weigh the global economy down. Investors will need to wait until 2024 when a global recovery, infused by a resolution in Ukraine will signal the start of a strong rally.

6) NZ out in the semis. Northern hemisphere final in the RWC. First female British Lions series will be launched and will be well received. 

7) Inflation will drop but will still be 3-4% by year end 2023. Under control but not in the required range so a small drop in OCR will happen (25-50bps) more as a signal of optimism than a change in landscape.

1. Fossil fuel shortages in NZ. Diesel mainly.

2. Economy to tank due to 1. above with Q3 GDP -2.5%. 

3. Robbo will blame 2. above due to 9 years of neglect from 2008-17.

4. Everyone laughs.

5. Change of govt with Peters not being queen maker as Robbo will be leading Labour 

Not so much of a prediction but wish.

The NZX and NYSE soar to great heights or even fly 10% higher so that all the shares i've been buying over the last 2/3 months can be sold tax free at a profit.

Just a small buyer so won't show up on the tax radar.

Ok here goes...

1. Economists will have another dreadful year, with every data point being released continuing to surprise them. TA will move full time to Australia to escape the backlash as rates spike higher...

2. A covid scare, the suckers not done yet - more vaccines also need to be sold. There will be another push for everyone to get vaccinated given waning immunity... Lock downs will be strongly suggested from lunatics like Baker but the public wont take it. Masks will be a regular sighting for a period of time.

3. CBDC will be more mainstream, there will be more talks around the benefits of needing it. Your average Joe Blogg will be taking about it.

4. Towards mid-end of year, RBNZ will loosen policy around low deposit lending & relax LVR rules. Rates will spike early in the year, before slightly coming back towards to end of the year. Short term rates will be higher than long term rates... House prices will flat line.

5. Labour won't win the election, Jacinda will stand down to spend time with family - shortly after have a new job at UN. The wedding still won't happen, ask the Nanny. Luxon will make an idiot of himself, prove completely out of touch and also stand down.

My prediction is that the current account deficit will increase further than the 7.8% what it now is due higher import requirements (mainly fuel). Exports growth will continue but below the growth of imports. (We have really shoot ourselves in the foot by allowing Marsden Point to close!) The OBEGAL for the current year will show a deficit bigger than 10 Billion mainly due to a less tax revenue than forecasted. I predict that the new Nats government will reign in spending as one of the first things to do but it will not lower the government deficit enough. Therefore far more pressure on government bond auctions with foreign investors demanding increasing premiums and higher interest rates for longer. The NZD will remain in a band of 0.60 - 0.62 USD but will drop against other currencies.

Labour to win in 2023

Stanford and Willis will fight it out after Luxon resigns post election, Ditto Seymour.

Softish landing for house prices - due in part to obscene replacement costs.

All Blacks to squeak home if Jordan at 15.

I predict that Lorde won't release a decent song in 2023

Received a 2023 forecast from Michael B... REA

Most real estate agents will be setting goals for a promising year ahead and real estate will be a hot topic.



During the last 24 hours, I have been swamped with email inquiries from the new lead-in property in Parnell.



Definitely a heads-up for a good start to the New Year.

I wont make any predictions for the NZ economy. To many half wits pulling the levers to even begin to guess where it could go! However the elephant in the room is our balance of payments, There does not seem to be anyone taking this seriously. It is a massive problem. 

One prediction I will make. The UN will NEVER give Adhern a top job! Helen Clarke couldn't get there and her intellect is light years ahead of our current moth! The UN is mostly controlled by a voting block African males and they wont want a bar of Adhern.

Last years predictions and self-ratings....

- Political

Labour to keep fluffing it, Luxon to miss the mark, polls end the year slightly more in Nat's favour than currently, with Labour and Act down 

5/10

- Economy

Goes flat but avoids full noise recession, consumers less fluffy due to housing market dropping 15-20%.

4/10

- Interest rates

RBNZ to lose it's mettle on increases and keep it flat after 1 more increase, driven by inflation slowdown, and unemployment increasing slightly.

2/10

- Stockmarket

Rough ride through the year, ending pretty much where it is now, no significant new listings on NZX50

4/10

- Covid

At the end of the year, predict we'll be living with restrictions around travel into NZ, masks and large events.

1/10

NOW FOR 2023 PREDICTIONS (perhaps ignore after last years results!)

- Political

Labour/Greens/Maori party to form a coalition and lead after the election - National loses momentum when their policies start coming out, and don't appeal to middle NZ, AND Labour takes the wind out of their sales with a tax-free threshold, making the election a debate about who needs the tax cuts (voters less selfish than Nats realise)

- Economy

Recession here and abroad. Unemployment to end year around 6.5%, and will still be travelling in the wrong direction. Building industry to go tits up as noone is starting any builds, and plenty are getting finished. Multiple big construction company failures (Williams Corp & Du Val by August).

- Interest rates

RBNZ to go 75bps at first meeting, go no further as the wheels start falling off, end the year with OCR at 3%.

- Stock market

NZX50 ending year 5% above current rates, as bond yields fall, another year of no significant new listings.

- Property

Accelarating declines. Another 14% off the Index, Residential property still won't add up as an investment.

- Inflation

Ending the year at 2%, Tradeable inflation to fall off a cliff, non-tradeable to be above band, as usual.

Fine, I'll make a serious prediction. From today's interest.co.nz article:

The picture changed significantly in 2022. While financialisation continued, the [Global Balance Sheet] shrank relative to [global] GDP for the first time in decades.

That is monetary deflation by definition; less money chasing the same amount of goods and services.

My prediction is that in 2023, deflation willl rear its ugly head on a global scale.

Predictions:

I feel that something at some point during the year has to break. Something quite big, but not quite a Lehman brother’s moment.

 I can’t see how interest rates can be raised so quickly without something breaking somewhere. 

 After that thing breaks actual fear will start, but employment won’t plummet like other recessions cushioning the blow.

 After the fast moving nature of all this plays out and central banks seem a bit frozen, we will start to have real conversations about how different policy is needed to control economy’s as ocr and the likes are too slow to react and not board enough. 

 

The AI Singularity happens, years sooner than expected.  Suddenly, GST falls, capital gains and land taxes are in place, Peter Thiel's citizenship is revoked, and real action on global heating ramps up.

It's difficult to make predictions where there are a few major unknowns - but here we go...

• Oil prices and CPI: The oil price is the key driver of prices throughout our economy - petrol, diesel, fertilisers and plastics (and therefore food, transport etc). In fact, there is no better leading indicator of inflation in NZ than oil price (WTI Crude particularly). I suspect that the Saudis will hold the price between $70 and $85 (low enough to stifle non-OPEC development, high enough to coin it in), but we will see a fair few destabilising swings in and outside this range depending on what happens in Ukraine. My view is that NZ CPI will come down from 7% this quarter to around 5% in mid 2023 and be around 4% by year end. Rent Index will come down to just over 3% by year end
• Shock and Orr - What RBNZ do with interest rates will have almost zero impact on inflation. Our central bank is just trying to maintain its credibility amongst other people who place their faith in the false gods of reckonomics. I suspect that RBNZ will just keep our interest rates above the US Fed's given that we have a huge trade deficit and we are relying more and more on relatively attractive bond yields to support the NZD
• Recession: Govt net spending is dropping, and I think we will see more loans paid off then are taken out in Q1 2023. Tourist spend is about halfway back to normal, which is giving us a small bump, but we are stuffed here. If Govt is not spending more than it is taxing back, and banks are creating less credit money than loan payments are destroying, then this inevitably leads to a contraction. Recession in 2023 is locked in unless Govt decide to go serious on green investment (they won't because they are all mouth and no trousers)

My predictions:

1. House prices continue a gradual downward slide, with vendors being unable to “give away” houses in winter being the focus on headlines.  The Hutt to be the epicentre of the crash, with people crying about how underwater they are with their Wainuiomata townhouse purchase. 

2. National and ACT to form a government, with ACT having a much greater say at the negotiating after taking out 15% of the vote. 

3.  National to make a U-turn on scrapping the Ute tax and bright line test.  Interest deductibility to be reintroduced and will give the property market a short shot of positivity, but will die out quickly as budding landlords won’t be able to get finance 

4. RBNZ will continue to crank up rates with no care of the consequences, killing consumer demand. 

1. Bond yields up

2. Paradoxically markets rise nominally

3. Crime stays centre of attention

4. Change in Gov kills 3-Waters. Slightly less media coverage of ‘racial discrimination’ and the blight of colonisers stops getting centre spread. Yawn 

5. Robertson declares himself a type 2 diabetic

2023

The world realises that without co-ordinated central banks the natural risk free interest rate is much higher then previously was under QE,  maybe its 5-6%.

Any risky asset class that cannot make 7-9% yield, reverts in face to values in line with the new risk free rates.

Gold goes up, full your boots, it does what crypto promised, ie a store of value, and cannot be printed.

Stock markets plunge on earnings revisions.

Best asset to hold - GOLD

Worst asset to hold NZ Property - needs to revert to risk free returns (5.25% 2 year term deposits on offer today 30/12/2022)   IMF says we are winning in all the wrong ways.

NZ farming has a debt crisis.....

NZ housing goes into negative equity in a big way by the end of 2023 we are back at 2018 values.  2023 is not the bottom, its lower.

Putin loses power, someone else is in command by year end.

Nats / Act win.  Winnie does not make 5%.

House prices will continue to slide, and despite the Reserve Bank dancing lightly on the OCR there will be increasing numbers of people struggling with their debts. This will lead to relationship stresses and breakups causing the bulk of the first wave of forced sales, which further depresses home values and leads to the second wave of forced sales as a much larger cohort find themselves in negative equity and utterly unable to even tread water.

The election will be one of a poisoned chalice, with all parties aware of the pending shtstorm and not wanting to be holding the bag and wearing the blame when it happens (regardless of blame actually being accumulated by all ruling parties over the last 15 years for failing to address the issue headon).

China's huge covid wave grants temporary immunity to the bulk of those who survive it, allowing China to quickly get back on with supplying the world with pharmaceuticals, tech gear, and general junk as before. Their construction industry will be in doldrums all year.

Trump will be increasingly recognised as a c##t, and his rabid followers will slowly start to slink back into the shadows as his reputation gets more and more tarnished.

Late 2023 Tesla will release a smaller EV suited only as a town car which will hog a depressed vehicle market where few people can afford the bigger EVs.

After the election  - ACT/NAT win - super age limits are raised and planting pines to save the planet will be scrapped in NZ. Ute tax gone as well as EV subsidy

Global leaders start to go cold on climate change policies as they see the negative economic impacts - more focus on sound environmental policies  

China recession/deflation saves our Reserve bank Gov as imported inflation disappears - assisted by overstocked warehouses needing to discount to clear stock

But Govt deficits and negative BOP drive financing costs up so house prices down further, business failures increase, wages stop rising

Ukrainians drive Russians out so much turmoil in Russia - Putin falls out of a window. Trump convicted so much turmoil there as well 

I don't want to predict but wish that the people of our nation get some intelligence this year and start doing meaningful things in their life which are original. Please no more sheep follow sheep in the country. 

Let's each one of us pledge to do something original or have a new idea to implement. Go back to study to discover or invent. Let's 2023 be year of original ideas in NZ. 

My predictions from last year -

by Northern Lights | 31st Dec 21, 2:38pm

1. NZ average house prices will have an annual rise of 9 per cent in 2022*

2. The govt will go back to the drawing board with 3 waters not because they want to but because the political damage to their causes will not be worth the potential gains.*

3. China will start to realise that popping a credit bubble in a time of demographic decline is a really stupid thing to do. A slow reversal of the policy will take shape then as nothing happens a panicky ramping up of stimulus will ensue.

4. Biden will put together packages from his Build Back Better bill more likely to pass and keep the US show on the road.

5. 2022 will be a bit of a holding pattern year as a majority of political leaders start to read the present as a time not to take risks and do things just because they can rather sensing that the underpinings are fragile.*

To assess

!. * Prediction fail

2. * Prediction fail

Labour pushed 3 waters through and now have to deal with the political damage.

3. Prediction pass

4. Prediction pass

5. * Prediction fail

A majority of leaders ignored the warning signs and just did it anyhow.

1. Labour continue to push co-governance, with the media saying little. 

2. The media continue to hound national and act.

3. House prices continue to slide down, banks continue to reduce credit supply.

4. Sharemarkets continue to slide, driven by growth stocks. 

5. Gold price increases to record highs.

6. Headline inflation drops however inflation is still far to high. The media highlight the positive I.e. inflation down….10% to 9.8% (example)

7. Interest rates keep increasing in NZ in line with the US.

8. Major issues in the real economy, developers collapse, cafes bars and small retail collapse.

9. All parties agree to do the right thing and remove interest deductibility restrictions, but keep bright line. 

 

1. National to implode before the election sadly leaving labour a free run.

2. Balance of payments to get worse bad enough to see our creditors looking sideways.

3 Interest rates to head closer to 10 and look to remain high as inflation and risk continue on.

4. All Blacks struggle through to semi's and now out totally ungraciously.

Interest rates will have to rise significantly to fight all the supply inflation.

OCR will be 7.1 % by early 2024.

First OCR rate cut prior to the election.

House prices rising by the end of 2023 after bottoming out mid year.

Big lolly scramble by Labour in a desperate attempt to retain the govt benches...but what will it look like?

I predict with the average NZ wage being 56K and the average NZ house price at 990K (Sept 22) at a ratio of 17.6 that it will fall back to an affordable ratio of 3.

So therefore the average NZ house price will be 169K. A fall of 82%.

If the current linear trend continues (unlikely),

GDP/Recession - Q4(22), Q1, Q2 and possibly Q3(23) will have positive GDP releases so we won’t know if we’re in a recession for another 12 months. 

 

Unemployment to still be below the RBNZ’s “sustainable level” of circa 4.5% by Q3. 

 

Inflation to drop to 3.5% by year end. 

 

OCR to peak at 6% during H1, given the above, and hold there for the year. No drops during 2023. 

 

House prices to continue to drop all year. 

 

Random thoughts 

Credit Suisse could be a catalyst for another ‘08 style blow up. The FDIC meeting clips doing the rounds are somewhat interesting.

CBDC to be discussed more.

Ukraine vs Russia will still be going at the end of the year. 

Putin will still be President.

China won’t have invaded Taiwan.

National/ACT in power with ACT and TOP having their best results yet.



 

My predictions from last year:

-1: The NZ dollar will get slowly but steadily hammered over the course of the year, with inflation continuing to rise on imported goods. (Note: currently at 0.682 vs USD. Prediction: 0.5x by December.)

-2: wages will rise a little, but not enough to offset these price increases, or the effect of moderately higher interest rates. 

- 3: OCR: two rises of 0.25%. RB unable to raise further despite drowning NZD because of our extraordinary mortgage debt.

- 4: With households materially poorer due to inflation and higher interest rates, and with JC no longer a millstone around National's neck, Nats will poll higher than Labour by December. They will still have the massive problem of no natural coalition partner other than ACT - but ACT's current strength is a pool of National voters who will swing back to their natural home.

- 5: There will be problems in the new-build townhouse market, but the overall property market will be surprisingly resilient in nominal terms (even with negative real yields) as people would rather have money in a hard asset than a depreciating currency.

- 6: Stagnant year for the NZX.

- 7: US equities: unprofitable hype-stocks to get destroyed at some point, with a minor accompanying pullback on profitable tech. Overall indices to remain flat as that money gets rotated into safer names. 

- 8: 'Supply chain issues' will remain disturbingly persistent (because they're not just supply chain issues). Economists will continue to insist that continually rising prices are not inflation because inflation is increase of the money supply; the public will continue not to care about that fine distinction.

-9: China's internal political problems will become more obvious and they will appear less of an external threat. There will be/is a battle within the CCP between those who have made megabucks and want to continue the current model and those who think that hypergrowth is dead and consolidation is necessary (Xi's faction).

-10: the EU will face extreme internal tensions reminiscent of the Greek debt crisis, as Germany (and similar) faces extreme inflation while Italy (and similar) can't afford to raise rates. One or more "Northern" countries will make serious steps towards defecting from the bloc.

I'd give myself 7/10 there... bang on with a few of them!

For the year ahead:

-1: Labour to 'win' the next election but with a messy coalition and uncertain mandate that leaves them looking very fragile. Greens demanding more say on legislation. With an impossible job and rapidly declining popularity, JA steps down late 2023.

-2: Local housing market grinds to a halt and prices wobble downwards rather than crash. With no one willing to take a big loss, and no new entrants at current prices, transactions decline precipitously and the market remains stagnant. Current new developments sell for a marginal loss or hand developments over to Kainga Ora.

-3: USA sees a housing correction. It doesn't effect us directly but keeps economic sentiment muted for them.

-4: Unemployment remains low, but the real situation varies wildly between industries. Lots of layoffs in hospo, low-level tech and professional services, and retail. Still a shortage of workers in physically demanding roles.

-5: $NZ to go back at least to where it was in October (c. $US 0.58) and probably lower.

-6: Inflation to ease but not disappear in the US (say 3%) while not easing elsewhere. NZ to suffer particularly because of rebounding fuel prices.

-7: China attempts 'normalisation' ie a return to the relative happiness and stable international relationships of pre-Covid years. They are not entirely successful because of internal economic problems.

-8: More direct government intervention to prop up strategically important local businesses that are at risk of collapse due to rising prices in NZ, as well as local governments finding themselves in financial trouble.

-9: Sharemarket: US to have another leg down and then stabilise by mid-2023. NZX to fare much worse.

-10: Crypto: the vaporisation of everything except BTC and Ethereum is completed. Binance goes down, followed by Tether, at which point the unnatural peg of BTC at c.$US16000 is broken and it crumbles down to perhaps $5k. By years' end it finds an organic, Tether-free price level somewhere $5-$10k.

Good luck, Happy New Year, and thanks to anyone who's read this far!

Ok here are mine:

• I think inflation will reverse faster than expected leading to the reserve bank revising down the forecast for 2024. By late 2023 I expect we will be talking about interest rate cuts and see that in the 2 year rates.

• National will win the election.

• Ukraine will win the war before the end of 2023 or the stalemate will be very close to Feb 2022 borders.

• EVs will go up and up, Tesla will stabilise but not recover.

• China will become increasingly focused on domestic tensions rather than international adventures. Chinas property and population reckonings will continue. 

Longer term, the big story is going to be population, population, population. With China’s population peaking, the concern will shift from immigration to ageing populations. Countries will start to realise there is a scarcity of young people to import and start competing to bring people in rather than keeping them out. China will start shedding manufacturing because they can’t deliver the cheap and abundant labour, this will boost countries like Vietnam and Mexico and drive on-shoring via automation. NZ will be no exception and the boomers who are used to be served by the younger generations will need to pay increasing amounts for that service.

My ideal 2023 for NZ predictions would be:



Property continues to fall to become what it is actually worth, not a speculative fomo tax haven in which younger generations borrow 10-20x leverage for 30+ years to own.

NZ revamps the welfare system and refocuses spending on urgent sectors that are falling apart. 



Flat capital gains tax on all assets, treat it all the same. 



But we know this is not what will happen



RBNZ will quickly avert rates in the fear of a major recession or will very slowly add pain to balance the card tower so it doesn't fall.



NZ will continue to bleed young smart kiwis and will happily import poorer country natives to make up the hole, further causing cultural divide and tension



Inflation will either rise or very very slowly fall, with this I don't see crime slowing down at all.



FHB that did 5%-10% deposits may go under and be forced to sell



Crypto will drop a wee bit further and float around 10-15k BTC price. Doesn't stop the DeFi innovation going on

Can't comment on stocks much as I really don't touch that market at all

I would like to (possibly foolishly) make a prediction for in two years time, i.e. 2024, simply because, as I live through more economic cycles, I realise they always have a tendency to last longer than logically expected, until the sudden downturn occurs.

I think 2024 will be worse than 2022 and 2023 (god am I sounding DGM!), I see a worldwide recession in 2024, with crypto, stocks, real estate and interest rates dropping markedly.  For the smart, brave and cashed up investors, there will be great bargain buys in 2024.

Let's see in two years time!

IN 2023 I see shortages of some food and prices rising further.

Ok, here are my horoscopes

Crypto

Binance goes bankrupt, CZ disappears

SBF goes to jail, shaves his head and learns rap

Crypto mostly collapses, btc drops further but survives in 2023

FTX usernames released in bankruptcy proceedings with some surprise investors

Real estate

NZ housing another 15% down, with possible modest upturn and stabilisation in spring 2024

Other countries follow suit, but we lead the way.

Inflation and interest rates

Persistent and sticky all year. Realisation that ultra low interest rates are now over.

Equities

Another big leg down before Q3 2023, then stabilises toward the end of the 2023. Good buying opportunities from Q2 2023

Surprises

At least one Lehman style surprise

Others

Boom year for debt collectors and private prisons

Chaos in buy now, pay later

Musk sells Twitter to Microsoft, makes excuses

Predictions for 2023 are pretty easy to make as the Reserve Bank announced its future moves only weeks ago. It will continue to raise the OCR in its attempt to smother inflation. This will result in business failures, job losses and significant difficulty for those caught up in the aftermath. As interest rates increase people will not be able to borrow like they used to. Houses, boats , used cars and toys such as jet skis will continue to drop in price as people try to offload them and get rid of some debt. It is gong to be a painful year for many. Why didn’t they get ready for rising interest rates rather than splurge on unnecessary crap. Cash will be king as deposit rates go higher. At some stage it will be a good time to buy a better car, a better house, a bigger boat but that time is some way off. What is coming will make th gfc look pretty tame. 

Actually not sure why anyone's making predictions when it's all in the 'prophets scrolls'...

- National will win the election but will make amendments to the interest deductibility.. not reinstate it fully. My prediction is 50% 

- property market will stabilise at the arse end of 2023 but will have fallen another 15%. 

- DTI will be announce for early 2024 at a sensible  x7 income. 

 

- Tesla will go out of business 

- Luxon will become PM but will be GAFF prone and flip floppy on pre election policies 

“To be uncertain is to be uncomfortable, but to be certain is to be ridiculous.”

~ Socrates

Last years predictions below. Putin went further than I expected. I was right on Rishi, the relaxation of immigration, increase in emigration, COVID developments  and the housing market. I think 2023 is much harder to call. So I will not be making any predictions. I will be taking a fairly cautious approach the next 12 months.

 

2022 predictions. 

• Politics:

  Grant Robertson to become labour leader and PM. Jacinda Ardern takes a well earned break from politics before embarking on international career. WRONG

  Judith Collins leaves Parliament. WRONG

  Russia and China continue to play brinkmanship games in order to boost internal political power, distract their populations from failing economies and to win concessions from the US and Europe. Turkey start causing issues in their neighbourhood for similar reasons. PARTIALLY CORRECT 
  
  
  
  Rishi Sunak to become UK Prime Minister. CORRECT 

  Economy:

  Supply chain issues worsen. Both importers and exporters find business more difficult. Markets consolidate as only the big players can secure affordable shipping rates. PARTIALLY CORRECT 

  Towards the end of the year immigration settings will be loosened in order to steady the falling housing market and bring in talent. Emigration rates will also increase in the 18-30 age group. CORRECT 

  Covid:

  Treatments improve further. Less reliance on injections. Trend towards managing within the community continues. Border open without restriction by 2023. CORRECT

   

Pretty happy with last years predictions. More or less all there with the exception of JA resigning. 2022 follows...

• More inflation. A lot more. Businesses push 10-15% price increases to keep staff. This is already visible in Medical, IT, Retirement and Construction. More sectors follow. This will repeat annually untill interest rates lift to slow it down.
• Labours is happy that wages rise. Rises are destroyed by increased cost of everything. This especially hits the retired, beneficiaries and teachers, nurses, police etc. Labour secretly happy at higher tax take as tax points dont change.
• Govt needs more tax. Greens pressure a wealth/land tax. Labours tries to hide this agenda till post election.
• Great resignation gets going. Mass exodus of medical sector to Aussie. More and more IT sector workers start teleworking into Aussie.
• Wage and price spiral puts lots of pressure on company profits. This equals less tax.
• Govt/RBNZ caught between a rock and a hard place. Rates lift to 6-7% to slow wage and price spiral. Housing tanks last years speculative gains. Housing lobby noises goes into overdrive.
• Banks tighten lending more to protect themselves. Over leveraged get a margin call.
• Jacinda pulls the ejection handle for a UN gig. Robertson takes over.
• Immigration and Covid are related. Who knows what will happen.
• Let's hope China and the US avoid a punch up while playing chicken in the water around Taiwan.
• Omicron is everywhere quickly. Unvaxed question themselves when the ventilator appears bedside

Collective shitting of pants by the great unwashed in late Feb early March when all the cheer and exuberance of the Xmas/New Year period has to be paid for and the cupboards bare.

Price reductions on many everyday items at the big yellow sheds after a year of gouging the public on prices(in collusion with big dairy).

Desperation from Labour,courting all and Sundry with ever increasing unrepayable bribes,be it monetary,racial and social.

The middle refusing to bow to the unrelenting attack by the left by continuing to do what gets you marginally ahead in this country and also swinging to the right ,Nats Act and NZF.

Ardern to disappear after defeat and reappear at next year's Rhythm and Vines as guest DJ.

Michael Wood next Labour leader.

Arsenal lose last two games of season handing title to Citeh with Haaland scoring 55 Prem goals.

The dirty monied trophy dodgers from Newcastle to finish in 9th, once again proving they are no more than the Spurs of the North.

OCR peak at 5.75%-6% by September 2023, with a slow and small decrease in 2024 to a level around the 5% mark. 

by Kate | 31st Dec 21, 1:38pm

The forecast for accommodation supplement costs will rise from $2.5 billion (actual) to $3.0 billion (forecast) and the government will subsequently introduce rental market price regulation coming into effect in December 2022. 

No predictions on the form that regulation will take (but I'm working on it - lol).

A/S costs did rise but the government isn't even talking about regulation and, I'm still working on it. 

What's the cheese commercial again - something about 'good things take time'?

I'll go with that.

Happy start to 2023, may it deliver what each hopes for.

The diversity expressed in the posts has been enjoyable to read - thanks.

My prediction (desperate hope) is balance of payments (deficit) gains the serious consideration it warrants and has failed toreceivein 2022.

I like to think of the national economy as similar to running a household.  When more income is coming in than costs going out ....all peachy. If the reverse,  then (to keep with my horticultural theme) it's a bad case of terminal brown rot.

As I ponder the last year or so I'm inclined to see the NZ economy as a spinning top (money cycling around), very close to the point of losing all momentum (strangled supply of export earnings) and falling off the table.

So just like managing my household deficit requires either growth of income (export earnings  - exporting my labour for a wage income) or cuts to expenditure to bring it into balance, so NZ must do similar. Just don't sell any more crown owned assets - we're already being bled dry by offshore ownership.

Bought a WSJ subscription. Lots of stories about inventory gluts and ongoing/coming waves of redundancies. From microchips to PCs to fertilizer to clothes. The pullback is well under way, don't let a year-end domestic spike fueled by a few days of good weather fool you. Interest rates will start to come down by June 30. 

The economy 'grew' because 'inflation'.

2022 predictions 

1 variant omicron will make its way into the community and not before time, following nz opening international borders the virus will escape. Complete

2 omicron being a less severe form will cause the pandemic response to collapse. Contact tracing will be seen as irrelevant, those with symptoms will not bother to be tested, merchants will not do the my vaccine pass checks for fear of loss of customers Complete

3 housing prices will not fall. The hpi and median will continue to increase albeit at a slower pace. Construction will begin to slow due to financing seizing up as well as inflation taking hold. New home buyers and banks will be  nervous to commit. Builders and developers will nearly fully complete projects before offering for sale at fixed prices

2023 - The worst is behind us now, though the coming election will keep the sales market unsettled. If Lab win its the status quo, and a Nat win will be positive for a small house price rally. Market participants have had time to mentally adjust to the new economic environment of higher inflation and interest rates. Barring an invasion of Taiwan or deepening Ukraine crisis, house prices will probably pick up slightly by years end.

4 rents will rise strongly, because of fewer homes both new and existing, being bought by investors. And for many other reasons such as increased demand after the international borders reopen and foreign students and tourists return. More homes will be used for short term lets thus removing them from the rental pool. Labour has unwittingly and fundamentally changed the structure of the rental market

2023 - Rents will rise because of fewer investors thus falling rental stock and greater demand coming back to the market mainly through international students and migrants. 5300 Auckland Stock level has peaked

I predict that the Wellington Phoenix won't win a game in 2023.

• Labour to lose election
• Ukraine war to still be going
• China will begin to destablilise
• Supply issues to increase
• inflation to remain high
• Unemployment to rise
• Majority of comments will be about housing.

I notice that very few are predicting 2023 to be a good year. Covid is well and truly over, supply chains etc should be back to normal, NZ will have many more houses built, Ukraine war could end, some good technology advancements may be coming. Why all the doom and gloom?

A bit late the comments party but I have just read through  them and have not seen one reference to primary industries, we have completely forgotten where the fuel for our economy comes from . 

I'm not a farmers are the backbone of the country blah blah type (every sector plays a part) but come on.

Spending in rural NZ has slowed significantly (alot of ods being extended just to pay operating expenses ) ,  this will flow on. 

“A 40-year bull market,” says William Eigen, a bond investor at JPMorgan Asset Management and one of those rare exceptions who had positioned his fund to avert the pain to come, “does funny things to you.” It sears core principles into the brain that are hard to erase. Ever since the late 1980s, young traders, investors and analysts have been schooled in the ways of the Fed Put, a belief that policy makers were always there to prop up markets in moments of turbulence — by scaling back plans to raise rates or outright cutting them — and, therefore, you should buy the dip.  Any rate increases, (others) said, would come in increments so small that financial markets would barely feel them." And yet, despite how badly they got burned by underestimating inflation, many in the investing community remain convinced that Powell, for all his tough talk, is getting ready to make that pivot. “If you were rich and famous by the end of 2020, you were famous because of low rates. Your business, your fortune, your success was tied to low rates.” This has made it hard for investors to rethink their approach. Rising rates, and the way they force investors to discount future corporate earnings, are particularly damaging. “When you see the world changing you have to (change your) position because (otherwise) you're hoping and praying every day that the world isn't changing.” There are some signs that the re-education of Wall Street is slowly underway.

The current internal disfunction of the Labour Party will remain concealed by the media.  That Ardern is not the real leader will not be known to most.

But at sometime it will all fall apart, but a while yet.

2017 predictions. Only one mention of Ardern.

https://www.interest.co.nz/news/85394/we-want-your-opinion-about-what-l…

In 2022:

1. Jacinda to resign. WRONG
2. House prices fall and a credit crunch sparks a review of CCCFA CORRECT
3. Inflation goes wild as RBNZ pause rate hikes in the face of house prices declining CORRECT
4. A crypto meltdown happens when assets held by 'pegged' coins turn out to be bogus CORRECT
5. The price of physical metals go through the roof HALF RIGHT
6. Peloton is the stock of 2022 rising 250%. Locally, A2 Milk and Sky TV make big comebacks. A2 and Sky meh, peloton, LOL

2023

1. National win the election, realise they cant afford to unwind many policies.

2. House prices fall further, average price down to mid 700s.

3. Stock market capitulates led by Apple and Mcdonalds, rebounds in an epic santa rally late 2023. 

4. The fed pause rate hikes and the market FALLS. People believe the fed overcooked things. 

5. The war in Ukraine ends. I hope.

My humble predictions (ranked in order of risk).

1. A serious nuclear accident (10% probability).  Either as a result of the Ukrainian shelling of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, or as a result of a US sponsored “Ukrainian victory” which would necessarily result in nuclear annihilation of western Ukraine by Russia.  Either mechanism would be catastrophic for humanity potentially resulting in hundreds of millions of deaths from the poisoning of a large area of the worlds food production coupled with radiation induced cancer in the northern hemisphere.
2. A huge rally in the share market (5% probability).  Debt deflation causes central banks to engage in easy money policies again however this also coincides with skyrocketing consumer prices leading to a loss in confidence in the purchasing power of fiat currency by the general public.  Everything skyrockets from gold to the share market to cans of baked beans, as people try to get rid of cash and buy anything real.
3. Inflation becomes deflation (70% probability). As the global recession grinds on, and because interest rates have risen so sharply recently, global loan initiation will slow down.  Because aggregate demand is equal to income plus the change in debt, the global money supply will have to contract if there isn't any new massive government spending. 
4. Scarcity (60% probability).  Broken supply chains and hostility among resource rich countries will crimp production and result in new and continued shortages of essential chemical inputs to various consumer products.
5. An apocalyptic share market crash (20% probability).  The contracting money supply has an adverse feedback effect on stocks via reduced buybacks, and declining margin debt.  Resource scarcity and increasing input costs reduce corporate profitability, while a tapped out consumer reduces sales.  That combination exposes the inappropriately high p/e ratios of many stocks.  Finally, a Leeman type event spooks the horses and starts the stampede.
6. A continued realization at the damage caused by the mrna covid19 vaccines (95% probability).  The unusually high excess death rate among younger people, the weakening of peoples immune systems leading to cancer, Epstein-Barr reinfection, Herpes reinfection, and shingles etc. will be reflected in peer reviewed publications this year.     
7. Nothing eventful (75% probability).  We muddle through this year.  Ukraine conflict grinds on in the background.  S&P down because of growth stocks but value outperforms.  National and Act win the next election with a large margin.

Ford ranger repos spike.

Youth unemployment.

Miniature Nuclear Fusion breakthrough (creating the fastest growing company in history).

Civil War in Russia.

My net worth balloons.

Housing sales trickle.

North Korea hits neighbour with a stray nuke and is dismantled.

Gnats win.

Oil state becomes insolvent.

UK PM resigns.

Pope steps down.

Covid evaporates, everywhere.

David Attenborough gets Nobel prize.

Cure for several types of cancer.

USTs hit 7%.

I'm surprised that there are few calls for large property price declines in 23.



My predictions -



There's no "soft landing."

US Fed continues to raise rates and either holds them high or pivots due to something big and systemic breaking (different and bigger than Lehman, i.e. a developed nation sovereign debt crisis).



Inflation remains a challenge. The RBNZ continues to mirror the US Fed with interest rate rises. RBNZ and Politics prioritise fighting inflation and holding up the exchange rate over struggling mortgage holders.

The effects of recession and stagflation hit the wider economy and unemployment increases.

House prices (NZ HPI) take a big leg down, dropping another 20% - 25% to return to pre-pandemic levels or below.

Any rate pivot due to a financial crisis will not change the downward trend in house prices.

There are a lot of things that I would like to happen and I think that the trap with this is that wish lists becomes ones predictions. 

-I would like to see house prices drop say 20 % this year and at least 40% peak to trough over several years. (nationals election campaigning and possible election will reverse the current fall.)

-I would like to see some of our low payed workers receive at least a 10% wage rise and about 35% for nurses. 

-I would like to see immigration heavily curtailed to give rise to the necessary wage rises, high interest rates and property price drops. 

-I would like to see all the businesses that are dependent on low wage immigrant labor, either lift their productivity so that they can pay kiwis a decent wage or go broke; we do not need them. We cannot afford to keep funding the housing, infrastructure and services that these low pay workers and their extended families require.

-I would like to see our government meaningfully address the lack of competition with powerful results.

This way we might have some hope of stopping our young Kiwis from leaving the country.  I suspect we will see very high outward migration as there is no hope here for young ones as things are where they are having to compete with low wage immigrants for work, pay crazy prices for anything in our non competitive monopolist economy and try to get ahead in our crazy property market.

Do we have hope of any of this happening.  Not a show.  I will predict that.

I will also predict that our hospital system will collapse, perhaps about the middle of the year.   

OK, let's make predictions, nothing to lose, not my job, not being paid for that. :)

1. House prices will continue to go down, by more than any financial institution has been predicting (basically same as last year scenario with forecasts revised for the worst every couple of months). I simply don't see what could make it different.

2. OCR to reach between 5.5 and 6% in Q2 then plateau as it seems inflation peak is behind us. What has been done so far must be effective enough, only lagging due to delays from RBNZ to realise what's happening then delay for new (higher) rates to hit households.

3. Labour to be barely re-elected

4. NZ vs France final

I predict that 2023 will see 1yr fixed interest rates hitting 8.0% by the end of the year.

Do I want to see it happen? Absolutely not, I cannot afford it.

Do I think it will happen? Quite likely, given how slow they report back on how the lever changing has been affecting the economy 

The election year will bring in a lot about China. The NZ Chinese diaspora will be on the menu again. 

If the Gnats can dominate the polls by doing and saying very little then, when the election vote buying begins, they will win by a landslide.

​​​​​​Ardern will be banished to the idiots in the UN never to be seen again and lambasted for all the destruction she has caused 

she will be remembered within the shadows of racial divide, economic recession, crime, poverty's, dishonesty, health and education catastrophe , housing collapse...

Poverty Bay will be renamed Ardern Bay but in Maori  one uwha huakore ( you can translate this.)

House prices will crash due to supply outgrowing demand and new stock not selling. Look for another 20%>

Cuddles Costa will be gone by september.

Covid 23 will arrive, be managed poorly like 23, and the world will ignore Mr Baker and suckie Wiles.

National will cut the public service by 30%

Maori will still be claiming traaty billions and blaming whities for thier modern day issues . Despite having all the money!

Womans sport will crash as crowds dwindle.

Our best sportsman will finally be recognized!.   Stand up Mr Adams

EVs will be deemed a dumb idea as charging demands and electricty supply compromises charging capacity.( Re California right now)

The greenie morons will continue to ban road cars while high polluting planes continue polluting the planet.

Elvis will be found in syria.

Putin will be overthrown by the people and be assassinated.

​​

10% inflation, and a decline in the housing market as debt-laden owners and those affected by the crypto crash bail out. Russia heads towards becoming a failed state.