Ninety percent of New Zealand consumers will delay making at least one major purchase due to the current Covid-10 lockdown, according to a survey by market research company Penrose Data.
The online survey of more than 1000 New Zealand consumers was taken in two stages, the first prior to the lockdown on March 21 and the second after the first week of lockdown on March 27.
It showed that more than 90% expected to delay purchase decisions of major products as a result of the lockdown, with the most commonly mentioned items being recreation/sports products and computers 34%, followed by property or vehicles 33%, home appliances 32% and furniture 29%.
Only 9% of respondents said the lockdown would not affect their major purchases, and more than half said they were not confident about their financial situation.
Just 45% of respondents said they were confident in their financial stability but perhaps surprisingly, that figure was the same in both surveys.
The survey also showed that many people had initially experienced difficulties obtaining basic supplies such as bread immediately before the lockdown began, but that situation improved over the lockdown period.
Thirty five per cent of respondents said they had experienced difficulty buying bread prior to the lockdown but only 20% reported the same problem in the second survey, while the number that had difficulty buying cleaning products dropped from 35% to 24%.
However despite the difficulties the lockdown has created, most people believe it is working, with 70% of respondents in the second survey saying they thought it had been effective.
Those who had experienced difficulties buying basic staples were more likely to have a negative view of the Government's response to the crisis.
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64 Comments
I guess relying debt to grow house prices is ending and house prices to keep growing has ended.
Anyone buying a house now is thinking how low will they go ???? and how much will bank lend me today not yesterday.
Had buying my first house on hold anyway, due to crazy price inflation out here in the regions, so will continue to hold and just maybe there might be house price decreases.
I'm sure the govt will do whatever it can to keep the Ponzi going. Can't have asset to debt ratios getting even worse now can we?
With even minor blips in the economy, house prices in regions such as Whanganui, Gisborne, Timaru etc drop the most.
So lets see what happens this time....
I think Alk is going to take a hit due to more people working remotely and offices downsizing.
Could be a few potential FHBer's in Auckland who find themselves working from home on a permanent basis as employers move away from offices, enabling them to look to purchase a house pretty much anywhere in the country.
Couldn't agree more, those essentials renters; doctors, nurses, rubbish collectors, physiotherapist, dentist, barbers, pilots, fortune tellers etc. - They also can opt to purchase/own or keep as renters in virtual/simulation mode even. We have doubling our backup plan from comms pipeline accidental cuts - Save lives, stay at home. Those cruise ships also lining up, to be converted for RE room for sales (still unsure if it's free or leasehold) - keep refreshing the online auction web page.
Gee, 70% of Kiwis feel the government have been effective? You wouldn't have known that from the comments on this website!
I cant stand this government , but apart from the idiocy of the health minister, we have seen the various Ministries RBNZ and Treasury doing an excellent job.........and they are sailing in unchartered waters.
So I think they have been effective as a Government , but we are lucky to have an excellent Public Service led by excellent people
I cant stand this government , but apart from the idiocy of the health minister, we have seen the various Ministries RBNZ and Treasury doing an excellent job.........and they are sailing in unchartered waters.
So I think they have been effective as a Government , but we are lucky to have an excellent Public Service led by excellent people
Boatie, do you think this govt. sail around that Hawaian active volcanic sea level above marauding moving molten lava underneath? if so how shallow is it? or Are they sailing around White Is. with rosy tourism pic of live volcanic witnessing majestic activities, I have no clue about sailing, perhaps you can elaborate further 'the preparation/our readiness' on this uncharted waters? from the FIRE economic point of view?
The Lockdown.
I wonder who are those in 10% . The bankers' families?
Whoever they are, they are going to pig out on some bargains.
90% of people closing their wallets guarantees the recession will be horrible. Cue helicopter money to break the downward spiral?
"I wonder who are those in 10%"
Property promoters such as Tony Alexander, Ashley Church, Bindi Norwell, et al ?
Just watched an interview Tony Alexander did with Ray White on 6th April 2020 (2 days ago)
Tony Alexander - now after 2 weeks of COVID 19 lockdown, massive 180 degree change after the horse has bolted - "opportunities" = price drop which Tony missed.
Now calling for "opportunities" (euphemism he uses for house price falls) when he has been telling people to that property prices are expected to rise. Recent buyers who took Tony Alexander's advice and bought property with high heels of debt will be potential collateral damage. Property is illiquid and will take at least 1 month to sell.
He is hoping that the returning Kiwi expats will fill the demand ...
I know of several Kiwi expats living abroad in US, UK, Asia, Australia - NONE are currently or planning to return to NZ. They have already established their careers in their current localities. Their families are integrated with the local community. Perhaps younger expat Kiwis who are not yet established, on their OE, and lose their jobs may choose to return to NZ - it will be unclear whether they have sufficient funds for a deposit to buy a house. Also they will not have jobs upon returning to NZ, so will be unable to meet bank debt servicing criteria (which require an income).
Tony Alexander is claiming he has been telling people for the past 2 years of potential risks. He is now backtracking and trying to protect his reputation. That behaviour is so deceitful & dishonest, and is what one can expect from a slick oil salesman. He has potentially ruined so many lives, caused so much loss of financial security (potential bankruptcies, loss of funds for use in retirement), psychological trauma and mental health issues (such as depression, and anxiety), and potential suicides.
Many commenters have been warning on interest.co.nz to give people a different perspective so that people could make a fully informed decision and this gave sufficient time for people to act. People made their choice and acted accordingly. People now face the consequences of their choice.
Is this what Tony just did?
Is this the beginning?
What type of owner lists their property for sale during a nationwide lockdown? Perhaps the impatient, the fearful?
Lockdown date: 26 March, 2020
Property listed for sale date: 2 April 2020.
Property in Auckland just listed for sale by a property trader. Bought on 30 Jan 2020 for $430,000 (massive 38% discount to RV of $630,000). Now listed for sale after 2 months of ownership.
Some observations: external wooden stairs not painted, decking not painted, fence not painted, unable or unwilling to get home staging in. Perhaps urgent to get to a basic sellable condition?
https://www.trademe.co.nz/a.aspx?id=2594393889
https://www.qv.co.nz/property/12-broadfield-street-massey-auckland-0614…
More property traders likely looking to get out, as their expected sales price after selling costs may now be lower (under current conditions) than their cost of purchase plus cost of renovations and financing costs for the period.
That 90% of Kiwis will delay purchases is no surprise........covid19 is hardly catnip to any of us
My wife and I have sat down and done a plan with short, medium and long term outlooks. The short term assumption is that I will lose my job in six months, the medium term has us living on my wife's income for the following 18 months, and the long term is no substantive paid work income from that period on until we pass. We will have children at home and a four year gap until Superannuation is available. Buying a home for the children is still a possibility but that is the only big purchase in our plan. There will be no new appliances, cars etc for many years. Right now it's about preserving savings (Kiwi bonds) and later avoiding whatever taxes are introduced (maybe no second home for the children). Interesting times.
Yep. Avoiding future taxs will be the key. Whoever gets in power next time.
The biggie would be if GST is increased. That one would affect everybody. Its a hard one to avoid.
Purchasing long lasting big value items soon would be the way, but what are those items?
GST increases are insidious as the increase is a tax on existing savings, it just takes a while to collect. If there are circa $320 billion in customer deposits at retail banks and the Government lifted the GST rate from say 15% to 20% then it’s $16 billion in taxes on those deposits. The best part for the Government is that most people would only see it as a tax on new earnings.
Question re your employment ExEx, I understand you usually deal with advising distressed companies? Still not expecting much security?
Rick, this situation is well beyond my comprehension. Usually a company gets into trouble because it has failed to adapt to developments e.g. slow debtor collection, incorrect stock mix, poor cost control and/or over leveraged balance sheet. It is often limited to one entity so you are advising on the levers to pull to bring it back to the norm, but where do you start in the current situation? Based on our plan we have enough to survive on a household income of $70,000 per annum for the next 25 years. That will leave the home unencumbered for the children.
Sobering stuff. Hope you and the family keep well.
I've found myself contemplating a future with a multigenerational household, depending on what central banks do to the savings of the likes of you and I - and my elderly parents who depend on their savings.
No such a thing as black swan.. only ugly little grey spotty duckling. Post lock down, as many economist believe the FIRE economy will pick up again.. light up by direct trade support with China.
'90% of NewZelanders..........'.
Still RE Agents are calling and sending email with news/ message and trying to invoke FOMO.
When will this breed understand and face reality that what is happening now has never happened before and do not try to tempt specially FHB who many may be gullible when they too know that going forward market will fall and their is a possibility of many losing the value of their deposit.
Real Shame and time to expose their greed and unethical personality/ character in the name of business.
FOMO yeah right more like FOMOOL fear of missing out on losses unless of course the seller is giving you at least 20 percent off it is a risky person or crazy who pays what agents are trying to sell homes for at moment.
Also insist the agent gives you a asking price not neg over or auction as this is the game they like to push up the price if they say no then just walk away.
All driven by equally despicable 'opinion' pieces such as this
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/37788
I think all commentators NZ Herald use should be forced to sit an NCEA level 1 exam on their 'expert' matter. If they fail, they should be barred from providing articles until which point they can prove competency.
I respect his optimism. Not much more.
Is he being paid to promote property?
OneRoof is a property website. Anything that depresses volume is seen as counter to their vested financial interests. His opinion is not independent wh whatsoever in my opinion.
When markets prices are going up he promotes property and is willing to talk about future market prices going up.
When market prices could go down, stay away from mentioning that property prices could go down, try to talk up investor confidence.
So we can talk about the direction of property prices only when they're going up - so pro-cyclical.
If property prices experience a large fall, then the high profile property promoters will lose all their credibility with the public (Like the ones during the property boom in Ireland)
Their jobs, they all banking on the same payroll; JK/Zollner/ANZ/blue team/NZHerald/tonyalex/oneroof..etc. - they're all still tied up to one silent sponsor CCP capital out means purchase land then assist on it's people movement, to make 'magic weapon' works? from certain place, then people need to move there first.
If we both still have jobs in 6 months time I'll be delighted. Even minor purchases on hold until that time in our household.
.
I'm def not delaying purchasing some masks when they become available. Jail time in Morocco for people out and about without wearing them. Can't believe advice they are not useful for everybody. Ask yourself why nurses and doctors wear them when they look after Virus patients?? Bit obvious actually.
https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/coronavirus-world-live…
It's called "viral load" - i.e. doctors and nurses are with people with infections all day and in close proximity. Whereas most people, myself included, go to the supermarket and back and interact with people for a few minutes and not in close proximity.
Ok. So why dont we wear masks for just these few minutes we are out and about?
If we were to ask those who have come down with the illness thru casual close proximity, whether they wished they had worn one what do you think the answer is?
So many countries are going to advice of wearing a mask (if you can get them).
Watch this space and by all means call me out if the advice does not become a crescendo by this time next week. Meanwhile my cleaned N95 is getting another outing for the block walk this arvo.
A gold-standard pandemic response definitely includes ALL people wearing masks at ALL times in public.
My suspicion is that the stocks of masks for healthcare workers were not at a high enough level, and the govt. didn't want the public running out and depleting the stocks before they had a chance to obtain some more for the front line, hence the messaging about masks not being effective. Dangerous gambit, though. Because now we've got a populace that believed the official line and will be very difficult to sway.
Whilst masks may be of limited value in protecting each individual, with everyone wearing them the viral spread is much more contained.
If everyone correctly used a properly fitted N95 respirator mask there would certainly be a benefit. But not even trained medical professionals put on and take off masks correctly every time, and done incorrectly the mask itself is a source of infection.
Random bits of material don't do anything - the virus can pass through, and people fiddling with them constantly just means more contamination of surfaces.
Ha ha Doris, you should giggle when seen any of those healthcare professionals not even trimmed their beard. During my specific mask grade training fitment for asbestos working environment, the clean shaving is the first to be mentioned, keep your beard/mustache? not allowed in the course. Breakout like this? hospital is the last place you want to visit - Why? don't ask, we worked as healthcare professionals for donkey years.
My wife is (was) a Travel Broker = zero income for foreseeable future, 50% of my business is in luxury items, so expecting a 30% drop in that too.
Our personal spendathon is in lock down for sometime... Back to brewing beer and making sausages.
A great choice in activities! But please have some greens too :)
I wouldn't want to be a boat seller right now.
Boats, cars, holidays, massage, nail technicians, restaurants/cafes............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Nor a business owner with large chunk of wealth tied up in a highly leveraged property developer with projects still under construction, with very little if any presales. Pre sales are likely to be cancelled and deposits forfeited by off the plan buyers.
Or anyone with large amounts of debt.
Thank you for sharing the link. Have chosen not a subscriber in that publication.
There are secret workarounds. Not very secret, really.
Pertinent part:
Buyers of high-rise Auckland apartments The Antipodean are complaining about settlement requests this month, saying the pandemic means they can't get inside to see what they are buying. Three buyers contacted the Herald, saying although completion of the big new block was more than two years late, they were now being asked to settle their purchases in just over a week.
...
"That's right in the middle of lockdown," one buyer complained. "Purchasers can't even view the completed development to understand if it has been built in accordance with the sale and purchase agreement," said one owner, who was buying a unit for more than $1m. "I think most people would find this extraordinary, given that the development is two-and-a-half years late in its delivery. Yet the developer chooses a time like this to action settlements, which I'm sure many [pre-purchasers will find] difficult," the unit buyer said.
Thank you RickStrauss
FB you should channel your energy, to procure those Cruise ships luxurious rooms as 'mobile RE' - would be nice if it can be auctioned on Trademe (mention free/leasehold), Covids clean certificate etc.
Like all downturns there will be winners and losers, as Warren Buffet says when the tide goes out those without togs are exposed. If we can eradicate Covid-19 in NZ our bounce back will be much stronger, people will be able to go about their business without fear. The 4 million International visitors not coming will be partly replaced by the 3.5 million Kiwi's not taking a overseas holiday. The upside to a recession is to put the economy on a diet and redistribute resourses to make the economy stronger. There will be job losses and company failures but life goes on and this time will pass.
Yes I think recessions can and should be quite regenerative. But we've created a paradigm that a recession is the end of the world..must be avoided at all cost. We're going to destroy the economy in the process of trying to save the economy...makes sense!
Perfect comment. It reminds me of the policy of the greens in Oz who banned backburning for several years before the bushfires as they thought it caused too much damage. They kept the status quo until one day last year somebody threw a cig but out the window and all hell broke loose. Its good to do away with the deadwood sometimes if not just to let new green shoots pop through. Its in these times that real progress is made.
Absolutely fanciful, it's amazing the numpty's who still believe in this stuff. https://factcheck.aap.com.au/social-media-claims/the-burning-truth-abou…
Let's just keep repeating Barnaby and ScoMo because they are such brilliant leaders! Pathetic individuals with no credibility.
No smoke without fire : )
No truth without proof.
Newsflash: People can make things up, to tarnish others, to make themselves look better. Prideful narcissists do it all the time. Case in point.
Provide evidence or admit you are wrong and retract statements. By continually spreading propaganda though you make yourself look like a shill.
Yeah, it's pretty shocking, am stunned that so many still believe it. Your average aussie though just eats it up, have heard it so many times from Aussies...
Economy in ventilator .....Let the economy cycle play like life cycle......
Agreed fully, but I need to clarify Shoreman point of view. In the case of our prolific keep afloat FIRE economy, by throwing all this confetti money at all cost? the hope is when we are all swimming naked, then when all the waves clean/dry up - .. hopefully we all landed in a nudist paradise, so nothing to be ashamed of, those with clothing, we shall rip it off from them. Now, what I'm just unsure is.. how big this nudist paradise size, beach?, the whole island? or as big as OZ continent? EU size? USA size? etc. - if that the case.. I give my unpleasant one finger salute to this Corona - We are all naked here, what you are you going to do.. infect us? excuse the pun.
Totally agree Shoreman.
already many improvements and more efficient working which will increase productivity -- which s after all way more important than volume.
As someone who works in Health -- there has always been enough money -- its just been badly spent -- and at the moment -- the use of teleconferencing - video therapy sessions is massively increasing the amount of contact time -- as opposed to driving, waiting and of course environmental costs -- and this is just the start - homeworking will be the norm with huge family and environment bonuses - not to mention the loss of all those wasteful interruptions, useless meetings etc
lets get rid of the virus - keep it out and focus on building businesses for the next century not the last
And we'll have a new appreciation of our Food Producers, and even some Novel Foods like locusts, crickets, grasshoppers, and mealworms. Although, as a founding and perhaps sole member of People for the Ethical Treatment of Insects (PETI) I have to say that keeping these small yet wonderful creatures in Cages or even Barns is simply abhorrent. As with hens and pigs, this might well be subject to Citoyen Action to relieve their miserable lives. I do look forward to seeing Free-range Grasshoppers at Fresh Choice.....
In Australia they are expecting 20% falls in property values.
But according to One Roof we're diffrunt.
Yes Brock, even One Roof will shock if I elaborate that.. the RE vested interest was loong way to the top, bottom, sideways.. the 'sub-conscious' of actors at play here, they're all invested heavily in FIRE economy personal level contribution. JA talked differently before finally purchase the roof, Boutique economist being laugh at here often then turn into buyer, Orr's entire team also in the musical chair, ministers, central/local body govt. etc. - We're diffrunt on that front as collectively, 'they are' at the helm.. will try as much to 'preserve' the plane from crashing.. it's just that.. as what you would imply.. the plane is in the mid air, with pilots frantically doing everything, plane following gravity, miscalculated petrol, miscalculated plane total weight, neglected engine, landing gears & flap maintenance, expecting autopilot/radar approach for guided landing, alas the nearby towers not responding.. ouh what to do,.. remind me of Gary Larson cartoon, panicking pilots, horror/pondering face, looking from front cockpit view,.. 'how that goat appear in the cloud?' ground/front radar have been switch off to save battery.
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