The idea that thousands of returning NZers will boost demand for housing may be nonsense

Property

Migration's impact on housing demand is now almost negligible, which should ease housing supply pressures over coming months

13th Aug 20, 11:57am by Greg Ninness

The idea that thousands of returning New Zealanders will boost demand for housing and help prop up the property market and boost prices in the process may be nothing more than an urban myth, or perhaps some wishful thinking put about by players within the real estate industry itself.

The latest migration figures from Statistics NZ show that while there was a significant turnaround in the migration patterns of New Zealand citizens in the second quarter of this year, it was overshadowed by even bigger changes in the migration patterns of non-New Zealand citizens.

In the second quarter of last year, 6830 New Zealand citizens returned long term after an extended stay overseas (these numbers exclude short term travel), while 9841 departed long term, giving a net loss of 3011 New Zealand citizens for the quarter (see table blow).

In the second quarter of this year those flows had reversed, with 2487 New Zealand citizens arriving long term, which was down 64% on a year earlier, while just 402 departed long term, down 96% on the same period of last year.

That gave a net gain of 2085 NZ citizens in the second quarter, compared to the net loss of 3011 a year earlier.

So yes, that would have boosted demand for housing from returning New Zealand citizens.

But overall demand for housing from migrants would still be way down from what it was a year ago, because more migrants from other countries are leaving New Zealand than are arriving.

In the second quarter of last year 23,111 non-NZ citizens arrived in this country long term, while 12,320 departed long term, giving a net gain of 10,791 non-NZ citizens for the quarter.

But in the second quarter of this year those flows had reversed, with just 913 arriving long term and 2197 departing long term, giving a net loss of 1284 non-New Zealand citizens.

Statistics NZ's data series for those figures go back to 2001 and the second quarter of this year was the first time they have ever recorded a net loss of non-NZ citizens.

Overall, that reduced the net population gain from migration from 7780 in the second quarter of last year to just 802 in the second quarter of this year.

That suggests demand for housing from migrants, whether they be returning New Zealand citizens or citizens of other countries, was down by 90% in the second quarter of the year compared to the second quarter of last year.

With the supply of new homes coming on stream remaining buoyant, that will have a considerable impact on the balance of supply and demand.

While demand for housing from people already living here should remain as strong as ever, migration driven demand has likely tailed off to the point where it is now only having a minor impact on the market.

If current trends continue, that should ease housing supply pressures over the coming months.

There has also been talk of more wealthy migrants from countries such as the UK and the USA moving to New Zealand as a safe haven from COVID-19 and the related social and economic turmoil it is causing. But so far, the numbers do not support that theory.

There were more long term departures from New Zealand by UK and USA residents in the second quarter of this year than there were long term arrivals, giving a net loss from both countries.

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

NZ Migration Trends by Citizenship
June Quarter 2020 compared to June Quarter 2019
	Q2 2019			Q2 2020
Country of Citizenship	Arrivals	Departures	Net Gain/Loss	Arrivals	Departures	Net Gain/Loss
New Zealand	6830	9841	-3011	2487	402	2085
Australia	1454	1075	379	118	110	9
China	2869	2246	622	163	461	-298
Hong Kong	191	103	88	23	17	6
India	2062	832	1230	132	65	68
Philippines	2753	351	2403	21	10	11
South Africa	2558	107	2451	75	15	60
United Kingdom	1638	1631	7	72	257	-185
USA	677	703	-26	85	113	-28
Total non-NZ citizens	23,111	12,320	10,791	913	2197	-1284
Total All Citizenships	29,941	22,161	7780	3400	2598	802
Source: Statistics NZ

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

82 Comments

by Glitzy | 13th Aug 20, 12:11pm 1597277481

It always seemed very optimistic re returning Kiwis. NZ has a high cost of living, poor quality housing stock and limited job opportunities at wage levels well below Oz and Asia. But probably as importantly folks have lives in foreign countries, the idea that tens of thousands will uproot and resettle here is indeed nomsense.

by K.W. | 13th Aug 20, 12:48pm 1597279724

Especially now that we've proven we're not actually Covid-free, and that we rush to extreme lockdown measures at the drop of a hat, unlike other cities and countries (eg. Sydney, Germany) who are simply managing cases while life goes on as normal.

by guwop | 14th Aug 20, 7:35am 1597347317

What K.W. said

by swapacrate | 14th Aug 20, 9:00pm 1597395631

Definitely not keen on this, bet you if someone died in your household your opinion would change. NZ is one of the best places in the world, as someone who is living through it and life is like living in another dimension. Cant visit friends, cant go to pubs, and this is by choice, as the government in the UK is nuts, it is rampant with thousands of deaths. My kids cant visit friends as its to much risk. Its an uncertain life, and horrible life where you walk around scared of catching something, everyone with face masks in supermarkets and towns. NZ if it goes hard and contains it, you have a relatively normal life. If only we can could have something so good.

by peter.may | 13th Aug 20, 3:46pm 1597290402

There are poor qualty homes in NZ - & every where else in the world. There are also plenty of very good quailty houses. I cant understand the blanket assertion that all NZ houses are poor quality

by Wazim | 13th Aug 20, 4:43pm 1597293810

Peter, I think it comes down to the percentages and perceptions of what 'quality' means. I think we can agree that no matter where in the world you look, the highest percentage of homes are for the working class. These will be relatively ' low value' compared to the ruling class or upper class or political class homes (nomenclature changes around the world of course) so what 'quality' means to a worker in Germany or Oman differs little from our worker housing in NZ. Warm, water tight, low maintenance or whatever your climate demands will be the standard that is broadly accepted. In NZ, our worker houses are generally of very flimsy and poor quality material and very high maintenance. I have never lived in or owned a house in NZ that I consider 'up to standard' they have all been a bit sh*t to be honest. The final kicker is that they are eye-wateringly expensive! even for a do-er upper in some dodgy neighbourhood. A German or an Omani would roll their eyes and accuse you of having a laugh!

by CourtJester | 13th Aug 20, 4:52pm 1597294371

I grew up in Hungary where the standard cheap housing equates to hideous concrete blocks that resemble hives more than houses. They were built (mass produced) in the communist era, the goal being housing as many people as possible for as cheap as possible.
Even these disgusting, ultra-cheap (back then), low quality, mass-produced blocks can be kept nice and warm at a reasonable cost during winters when the outside temperature goes down to -20 Celsius.
During my 29 years of living in Europe, I've spent one or more night in about ~100 different houses / flats / huts. I can remember 2 out of those being as poorly insulated as *all* the houses I've stayed in in New Zealand.

by Glitzy | 13th Aug 20, 9:09pm 1597309744

Peter, there are not plenty of 'very good quality' houses. The current building standard in NZ is UK circa 1980. No central heating systems, no thermally broken window frames, insulated slabs as the exception not the rule, prob less than 50 passive haus quality buildings in the entire country. Wake up and smell the coffee.

by braindrain | 14th Aug 20, 4:13pm 1597378400

If you've ever lived abroad in North America or Europe, it completely changes your expectations of housing. My girlfriend is a Russian migrant here in NZ and can't believe this housing exists in a first world country.

by swapacrate | 14th Aug 20, 7:56pm 1597391786

I live in the UK, and comparing the pebble dash coronation street houses, squashed together where the roads are over grown with weeds. I live in Surrey and it always amazes me how dirty the environment is, and Surrey is a nice area in the UK. Some houses in NZ I get. But in general NZ has nice open roads with plenty of space, gardens along the roads and well looked after. The houses are fine, some have dampness, but easy to fix. Obviously if you have higher expectations and the grass is greener etc, etc. I have lived in many types of houses in NZ, grotty ones and nice ones. Give me NZ any day.

by Logicthinker | 14th Aug 20, 8:26am 1597350404

Weĺl Glitzy, with Oz unemployment reaching one million now I wonder how many kiwis are effected directly or indirectly, i.e. australians who are unemployed looking at kiwis who are employed. I found the latter nerve wracking when I was employed there prior to covid.
In these times, a roof over your head is the main objective together with a job is desirable. Could a number of these specialised positions be filled from returning kiwis.

by mikekirk29 | 13th Aug 20, 12:18pm 1597277929

Thanks Greg. Good detailed data showing that net immigration is not adding anything to demand in Q2.
Price gains over CV esp in more expensive brackets in Auckland (over $1.5m) seem more to do with people being prepared to pay over odds for secure place to invest cash with massive stock market decline inevitable (hyper inflated markets up in USA for example 51% off the lows) as economic reality hits with lockdowns not banished. The surge in sales and prices in Auckland since 2009, mostly fell (hyperbolic phase) in 2014-15. Since when it has been in decline, except for period November 2019 to date. This last 8 months I feel, is connected with upper bracket gains in sales and prices due to above factors (safety seeking.) A lot of this purchased property will not be occupied but is just somewhere for super rich to stash cash. Remember that corporates are $9 trillion in debt which they used to buy back shares and cashed them out at peak. All that money is looking for a home and corporates do not have to declare country of origin when buying in NZ.

by mikekirk29 | 13th Aug 20, 12:22pm 1597278140

Note also that 2018 census forecasts a drop in numbers of adults in the crucial demographic (see Prof Spoonley today on same subject) of 25-54. That is prime buying group. So demand for housing will continue to fall (real demand, that is, ie people actually buying, not NEED, which is entirely different) Supply meanwhile is over-shooting due to to ramped up consents 2016 to date. So, as usual in housing building cycle, the two forces met at wrong vector and head off in incompatible directions. Over supply plus tightening credit criteria: what happens then...?

by Fritz | 13th Aug 20, 12:46pm 1597279577

Of course it's a myth, and it's one promoted by 'economists' like Tony Alexander who *should* know better.
Shameless.
The RSV's (Rent Seeking Vampires) love it though.

by Poppyc | 13th Aug 20, 12:32pm 1597278723

Might just be my very narrow focus on what I follow, but seeing more listings stating "Overseas vendor wants it sold!" (migrant heavy areas like NSC)
I can't really make up my mind on what is happening, if only because it is bizarreo world out there where fundamentals don't make any sense.

by Glitzy | 13th Aug 20, 12:38pm 1597279133

China is hurting. If you look at air quality as a good reverse indicator its fair to say Chinas factories and,domestic economy are slowing significantly. Add to that the Chinese are savvy investors. The question in my mind is whether this trickle of sales will slowly develop into a tide.

by Shoreman | 13th Aug 20, 12:43pm 1597279431

Fritz - If you took the time and read Tony's column called Tview Premium ( $110/year ) which is based on his own surveys you would realize how ridiculous your statement about him is. He is remarkably consistent in being very accurate of how our economy will operate in the future. The other end of the spectrum is Cameron Bagrie who always over dramatizes and over shoots in the negative with his predictions. We all have an opinion but I have followed Tony for over 20 years, and he has assisted me becoming very wealthy. That's my experience so bagging him is being ignorant of his talent.

by Fritz | 13th Aug 20, 12:50pm 1597279857

Sorry, but I didn't comment at all about the accuracy or nor of his forecasts. I agree he has been one of the more accurate forecasters, even if I can't stand his arrogant and patronizing personality.
I was commenting on a specific views of his, which is that a flood of returning, cashed up kiwis will bolster the housing market. It's a totally unscientific view that isn't supported by data.
Economists should be led by objective data and analysis, not by what pleases their audience.

by Yvil | 13th Aug 20, 3:45pm 1597290331

Fritz, you have not read TView, if you had you would know that Tony supports his claims with immigration numbers (over slightly different periods). It's just that you believe Interest's numbers. For my part I don't know which view is more accurate, so I have emailed Tony with a link to this article and asked him for clarification.

by Sluggy | 13th Aug 20, 4:00pm 1597291223

Does Tony run the alternative statistics society ? I maybe clutching at straws here, but at a guess stats NZ should be pretty close to the truth, although they have had their issues.

by Fritz | 13th Aug 20, 4:00pm 1597291225

Ok, Yvil, I look forward to the evidence - I wait in anticipation.
I strongly suspect that it's baseless speculation that suits his argument and the self interested greed of his subscribers, many of whom are multiple property owning investors...

by Yvil | 13th Aug 20, 4:39pm 1597293558

He has replied me and he pointed me to his TView of 4 weeks ago, where he delves into immigration numbers. As many like to make fun, it's a subscribers only email and its content is not to be publicly shared.
Fritz, more worryingly, whilst Interest provides great articles, it's not the only source of journalism and following only one source, no matter which one, invariably leads to tunnel vision and bias. For your own good make sure you remain open minded to other views

by Poppyc | 13th Aug 20, 4:54pm 1597294497

I think the rather simple question is what is the source of his data? Interest clearly states Stats NZ.
Any of his proprietary data doesn't need to be shared, just the source behind it.

Personally I don't care for Tony, but I have my own bias based on what I heard from within BNZ years ago (Stephen Toplis was the respected economist at BNZ, not Tony).

by Fritz | 13th Aug 20, 5:55pm 1597298146

That is a 'nothing' response, I am afraid.
Weak.

by Mrs The Point | 13th Aug 20, 1:03pm 1597280615

Why is it you feel the need to consistently promote Tview Premium? Maybe you should disclose your links, Tony?

by Fritz | 13th Aug 20, 1:23pm 1597281792

yeh, mentioning his service is one thing, mentioning the price is another. Suspicious.
Are we allowed to advertise in comments????

by MadMax | 13th Aug 20, 2:15pm 1597284951

Tview Premium is what everyone’s talking about
Only $110 too
Best commentator on NZ economy is our Tony Alexander
Oh, and you can also get Tview Premium for only $110, be quick, don’t dither on the sidelines

by Rob Reid | 13th Aug 20, 2:32pm 1597285939

I'm sorry, I only go for deals with steak knives

by thebrian | 13th Aug 20, 2:33pm 1597286022

does it have a sports and "adult" channel?

by Yvil | 13th Aug 20, 3:41pm 1597290085

It's a shame that children are allowed to comment on Interest...

by Glitzy | 13th Aug 20, 3:47pm 1597290446

Hasn't stopped you typing away.

by Yvil | 13th Aug 20, 4:44pm 1597293884

Com'on Glitzy, why not add "Naaa na na na naaa" while you're at it. How about we keep the discussions at adult levels please?

by al123 | 13th Aug 20, 4:50pm 1597294227

You started it.

by Glitzy | 13th Aug 20, 4:59pm 1597294758

You are a troll lacking any substance in any comment.

by Yvil | 13th Aug 20, 5:25pm 1597296321

Not interested in having a puerile conversation. Bye

by thebrian | 13th Aug 20, 5:29pm 1597296578

Karen left the building.

by Glitzy | 13th Aug 20, 5:40pm 1597297217

The troll has been banished. Children danced on the streets knowing Interest is indeed a safe place to comment :)

by thebrian | 13th Aug 20, 4:36pm 1597293418

ooh...you wait till recess.

by J.C. | 13th Aug 20, 3:01pm 1597287715

If you took the time and read Tony's column called Tview Premium ( $110/year ) which is based on his own surveys you would realize how ridiculous your statement about him is

I took Tony Alexander to task about his "surveys." In one instance, he was framing the findings as somehow representative of the wider public and I exposed this in front of him and his peers. I found this quite disingenuous as a 'professional.'

by Basil brush | 13th Aug 20, 3:38pm 1597289905

Let me guess. His advice was to leverage up to the eyeballs on property and roll around in tax free capital gains?

by EmperorXi | 13th Aug 20, 3:48pm 1597290505

Won't be surprising if the exact opposite happens, where the returning lads and lassies (saviors of the ponzi scheme) make a bee line for WINZ, cap in hand.

by MortgageBelt | 13th Aug 20, 12:26pm 1597278374

So many people coming and going through the borders in both directions.
Shouldn't the borders simply be closed? And only full citizens who wish to return permanently allowed in?
The housing market seems to be ticking along with or without returning kiwis.
But a nationwide L3 for 3 weeks, and an uncertain election date might either produce a speed flurrie, or a decline.

by J.C. | 13th Aug 20, 2:57pm 1597287469

So many people coming and going through the borders in both directions.

Oh yes. Keep away from Auckland International Airport. The crowds and traffic are nightmarish.

by Masher | 13th Aug 20, 1:29pm 1597282183

You've changed your stance.

I thought Kiwis were returning in droves to buy houses and Aussie superannuation would save the day?

The numbers proved your subjective theory wrong buddy.

by Sluggy | 13th Aug 20, 12:40pm 1597279223

Im pretty sure TTP has alternative facts on this.

by CourtJester | 13th Aug 20, 5:25pm 1597296317

TTP? Facts? More like vague references to "other people's" opinions... He never uses numbers.
"Some people are saying, that their friends think their neighbours would say that a big house price increase is coming..."

by Foreign buyer | 13th Aug 20, 12:42pm 1597279349

No sane person would buy a house in NZ at this time. Maybe in a year or two if/when prices go back to 2014 levels.

by Shoreman | 13th Aug 20, 12:51pm 1597279905

FB - The dinosaurs will roam the Earth before you get your wish. I would say every sane person should buy a house now. In a year or two or probably 4 or 5 prices now will look really cheap. The great thing is we all get to find out I'm picking 40-50% within 5 years, we can check in then 2024/2025.

by Sluggy | 13th Aug 20, 12:58pm 1597280318

Do you have any idea how disheartening that is for the average NZer who currently doesnt own a house ?

by Foreign buyer | 13th Aug 20, 1:01pm 1597280482

They don't care because they are ok

by Te Kooti | 13th Aug 20, 3:46pm 1597290390

If you choose not buy a house today in the expectation they fall in price and you get that wrong, do you put your hand up and admit it or blame the RBNZ/Labour/RSV/the cat???

It's a big call and perhaps you don't have the financial acumen to take such a risk?

by Fritz | 13th Aug 20, 1:01pm 1597280504

He and other RSVs simply don't care.
They are driven by self interest.

by Yvil | 13th Aug 20, 5:32pm 1597296738

Sluggy, I understand and agree this is disheartening for people not owning a house. But for one to get ahead and reach what one wants, it's very important not to confuse what one would like to happen (house prices to fall) with what is actually happening.

by Brock Landers | 13th Aug 20, 10:00pm 1597312851

Nobody knows what is happening. What we do know is that property prices are at EXTREME levels compared to historical norms and the economic outlook has never been darker or more uncertain. The future could be up, down, sideways or in circles. The virus certainly doesn't seem to believe in kiwi exceptionalism.

From the vantage point of a younger person its an insane gamble with inconceivable sums of borrowed money that they cannot afford to lose. Guess the wrong way and you (and worse your dependant family) are ruined.

The rent seeking vampires (RSV) come across as a bunch of particularly greedy people talking up their own book with scant regard for the devastating consequences these financial games have on kiwi families.

Apparently we should all celebrate casino capitalism though. The house always wins?

by peter.may | 13th Aug 20, 3:49pm 1597290552

Its a rare week that goes buy without I receive some notification of price increase for some element of a new house. Prices for new houses will certainly continue to rise as a consequence

by Jesse1 | 13th Aug 20, 1:16pm 1597281405

I wish this was true but the reserve bank is getting ready for negative cash rates, planning for lending directly to banks at lower rates, LVR is gone, and banks have lowered their serviceability threshold rate (this is a big one). It really is throwing everything at it and there's going to be lot of people who will take advantage of the situation who will push the market up, outweighing those that are forced to sell. There is no doubt that they are trying to boost the housing market and I think they will succeed. Again as a potential first home buyer I wish this wasn't about to happen.

by Yvil | 13th Aug 20, 3:50pm 1597290629

Foreign Buyer: "No sane person would buy a house in NZ at this time. Maybe in a year or two if/when prices go back to 2014 levels"

You do know that record numbers of people have bought houses in the last 5 weeks, many more than a year ago? So you're saying they're all insane (and you probably think you're the sane one)

by CourtJester | 13th Aug 20, 5:29pm 1597296557

You do know that a record low number of people have bought houses in May, 50% less than a year ago?

by Yvil | 13th Aug 20, 5:36pm 1597296965

Yes, I also know NZ was closed in April due to lockdown level 4, and half of May on level 3 therefore few could view houses to buy in May

by CourtJester | 13th Aug 20, 6:06pm 1597298801

Very good! Now think about it... is it possible, that there's some connection between people "not being able" to buy houses in May, and the high number of houses sold in June and July?

by Foreign buyer | 13th Aug 20, 6:16pm 1597299366

Person, Woman, Camera, Man, TV

by CourtJester | 13th Aug 20, 6:41pm 1597300909

You can't do that!

by rastus1 | 13th Aug 20, 1:11pm 1597281098

Thanks Greg. So good to read an article which is telling the story and not pushing a narrative. This is why I am happy to contribute to intdotco.

by Miguel | 13th Aug 20, 1:28pm 1597282086

The "returning kiwi's boosting the housing market" idea has come entirely from those with a vested interest, and there has been been scant evidence to support it.

The actual migration data shows what was previously driving total housing demand (both rents and house prices) is now almost a non-factor. But what hasn't changed much is the total new housing (consented years ago) coming onto the market. The mortgage deferrals and wage subsidies are also putting a temporary hold on any impacts, combined with a "backlog" of people trying to find accomodation, all means it will take a while to play out.

Both the demand and supply side of housing are both going in the right direction to reduce our housing issues.

by Fritz | 13th Aug 20, 4:02pm 1597291367

Exactly.
But Yvil seems very confident that Alexander will have objective data to back up the claim.
I am not holding my breath...

by Averageman | 13th Aug 20, 1:30pm 1597282257

Sure there may be the odd perminant return. A lot are back to mum and dads and free dole, and when it "all clear" they are gone again never to pay tax here again.

by Fritz | 13th Aug 20, 4:04pm 1597291457

All the successful 'cashed up' people I know who are based overseas are staying overseas. And that even includes a couple of people who have lost their jobs.

by Foreign buyer | 13th Aug 20, 1:44pm 1597283060

Imagine if the only way to stop a housing crash was to pay peoples wages who are not working and to allow mortgage holders to not pay their mortgages (or have a holiday ; ) . Sorry spruikers there is only one way from here.

by Davo36 | 13th Aug 20, 3:33pm 1597289609

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12…

Negative rates man, they'll pay you to take out a mortgage haha. In this topsy-turvy world it makes perfect sense!

by RickStrauss | 14th Aug 20, 2:44pm 1597373056

One thing is for sure and that is that speculators should never be expected to stand on their own two feet and take responsibility for their own risk.

by taimaiakka0 | 13th Aug 20, 2:35pm 1597286154

Immigration and FB is absent but still housing market is touching new height despite panademic and recession as supported by QE and low interest rate.

by VeryInterested | 13th Aug 20, 2:43pm 1597286624

Yep more spruiking by the property industry. Examples everyday in The Herald. Wonder when they are going to cover all the houses that have been for sale for months. Maybe these almost non existent overseas Kiwi buyers could buy those? When you see spruiking at the level seen in Australia and New Zealand you realise both countries have too many eggs in one basket.

by shawking | 13th Aug 20, 3:42pm 1597290166

Noticed that was the figures for citizens only . Any figures for permanent residents?

by al123 | 13th Aug 20, 4:01pm 1597291294

Presumably permanent residents make up a large proportion of the non-nz citizens entering the country.

by Greg Ninness | 13th Aug 20, 4:04pm 1597291468

People that were NZ residents but not NZ citizens, would be included under their country of citizenship.

by Fritz | 13th Aug 20, 4:17pm 1597292249

Maybe these are some of the returnees that Tony A and other RSVs think will bolster the housing market:
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122424628/coronavirus…

by Rob Reid | 13th Aug 20, 5:19pm 1597295965

Right - Not a lot of sustenance there for an RSV - barely a light snack and move on. I suppose a whole, like, suburb of them could add up...

by CourtJester | 13th Aug 20, 5:34pm 1597296843

The words "accommodation supplement" get the RSV's juices flowing

by CJ099 | 13th Aug 20, 5:22pm 1597296149

"If current trends continue, that should ease housing supply pressures over the coming months.
There has also been talk of more wealthy migrants from countries such as the UK and the USA moving to New Zealand as a safe haven from COVID-19 and the related social and economic turmoil it is causing. But so far, the numbers do not support that theory.

There were more long term departures from New Zealand by UK and USA residents in the second quarter of this year than there were long term arrivals, giving a net loss from both countries."

The upshot of it is, if Auckland sales start to soar again then it's more then likely from our old favorites who are currently sending UK prices up. FT article: Hong Kongers eye UK property as they weigh escape routes
British homes are relatively cheap for city residents unnerved by new security law. https://www.ft.com/content/095d38d3-c5c6-43eb-b428-c72ffd08a5fe

by guwop | 14th Aug 20, 7:15am 1597346148

Why would anyone from the team of 1 million sacrifice their mobility for an indefinite stay on Paranoia Isle?

by Erewhon | 14th Aug 20, 7:33am 1597347214

There is quite a big leap in this article. The leap is that it combines returning NZers with Non NZ citizens, and assumes both act the same when it comes to buying property.
Are we to assume that the net increase of >2,000 cashed up NZ citizens returning to NZ would not be wanting to buy property? I’d suggest they are more likely to buy and are the greater number.
Are we to assume the non NZ citizens arriving from India and South Africa will buy property vs renting? They are less likely to buy property (at least initially) and are the lower number.
The demand for property is demographically different so why are you combining the two into the same statistic.

by brisket | 14th Aug 20, 11:32am 1597361564

I dunno about the assumption that returning NZers are 'cashed up'. Purely anecdotal, but the ones I know are all young people who were in Aus, working in eg. hospitality... lost their jobs or just felt it was too risky to stay with places closing left right and centre and no access to social welfare. Very far from 'cashed up'. No doubt there are some, but I'd like to see actual numbers.