Population gain from migration remains well below 1000 per month

Property

Population growth from migration down by more than 90% compared to a year ago

14th Dec 20, 11:57am by Greg Ninness

Population growth from migration remains at less than 1000 people a month, down by more than 90% compared to a year ago.

According to Statistics NZ, there was a net migration gain (long term arrivals minus long term departures) of just 884 people in October, compared to 10,224 in October last year (see the graph below for the monthly trend since the beginning of last year).

There were 2618 arrivals in October and 1733 departures, giving a next gain of 884.

That compares with 17,121 arrivals in October last year and 6897 departures, giving a net gain of 10,224.

So the numbers of both arrivals and departures have reduced considerably compared to last year.

There was a net gain of 1227 New Zealand citizens in October, with 1639 arrivals and 411 departures.

However more non-New Zealand citizens left the country than arrived, with 979 arrivals and 1322 departures, giving a net loss of 343.

Of the 2618 people who arrived in the country long term in October, 1734 were New Zealand or Australian citizens (4656 in October 2019) , 410 had residency visas (1376 October last year), 28 had student visas (2249 in October last year), 298 had visitor visas (3306 in October last year), and 134 had work visas (4470 in October last year).

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50 Comments

by Squishy | 14th Dec 20, 12:27pm 1607902034

Do we expect to start to see a pickup in New Zealanders leaving for Australia now that route is open in one direction? I'm very happy that the highly effective Pfizer vaccine has started to be rolled out, not sure if travel restrictions will be rationalised in light of new developments (the lack of a Trans-Tasman bubble suggests not) but I'm sure some countries will use this opportunity (as Alan Joyce indicated Australia might.)

by Henry_Tull | 14th Dec 20, 12:54pm 1607903697

Good point
travel restrictions will be rationalised .....
Current restrictions appear not rational.
Given current inter State travel in Australia.

by Advisor | 14th Dec 20, 12:55pm 1607903757

Do we expect to start to see a pickup in New Zealanders leaving for Australia
What makes you say that? Higher wages, cheaper rents and food, better housing standards? Ardern said in an interview that she isn't concerned about Kiwis leaving because the government is creating 'great opportunities' in NZ to live and work.

by Brock Landers | 14th Dec 20, 1:12pm 1607904740

Great opportunities to live in squalor and work for your scumbag landlord.

by Narrabeen Boy | 14th Dec 20, 1:36pm 1607906215

Wow that hurts Brock.

by Flying high | 14th Dec 20, 2:26pm 1607909187

Why don't you bring forward the date of your home acquisition Brock ... a lot of fhb will use the Xmas break to look and buy so any agents working thru will be busy. Stock levels in chch are dropping extremely fast

by Shoreman | 14th Dec 20, 2:31pm 1607909477

Advisor - Good old Assy you forgot to mention - CGT, Stamp duty 4%, means tested super both Asset and Income thresholds, snakes of course, bushfires, ridiculously hot summers, no welfare for Kiwi's, racism, croc's , lots of sharks hence shark nets at the beach, not to mention over regulation in just about everything try boating !, and of course the place is full of Australians - go for it mate, I have lived in many places around the world, no where is perfect but NZ is a lot more perfect than Assy.

by youngdumbandbroke | 14th Dec 20, 2:49pm 1607910548

Yet Kiwis leave in droves and often don't return until retirement age. Either they're all stupid or you're wrong

by Shoreman | 14th Dec 20, 3:59pm 1607914778

YDB- Best go and work it out for yourself old chap

by EmperorXi | 14th Dec 20, 9:12pm 1607933552

Just got to love the friendly snakes and critters that crawl in on those hot days, not to mention the darling Aussies who treat kiwis like poor fawning cousins who want to come and work on the farm. Unless you're in IT or willing to drive in the outback whilst camping in some God forsaken town like Moranbah.

by youngdumbandbroke | 15th Dec 20, 8:27am 1607974024

My sister has moved to Perth about 6 years ago. Husband is earning 3x what he was as a meat works labourer here. She's a newly qualified nurse on 90k + overtime bonuses. It is tempting

by karl seastrand | 15th Dec 20, 11:49am 1607986165

ydb..Perth is a great place to live as long as you don't mind long flights when you travel. Good weather, nice beaches and low cost of living. Although they may run out of water in a decade or so.

by Hook | 14th Dec 20, 5:32pm 1607920376

Don't hold back Shoreman - tell it like it is!!. TbF I totally agree, if people want to head to Aussie - close the door behind you

by LASSET | 14th Dec 20, 8:08pm 1607929727

Agree with all of the above. We have family in Australia, and I've always enjoyed visiting there for activities. But I have zero desire to live there. Possibly having a bit more cash in hand is the least of the considerations to be honest.

by Casual Observer | 14th Dec 20, 5:02pm 1607918524

re vaccine from BBC:
"What do we still need to know about the vaccine?
The announcement gave us the headline, but there is a still lack of fine detail.
We do not know if the vaccine stops you catching and spreading the virus or just stops you from getting ill. We also don't know how protective the vaccine is in different age groups.

These will be crucial for understanding how it will be used."
https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-54880084

by Henry_Tull | 14th Dec 20, 1:03pm 1607904189

And has the Immigration numbers into NZ are driving the property housing boom, has that tune also departed the country?

Asking for a friend....

by Flying high | 14th Dec 20, 1:07pm 1607904478

A solid NO from me Henry. Have you seen the housing stock levels, Auckland under 9000, nationwide 23200, lowest totals by far for last 14 months.

by Sluggy | 14th Dec 20, 9:40pm 1607935213

You honestly buy that ?

by Flying high | 15th Dec 20, 7:06am 1607969218

Yes and you obv have a future in secondhand car sales

by hemihua | 14th Dec 20, 2:22pm 1607908960

Of course not. Immigrants, like any human, need a place to live do they not? Overall, we didn't lose population over COVID, we just gained a lot less than we normally do. So all the housing pressures that already existed are still there. If we paused where we are for a while and kept immigration low, maybe in a few years building supply will catch up! One can dream...

by kiwiana02 | 14th Dec 20, 2:53pm 1607910784

HT - in my view, is likely the current house price frenzy was driven off the very high net immigration over 2019/20, also low interest rates will have had an effect. From memory, net immigration was in the order of 90,000 in the year to end March 2020, which was 50% above the previous year. Now that net immigration has been stalled in its tracks, due to COVID 19, will there be a ( negative) house price response next year?

by nigelh | 14th Dec 20, 5:22pm 1607919762

Long live Labour's Covids immigration policy.

by Lapun | 14th Dec 20, 12:57pm 1607903874

One month's figures are little more value than one day's figures. Since there is no publically discussed national policy for immigration it has to be deduced from figures since the last change of govt.
The most significant figure is the granting permanent residency since that is hard to reverse. The total for the last 3 financial years is: 120,027 and for the previous 3 financial years with a different govt was 142,821 but the last year of both (2017 v 2020) is almost identical: 47,000. So no policy change. Whether the quality has changed is not revealed - it could be estimated from IRD salary data but that is kept secret.

by Matt_B | 14th Dec 20, 1:55pm 1607907308

There were some very high resident approvals mid to late 2019. Higher than average.
It was Labours 2017 election promise was to reduce immigration by 20k per year. They did not meet this promise.
From recent data they look to be approving again at average rates, will be people that a currently onshore, a few that have been offshore.
Still family that havent been in NZ for several years and have tries to residents have been able to come back to NZ since October.

some trends you can put together below.
https://mbienz.shinyapps.io/migration_data_explorer/#

by CourtJester | 14th Dec 20, 3:42pm 1607913722

You conclusion might be wrong. It takes at least 2 years to get the permanent resident status after a person enters New Zealand. So some policy changes might have a delayed effect and would only show up in stats 2 years later.

by Andy Rodgers | 14th Dec 20, 1:05pm 1607904312

"Can you think of any problem in any area of human endeavor on any scale, from microscopic to global, whose long-term solution is in any demonstrable way aided, assisted, or advanced by further increases in population, locally, nationally, or globally?" Professor Albert Bartlett, an expert on exponential growth.

by Timmyboy | 14th Dec 20, 1:20pm 1607905230

“the greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function” Al Bartlett again.

by Chris-M | 14th Dec 20, 7:34pm 1607927647

Recalling an article from North and South earlier in the year. Quoting a study by Swedish and Canadian universities.
" every child generates the equivalent of 58.6 tones of carbon emissions per year, and the study found that having one fewer child was 25 times more effective than the next most effective measure: ditching the car, which save 2.4 tones of carbon per year."
We don't want more people in New Zealand or anywhere in the world. Accepting the overflow of surplus people from other parts of the world simply enables them to continue to over produce people without facing the consequences of their actions. In the end we will end up just as over populated and suffer the same problems.
Even 1000 extra people coming into the country is 1000 too many while we have the housing catastrophe that we face.

by karl seastrand | 14th Dec 20, 1:55pm 1607907332

It seems so obvious that if this trend in sensible immigration levels continues for another few years almost all of our housing and rent issues will be minimized if not completely solved. I just hope our Government does not put the wishes and well-being of migrants (and greedy employers and landlords to a lesser extent) ahead of the interests of our own people.
The less well-off in our society are suffering terribly through paying a huge proportion of their income in rent, having their wages undercut by unskilled migrants(masquerading as skilled) and seeing their hopes of home ownership dashed under the weight of huge additional demand for property and jobs caused by cruel and uncaring (to our struggling Kiwis) immigration policies that needlessly allow unsustainable numbers to pour in while we perversely market such harmful and callous madness as a strange form of international kindness, diversity and inclusivity. The social divide this causes and the cost to our poor is prohibitive. Is it sensible to provide food and shelter to foreigners while so many of our own kids are going hungry?
Obviously it takes time to see the positive effects of much lower immigration so it would be sad to see anyone try to contend(pretend) that increasing rents and property prices during a time of lower immigration disproves there is a direct correlation.
We want to be kind to everybody and would love to be able to welcome everyone into our country but the cost to society and our poor is just too much to allow it. Blood is thicker than water. Kiwis first.

by Njay | 14th Dec 20, 2:31pm 1607909503

Couldn't agree more.

by theglc | 14th Dec 20, 3:00pm 1607911232

Yes it seems that the lack of immigration over these last few months have not impacted us much at all. sure less students but lets face it 90% of that is a sham anyway.

We could do with another 5 yrs of covid if it wasnt for tourism...

by Pusheen | 14th Dec 20, 11:17pm 1607941036

Wishful thinking, even when you put capital movement in=people movement=0? for at least 3-5yrs. This govt & RBNZ already agreed what constitutes an economic stability for this country. So, clearly wrong to even think if there's a housing crisis, affordability that means. As the golden chalice for solution has been found, 'NZ just realised in absent of incoming capital? - why not just simply print more of it' - voila, genius Kiwi ! - Now, in 5yrs a single garage potentially cost about $500K at least, the authority could just simply print to that amount & give to the family that need.

by kiwikeith | 15th Dec 20, 8:52am 1607975558

Karl One of the most sensible comments I have ever read

by Carlos67 | 14th Dec 20, 2:32pm 1607909552

We can only hope that these low levels continue until at least the middle of 2021. I'm not holding out much hope that the vaccine is going to be the magic bullet everyone is expecting it to be. For starters 50% of people asked are not going to take it. Definitely not taking it myself, why would you living in New Zealand ?

by Njay | 14th Dec 20, 2:32pm 1607909542

How about 2031???

by theglc | 14th Dec 20, 3:04pm 1607911496

"why would you living in New Zealand"

because covid will become like the yearly flu, it will never disappear.

Once the boarders open up there will be a wave of infections amongst non immunised and still significantly more deadly than the flu

by WellingtonInvestor | 14th Dec 20, 4:56pm 1607918201

It is more deadly, but it seem to mainly more deadly to older people and outliers. They are also mainly the ones that die from normal flu. So immunizations may get the levels down to a similar death rate of the flu. I don't think we are going to be getting rid of covid in a hurray. I suspect to travel, people will be required to be immunized.

by Weld | 14th Dec 20, 6:32pm 1607923923

The Spanish Flu disappeared, so perhaps the CCP-flu (aka Covid-19) will also.

by linklater01 | 14th Dec 20, 3:24pm 1607912697

Carlos67,

How bizarre. Are you anti vaccine, or just this one? What about the flu jab? What evidence do you have for your 50% figure, or is that just plucked out of the air to fit your 'argument'? Whether or I want to travel abroad, I will certainly take it.

by Carlos67 | 14th Dec 20, 4:39pm 1607917184

the 50% figure has been on multiple news channels including ours and Aljazeera with polls in the USA. I'm not ant-vax just this one. Prepared to wait until they perfect it thanks, the current versions include "Side Effects" such as death, I'm not kidding. Nope I do not take the yearly flu jab either thanks, why feel crap after that when I don't get sick anyway.

by blobbles | 14th Dec 20, 5:07pm 1607918834

Would you take medicine that was rushed to market that has skipped much of the "long term affects" trails that normally occur? I don't think it's so much anti-vaccer, more like anti-rushed-to-market medicine of any variety...

by Flying high | 14th Dec 20, 4:00pm 1607914852

"why would you living in New Zealand ?"
Depends where you are in noo zilund, border opening to Ozzie and others before long so tourist hotspots incl Auckland a must imo

by WellingtonInvestor | 14th Dec 20, 4:53pm 1607918038

New Zealand has been importing the size of a small city every year into NZ for close to a decade. Yet have we been building a new city each year (eg have we been building enough houses and infrastructure for them)?
Cramming these people into existing stock and infrastructure is going to break at some point in the future. It is one reason along with almost zero percent interest rates, that house pries have been dropping so much.

by PocketAces | 14th Dec 20, 6:40pm 1607924416

We've got all these new housing developments chewing up good growing land, and dollars to doughnuts, it's not housing planned for those in the most desperate need for it, so who the hell is it for?
I think we might end up with a surfeit of McMansions and nothing for the displaced from all this mass immigration nonsense.
I am picking once the covid main danger is over, there is going to be an exodus of people who have NZ citizenships/residencies of convenience and I am not sure we are going to see the heady days of mad immigration again, it has been exposed as the big ponzi it always was, a means for people to rort other people in immigration scams.

by karl seastrand | 14th Dec 20, 9:10pm 1607933413

PA.. I fear you are dead right. If you are a renter trying to save for a deposit, immigration is the nut low or maybe more to the point it's like someone (the Govt) imposing a 20% rake on the game. The current system makes it all but unbeatable for 90% of renters. Meanwhile the Govt is insisting on continuing to deal existing homeowners three cards every hand while pretending to run a square game.

by Simon | 14th Dec 20, 8:52pm 1607932378

“Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate the corrections, than lost in the corrections themselves”

-Peter Lynch

by karl seastrand | 14th Dec 20, 9:20pm 1607934030

Simon.. It is a good quote but pretty it was said in relation to the share market rather than the property market. Your post reminded me that I was one of those (stupid) investors who tried to anticipate the stock market this year and suffered badly because of it.

by Pusheen | 14th Dec 20, 11:07pm 1607940458

Wait until first Q1 of 2021, more educated, skilled & experienced Kiwis jumped across the ditch. More wages, good well priced affordable housing, lower grocery cost. The state of origin NZ groceries & Banks.

by Camel's back | 15th Dec 20, 9:12am 1607976772

Immigration settings about right. And look.. the sky hasn't fallen on our heads yet. And the the 40,000 new arrivals we didn't get, are not looking for rentals.. give it another year and we might start catching up.

by karl seastrand | 15th Dec 20, 11:56am 1607986603

Cb... exactly, and give it another 3 or 4 years and we might not even have a problem any more. Surely it is worth a try.