Auckland housing sales for May at nine year low but prices holding up - REINZ

Property

Auckland house sales volumes down 22% in May compared to a year ago, but around the rest of the country the drop was just 1.4%

14th Jun 19, 9:31am by Greg Ninness

The Auckland housing market is on a weak footing as it heads into winter, with sales in the region hitting their lowest level for the month of May since 2010, according to the the latest data from the Real Estate Institute of NZ.

The REINZ recorded 1925 sales in Auckland in May, down 22% [corrected from 7.8% in the first version of this article] compared to 2462 sales in May last year.

Across the rest of the country the decline in sales was more modest, with May sales in all regions except Auckland down just 1.4% compared to May last year.

Price movements were also relatively modest.

In Auckland, the median price rose from $850,000 in April to $860,000 in May, and has remained within the range of $805,000 to $880,000 since April 2017 (see median price chart below).

The national median price was $578,000 in May, down for the second month in a row from the record high of $585,000 achieved in March.

Outside of Auckland the regions with the biggest declines in sales in May compared to May last year were West Coast -32.3% which was the lowest for the month of May in three years, Manawatu/Whanganui -13.1% and the lowest for the month of May in four years, and Canterbury -6.2% which was also the lowest for the month of May in four years.

However three regions recorded strong growth in sales in May compared to a year earlier - Tasman +19.7%, Taranaki +7.3% and Waikato +6.1%.

The number of homes being sold by auction is also declining.

The REINZ said auctions accounted for 10.4% of all sales throughout the country in May, down from 12.8% in May last year.

However in Auckland auctions accounted 18.2% of all sales in May, down from 20.7% in May last year.

The latest figures suggest buyers will have a stronger hand in negotiations over winter, because while sales volumes were down in May compared to a year ago, the total number of homes available for sale rose.

The REINZ said 25,895 residential properties were available for sale throughout the country in May, up 5.8% compared to a year ago.

The interactive charts below track the monthly median selling prices and sales volumes for all regions.

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

Median price - REINZ

Select chart tabs

Source: REINZ

Volumes sold - REINZ

Select chart tabs

Source: REINZ

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

120 Comments

by Yvil | 14th Jun 19, 9:34am 1560461656

Same news every month, less sales, prices steady

by nymad | 14th Jun 19, 9:42am 1560462159

Same news every month; Yvil chooses the narrative that suits him best.

by Yvil | 14th Jun 19, 9:45am 1560462329

Not really, sales volume in NZ ARE DOWN, prices in NZ ARE STEADY, (actually slightly up). It's not narrative that suits me, it is what is happening in NZ, just read the REINZ report.

by nymad | 14th Jun 19, 9:50am 1560462603

So, by implication variance in median is also up?
And when controlling for heterogeneous effects, prices are down?

That is the correct narrative.

by Pragmatist | 14th Jun 19, 10:07am 1560463649

Data says otherwise, the 3 month NZ HPI change is -0.8%, they certainly aren't up. Excluding Auckland they are flat for the quarter.
Auckland definitely heading down, Christchurch -1.1% for the quarter, Wellington (Region and city) both down for the quarter

Whangarei, Invergiggle, Hamilton and Palmerston north, Dunners are the ones with growth for the quarter..

by Miguel | 14th Jun 19, 11:04am 1560467085

Are HPI figures adjusted for seasonality? I always thought they weren't, so I'm hesitant to look at short term trends.

by Pragmatist | 14th Jun 19, 11:12am 1560467542

Good question, I don't know. Although seasonal adjustments are something I still find baffling, the idea is straightforward, but the results/mechanics are not. The Auckland Median YoY is +1.2%, but the seasonally adjusted median is up 0.9% YoY. So what are they actually adjusting for?

by nymad | 14th Jun 19, 11:18am 1560467935

No. The HPI is not seasonally adjusted - best to interpret at the annual level.

The Auckland Median YoY is +1.2%, but the seasonally adjusted median is up 0.9% YoY. So what are they actually adjusting for?
The whole process will smooth out the series, so variance is higher in the headline median index which is probably the effect you are seeing.

by Miguel | 14th Jun 19, 11:36am 1560468997

Thanks Nymad, good to know.

by Laminar | 14th Jun 19, 11:42am 1560469359

'Same news every month, less sales, prices steady', that would be my summary of the situation for the last two years and im negative on house prices, i dont see whats so controversial about it.

by Yvil | 14th Jun 19, 4:44pm 1560487463

Thanks Laminar, some commenters are so desperate to wish house prices tumbling

by Big_Data | 14th Jun 19, 5:21pm 1560489684

Planning to buy a home so I'm really only interested in HPI. Can someone share a link on where to get the most up-to-date HPI? No intention of getting into this market with prices heading south the way they're doing. Cheers

by Yvil | 15th Jun 19, 12:11pm 1560557473

"Planning to buy a home... - No intention of getting into this market..."

Which is it?

by tothepoint - d… | 14th Jun 19, 9:48am 1560462486

Hi Nymad,

Yvil is exactly correct.......

Nobody who visits here regularly would doubt that.

TTP

by nymad | 14th Jun 19, 9:53am 1560462811

With all due respect, there are very few days here when an Yvil comment is not corrected with facts.

by Yvil | 14th Jun 19, 10:43am 1560465813

Thanks nymad for stating "there are very few days here when an Yvil comment is not correct with facts" that's kind of you to recognise that my comments are mostly factual ; )

by Pragmatist | 14th Jun 19, 10:45am 1560465940

Yes, he phrased it poorly. I'm pretty sure "there are very few days here when a Yvil comment does not need to have factual inaccuracies highlighted and/or corrected by other posters" is more what nymad meant.

by Yvil | 14th Jun 19, 9:55am 1560462919

Sorry TTP but most who visit here would very much doubt I could ever be correct LOL

by nymad | 14th Jun 19, 9:56am 1560462998

I'd say that's more of a reflection on you than anyone else..

by Yvil | 14th Jun 19, 10:00am 1560463208

Thank you nymad, for business I strive not be part of the herd, I would be terrified if I had 30 thumbs up on a comment, it would positively tell me I need to change my thinking

by nymad | 14th Jun 19, 10:05am 1560463502

Excellent!
Everyone thumbs up Yvil's original comment.

by Pragmatist | 14th Jun 19, 10:20am 1560464458

I think I might look into how to write a chrome plugin. There are a couple of posters who's posts aren't worth the screen real-estate they occupy.

by BuyLowSellHigh | 14th Jun 19, 11:48am 1560469681

Seems you're equally clueless about screen real estate as you are about actual real estate.

by Pragmatist | 14th Jun 19, 12:03pm 1560470588

Self-nomination accepted :)

by Mrs The Point | 14th Jun 19, 12:06pm 1560470802

I'd be interested in that plugin. Would be good to get rid of the repetition from the usual suspects.

by Pragmatist | 14th Jun 19, 12:37pm 1560472633

Don't hold your breath, between an upcoming holiday, a couple of new projects at work, and a social life I won't have a lot of time to sink into it. And PC software is not my usual area of operations, so a bit of a learning curve. Might arrive with a xmas bow attached.

by BuyLowSellHigh | 14th Jun 19, 11:41am 1560469263

Yvil, this comment section is infested with envious and conspiratorial DGMs, and upvotes are just a measure of how well a comment conforms with their narrative. I wish there were downvotes, I'd take may average of -25 as a badge of honour.

by Mrs The Point | 14th Jun 19, 12:09pm 1560470944

You'd go down faster than the Sydney housing market.

by Yvil | 14th Jun 19, 2:00pm 1560477644

Indeed, you can generally spot the poorest (very polite adjective) comment simply by the high number of thumbs up.

by BuyLowSellHigh | 14th Jun 19, 2:17pm 1560478656

The only thing that gets more upvotes than comments explaining why the housing market is about to crash is comments moaning about immigrants.

by Yvil | 14th Jun 19, 4:48pm 1560487728

Correct (and very sad), the most negative, whinging comments get the most thumbs up...

by tothepoint - d… | 14th Jun 19, 2:33pm 1560479591

Nymad and his DGM cronies seem more disaffected than usual today.......

TTP

by BuyLowSellHigh | 14th Jun 19, 2:39pm 1560479980

His word salad comes out when he gets frustrated

by Yvil | 14th Jun 19, 4:51pm 1560487910

But surely he must be very intelligent to writes sentences like:
"by implication variance in median is also up? And when controlling for heterogeneous effects"

by BuyLowSellHigh | 14th Jun 19, 5:19pm 1560489570

Classic nymad word salad. Hilarious.

He doesn't realise that sentences like this don't make one look intelligent. They make one look like they are trying to look intelligent.

by cmat | 14th Jun 19, 9:40am 1560462000

Greg, how is a HPI fall of 3.3% in Auckland considered "flat"?

There is a clear trend emerging in Auckland's HPI graph (page 7 of the HPI report if you need help) and it isn't flat.

by Miguel | 14th Jun 19, 9:37am 1560461869

I understand why REINZ will avoid using the HPI in press releases if the Median is more flattering - they have a vested interest in showing prices rising. I don't understand why independent news organisations, that are supposed to a bit more data savvy, keep referencing the median figures instead of the more accurate HPI.

by nymad | 14th Jun 19, 9:48am 1560462489

I think it is an endemic issue.
Even when I have been talking to REAs over the past few years in both a personal and professional capacity, it is evident they don't even know the difference between the two measures. I have a colleague who does training external financial training for REAs and his favorite question to ask a group is what the differences between Mean, Median, and constant quality indicies are. He says it is not often anyone knows what the REINZ/QV SPAR HPIs are and obviously even much less often that someone actually knows how they are estimated.

by cmat | 14th Jun 19, 9:53am 1560462801

Despite the fact Bindi Norwell, REINZ CEO describes "the REINZ HPI as 'the gold standard' in New Zealand house price analysis tools" every month on page 3 of the REINZ HPI report.

... but then never mentions it in her monthly commentary.

by Miguel | 14th Jun 19, 10:17am 1560464231

Its just a way REINZ use their commentary to try and dictate the narrative. They know most media outlets will happily copy/paste their summary of the data, so they will happily cherry-pick data to suit their interests. So despite the HPI being a far better measure (which you can see, just looking at the graphs, as its much less volatile) they will largely ignore it from their commentary unless it paints the picture that suits their narrative.

I fully expect lazy copy/paste from The Herald and Stuff, but I had assumed Interest.co.nz would be a little more subjective and analyse and interpret the data as accurately as possible..... but I guess not.

by cmat | 14th Jun 19, 10:23am 1560464592

I fully appreciate that they are intellectually dishonest.

I just like to highlight it.
Every month.

by cmat | 14th Jun 19, 11:24am 1560468275

This is actually a good report for nzherald (I'm shocked!)

They don't just repeat the figures and they put REINZ's Gisborne spin right at the bottom with a big caveat based on the actual data.

Well Done!
(Obviously not Anne Gibson writing today)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12…

by Miguel | 14th Jun 19, 11:39am 1560469162

That was a really well written article by someone who actually understands the underlying data sets. Good find.

by Pragmatist | 14th Jun 19, 12:24pm 1560471843

I googled the authors name, if i'm not mistaken she was the reporter I saw in one the RBNZ streamed media events giving and being given a hard time by Adrian Orr. Certainly not one to sit back and let things go by un-challenged if that is her usual MO.

by cmat | 14th Jun 19, 2:44pm 1560480278

Ah yes, I actually thought she got torn apart by Orr in that Q&A session.

by Pragmatist | 14th Jun 19, 5:17pm 1560489465

Yes, no love lost between those two, whatever she's written before must have annoyed Orr.

by Pragmatist | 14th Jun 19, 10:47am 1560466078

Anybody got copies of the commentary from say 2015ish? does the HPI get a mention back then, or is it all medians?

by Yvil | 14th Jun 19, 9:48am 1560462486

Where does Greg state that "a HPI fall of 4.2% in Auckland considered "flat"?"
(edit, I see you have now changed a fall of 4.2% to a fall of 3.3%)

by cmat | 14th Jun 19, 9:49am 1560462541

REINZ had their data wrong - they have corrected it.

by Yvil | 14th Jun 19, 9:56am 1560463004

OK, so "where does Greg state that "a HPI fall of 3,3% in Auckland considered "flat"?"

by cmat | 14th Jun 19, 10:01am 1560463299

Greg states in the article:
"The Auckland housing market appears to be on a weak footing ... although prices are largely **flat**"

I'm challenging his statement.

HPI in Auckland was -3.3%.
HPI is "the gold standard" of price analysis.
-3.3% is not *flat*.

Happy?

by Yvil | 14th Jun 19, 10:07am 1560463623

Thanks for admitting that Greg did not make the statement that "a HPI fall of 3,3% in Auckland is considered "flat"

by cmat | 14th Jun 19, 10:09am 1560463782

I'm not admitting anything semantics warrior.

He said "prices are largely flat".
They are not.
His statement is incorrect.

by Yvil | 14th Jun 19, 10:14am 1560464054

Greg came to his conclusion that prices were flat after stating "In Auckland, the median price rose from $850,000 in April to $860,000 in May", sound reasonable to me

by Miguel | 14th Jun 19, 10:23am 1560464611

It would be reasonable if that was the best/only data available.... But comparing the median for two isolated data-points is a horrible measure, due to inaccuracies of the median measure, and the small sample set of data. And yet the HPI exists and is a much better measure. It is far less volatile and provides are much more accurate picture of value of property.

So why ignore the most accurate "Gold standard" measure, and instead base your commentary on the change in median over 2 isolated data points? When did that because a "reasonable" way to interpret data?

by cmat | 14th Jun 19, 10:25am 1560464736

We went through this with you when Barfoots released their data last week.

You conceded that HPI is the best measure.
We're all now talking about HPI.
Because it's the best measure.
Remember?

Do keep up.

by nymad | 14th Jun 19, 10:29am 1560464977

Ahh. I remember that thread.
I love it when someone posts such a categorically wrong comment that they have to edit/delete it. Thanks Yvil.

by Yvil | 14th Jun 19, 10:48am 1560466096

Like your post above at 9:53 that said "there are very few days here when an Yvil comment is not correct with facts" and then you edited it to say "there are very few days here when an Yvil comment is not correctED with facts"

LOL

by nymad | 14th Jun 19, 10:56am 1560466585

by nymad | 14th Jun 19, 9:53am

by Yvil | 14th Jun 19, 10:43am

Oh you mean the one that I edited before anyone replied?
Yea. 'Cause that matters.

Very different to your habit of deleting comments after someone specifically replies to them.

by Yvil | 14th Jun 19, 11:31am 1560468666

Off to SPQR now, have a nice afternoon : )

by Laminar | 14th Jun 19, 12:01pm 1560470474

Ill happily go on the record to support -3.3% been 'largely' flat. Technically down and trend is down but in the world of corrections we are still in the 'largely flat' phase.

by Pragmatist | 14th Jun 19, 12:13pm 1560471208

Agreed, if we get a correction rather than just a long drawn out slow decline/stagnation, then the 3.3% drop will be insignificant.

by tothepoint - d… | 14th Jun 19, 2:38pm 1560479881

Hi Yvil,

Save me a seat at SPQR - see you shortly.

TTP

by cmat | 14th Jun 19, 2:42pm 1560480174

Regional 'investors' conference in Ponsonby.

Quelle surprise.

by Fritz | 14th Jun 19, 3:17pm 1560482245

Sounds like your sort of place. It's where all the pretentious phoneys hang.

by Mrs The Point | 14th Jun 19, 3:54pm 1560484451

It is certainly the place to go and find some like-minded fellows. :p

by Yvil | 14th Jun 19, 4:54pm 1560488086

Yes Fritz, I love SPQR, great food, good atmosphere, walking distance from home, you'll find me there at least once a week

by JediNight | 14th Jun 19, 5:22pm 1560489754

I was walking in Ponsonby the other day. There's a car with your name on the plate. Wouldn't happen to be yours would it?

by Mrs The Point | 14th Jun 19, 5:56pm 1560491763

Hahaha, certainly fits the personality.

by Yvil | 14th Jun 19, 10:27pm 1560508044

Thanks MTS

by tothepoint - d… | 14th Jun 19, 6:08pm 1560492511

Hi Fritz,

Indeed, pretentious.

In fact, I park my Hillman Hunter right outside.

TTP

by house hunter | 14th Jun 19, 9:49am 1560462599

So a relatively strong month for Auckland in that the HPI didn't fall further in either absolute terms or as a YoY%. I guess we're just in a winter holding pattern now.

by cmat | 14th Jun 19, 9:55am 1560462946

Nothing about that is "strong".

by house hunter | 14th Jun 19, 10:01am 1560463284

Do you understand what "relatively" means? It's strong relative to the results we've seen in recent months.

by cmat | 14th Jun 19, 10:03am 1560463396

OK, nothing is "relatively strong".

It's down.

by house hunter | 14th Jun 19, 10:11am 1560463885

LOL

by Voiceofreason | 14th Jun 19, 11:26am 1560468383

Certainly not relatively strong for Auckland compared to oh the past 7 years or so, no. We can get carried away with looking at the week to week, or the month to month, but there is a clear down trend in the market. And looking at the recent trend across the Tasman (~8% down from the peak, nationally weighted), the NZ outlook is not looking strong.

by Laminar | 14th Jun 19, 12:03pm 1560470593

Rofl, cmat says something perfectly coherent and yet still gets ripped up.

by RickStrauss | 14th Jun 19, 11:30am 1560468658

Relatively strong compared to Ireland or Spain on a bad day.

by Pragmatist | 14th Jun 19, 9:58am 1560463102

Not quite right, the Auckland HPI is up 0.5% for the month. Not that monthly changes mean a lot, its a bit too noisy.

by house hunter | 14th Jun 19, 10:05am 1560463517

I agree that we can't really draw much of a conclusion from just a single month, particularly at these low volumes. There's a decent chance this is just a small blip on the way down.

by tothepoint - d… | 14th Jun 19, 6:09pm 1560492599

...... or it could be a small blip on the way up......

TTP

by Jaf | 16th Jun 19, 12:10pm 1560643849

Look at the "My Sales" in the profile of RE agents.Increasing numbers of "Price Withheld" or withheld in a selective way. If the actual sales prices achieved were good,why be coy about publishing it???This is more indicative of the direction of the market rather then the figures trotted out by self-serving interests.

by Pragmatist | 14th Jun 19, 9:51am 1560462669

Joe Wilkes, see above, if Auctions resulted in 18% of all Auckland SALES, and clearance rates are in the high 20 to mid 30% range, there is no way 14% of LISTINGS are Auctions. 18% / 30% clearance rate = 60% Auctions must be around 50% of all listings.

by cmat | 14th Jun 19, 10:18am 1560464298

Yeah, I found that piece of analysis strange too.

The majority of listings I see are still trying (mostly unsuccessfully) to sell via auction, at least initially.

by Pragmatist | 14th Jun 19, 10:51am 1560466289

Indeed, and some even try twice. Go to auction and fail to sell.. wait a week for any post auction offers, then dump that agent and try again with somebody new.

by Yvil | 14th Jun 19, 10:17am 1560464248

Hi Greg, this article has a strong Auckland flavour (including the headline), most people do not live in Auckland, could you please provide data about the rest of NZ or just all NZ ? Thanks (maybe this is on its way)

by Greg Ninness | 14th Jun 19, 11:54am 1560470047

Hi Yvil, the median sales and sales volumes charts have now been added to the bottom of the story. These give the current and historical numbers for all regions. Just select the region you want to look at in the seach field above the graph and when it pops up, hover your cursor over the graph line for the actual figure for any particular month. The data to update these was late arriving from REINZ this morning, which is why they were late getting posted. The debate about median price v HPI is an interesting and valid one. We will continue to use median prices for the time being because it is a measure that is widely understood by our readers (although it wasn't that long ago that most didn't know the difference between median and average), and because our median data stretches back a long way, giving a much longer time comparison. As to my comment about Auckland prices being largely flat, if you look at the median price graph for Auckland, this shows that while there are monthly variations, as there always will be, the overall trend is indeed flat, and prices have largely fluctuated on either side of the $850,000 mark since September 2016.

by Miguel | 14th Jun 19, 12:10pm 1560471021

Thanks for the response Greg. Do REINZ not provide historical data sets for HPI? They seem to have very long running data set for this measure they use in their monthly reports.

Over the past few years HPI shows less volatility than Median and removes skew of property type, which is why many readers prefer it. I'd recommend taking a look at this article where they have used a combination of HPI and median to explain the situation to readers. I feel its can offer a much more informative picture of trends.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12…

by cmat | 14th Jun 19, 12:45pm 1560473108

I don't think it's a hard concept to understand, REINZ has HPI time series back to 1992, and dumbing-down should not pass as a reason for continually referencing an inferior measure - particularly when trying to cut through REINZ spin, which alternates between median & HPI as & when it suits them.

Example, from the October 2017 report:
“Looking at the REINZ House Price Index (HPI) for the legacy Auckland City it only decreased 0.8% year-on-year, whereas the median for the same period fell by 17%, highlighting that the drop in median price is not as dramatic as a first glance would suggest. This is because the HPI considers the mix and value of the property sold, not just the sales price,” points out Norwell.

REINZ are happy to quote and espouse HPI when it's positive and median is negative. But go quiet on it otherwise.

by Yvil | 14th Jun 19, 2:06pm 1560477999

Awesome, thanks for your comprehensive reply Greg.

BTW, I was defending your statement that the Auckland market is flat, cmat is the one who is disagreeing

by Foyle | 14th Jun 19, 10:31am 1560465073

Things must be bad: REINZ not putting their regional summary report on website anymore:
https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2019/Reside…

by Pragmatist | 14th Jun 19, 10:57am 1560466664

by CourtJester | 14th Jun 19, 10:50am 1560466257

Go to the press release archives: https://www.reinz.co.nz/public-archive-2019
Then copy the link for "REINZ Monthly Property Report and Regional Commentary - May 2019".
Remove the .pdf from the end of the link (since it ends like .pdf.pdf)

by Yvil | 15th Jun 19, 12:23pm 1560558234

Thanks for the link Courtjester

by Cowpat | 14th Jun 19, 10:33am 1560465191

Since 1992 , some 27 years ago, only the year 2008 has seen fewer Auckland homes sold in the same 6 month period December-May. Mortgage rates have not been lower.

by mikekirk29 | 14th Jun 19, 3:03pm 1560481413

Even in 2008, for 5m period there were FEWER sales of residential properties. 3.8% fewer
Which might make it worst 5m period of sales in 27 years!
peak for sales by way, was 2003-4, when 56,000 sold in 12m. halcyon days....

by mfd | 14th Jun 19, 3:55pm 1560484551

And the population has not been higher. A graph corrected for population size would be interesting.

by Chairman Moa | 14th Jun 19, 10:53am 1560466387

Forget Auckland, CHCH, Palmy North... Go East to Gisborne and you might even get a patch for free or if you don't mind a patchy neighbour

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/113480719/gisborne-leads-national-hous…

by Voiceofreason | 14th Jun 19, 11:25am 1560468318

That's the tail of the boom/bubble wagging in the regions, same as it did in Australia. Chase those high regional capital gains at your investment peril. They'll likely get hit hard in the nationwide downturn.

by Chairman Moa | 14th Jun 19, 11:33am 1560468830

You are absolutely correct!
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-australian-town-where-p…

by unaha-closp | 14th Jun 19, 1:46pm 1560476769

Not going to be hit as hard as Auckland housing would be, the regions have for the most part enjoyed a more productive boom than Auckland. The regions of BOP and Waikato have built more per capita - which suggests their markets are more elastic - than Auckland. In a downturn the less elastic markets will be hit the worst.

by printer8 | 14th Jun 19, 11:47am 1560469621

This property market is one tough bubble - it ain't burst yet.
A little seasonal deflation there, but generally defying the predictions.
It may have a slight phsss... but no pop yet.

by Laminar | 14th Jun 19, 12:10pm 1560471058

very apt sound for the market 'phsss', love it :-)

by JediNight | 14th Jun 19, 5:28pm 1560490089

Flat-ulence

by taimaiakka0 | 14th Jun 19, 1:15pm 1560474957

Median Price just not give the actual picture as know many, who are buying now and spending more than their earlier/original budget as getting more for their deposit/$$$ by extending slightly (Low interest also helps)

How much the damage will be is to watch out for.

by richard1965 | 14th Jun 19, 2:23pm 1560479015

Auckland housing sales for May at nine year low but prices holding up - REINZ

Wrong Headline. Should mention that Median is holding up as prices have and are falling.

So called experts believing that Median Price holding up = House Price not falling is a wrong conclusion.

Median may be (It is) same as house buyers and investors, if any left are getting more value for money in $800s and $900s and Million Plus range than in $600s and $700s (As price in higher ranges have gone down from peak anywhere between 10% to 20% and some may be more so more value to but those properties, if are able to afford. Low interest also supports them to stretch.

Above headline only goes to show that though the data is bad (Sale Volume down by 22%) and cannot hide (so have to say) but can give it a twist by saying that price holding up, which is a complete lie atleast in Auckland (Diding behind and twisting /manipulating data to suit vested interest).

by mikekirk29 | 14th Jun 19, 3:00pm 1560481253

Please bear in mind that REINZ is not citing TOTAL sales but only residential sales.
Total sales in May compared to last May are in fact down 37% and over 6m are down 24%. So the deterioration is accelerating. Sales above $2m were down 53.7% in May and above $1.5m, by 33%. From 600-800k the fall was only 12%. SO, plainly, the AML and OBB Acts have done for overseas flow of liquidity.

by theglc | 14th Jun 19, 9:23pm 1560504231

Yes the pressure is rising while prices are falling..... cant think what might happen from here.....

by mikekirk29 | 14th Jun 19, 3:08pm 1560481716

Amazing how default assumption (not delineated) by all commentators, is that prices being flat or going down is BAD and going up is good. FOR WHOM?

Good for using house as an ATM for owners?
Good for banks to lend more money and people to get more debt.
Good for economy spending on unproductive assets and avoiding dealing with inadequate pensions and rented housing stock?

A market is not a description of a price. Sellers and buyers are a market. Analyse that please

by KH | 15th Jun 19, 7:21pm 1560583284

I agree with your sentiment mikekirk. More do than you realise.

by DitchSkipper | 14th Jun 19, 5:08pm 1560488897

Less sales, prices steady, inventory increasing.
The only fixed values out of those 3 are less sales and inventory increasing. The median sale price can be corrupted by people paying overs for a property, or getting an absolute bargain.
From my experience selling property after a long period of "less sales, prices steady" your house isn't worth as much as you think it is. Chances are what you think your property is worth is probably about 10% higher than the "best case" scenario you'll get from your chosen agent. Prices are holding because people are now getting better value for money, and with inventory increasing, they've got even more choice.
Auction rates are continuing to fall. Sales are continuing to fall. Inventory is increasing.
The long night has begun.

by JediNight | 14th Jun 19, 5:31pm 1560490318

People should watch the inventory. If it continues to increase, and if the credit impluse into mortgages reduces (less borrowing per year), then we're going to have a fire sale.

by Mrs The Point | 14th Jun 19, 9:09pm 1560503368

Changed name again Nic Johnson?

by JediNight | 15th Jun 19, 8:14am 1560543286

No.

by HouseHunter | 14th Jun 19, 8:35pm 1560501303

Since you are all so knowledgeable about property, I thought I'd ask - is there any issue to look out for with fibrous cement cladding?

by KH | 15th Jun 19, 7:25pm 1560583534

Ask about Asbestos in the older stuff. Nightmare if you need to work with it for safety and expensive safety requirements.

by Yvil | 15th Jun 19, 12:07pm 1560557264

The chart above for NZ median price shows an amazingly steady uptrend : )

by Yvil | 16th Jun 19, 12:44pm 1560645885

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/property/113453987/house-prices-nationwi…

Surprising article (btw I do not share their opinion)

by stuart786786 | 16th Jun 19, 8:49pm 1560674973

Vested Interest / Paid News

Joke