Strong rise in March migration numbers as more New Zealanders returned home

Property

March net migration gain more than double what it was in March last year as kiwis came home to roost during COVID-19 pandemic

14th May 20, 11:46am by Greg Ninness

There was a strong surge in population growth from migration in March, driven mainly by New Zealand citizens returning home as COVID-19 restrictions began to bite around the world, while fewer New Zealanders left the country to live overseas.

The latest figures from Statistics NZ show that 5784 NZ citizens returned to this country permanently or long term in March, more than double the 2181 that returned in March last year.

Conversely, just 1735 NZ citizens left the country long term in March, down from 3258 in March last year.

That provided a net gain of 4048 NZ citizens in March compared to a net loss of 1077 in March last year.

Migration of non-NZ citizens followed a different pattern, with arrivals and departures both down compared to a year ago.

There were 7436 non-NZ citizens who arrived long term in March, down from 8551 in March last year, while 3021 departed long term, compared to 3952 in March last year.

That gave an overall net gain of 4415 non-NZ citizens in March, down only slightly from 4599 in March last year.

Overall that meant there was a total net gain of 8463 people in March, more than double the March 2019 net gain of 3522.

However, Statistics NZ has warned that the latest figures are more uncertain than usual, due to COVID-19 travel restrictions in New Zealand and other countries, and may not be indicative of a long term trend.

"More New Zealand citizens than usual have migrated home, for a number of reasons, including possibly seeing New Zealand as a safe haven," Statistics NZ Population Insights Senior Manager Brooke Theyers said.

"At the same time, New Zealand citizens may have been unable or reluctant to head offshore."

Statistics NZ said the March figures were provisional, and were subject to revision, especially as some New Zealand citizens who recently returned may head back overseas once border restrictions were relaxed and international travel resumed.

The interactive chart below shows the long term trend in net migration numbers:

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Net long term migration

Select chart tabs

Source: Statistics NZ

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45 Comments

by stuart786786 | 14th May 20, 11:54am 1589414082

Many overseas kiwi who have or may lose job may not be protected by government of that country, which they will be if in NZ. Also health reason/safety, many staying alone overseas may find comfort to come back to family back in NZ.

by Kezza R | 14th May 20, 11:58am 1589414332

Will Oz kick out Kiwi's who are not earning their keep? An extended send criminals home.

by Masher | 14th May 20, 12:07pm 1589414849

More xenophobic prejudice. Any Kiwi that returns will be by choice depending on their circumstances. To propose they will kick Kiwis out due to their employment status is just ludicrous.

You don't like Australia. We get it.

by sharetrader | 14th May 20, 12:59pm 1589417946

maybe you missed it , australia told kiwis without support to go home last month, way before WP said the same here for people on working permits with no job
Australia's government is advising New Zealanders living there without means of support to go home.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/jacinda-ardern-hits-out-at-australia-s-time…

by Masher | 14th May 20, 1:38pm 1589420332

Thats different to kicking them out like old mate suggests. Ultimately the decision still lays with the person.

by Foreign buyer | 14th May 20, 2:07pm 1589422053

Yip, starve or go home. Good choice.

by Ralph | 14th May 20, 2:36pm 1589423761

Shrug. Winston told foreign nationals in NZ the exact same thing.

by Nzdan | 14th May 20, 12:09pm 1589414955

Numbers to be celebrated, welcome home.

Mind you, citizens were allowed back into the country as a "right of return" under the Fourth Geneva Convention. People leaving country, not so much due to the lockdown.

by company of heroes | 14th May 20, 12:18pm 1589415512

Good to see more kiwis are coming back. Hope that they will create more job opportunities for locals and boost our economy.

by Fritz | 14th May 20, 12:27pm 1589416070

Who knows the characteristics of the returnees. Some / many may have lost jobs overseas, and come home to NZ as a refuge, staying with family.
Some may have no job here.

by printer8 | 14th May 20, 12:29pm 1589416163

. . . . and buy a house with those Euros and $A they bring back?

by RickStrauss | 14th May 20, 1:09pm 1589418561

Wonder if it's actually the high-earning expats who will be the ones most likely to lose their jobs and head home, though.

by CN | 14th May 20, 1:31pm 1589419896

What is the likely demographic of most of the returning Kiwis?

1) people returning from OE as they are unlikely to be able to stay in their location
2) people who have lost their jobs and unable to stay abroad for financial reasons
3) other?

What will be the financial circumstances of these people?

The follow up questions are important:

1) can they buy a house without a mortgage?
2) if the answer to 1) is no, then
a) do they have sufficient cash for a deposit to buy a house?
b) can they get a mortgage?
c) the answer to b) is dependent upon:
i) will they get a job?
ii) does that job pay enough to service a mortgage to buy a house at current house price levels?

How many returning Kiwis are going back to live at mum & dad's place?
Will they buy if they can't get a job or are unable to borrow a sufficient amount to buy a house at current prices (due to their income level)?

by GV 27 | 14th May 20, 12:28pm 1589416103

Now it's just a matter of housing them in a market that cannot supply housing and not creating downward pressure on the wage market at a time of labour surplus.

This day of reckoning has been a long time coming. It will not work out well for anyone.

by Yvil | 14th May 20, 12:19pm 1589415569

It's hard not to see NZ as a great destination to live in, if NZ keeps CV under control

by Ben72 | 14th May 20, 12:59pm 1589417948

Yes a house to all returning Kiwi’s at the right price

by loganmdonnelly | 14th May 20, 12:47pm 1589417235

I'd love to see a continued look at how many non-kiwis are leaving.
I imagine a boat-load of migrant workers in Queenstown will go home over the next few months as jobs dry up?

by bw | 14th May 20, 12:59pm 1589417945

Good thought.
and...those returning Kiwis might want to head to Queenstown because the mass of rentals that are going to swamp their market is going to make renting, cheap!
Now. As for the job part......

by sharetrader | 14th May 20, 2:19pm 1589422781

unlikely most will try to ride it out, after all this is now their home
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2020/05/coronavirus-migrant-worker…

by Noncents | 14th May 20, 10:15pm 1589451318

I don't think they will leave en masse. It is safer here even with no job.

Also if global lockdowns continue I wouldn't be surprised if Govt's start to either"look after" citizens even if they are abroad. or arrangements are made for migrants to be given temproary rights in their host country.

by Houseworks | 14th May 20, 1:02pm 1589418137

Figures for march is one and a half months out of date. There have been calls for more up to date stats

by Greg Ninness | 14th May 20, 1:48pm 1589420922

Stats NZ have advised us that they are publishing daily updates of border-crossing data at COVID-19 data portal and weekly updates at Provisional international travel statistics. which you may find useful.

by Adam B NZ | 14th May 20, 1:38pm 1589420280

Doesn't seem like many Kiwi's have come back yet to fill the void of all of the migrants that have just left. I saw a Media report on TV that 50,000 migrants left NZ before lockdown. It will be interesting to see the final figures. I expected much higher numbers of Kiwi's coming back pre lockdown.

by Lapun | 14th May 20, 2:45pm 1589424342

My interest is permanent residency where ever they chose to then live. From https://mbienz.shinyapps.io/migration_data_explorer/

31/10/2019 Approved 3,660
30/11/2019 Approved 2,826
31/12/2019 Approved 2,229
31/01/2020 Approved 2,817
29/02/2020 Approved 2,754
31/03/2020 Approved 2,175
30/04/2020 Approved 72
Dramatic change.

by Lapun | 14th May 20, 2:50pm 1589424654

For Work Visas
31/10/2019 Approved 24,210
30/11/2019 Approved 19,869
31/12/2019 Approved 16,416
31/01/2020 Approved 18,843
29/02/2020 Approved 17,958
31/03/2020 Approved 15,222
30/04/2020 Approved 2,922
and for what our skilled immigration policy has meant since at least 2015 read Newsroom "Stuck migrants working for lentils".
https://newsroom.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e0ae259e8f9472b9c54…

by kpnuts | 14th May 20, 3:44pm 1589427856

excellent --- lets fill all the jobs there may be with peopel who live here first -- and only then when unemployment is non existent shoudl this number go up -- and more importantly -- make sure everybody in this number is bringing a NEEDED skill shortage -- DR, health professional , engineers -- and not tour guides and chefs !

by Mike1 | 14th May 20, 2:53pm 1589424837

I have moved back after 17 years in the US. Based on what I saw in CoronaJail most of the returnees are poorer people who had been living in Australia. Several seemed very unlikely to have been working wherever they had been.
There was also quite a few Chinese people who were picked up at the end of their isolation period by local cars. They also looked to be poor (NZ does not seem to have attracted the same Chinese immigrants that moved to the US).
One lady wore Islamic clothing and appeared to have never seen Auckland before: she spent a lot of time taking photos of all the buildings.
If the virus kicks off again the fairly haphazard quarantine is going to be where it comes from. No one coming in is tested (unless they are obviously sick) and the nurses working at these places have no idea that Covid can by asymptomatic. I was told "If you don't have a temperature, you for sure do not have it". Social distancing does not exist.

by Beanie | 14th May 20, 3:10pm 1589425827

If that's an accurate description of how our quarantine facilities are run then heads should roll.

by Mike1 | 14th May 20, 7:59pm 1589443140

I'm trying to be nice in how I described things to be credible. People tend not to believe you if you say how things actually are. The one good thing thing they are doing is keeping an eye on people (it would be hard to disappear) but everything else seems almost designed to spread the virus.

by Noncents | 14th May 20, 10:17pm 1589451439

This is NZ, the only head rolling will be ROFL

by Lapun | 14th May 20, 3:11pm 1589425867

Frightening. Prof Spoonley told our U3A meeting that us elderly should be thankful for the Chinese keeping our house prices high (he forgot most of us old codgers with houses also have adult children and grandchildren unable to buy). Auckland has a mix of Chinese - In my experience some very wealthy and some searching for bargains at the Salvation Army; I know several who are as charitable and honest as anyone could want but then I read of the ones importing drugs, beating up their partners, etc. Clearly NZ's immigration policy has been too naive to actually sort out the sheep from the goats. OK I'm a POM immigrant and I don't mind a Chinese Kiwi making the same comment about my compatriots. I do object to being told all immigration is good; that is greatly under-valuing Kiwis.

by CJ099 | 14th May 20, 3:52pm 1589428368

Yeah I've found the same. Most of my friends including my Asian friends have struggled to afford a home here in AKL and we're mostly GenX. Ironically it's my Chinese friends that feel the most upset about it, since they feel they've missed the boat especially if they were born here in NZ.

They also recognize that the previous government was far too lax about allowing dodgy money to flood in to the Auckland housing market from overseas and now we're stuck with over bloated house prices that no one can afford (Well unless you're a money launder).

by Lapun | 14th May 20, 6:15pm 1589436928

I'm reckoning on immigration almost stopping because of public pressure on politicians (my son is unemployed). And the middle class trying to avoid public transport - meaning moving from big cities to medium towns - and the result will be a massive correction to house prices where they are crazy (eg Auckland). So as an Auckland home owner my millionaire status will disappear but on the other hand my 4 adult childen living in Auckland will be able to buy and so I'll be happy - it is beyond time a couple of them left our home.

by PocketAces | 14th May 20, 8:34pm 1589445266

I reckon what will stop it will be the much higher cost of air travel as well as quarantine restrictions, likely at both ends, that will make prohibitive traveling back and forth to keep up with family or for them fly out here for a visit. It will be the absolute nature of it that it will become that will put people off emigrating from wherever they live.

by Fritz | 14th May 20, 7:54pm 1589442850

Spoonley is such a mass immigration-spruiker. Nauseating.

by Zachary Smith | 15th May 20, 7:18am 1589483928

In the post pandemic world Spoonley's ideas will be tossed in the dustbin where they belong .

by Lapun | 15th May 20, 8:41am 1589488883

Occasion he is. However he has the data for social trends, obviously he means well and in person is fairly charismatic but he lives in his academic/political bubble. And it is worth mentioning a society with zero immigration would not be ideal (eg N.Korea)

by theglc | 14th May 20, 4:25pm 1589430310

Thats disappointing to hear.. to say the least

by CN | 14th May 20, 8:46pm 1589445962

"I have moved back after 17 years in the US."

Mike1,

Thank you for sharing your immigration story. Welcome back to NZ. Just out of interest (as anecdotal story of returning Kiwi)

1) what were the motivations for moving back to NZ?
2) how many are in your family household moving to NZ (partner, children, etc)
3) are you planning on buying a house in the near term? If not, could you tell us, why not?
4) if not buying, where will you reside? - with family / friends in NZ, renting, etc
5) do you have a job to come back to?

There seems to be debate whether many of the returning Kiwis will be buying houses and just wanted to ask you.

Thank you in advance.

by Mike1 | 15th May 20, 5:45pm 1589521515

Hi CN,

1) Not dying.
2) Wife and two kids.
3) Zero chance. Asset prices here are silly.
4) Queenstown. Renting and fingers crossed the resorts open. If they don't we will likely make a different choice.
5) Our US businesses are still profitable. Not anywhere near where they were but they are still OK. We have rebuilt infrastructure and should do well once our competitors run out of funding.

From where I sit returning Kiwi demand will be minimal. Two reasons: quality of human capital/wealth of returnees and lack of bank confidence to lend. I think most well off NZers overseas will stay put as they will be required to to maintain their income. We were already remote operators of what we do so US or NZ makes no practical difference. That happened for us by accident so not claiming any foresight but it may work out OK in the current crazy situation.

by CN | 15th May 20, 6:48pm 1589525289

Thank you Mike1 for your thoughts.

by CN | 15th May 20, 6:50pm 1589525447

"Overall that meant there was a total net gain of 8463 people in March, more than double the March 2019 net gain of 3522."

net gain of 8,463 people in March - assume household size of 2.5 people means potentially 3,385 households.

by CN | 16th May 20, 2:32pm 1589596357

"The study of the 38,960 people who joined the Jobseekers' Benefit during April found they differed strongly from the usual intake of beneficiaries.

... A substantial proportion were newly returned to New Zealand from overseas (4718) - a ten-fold increase on the year prior."

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300013087/coronavir…

by CN | 14th May 20, 8:35pm 1589445326

"most of the returnees are poorer people who had been living in Australia. Several seemed very unlikely to have been working wherever they had been.

There was also quite a few Chinese people who were picked up at the end of their isolation period by local cars. They also looked to be poor"

Thank you Mike1 for sharing those observations.

These people don't seem to be potential buyers of a house in NZ ...

by Lapun | 14th May 20, 7:09pm 1589440178

Arrivals. Not good for airlines.

Type February - March - April
Australian 95,547 - 52,122 - 144
Diplomatic 144 - 63 - 3
Limited 2,712 - 2,229 - 0
Resident 38,964 - 20,016 - 1,074
Student 15,030 - 4,305 - 18
Visitor 214,983 - 87,204 - 291
Work 20,481 - 12,375 - 219
Totals 387,861 - 178,314 - 1,749