ASB's chief economist says lower mortgage rates have pushed up housing confidence but warns it doesn't herald a return to boom times

ASB's chief economist says lower mortgage rates have pushed up housing confidence but warns it doesn't herald a return to boom times

People are more confident about the housing market with increasing numbers thinking it's a good time to buy, according to ASB's Housing Confidence Survey for the September quarter..

Of the survey's 2864 respondents, 27% said it was a good time to buy compared to 22% in the second quarter of this year, 13% said it was a bad time (down from 14%), 49% said it was neither good nor bad (barely changed from 50%), and 10% didn't know.

That was a seven year high in terms of the percentage of people who thought it was a good time to buy.

Record low mortgage interest rates appear to be a major factor in those confidence levels, with 43% of respondents expecting lower interest rates over the coming year compared with 31% in the second quarter, while just 12% expect interest rates to rise, down from 14% while 28% expect them to remain the same.

However ASB's chief economist Nick Tuffley said the lift in housing confidence did not mean a return to boom times.

"Housing turnover is finally showing some signs of life after a long period of stagnation," Tuffley said.

"The survey is bang on the long-run average, highlighting a point we've been making in our housing commentaries.

"While housing indicators have rebounded strongly over the past three months, this should only really be characterised as a return to normality.

"We're still a long way from boom territory," he said.

Wage growth and low mortgage rates were probably having the biggest influence on the market.

"Perceptions of whether it's a good time to buy are generally inversely related to rates of house price inflation," Tuffley said.

"That fact that we're seeing the two rise in tandem at present suggests other factors out there are boosting housing affordability.

"We suspect accelerating wage growth and steep falls in mortgage rates are playing a big role in this regard.

"Buyers do appear to be walking the talk.

"Over the past three months auction clearance rates have lifted, housing activity has picked up and houses are starting to sell faster.

Nationwide median days to sell a house has come down from 41 in June to 37, which is around the long-run average," he said.

"Even though mortgage rates are clearly the lowest they've ever been, there are some good reasons not to expect a return of the price surges we used to see whenever interest rates dropped," Tuffley said.

"First, housing policies targeting investor demand are acting as handbrakes on those parts of the market that previously featured a large investor component, like Auckland and Queenstown.

"We expect these regions to underperform the national average.

"Second, broader economic activity and population growth have slowed a little and population growth is expected to slow further in coming years.

"Finally, there are signs housing supply is ramping up in some areas.

"From late 2020, we expect the housing upswing to top out as this additional supply gradually reduces the national housing shortage," he said.

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Housing confidence

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13
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Market is strong but most of the houses that are available for sell (Have observed Howick, Bucklands beach, panmure and near by area) are those houses that the vendor has bought in 2016 or after and now are off loading to come out of it without loss ( if lucky little profit) wheras if would have tried to sell earlier would have definitely lose heavy (So market is up compare to early in the year) but Question is, why are they selling now if the market is going up and not holding for some more time after waiting for long unless are not confident of U turn that the market has taken in last two months and are worried that this upturn may fizzle out soon.

May be still hope for FHB, if this fear of loosing out in investor / speculator proves to be true (Sell now before the market changes) and FHB overcome FOMO as streching to pay more premium for a house that was already high is not worth it.

FHB should not strech beyond as bigger the bubble gets bigger the problem as ecenomy cycle has to play for long term future - can be delayed but not avoided and IF this time market changes the fall will be meaningfull.

Ecenomy fundamentals have not changed except interest rate so is this change in housing market solely because of low interest rate but interest rates were lowere earlier also. Can 0.2% or 0.4% fall in already low interest rate can be the turning factor though have doubts (Law of diminishing return at play).

Have raised this point earlier also that FHB buyers on Kiwi wages have limitation and this sudden jump specially in 900s or million dollar house is not FHB, so question is will this sudden upturn sustainable ...? Will have to wait and watch if the market opens higher in January and continues or not as will be the deciding factor.

Reverse Bank is adding extra cost onto mortgages via reduced banks' leverage . .. regardless of the ecenomy ... orr if the OCR is cut to the floorboards ... extra costs should cap another " boom " ...

Yes it will be interesting to just how quickly NZ's mortgage rates will drop to keep the property ponzi scheme going. In comparison, I see that Australia is now offering 2.69% for a 3 year fixed rate for residential mortgages, though at least their now offering Investment Property mortgages aimed at Landlords at a higher rates. That gives FTB's and home owners who want to trade up a bit more breathing space, wouldn't be surprised to the banks here to start to do the same trend.

Yes, I remember your prediction of 2.99% by end of 2019, unlikely to happen IMO

Not that far off with the current lowest advertised mortgage rates with some providers at 3.15% fixed for either 1 or 2 year options. Wouldn't take much for them to push lower, Plus it all depends on the power of you negotiation skills, never accept the advertised rate. Always negotiate for a more competitive mortgage rate. :)

The best thing from a FHB point of view is a stable market to slight increase in capital value. The buyer can have confidence in their purchase and just focus on what it really is .... a home that benefits them greatly in many ways. This is my opinion.

12
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Quite right - "a home that benefits them greatly in many ways'
And my opinion is that if that same home cost half what it does today ( the same as back about 10 years ago when wages weren't that much different to what they are today) then imagine what the capital (debt) that today gets tied up in a static utility (that same home) could do if it was spent into the wider economy.
Back to the Future looks to be the way to go. Will we have the political, social and economic courage to go there? Doubtful! In which case a far worse fate awaits the country that just overpriced 'homes'.... ( 'My Food Bag' for the poor being the least of our problems!)

Yes I agree there are people getting left behind in the rat race. Maybe what we need is My Food Bag housing division.

"The buyer can have confidence in their purchase and just focus on what it really is" .... a mortage for life

The alternative being... pay rent for life and have nothing to show for it...ever

Yes if you dont own a house at the end of your life you have nothing to show for it...great lesson to teach those pesky FHB.

It's very rude of you to call FHBs pesky. I remember my parents telling me when I was little "you pay the landlord or you pay the bank, either way you pay it's all the same" Sadly one of the worst advice… My dad now passed away and my mum is, 40 years later, still renting and she has absolutely nothing to show for $500'000 she spent on rent… I'm just trying to give good advice to people who are currently renting

Wow, not surprised she didn't buy with a rent of only $240pw. Much more efficient use of capital elsewhere.

She pays way more than $240pw now but as I said in my post she has been paying for 40 years and 40 years ago she paid way less than 240pw so that figure ia a rough average. (she pays monthly anyway)

That's cheaper than buying. I hope that if she had any excess savings that they were invested. That is the real choice of where to put money. Renting also gives more flexibility than buying, and none of the liabilities.

My father in law always said "Rent is dead money".

Rent for 25 years, starting point of $500 per week with 3% p.a. (Source) increases you'll pay $947k in rent.
Take out a $500k mortgage @ 7% p.a. over 25 years they'd have paid $560k in interest and roughly $75k to $100k in rates.

The total principal and interest payments = $1.06 Mill, i'm sure someone will argue the investment opportunity cost of $110k over the cost of renting. Except that renter in year 26 is paying $1000 per week so after being mortgage free for 2 years the home owner is starting to catch up.

Well done for listening to your father-in-law

Living comfortably on a luxurious $500 per week versus paying $816 per week in a mortgage (plus rates). Assuming a similar return for the investment money the renter has the same asset value. While they still have rent to pay they have $1.06m in income generating assets.

Based on your numbers the decision is an even split where either option seems good. Except it excluded maintenance costs over 25 years, insurance, etc. The renter has the flexibility to move to a new house at any time given they are paying market rates.

Fair call on maintenance and insurance (add another $60k - $100k). My example was a bit extreme as First Home Buyers shouldn't be taking out $500k mortgages.....oh wait unless they're in Auckland LOL, and certainly not at 7% interest rate average over 25 years.....unless they're able to have a portion of their debt forgiven each time the interest rates goes up a percent.

10
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Actually, you do have something to show for it!
It's just that is isn't a house(s) that you tied all your time and effort up in paying off.
We are all only here once; Life, isn't a dress rehearsal, and what we choose to do with our time and effort is up to us all as individuals.
To be 'blackmailed' into believing that 'owning your house when you retire' is a must is tragically false 'education'. (Isn't the average age of a FHBer these days something like 32? So instead of Kiwis being 'Life-begins-at-40' odd when they'd 'paid off the home' as it used to be, they are actually knocking on retirements' door!)
To some, many perhaps, that will suit them, but for others?
What could be worse than after 30 years of ploughing every cent our work effort has produced into the roof over our head we say "If only.....( we had travelled; started a business; been able to afford to have children - the list is long)"
And there are a lot of 'if only' choices out there that aren't about taking out a 30-year mortgage or two, just because we have been blindly led into believing that it's "the only way to go!"
(NB: And for those who say" Yes! But when I retire and sell up my portfolio, I'll be able to do all those things anyway". You might. But chances are, you won't be able to. Just try hiking up Machu Picchu when your 65; or ski down the black run in Zermatt, or even walk the Milford Track. Children? Forget it! It won't be as easy as you think, even if it is 'still what you want to do")

People who bought in last 5 years outside of Auckland are beaming from ear to ear now. Tell them they were " 'blackmailed' into believing that 'owning your house when you retire' is a must is tragically false 'education'" and they will laugh at you. Enjoy your day

I shall, being one of those who did just that! But I also know that 'tomorrow' that $500k that my net worth has gone up in the last couple of years, according to the latest Council Rates statement I just got, just because I bought a home 'in the right place', could evapourate the day after tomorrow. (It's all an illusion and confidence trick, this 'wealth base on property game' IF you don't cash-up. Many have; more will, but someone(s) is going to get caught holding the debt soaked bag. The trick is to make sure it isn't YOU!)

When houses virtually tripled overnight in Auckland around 1973 they went from $7000 to $21000. I know because I looked up all the sale prices on the first home we bought. You would have said or thought the same thing as what you just said. But that did not stop you continuing to buy property after that did it bw.

Kind of.
I've been a homeowner; landlord and tenant, all over the years.
Circumstances dictated a couple of those moves (the most expensive thing you can do in life is not to "not buy the property" but to choose the wrong partner-in-life - a couple of times, in my case!). Mostly, I looked at what was going on around me and decided to sell-up (out of the market completely and rented for 2 years; 2 years and 5 years respectively); buy-up or just keep a home. At the moment - I have one home. That's it.
So I haven't blindly gone down the "buy property or else doom will overwhelm you" path. I've tried to keep my financial eyes open. That's what I suggest we all do. And as things stand, buy-and-hold, whether it's property or pretty much anything else, makes no sense to me.
But we all have to live somewhere, and I own where I do, because I like where I live! It's as complicated as that.

Beaming over paper profits? I only would be beaming when the mortgage is paid off and I truley own the house.

It's the wealth effect. Whether you like it or not, that is what happens.

More like the debt effect .. cannot believe the crowing that goes on about this pyramid scheme.

frazz, your anger is really not helping you, it blinds you from what is best for you. When you have some quiet time, take a deep breath, forget about me and all other commenters and seriously think what is best for you (and your family if you have one), then act.

Its not just me angry Yvil ..but keep believing in your never ending story of debt - and when it all blows I will be quitely sipping a cold beer on my yacht in the South Pacific. Thas whats best for me and my family thanks - (oh and a few shares invested here and there for income).

Hold that - White Island has just blown ..

11
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No. The best thing from a FHB point of view is a housing market that's NOT one of the most unaffordable on Earth.

True but there's nothing you or I can do about the value of the housing market. Why not focus on what you can do to better your life?

If demand dries up due to young people abandoning the housing market (either due to lack of purchasing power, or a "fuck this, I won't support the Ponzi scheme" attitude), prices will crash. Or political powers will come up with some decent policies to attract the votes of the next generation as the number of boomers declines...

Really…?

In terms of your "F this ….' comment - that's a possibility. We looked at a place in the weekend, below average area, below average quality house, 3 bedrooms but very small.
RV is 850K, asking price 900K.
That's just stupid money.
I'm not going to be mortgaged to my eyeballs for the next 25 years just so that I can own a shitbox.
Ludicrous.

Don't agree with that. The people still have a voice. We live in a democracy. Change is possible, especially when a growing number of people are left behind by the system.
Many people voted for Labour because of their housing policies. Kiwibuild might have failed, but a number of their policies have helped stabilize the market.

What about CGT , which is prevelant throughout the world as is just but vote bank politics greed forced JA to back out.

In NZ in housing market, if the sentiments are positive it will be boom time though not like earier as in the absence of money laundering / foreign buyer, it is hard to turn housing market into casino again, so agree that not boom time time as saw earlier under national (Average person who does not know swiming may not drown in 2 feet, 4 feet or even 5 feet of water but any inches above that or even centimeter and may drown. Same is the case of FHB in Auckland, rise uptill now and can still dream or hope for a house but any further jump at this from here and can even stop thinking).

Nature of housing market is such ( being main indicator of ecenomy and only form of investment available) that it will be either up or down and if it is staggnant it will tend towards low.

Low interest are motivating factor but still a million dollar is a milion dollar, may be not be for elite and rich but for average NewZelanders, it is still a BIG money. Low or No interest rate but still a loan is a loan and mortage has to be served which is beyond many FHB.

Also supply was never the only reason as highlighted by national to cover their vested interest and support their rich Kiwis and foreign friends : https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/aucklands-housing-crisis-investor-driven-n...

To be seen how the market unfolds in begining of 2020 as will lay the direction for the future.

Interesting time ahead in terms of housing market and if it falls from here worst suffer will be FHB who are entering last and paying much more than the value for FOMO.

We have a decision to make ..invest in a new build rental or a growing business expanding using NZ products. The wise gurus on this sight probably would say invest in houses cannot loose. I will probably go business, call me old fashioned but I like the thought of employing people, purcashing NZ supplies from farms, paying a fair amount of tax (to support a amazing country we live in) and sleeping well at night.

House investment is not bad if investing for long term but prices have gone beyond supported by foreign money and also Auckland council for raising the RV by 60% . Though RV is not suppose to be used for valuation but who does not when it comes to selling a house and if RV is high.

Spot on.The biggest culprit in house price spike in Auckland is the city council. Jacking up RV's by almost 50 % or even more.Stroking house owners to feel good that their property has appreciated .In their euphoria they are blissfully forgetful that the council is quietly clawing out from them increased rates.

10
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This is a very, very misinformed, erroneous post.
1) RVs do not set house prices, they follow house prices based on sale prices
2) rates are not rising because the RVs are rising, unless your house value rises more than the average (a common misbelief), rates rise to pay for the rising cost of infrastructure (roads, water, sewer, interenet)

Try to buy house and see how RE Agents throw RV value.

It is a common misbelief- same as that their was no overseas money/money launderers influncing housing market in NZ earlier.

A broker always tells the buyer the high "independent" value and seller the low "independent" value.

1 - Both wrong. The two are endogenous; it's impossible to prove causality in one direction empirically. Structurally you can't make this determination either, due to forward expectations.

2 - Correct. Rates rise based on the relative growth of your assessed value. However, the council does have an incentive (along with CoreLogic) to exaggerate values due to the fact that it makes rate rises more palatable.

endogenous
Learn to pronounce
adjective
having an internal cause or origin.
"the expected rate of infection is endogenous to the system"
BIOLOGY
growing or originating from within an organism.
"endogenous gene sequences"
PSYCHIATRY
(of a disease or symptom) not attributable to any external or environmental factor.
"endogenous depression"

And in empirical terms...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endogeneity_(econometrics)

Look up "endogenous variable". Or go back and redo NCEA Level 3 statistics.

1. Auckland Council 2011-2017 cut land supply to ridiculously low levels to jack up the price of land. This made the RV increase dramatically.

2. 2018-onward Auckland Council removed that restriction on land supply and added even more land supply. Auckland step change expanded land supply in exurbia which means we have to get extra wide expansion of roads, transport and sewage networks to cover a sprawled area. Rates are expa to meet the cost of very expensive networks.

So, yeah Auckland Council is at fault.

1 - Well, it was actually the impending relaxation of land supply in 2017 which jacked up the prices substantially between 2013 and 2016. Plus, they didn't cut land supply - they imposed frictions to developing it with the amalagmation of the 7 councils.
2 - AUP was enacted in November 2016. And just imagine what those costs would be if we removed the RUB!

But. Yes. AC definitely at substantial fault.

I'm curious about whether the FBB is being circumvented. Tried to think of ways around it. No idea if this is a realistic scenario, but the best I could come up with is this: A local person creates a company, and that company buys the property. Then all, or a significant part, of the company is sold to a foreign person.

Presumably that would be frowned upon by the powers that be, but would it actually be illegal? And would it be detected? I guess it could be detected when the property is sold. Of course they could undo the company ownership, but using an updated market value of the property, prior to sale. Presumably that would make the dodginess somewhat harder to detect.

I guess we'll have to wait for the first court case to see how people are trying to get around the FBB...

First court case?
Funny. Naive.

"A local person creates a company, and that company buys the property. Then all, or a significant part, of the company is sold to a foreign person."

That is covered by the Act. It would be illegal. Have a look at section 12(b): http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2005/0082/latest/DLM358017.html

Thanks for that GGP! I guess it was a pretty obvious "trick" :-)
It remains to be seen if anyone is silly enough to try it...

What seemed silly a few years back is now looking less silly. Another positive for housing on the horizon one might think.

"Just imagine that the Australian Government approaches the New Zealand Government with an offer to pay this country $100 billion to take 1 million of its people and resettle them here.
Why? Because Australia has been savagely affected by climate change.
It can't provide enough water and food for its citizens. It is in the grip of extreme droughts, heatwaves and fires caused by climate change. Not to mention rising sea levels affecting coastal cities"

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=122...

LOL okay, are you saying Australia can't support those 1 million people but NZ can?
How much green, humid land area does Aus have with freshwater supply? FYI 33 million people live in Saudi Arabia (2.15 M sqkm) vs 24 million people in Australia (7.69 M sqkm).

LOL to you. Saudi is well on the way to running out of water, as are most of the worlds food bowls.

and what I didn't say is that Australia is following the predictions of the climate science model and is become less and less hospitable. This will only get worse. So expect a few to come door knocking over the next little while. Millions...quite possibly. Can we support them. No.

Running out of water ? Are you serious? Have you been to Dubai (UAE)? There's no freshwater at all, they use desalinisation plants to provide endless amounts of water to a megacity and they have done so for many years

You use of the word endless is just silly. Effectively they convert oil into water. Now see the problem? Not to mention they will need a full replacement for aquifers as they run dry.

​"Estimates are ​that to keep up ​with water ​demand, as much ​as $29bn needs ​to be invested ​in desalination ​over the next ​15 years. The ​desalination ​process ​requires large ​amounts of ​energy. To fuel ​its desalination ​plants, Saudi ​Arabia uses up ​to 1.5 million ​barrels of oil ​per day – ​more than the ​entire daily ​oil consumption ​of the UK". ​

Yvil, you should look a bit deeper. Desalinisation is a very expensive way to extract fresh water, this one of many reasons why UAE and Arab Saudi both need crude oil to be in the region of 100 USD to maintain their country. And what to do with the left over salt? Can't simply dump it back to the sea and kill everything in the process.

That whole region and also other parts of the world are going to be in deep trouble with fresh water. I don't think Saudi is a country to pick as not having a problem, it does its just the fact they have so much money they can buy the solution to any problem they face but what about surrounding countries when they start having big water problems ? lack of water will drive the migration of people and poor countries cannot afford desalination, hell they cannot even afford water pumps and pipes !

Thanks Rastus, CM, I must admit I didn't know desalinisation plants were that expensive to run

Have you ever heard of desalination? Also, Saudi Arabia has an annual rainfall of 110 mm, whereas Australia has 600 mm. Even if that's halved in the next 30 years (very pessimistic), they'll still have 3x as much rainfall as SA.

Sentiment, confidence, intention: NOT action.
People looking to buy do not necessarily buy. However:
Last 3m in Auckland have seen an improvement n the 10m trend, comparing 2018 to 2019.

In the first 10m of 2019, compared to 2018, residential sales were down 6.4% on 2018, same period
In last 3m that has improved but only to a drop of 4.3%

TOTAL sales have improved from -11% to -9%.

Auckland City is doing better than that and thus far in November (provisional figures) it is up 11% on 2018.

Conclusion is that trend is improving but not better than 2018.

The 10m residential sales in 2017 were 24,653 and in 2019 were 24,260 (with about 24,000 more consents)
The 3m comparison is worth less because election stymied sales: 5036 in 2017 and 5525 in 2019 (up 9.7%)

Low rates is driving this. Agree fundamentals outside of that have not changed. The council took its opportunity for a massive rate hike last time around for one very simple reason-it desperately needed the revenue. Full stop. Remember Awk Council was at its statutory borrowing limit relative to income. How do you solve that....

I have argued the rating valuation several times in the past on my property assets, and in each case had it lowered. Also remember the Council Valuer is the lowest tenderer. My last one was some tiny company based on Waiheke Island.

Auckland City shows same improvement trend over past 3m compared to 10m:

Total sales have improved to - 4.3% (compared to 2018) (the 10m drop was - 9%)
Residential sales improved to - 1.7% (10m drop was 4.2%)
Apartment sales improved to - 20% compared to - 22% for 10m.

So, there is improvement, especially in Auckland City.
But, how much of an improvement is it when stock is up and interest rates are down?
I would say, not so much of an improvement as some claim.
Be interesting to see if November continues improvement in sales drop (NOT increase in sales on previous year note)

Yee hii pardners !! ...happee dayze are here again ! ..just how long can we keep the PPP (propertee ponzee partee) goin' on here in lil' ol' Aucks ...y'all betta saddle up and ride to ya nearest auction house ...put ya monee down ... sign dis here "sail n' purchaze" agreement ....and tie ya'self' up to one of 'dem "beeg 4" aussie banks with a fat juucy mortgage.....put ya self in da "death (mort) grip (gage)" .....yee hii pardners ..I'm off over those yonder hills an' alwayz rememba "the bank (or casino - same thing !!) always wins" ....Yee haa enjoy ya mortgage slavery !!

Funny, but sadly the exact type of thinking that will keep you poor. Debt on consumables is terrible indeed, mortgages on the other hand are wonderful and the greatest way to financial freedom

House investment is good but depends on number of factor.

FHB streching to extreme and borrowing for FOMO is bad unles they find something good within their budget, as nothing like moving in to your own home and better than paying rent.

Have witnessing many who are borrowing to extreme and it is them who will be worst hit if the market changes again and chances are that it may, as economies world over are passing through tough time (Low interest rates are indicator of the same) - supported by dole from governement and reserve bank, so sooner or latter, it has to burst. Also though interest rates are low for now and may be in near future but what hapens if and when they move up ?...........Loan are for 25 Years or 30 Years many a time.

'FHB streching to extreme and borrowing for FOMO is bad unles they find something good within their budget, as nothing like moving in to your own home and better than paying rent.'
Exactly right. The problem, of course, is that many FHBs can't find something good within budget.

Housing IS a Consumption Item?

The consumption of housing is the final outcome of expressed demands for housing in the private market controlled by supply and demand theory.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08882746.1994.11430208

Funny too Yvil.....that debt paid on an asset, that is not appreciating in value, is only making the banks richer..... your "assumptions"are based on ever increasing property prices, with stagnant incomes ...and of course you want the "PPP" to continue, as YOU have many "vested" interests in it..... Take yourself out the picture for once and stop "pushing" your ideas onto others, to suit your modus operandi ...you sound like an advertorial.

Debt on consumables is terrible indeed,

If there were no debt for discretionary spending, the economy would be toast. Why do you think the emergence of AfterPay has happened? AfterPay is shifting the debt burden of the consumer to the 'cost of sales' of the retailer or seller.

As for discretionary spending, supermarkets selling loaves of bread for $1 is a pure example of a tactic for chasing that spend over the competition. Important part of psychology for chasing the cash-strapped NZ consumer.

Haha. Question does anyone know if interest only is still a thing or have the banks stopped it?

IO loans are definitely still happening, will depend on the borrower's financial situation though

Still for 5 years though? (mine was, but the bank now indicates 'for a year or two'. I guess 'free money' provided to customers for 5 years, no interest payable if it was 100% Offset, didn't suit them!). Anyway, it's interesting to see how the wording has tightened up since a number of us raised our concerns with the Ombudsman (for what that was worth! But it was an educational exercise)

Pieces of media propaganda plays used by ASB and interest.co.nz. Let's have a look.

1. Yes, those who thought it was a 'good time to buy' is significantly higher statistically from quarter to quarter. And we know that it's the 'highest proportion in 7 years.' However, we don't really know if it's statistically any different at all for each quarter in P7Y (except the last).

Statistically stronger for a single quarter? Meh.

Is this basic stats important at all? Yes, it is. See point 2.

2. 59% of people are indifferent as to whether it is a good time to buy or have "no idea" (those who have no idea probably include a few philosophically minded people).

So almost 60% of the representative sample really don't have the confidence either way to suggest that prices are going up or down.

Any data can be read to suit individual vested interest.

Rememebr that real estate lobby is a a very powerful and rich so most in media and experts have to speak their language.

Nothing new.

Yes, but fair to point out that the propaganda belongs to ASB, not the real estate lobby. Mind you, ASB is part of the property cartel. In fact, I would say that the banks are the most important cog.

Real estate lobby and all who benefits - with housing ponzi.

Its looking like a return to boom times to me. Open the Property Press its about 80% "Auction" and there is practically nothing listed with a price. RE's are clearly talking up the market to the sellers. The FHB market in Auckland is now HOT and anything under $800K is being snapped up.

So you understand real estate markets by reading ads. Have you applied any machine learning to this or is just your gut feeling?

FHB buyer market under $800K being hot can understand but even million dollar houses at the moment are being sold though not all but those that are being sold are going at a premium.

If current situation continues next year will be boom time and if not..............wait and watch

Thank you Nostradamus

Nostradamus will not wait and watch but Predict.

No point waiting and watching any idiot can do that you need to predict or have a feeling for where the market is going and for the next 6 months its up.

You are correct Nostradamus could have predicted and Now you :)

What you predict, is it true or not only time will tell if you are nostradamus or idiot

W3

These predictions have become an hourly game now ?
Keep Calm and Enjoy the Barbie.

Greg, are you able to dig in further as what JK last visit direct to CCP no1 is all about? - soon as he's back from the meeting, there's a surge of Chinese interest around AKL again. I suspect most of OZ banks started to smile about specially the ANZ. Someone from the reliable(I knew right) Chinese presidential news sources surely can shed us the light here.