Auckland likely to dominate housing market activity over winter

Property

Listing numbers suggest housing market activity may be heading back to pre-COVID levels over winter

2nd Jul 21, 10:48am by Greg Ninness

Residential real estate activity over winter could be settling back to where it was before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Property website Realestate.co.nz received 7769 new listings in June, down 14% from the 9033 new listings it received in June last year.

However June last year was marked by a rush of new listings as the market started opening up again after being subject to various levels of pandemic-related restrictions in April and May.

That was mainly driven by a surge of new listings in Auckland.

The new listings for June this year were much closer (+3%) to the 7545 new listings received in June 2019, before the outbreak of COVID-19.

However activity remains heavily skewed towards the Auckland market, which accounted for 40% of all new listings received in June this year, barely changed from 39% in June last year, but well up from 34% in June 2019.

There were 3081 new listings for Auckland properties in June this year, down 13% year-on-year, but up 20% compared to June 2019.

For the rest of the country excluding Auckland, there were 4688 new listings in June this year, down 14% year-on-year, and down 6% compared to June 2019.

So while overall market activity could be heading back to where it was two years ago, Auckland seems likely to remain the main driver of activity over winter.

The table below shows the number of new listings received by Realestate.co.nz in each region in June, for the last three years.

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28 Comments

by Luke83 | 2nd Jul 21, 11:09am 1625180963

The show goes on, a, friend of mine is, sadly caught in the, I'll wait for the market to change then I'll buy, two years on he's about $300,000 plus k behind the game and would require like a 25/30% market drop to be where he wants (dreaming) 3 to 5% is, cheap money for a mortgage, next 12 months will be another 10% increase, watch this space

by TheGreatPlum | 2nd Jul 21, 11:33am 1625182400

Comma comma comma comma comma chameleon

by tothepoint | 2nd Jul 21, 1:36pm 1625189780

Wellington and Auckland housing markets are likely the best two markets in the country for investors. And, after a phenomenal increase in prices over the past year, Palmerston North remains a good punt.

I started recommending Palmerston North about 3 or 4 years ago. Those who took my advice then, would be smiling now.

Finally, for all the conspiracists here (e.g. Brock Landers and his motley DGM crew) I have no interests whatsoever in the real estate agency industry.

Enjoy the weekend, everyone. Don’t overdo the open homes - there are better ways of spending one’s time.

TTP

by J.C. | 2nd Jul 21, 1:09pm 1625188166

Wellington and Auckland housing markets are likely the best two markets in the country for investors.

Why? What's the ROI? These kind of troll statements are empty and easy to debunk. For ex, history shows us that most property markets that have behaved like those in Awks and Wells have 'crashed'. There is also a probability that these markets will crash too. The average punter has no idea how to quantify that probability. So to suggest that these markets are 'better' is plain dumb.

by russellj | 2nd Jul 21, 7:17pm 1625210224

So Govt added 10,000 bureaucrats with their nice secure salaries bet u mostly Wellieand Auckland perfect mortgage applicants

by Luke83 | 2nd Jul 21, 1:42pm 1625190145

Jog on plum you keyboard warrior

by Bananafishbones | 2nd Jul 21, 2:24pm 1625192693

To be fair,it was,funny.

by Luke83 | 2nd Jul 21, 4:26pm 1625199983

Yea, but he's a tool. Defiantly lives in his mums basement.

by JustAnOpinion | 2nd Jul 21, 12:09pm 1625184594

The market will change but he needs to be in some growth asset while he waits, at least to distract him from his misfortune. All logic would have suggested a correction by now but logic didn't know that the RBNZ and Labour government had entered the chat...

Logic : HP2E ratios of 12.5 to 1, the market must fall.
RB and Labour tag team : "hold my beer"

by stuart786786 | 2nd Jul 21, 2:40pm 1625193641

A colleague brother was about to buy a house for $900000 last year in February by paying a deposit of 20% but he lost his job and now have got another job but similar house that he could buy earlier is now appox 1.3 million and needs another $80000 for deposit. Now if manages a loan would be borrowing 1 million compare to earlier $700000 and Robertson and Orr highlighting that now with low interest rate, houses are more affordable to FHB. No shame in making fun of FHB.

by mikekirk29 | 2nd Jul 21, 11:11am 1625181072

Cycle
June 19 was still in lowest part of trough that began in mid 2017
So if listings near that, this shows simply that mania spike is over

by Carlos67 | 2nd Jul 21, 11:23am 1625181830

Its not over yet, everyone can see another 10% price increase coming due to inflation and on a $1M purchase thats huge. At least another summer of madness to come. Even an OCR rise in November is going to add fuel to the fire now at this late stage, making it clear that summer is your last chance to get in.

by Brock Landers | 2nd Jul 21, 11:59am 1625183977

10%? Nah. I reckon it's another 50%. Before august. 300% over summer. Everyone can see it coming.

Plenty of room for upward valuation.

Be quick.

by brisket | 2nd Jul 21, 12:03pm 1625184201

I wonder if there's any way to get up-to-the-minute figures on bank pre-approvals for property lending.
Surely that would be the best possible leading indicator?

by Carlos67 | 2nd Jul 21, 12:12pm 1625184761

True it would be a great leading indicator of the total number of people entering the market with the intention to buy. The Bull Run continues, this thing still has legs.

by mikekirk29 | 2nd Jul 21, 2:48pm 1625194126

Market led by those who have no need to borrow, they drive up median prices, locomotive pulling powerless carriages

by JustAnOpinion | 2nd Jul 21, 12:03pm 1625184239

The G-forces of house price acceleration will kill us all.

I have also seen a really appreciable increase in lease-hold sales. This is another hugely depressing development.

by tothepoint | 2nd Jul 21, 1:35pm 1625189734

Hi Brock,

We can always trust you to lean on the pessimistic side……

TTP

by HouseMouse | 2nd Jul 21, 1:06pm 1625188008

Now all the rezoning has been flagged, that will push the market higher. Maybe not HPI so much, but certainly median

by Flying high | 2nd Jul 21, 11:16am 1625181385

Fewer listings across the mòtu than in the last 2 years. That story still is playing out as there are plenty of buyers scrambling for what is on offer. Nearly all auctions are sold on the day

by JustAnOpinion | 2nd Jul 21, 12:05pm 1625184321

"looks like I picked the wrong day to give up smoking"

by Clefton Twain | 2nd Jul 21, 2:57pm 1625194655

Looks like I picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue!

by Flying high | 2nd Jul 21, 6:06pm 1625206011

As a former glue sniffer, you can now wake up and smell the coffee

by Flying high | 2nd Jul 21, 12:19pm 1625185150

Excluding Tamaki Mak, listings dropped by 14 percent yoy and 6 percent (300 homes) from the same month on 2019

by CWBW | 2nd Jul 21, 12:36pm 1625186214

Looks like the usual portfolio reshuffling.

Great opportunity to stage for a reopening of the borders post COVID.

The market is well and booming.

by stuart786786 | 2nd Jul 21, 2:32pm 1625193139

No one can beat if prime minister of the country and governor of reserve bank supports and promote a ponzi.

If this two people support shit and start promoting, will not be surprised if shit is turned into speculative chip and keeps rising and stinking.

by WellingtonInvestor | 2nd Jul 21, 4:34pm 1625200482

Why does the NZ housing market feel like a speculative bubble like crypto? There is also so much noise about property, creating FOMO and greed.

There were 60000 listings over 10 years ago. Now there are only 14000. Lack of inventory is partly causing this, along with the cheap money. But house prices have actually dropped in Otago by 4% in a year, where they have enough inventory on the market.

by ozzzy2 | 2nd Jul 21, 8:01pm 1625212868

Thanks. I just signed up for the sole reason to say, bullshit! Otago prices, and in particular Dunedin, have gone up more than most anywhere else.