National house sales volumes sank to a five year low in August but prices were flat overall, the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand says

National house sales volumes sank to a five year low in August but prices were flat overall, the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand says

The number of house sales last month slumped to their lowest level for August in five years, according to the latest figures from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ).

REINZ said 5959 residential properties were sold nationwide in August, the lowest number for that month since August 2014.

The market was even quieter in Auckland where 1761 residential properties were sold in August, the lowest number for the month of August since 2010 (see the interactive chart below for the full regional sales volumes trends).

REINZ chief executive Bindi Norwell said wet weather was a contributing fcator to low sales in August.

"August saw sales volumes fall by 6.1% from the same time last year, the lowest level of sales for seven months," she said.

"This was a bit of a surprise given the strength of July's figures, howewver an extremely wet August across most parts of the country and the past three months having the lowest number of new listings of any consecutive three months since records began in 2007 look to have been contributing factors," she said.

However while sales volumes were low, median prices remained within recent price bands.

The national median selling price was $580,000 in August, which means the median price has remained between $575,000 and $585,000 since March. That suggests overall prices are flat nationally.

In Auckland the median price was $820,000 which was slightly less than it was in March 2016 ($835,000). Although there have been monthly movements in Auckland's median price, they have broadly remained within a fairly narrow band since March 2016, suggesting prices in the region have been flat for more than three years (see the chart below for all regional median price trends).

However the REINZ's House Price Index (HPI) for Auckland, which adjusts for differences in the type of properties being sold, was down 1.5% compared to August last year.

Nationally the HPI was up 2.9% compared to a year ago, and for the rest of the country excluding Auckland it was up 6.8% on August last year.

It is also taking longer for homes to sell, with the median number of days required to achieve a sale rising to 39 in August compared to 37 days in August last year.

The median number of days to sell a property has been steadiliy rising for the last three years (see chart below).

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Volumes sold - REINZ

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Median price - REINZ

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Median house price growth

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Days to sell - REINZ

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123 Comments

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Highlight new comments in the last hr(s).

The perverse effects of a lower OCR
Expert Bindi Norwell recounting the previous month.
Bindi Norwell, Chief Executive at REINZ says: “This is the
first time in eight months that we’ve seen the number
of properties sold around the country increase on an
annual basis suggesting that we’re starting to see some
early signs of growth.
H I G H E S T N U M B E R O F
P R O P E R T I E S S O L D AC R O S S
N Z I N M O N T H O F J U LY FO R
3 YEARS
“Some of this can be attributed to more certainty post
the removal of the Capital Gains Tax, but it’s also about
pockets of renewed confidence and parts of the market
finding its new normal in terms of pricing.
“With August’s surprise 50 basis points drop in the
OCR, going forward we expect to see even more signs
of growth – especially as we move towards the warmer
weather when we tend to see more activity in the
market,” she continues.

Bindi is little more than a cheerleader with zero credibility

Auckland sales volumes low - but prices steady/stable......

What’s new? Yawn.

Have a nice weekend, fellow collaborators!

TTP

Reality Check:

Auckland Median Down 1% YoY..
Auckland HPI Down 1.5% YoY
Auckland Days to sell Up 4.8% YoY

All signs of a slow slide downhill..

By March 2020 values will be at a new all time high. Call me out then

be specific, and I will :)

Noted and diarised.

Auckland Region HPI to be at all time highs when reported in March 2020 (so ~mid-march)

best way for a bubble to deflate... slowly.

"Buoyant compared with 2017/18" (Tuesday's description) now being replaced with "sales volumes low and prices steady".

I am concern for the 45 year record consents in the pipeline in this already slightly declining and very slow market. Who’s going to buy them at the prices they’ll need to get to make money? Foreign buyer ban lift at some point?
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/115423351/building-consent-levels-at-45ye...

Foreign buyer ban will be lifted in some way soon.

Watch this space.

23
up

I thought the foreign buyer ban doesn't matter.

Why ?

12
up

Only if Labour were desperate to get back to the opposition benches. I suppose that might take the pressure off them to have to actually achieve something useful - so maybe you're right...

15
up

Labour are best suited to opposition. It's where you can say whatever you like and never be held accountable for it.

They're probably praying for another nine long years of National right now so they don't actually have to deliver us all the ponies they promised.

Pony tails or ponies?

13
up

Well...given National campaigned on the housing crisis then denied any housing crisis existed for the next nine years...where was the holding accountable?

We need to push Labour to act on more of their promises, but National were useless at keeping theirs.

16
up

Can't see Labour ditching possibly their most popular policy. And why would they ? Its slowly working its magic.

27
up

Most Kiwis living, working and paying tax here would absolutely not vote to let foreign ownership start up again, just like most would not vote to increase the population by 100,000s with foreign immigrants on a year by year basis. Any Govt bringing this back in is simply selling out New Zealand's sovereignty and birthright.

You don't get to choose those kinds of things. Marijuana yes. Euthanasia yes. But how the financial sector rapes you. No.

Troll needs to go.

Or get paid a stipend for providing the daily comic relief..

....as the village idiot?

"Foreign buyer ban will be lifted in some way soon" I'd have guessed at only 3% of total FB, it wouldn't have much impact?

11
up

If Labour even mentioned lifting the foreign buy buyer ban, they would be laughed out of office.

Politically, I can't see any benefit for labour to lift this FB. Unless their donation form outside NZ is drying up.

10
up

@ xingmowang: Aren't you forgetting that your fellow country men are having huge problems getting their money out of China and will be for the foreseeable future, likely to be years down the track. And the whole point for the NZ Foreign Buyers Ban is get to people to fully invest in NZ as a resident, to live and work in our country rather than use it as an Swiss bank account, that just massively drives up the cost of living for everyone.

There are still tonnes of ways to get money out of china - transfer pricing for one (sell something at a loss to a foreign entity you are partnered with). Often individuals will simply pool their money transfer allowance to give to one individual. Many other schemes.

Yes I have heard of some of the more ingenious schemes such as using cryptocurrencies, smurfing etc,. Though as soon as the Chinese Government becomes aware of them the crack down can be very heavy handed. Here's a recent one on forex trading viewed as an “extremely severe” violation, defined as cumulative transactions of more than 500,000 yuan, would be subject to a jail term of more than five years and a fine of up to five times of the profits, or confiscation of property. https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2186008/china-crackin...

14
up

Is that what your CCP Overlords were ordering Simon Bridges to do earlier last week?

This is not particularly dramatic news: "the lowest number for the month of August since 2010".

And the highest number of consents for new builds in 45 years. Not a great recipe.

15
up

Given we have the lowest Auckland sales in a decade and new building is at record levels it's a safe conclusion that there is a sh_t ton of new stock which isn't selling at current prices.

I wonder if it excludes new stock sold off the plans or in advance of completion

I see new builds of 3 bedroom houses in Pokeno now being advertised in the $500ks instead of the $600k+ range. Interesting times.

It's quite a common theme, new build prices being cut

There are sections for sale in Pokeno for less than $250k.

https://imgur.com/a/f9sAmZw

Here is what happens when you change the Auckland graph to start at the peak, in April 2017. Looking very good, as you can see.

Will be interesting to see next months median.. for the previous two year August was the low point, then it picked up until the Xmas/January holiday slump. If next months moves down instead of climbing its not a good sign (for sellers)

Very good. Shows median down 8.8% off peak.
Sales, by way, are exactly same in 2019 as they were in 2017, for first 7m up to end of July.

Looks like a slightly downward trend line.

Nice graph.
8.8% from peak to trough, thus far.
Would seem my prediction of a 5-10% fall from peak to trough looks pretty good.
Don't think things will fall away much from here. Until the crash comes at least... (2021-2022)

A lot of that move is seasonal, maybe about half. Cirrca 3-5% correction so far.

global economy is super dicey at the moment inverted yield curves, falling growth, trade wars, EU disruption... Think you are optimistic to hope it won't crash for 2 more years.

ASB is forecasting that Statistics NZ is most likely to report the economy grew by between 0.3 and 0.4 per cent when it releases GDP growth figures on Tuesday, while warning "risks are skewed to the downside". The ship of NZ is taking on water. Labour came in predicting 4-5% growth (no fiscal hole!) but have instead driven a steady slump to ~2% and trending further down.

Feel better now that you've got your friday afternoon labour bashing out of your system?

The week is a total loss without some political sparring.

HPI is a better measure.
Unfortunately interest.co.nz don't keep the graph up to date.

I can't stand references to the median.

RE Agencies advancing commissions to stop agents starving and covering wages and rents must be hurting. Based on their super profits over the last ten years not many will shed a tear.

With lower interest rates, high immigration, no CGT, lower 5% deposit required for KB, house prices will start climbing again. March 2020 will reach a new all time high in house values

The KB houses are price capped I thought?

The other factors might turn it around, but hard to be confident since they all existed for a while and nothing's happened thus far.

But banks are still stress testing mortgages at 7%....the OCR bears no relevance to serviceability and the $$$ are still huge for most incomes. I think it'll be flat for a while yet but frankly who knows...

I've heard the serviceability testing is down a bit now, still in the 6-7% range though.
I agree, its sliding slowly in Auckland, maybe the various changes bring it to flat, but I see no reason why its going to start climbing anytime soon.

Blah blah blah.. ignoring the fact that housing is super overpriced and with all the points you have mentioned, housing is stuck in a rut..

Housing consents is at a 45 year high, did you forget to mention that

A lot of new houses going onto a market that is in stagnation / going backwards, will in theory cause further price reductions. In reality most of the consented houses will not be built due to the current market prices.

Well I'm making a prediction, here and now, house prices at all time high in March 2020 let's wait 6 months and quote me on it then.

Let's check back in in March 2020.

Be specific, What metric? HPI, Median, average? And for all of NZ?

How bout an Auckland Prediction.. again, be specific.

Ttp is also predicting a significant lift in house prices next year.

Isn't he always? Lets see if either of them will be specific, or it it just arm-wavey and vague.

Yeah let's see if they have the guts to do it.

We can help him out. In my book, any annual increase would need to be at least 5% to qualify as ' significant'

https://itsalmo.st/house-price-peak-8ynd

I set a calendar reminder. Should be interesting.

funny!

Kezza, the cost of land has declined faster than the fall in house prices. In reality it is now more profitable to bring houses to market than when prices were at their peak.

Something about history and rhyming comes to mind!

Ireland's R/E agents proclaimed something similar in Autumn 2007, that "Spring 2008, (March, April their season) would see house prices reach new all-time highs!"
What happened? (NB: Have a look at many global economic indicators and tell me they don't have an uneasy pre-GFC feel about them!)

"In 2008, property prices fell 12.4% (-13.4% in real terms)
In 2009, property prices fell 18.6% (-14.3% in real terms)
In 2010, house prices fell 10.5% (-11.6% in real terms)
In 2011, house prices fell 16.7% (-18.7% in real terms)"

The reasons for their confidence was both different and similar in various areas to what we have, but that unwavering confidence was identical!

Ireland???

Yes agree with you BW, having been through the GFC too in Europe. We also witnessed house prices stagnate for a few years after 2008 until reality set in and prices gradually slipped to affordable levels. It took five years for them to climb back up again but then there was a resurgence in foreign buying. Though some areas have never recovered their 2008 price levels if wages in those areas couldn't match them.

Doubt it.

Lower interest rates - they are low for a reason ie. a weak economy, which is weakening. But sure they will support prices to some extent.

High Immigration - much of the profile of immigrants is low skilled or students. Hardly going to have much effect on house prices (but might push up rents a little)

No CGT - correct. But we have a 5 year brightline test.

5% deposit for Kiwibuild - don't think it will make much difference.

Its not a 5% deposit for Kiwibuild, its a 5% deposit for all houses under the respective caps, new or existing, so long as you are below the income cap and can get a mortgage via a provider in the First Home Loan scheme. It'll prop up the bottom end of the market, and set a floor. It'll also set the pricing for any new developments being built.

Prices slipping a bit more, then flat because of the support at that level.

You are right. But I don't think it will make more than a minor difference, for a number of reasons.

In auckland it'll possibly arrest the slow slide, but it won't lift prices, because the volume of properties that are under the price cap and not total dogs of places is so small.

Exactly

"March 2020 will reach a new all time high in house values" - Nationwide, or in Auckland?
Bold prediction, but at least it's a prediction with a fixed timeline, unlike some other spruikers' comments.
My prediction is that December 2020, HPI will be 15% down from peak in Auckland.

Where? Not in Auckland

With no wage inflation, no foreign buyers, much more stringent capital controls in China and a flood of unsold new homes I would suggest you'd need something of a miracle to get that prediction to come true.

.

Supply decreased, yet prices stayed flat.

Basic high school economics here,; what happens when the supply goes back up again?

Start of the cash dry up or people are waiting for lower interest rates???

The return on cash is negligible.....But the return of ones cash is paramount. (A small film over ones brain, an American ideology).

Whilst overseas, it is totally apparent that all the Banks filch and try to inflate away their debt. Their sole reason for lower returns on one and alls Capital that they lend out at multiple opportunities.

Once a Capital idea, provoked by a certain American so-called Finance Whizz after the last GFC meltdown. ..such a whiz/bang idea.

Now followed into endless and lend more downwards spiral. It is not lending money that is the Issue. The issue is that people always expect a higher return for least endeavor...in our poor neck of the woulds.

Buy a bleedin House. Cannot go wrong. Inflation is what they aim for, they buy another with equity, most equitably and easily.

I could explain in great detail, but that would take more time and an honest approach.

Something lacking in why Banks are the way they are, these days....Yes..Honestly....no such bleedin luck.

So many Banks, so little return, so multiply it up....dishonestly.

Until they cannot.

The flight of money to this neck of the woulds, is/was a diminishing return, but a little better than overseas. Capital gains are everymans dream munny machine. Trillions are owed my millions. Some is Compounded....some is ring fenced. Some is owned, sum is mostly owed.

Sum is in Fonterrors demise....too.

That New Zealand should be any different, is mind bogglingly bleedin obvious.

Taint. Aussie, China, USA, UK, all the same. Borrow and be damned. 00000111111000000011111111 ...let us all make munny.

Fontera is only one of our major exports taking a hit. Sooner or later the trickel down hit's Joe Blogs in the pocket.

Interesting result. In Auckland, the median was down but the HPI was up. Yes I know the HPI is down YoY, but less so than it was.

What this likely indicates is relative strength at the low end of the market. A greater % of low end sales dragged the median down. But those low end sales prices were somewhat high relative to CV, hence the HPI got a boost.

"REINZ chief executive Bindi Norwell said wet weather was a contributing fcator to low sales in August"

Im not buying it! August is historically the wettest month in Auckland

https://en.climate-data.org/oceania/new-zealand/auckland/auckland-3605/#...

August had the most rainy days of any month on record for Auckland.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12263657

No idea if it was a major factor for low sales though.

Hi thegic,

The message is that it was a particularly wet August in Auckland.

Those who don't get the message are wetter than wet.

TTP

Think about it!

August is always the wettest month in Auckland so

Would it have stopped people listing - No, more than any other year
Would it stop people looking for a house - No, most people would view on line when seriously looking
Would it stop people going to open homes - Possibly but I doubt it, If someone is serious about looking at a house would they defer from doing that because its raining or might rain later in the day....
Would it make the properties less attractive to buy - possibly but only marginally more than any other August, perhaps the outside and the amount of light that comes into the house...
Would it stop people going to the auction for the house they want to buy - No

The after the fact amount of rainfall being higher than average cant logically be used as a viable excuse

Agreed to look for a house in wet weather is an advantage to savvy Buyers, it's a way to effectively spot a properties water tightness and whether it has mold issues.

Excuses , excuses .....

It's winter , it rains.....

I don't really buy the weather excuse. If demand is strong enough, and people are motivated enough, the weather should matter very little

You could argue it is the best time to buy - you see the house at it's worst.

Good point

Good point

yes late winter is best time to buy, consistently lowest prices, only sellers in the market are motivated - people who don't have luxury of waiting for summer. By similar token should always sell in summer when prices are consistently highest.

Sales in NZ as a whole fell. "Unexpectedly" Really: price goes up on something then usually purchasing of it will fall. Median price in NZ excluding Auckland is till rising and surprise to see sales falling.
Auckland is a different market because of investor buying being a third of it and also because its median is $300k higher than national figure (if excl Auckland from calculation)

If one studies the trend series of 12m, 6m and 3m up to end of July then 3m trend is better. But only in respect to comparison to 2018. Compared to 2017 the sales are pretty much the same. And 2017 is more relevant because that year was when Chinese money got cut off in first 6m, as China stood on hosepipe (as they just announced by the way they are doing on corporate overseas RE purchases!) and this year Labour stood on it from this end. Median now $820. Peak was $900k. Yes this is not a real 8.8% drop of similar properties as what is selling is cheaper when it goes on market. But stuff over $1.3m is not going OTM because potential vendor does not want to take a "loss" if bought in last 3 years. So, listings down substantially. Building in Auckland is leading to excess stock as real demand is falling due to buyer psychology now having a deflationary bias. Spring "bounce" will occur but I v much doubt that sales will be same as in 2018 Spring. More like 2017. Key question is whether interest rate cuts will lead to more buying by FHB and also will the world economic growth slow down counter this desired effect

Hey mikekirk29, So if you're seeing inventory in the over $1.3m property price isn't being listed that much due to them not wanting to make a loss if bought in recent years. Do you see the upper Auckland price bracket gradually eroding downwards? As you mentioned that interest rate cuts have helped FTB's to borrow more but if their on Auckland wages which are on average lower than Wellington (Due to high immigration in Auckland), I can't see how they could even begin to afford homes in the over a million price brackets? Even if mortgage rates dropped to 1% they would still be priced out. Do you see the money coming from other sources, Trust Companies etc..? Without direct foreign buyers pushing the market I can't see how top end prices are going to last let along increase.

Hi Mike, what is the reference to China restricting corporate overseas RE purchases?

Did this just happen? Do you have a link?

Thanks.

Sorry cmat it was on another website and can’t remember. I will look for it. Important because corporate buyers not affected by overseas buyer ban so this China policy means another smack for sales in Auckland esp. (found it, see below)

Corporations are affected by the ban, as long as at least a quarter of the shareholders or directors are foreign. So this probably won't make much difference aside from being one more point of enforcement.

There are a few restriction on NZ end regarding Overseas Corporate Buyers aka Trust Companies and our FBB but this is mild in comparison the pressure that China is enforcing on capitol controls on Chinese property investors. Here's a quote from CNBC article: "Chinese investors acquired a total of $15.7 billion worth of overseas real estate in 2018, down 63 percent from 2017, according to data from Real Capital Analytics cited by Cushman & Wakefield". Article link for more info: Beijing’s capital controls are weighing on Chinese investors looking to buy property abroad. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/27/capital-controls-weigh-on-chinese-overse...

I'd be interested to see that too

This poor weather excuse is utterly lame.
In UK the retailers lament it when sun is ut in summer because THAT means lower sales (gone to beach...)
if it rains, they say people won't go out.
As Clinton said: it's the economy stupid.

Just a little curveball for you: who is insuring the CDS and CDOs of the banks who, as we know from painful experience in 2007-10, divide a % of their mortgage book and dice it for sale as MSB and then use Collatoralised Debt Obligions and CDS as insurance. ANZ has about 25% of its book in this deal. When prices cease rising, Ponzi is in trouble on this deal. People are looking at wrong metric - falling interest rates indicate the game is almost over and people are not biting. No increase in rate of increase of debt means recession. Rate of increase 6.5% and falling since 2016. Whiff of desperation of central banks beginning to stink

2019 Finalist - most unintelligible comment category

Being pleased that you do not know what a CDO is - what a badge of honour. Along with all greater fools

That's the clincher. Rate of increase. Rate of increase goes down. Prices go down.

Good .............. so hopefully this falling demand is real and is reflected in prices falling .........and not "the weather " or some other made-up nonsense.

I cant see it however , simply because we have such a backlog , and inward migration remains too high .

Its needs mentioning that prices topped out some time ago ............ the market was simply unaffordable .

There seems to be very little pressure in either direction on this market. Sellers appear to be in no rush to sell, however those that are, find themselves in a buyers market. Which is probably the cause of the slight downwards trend.

And what were reported to be Ned Kelly's last words before they hanged him? "Such is Life".
Perhaps an omen in your nom-de-plume there, CLV, if the property market is about to be hanged!?

"Australian property sales crash to fresh 23-year lows"
I was in Aussie last week, Melbourne and Brisbane, and that headline comes as no surprise.....

Part of the issue has been the fire hose of printed cash, some from our banks and some from other sources. What are people seeing in the lending practices of the banking community, are they tightening up or continuing to hose away?

To CMAT : you asked for source on China restrictions on corporates buying Real estate abroad.
It is in Wolf report below, from 30.8.19. It is a power at moment. Can be applied when the authorities want to.
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/08/30/china-imposes-new-capital-controls-tar...

Am currently looking to buy in the Hutt, Wellington. Open homes look like they did at the peak during the Auckland boom. People running around breathlessly, almost panicking in their rush to buy. Realestate agents are as arrogant and rude as they were in Auckland back then. Appears there are different markets across NZ.

Yes that's due to the salaries being higher in Wellington then they are in Auckland. Plus a lot of Auckland IT business had to relocate to Wellington since they were pushed out by the very high cost of living in Auckland generated by you guessed it massively over inflated property and rental prices.

Would be interesting to see what might happen if there was a big cut back in bureaucrat numbers in Wellington, as there should be.
It's quite mind blowing how bloated most of the departments are with 'Policy Analysts'.
I think numbers could / should be cut back 30-40%

I'm in Welly. My neighbours house is up for sale. They ran a campaign of twice weekly open homes, which were rammed full of people.
The auction was due to be today, but they cancelled it because transpired that there were only two potential buyers due to attend the auction. They had placed an offer on another house and have 12 days to sell or that falls through.

That kind of thing was NOT happening in the Auckland boom! Wellington city has cooled rapidly. I managed to buy at tender 5 months ago with zero competition. The Hutt heat will evaporate shortly.

Didn't you buy with cash on a 1mil+ place? I can see why you didn't have competition. As a would-be first home buyer wanting to move back to Wellington one day its hard not to have completely lost hope over the last few years given the skyrocketing prices and desperation that's apparently out there. Anyone wanting to buy anywhere close to the median and taking on mortgage looks to be completely screwed

Yeah cash, but not a million dollar house, we bought a seriously banged up, uninsurable old villa (uninsurable as full of scrim). But even a year before that, there would have been competition, especially from investors. We had been looking for a house for 3 years so very good idea of the heat in the market. It was super hot in 2018 but 2019 is definitely cooling. People are still asking sky high prices of course, but the availability of buyers to compete and pay those prices is in decline.

There is no way this time last year, my neighbours house would have struggled to sell like this. It's very desirable. A house just a few doors down (almsot identical but not in quite so good nick) sold in 2 weeks last year. Hence my neighbours expectation that they could sell for a high price at auction. However, 2019 is not 2018 so they've had to adjust expectation.

So, I guess what i'm saying is, don't lose hope. The market is cooling, keep saving and look for the right house. We couldn't afford the house we wanted. We are having to reno the house we want. I've been plastering all week and will be plastering all weekend. But that is how we managed to accrue the cash we had. Our last house, we had toddlers on bare concrete floors and knocking down walls around them. Not ideal, but was the only way we could afford to buy and build equity. We haven't had a proper holiday in years, I do as much as I can myself etc. It sucks that houses are this unaffordable but I really think the tide us turning.

If I was in your neighbours position (stalled auction but having a house waiting under contract) I think I would probably take the money and run. Would have to be close to 95 percent of what I hoped for though. Good on you doing the plastering yourself, it's not an easy job.

Hi Gingerninja,
I was in Auckland and missed out due the frenzied buying. Even during the halceon days, some houses failed to sell as greedy sellers were just too greedy.
The same panic buying is taking place here in Wellington in the Hutt.
Yes, I agree the heat will evaporate eventually, but only when median prices in are up and over 50% higher...
As for collapsing prices, I have been watching since 2009 and since then, some areas across the country have gone up 200%...
I like most Kiwis, just don't have a million dollars cash to chuck at a home...
I hope your renovations are going smoothly and you managed to get your driveway concreted. Cheers, GEN HH

Welcome to the real world!
We are in the early stages of a long slow decline, unless we experience a trigger event to make it fast decline. I see a high percentage of listed properties being withdrawn hoping to re-list when prices improve ...... it wont happen. If you want to sell then now is your best opportunity (actual 3 years ago was your best chance but that has past). We are returning to the long term average and my only hope is that we don't overshoot by too much.

Auckland land prices seem to be falling faster than house prices.

Prices will continue to move sideways for many years to come. The largest falls will be in the $1.5m+ range. Talk is that many REA practices are losing money. And there is speculation that Chinese nationals who laundered money here may be in the sights of the Chinese government with house repossessions. I am concerned that price falls in some areas of Auckland, such as hobsonville may push many builders to the wall. That is unless volumes pick up. Spring will be a tell all.

"Chinese nationals who laundered money here may be in the sights of the Chinese government with house repossession" Yes that's already been happening in both Canada and Australia. Here's some info: ABC News: Project Dragon and China's attempts to reclaim money from inside Australia
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-18/chinas-attempts-to-reclaim-money-...
Huffington Post: Canadian Real Estate Worth Billions Seized By Chinese Government https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/02/26/real-estate-canada-anbang_a_233...

"In Auckland the median price was $820,000 which is exactly the same as it was in April 2016." The ponzy scheme promoters are resorting to downright lies in desperation. The Auckland median price in April 2016 was $830,000 just look at the chart.