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The lockdown hasn't slowed galloping house price inflation with average values in Auckland rising $23,000 in September

The lockdown hasn't slowed galloping house price inflation with average values in Auckland rising $23,000 in September
flying house

The average value of all homes throughout the country is edging closer to $1 million, as values continue to rise during the latest lockdown.

According to the latest QV House Price Index, the average value of New Zealand dwellings was $977,456 at the end of September, up from $963,046 at the end of August. That's an increase of $14,410 in a month (QV's values are based on sales during the previous three month period).

The latest increase comes on top of a $10,968 increase in the national average dwelling value in August, which means that the average value has gone up by $25,378 over the two months the country has been under some sort of lockdown restrictions.

Since the beginning of this year the average value of all homes throughout NZ has increased by $138,826.

In Auckland the average value of homes increased by $23,346 in September alone.

The  chart below shows the average values in the country's main urban districts at the end of September, and their percentage change over the previous three months.

This shows that the area with the highest average value and also the highest rate of growth was Queenstown-Lakes, where the average value was just over $1.5 million. That's up 9.4% over the previous three months.

The lowest average value was just down the road in Invercargill where the average home is worth $460,389, making Invercargill the only main urban district in NZ where the average value is under $500,000.

Rotorua had the lowest rate of growth over the last three months at 0.8%.

Over the 12 months to September the country's average residential property value is up 26.3%.

"Ongoing lockdowns are continuing to impact the number of fresh listings, particularly in Auckland and this has possibly contributed to another strong month of value growth, with buyers continuing to vie for limited stock," QV General Manager David Nagel said.

"We're hearing anecdotal evidence from agents that appraisal enquiries are on the rise in many locations, a great signal that spring might finally provide the listings we'd normally expect," he said.

"A flood of new listings will provide some welcome relief for house hunters."

 

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117 Comments

Just like delta, the housing market cannot be stopped.

It's not even summer yet.

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22

... so , the great Grant Robertson " tilt " hasn't taken effect yet ? ... Gosh ... now there's a surprise ... .... Not !

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Rents are moving up as well.

TTP

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12

+ Minimum wage 

+ Building supplies

+ Fuel

+ Land

... the list goes on.

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5

Hi Mr Frank,

Don't forget toilet paper...... There's a looming shortage of such convenience merchandise.

TTP

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TTP ....in your infinite wisdom down there in "green 'n white country", have you ever wondered what would happen if the Government stopped today all the current subsidies ? ......while have you ever talked to an Auckland cafe owner recently ? 

 

 

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8

, have you ever wondered what would happen if the Government stopped today all the current subsidies ? 

I think I know what would happen. The bubble would start deflating, possibly quite quickly. 

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6

Not deflation, implosion. The closing of all bars, cafes, hairdressers in Auckland for a start... 

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1

So where's the 'cooling' the experts have been talking of... 

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11

Yes if "cooling" means going from 1000 degrees to 990 degrees.

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12

Whenever RBNZ and Government is under tremendous pressure to take some action,  will see data/ news that housing market is cooling as all are hand in glove with each other and happy to manipulate and twist to support the ponzi.

Where is DTI that Mr Orr has been pleading with government for ages and now that he has it.........

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16

The Govt could easily produce modelled data to support their policy stance. 

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2

A model doesn't mean it's true. 

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1

OCR needs to go up a whole 1 percent next month. 

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27

But it definitely won't. 

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14

Agree, the OCR should be raised immediately and significantly, as a matter of urgency.

Orr was very fast to lower the OCR by 75 bps an an emergency measure; he should be equally fast in bringing the OCR back to 1% NOW, which would still be unsustainably low, but at least a first step towards some sane interest rate levels.

But he will not do that, as he knows that the housing Ponzi is very fragile. He will only raise by 25 bps in November, and grudgingly so.

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Since July, major bump in many area 100-150k ..so the pause this year, to date, was the second quarter April - June.

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Agree with that. I bought another 3 properties since July this year but since then the same properties now sell for 100k more. 

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Is that settlements? They will be for pre-lockdown sales before the OCR moved. 

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Last year house price rose by 35% and Government/ RBNZ response was that were taken by surprise and this year too it seems that will be more so will they again give excuse of being ignorant and surprise after ignoring data - which is highlighting that house price is by appox $8000 to $12000 per week.

Mr Orr take overnight decession without discussion to support the ponzi but when it comes to controlling is not even ready to discuss DTI and other measures that may harm the ponzi and the reason given is lockdown in Auckland - WHAT A FARCE.

Does it not exposes him and his likes !

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Talk it up Greg! 

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The absurdity continues.

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"Absurdity" is relative to which side of the fence you are on.

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A lot of people who own think it's absurd too.

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... with a grin on their faces.

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10

No, they are worried that society is going to reach a tipping point into instability, and that their kids cannot ever afford their own houses.

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It doesn't really benefit owner occupiers at all. In fact it makes things more difficult if they are moving because they risk having to pay a lot more depending on if they are moving location or upgrading.  

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This is correct.  Inflation serves nobody but specufestors and downgraders.

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I'm making decent amounts off this run and I think it's absurd, because one day my children will want to buy a house.

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I am 100% with you. Unfortunately, self-serving parasitic housing specuvestors cannot see beyond their paper gains, and choose to ignore the highly damaging effects of this Ponzi to new generations, the longer term health of the real NZ economy, and the financial stability of the whole NZ system.

 

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Have you ever thought about buying a house for your kids from those blessed capital gains? I have already bought a townhouse for both of my daughters. The houses are currently rented out and I also bought one rental for my retirement rather then being forced to live of $300/week from government. I call it smart investment and I do not feel like " parasitic housing specuvestor". Could you enlighten me, how do you prepare for your retirement and for good start of your kids, if this is fundamentally wrong by your standards? 

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When I was trying to buy a first home, I got very very annoyed with the people who were investing in first homes to supplement their retirement. Why? Because in doing so, they were screwing up my retirement. It's very, very difficult to have a minimally decent retirement if you are still renting. It's possible to have an OK retirement just on NZ super is you have a freehold home. Having a freehold home, super, and some kind of supplement (not necessarily a rental - there are other options) is enough for a good retirement. 

I was just trying to get to the second step, and people who were on the third step were choosing the one option (out of the many available to them) for supplementing their retirement that seriously impacted my chances of having even a minimally decent retirement. They could have invested in shares, bought commercial property - any number of things. But no, they leveraged their luck in having been able to buy at the right time to make it even harder for me and other people my age and younger to achieve the one thing you basically can't have a good retirement without, and also basically the only way to ensure you have a stable place to raise a family. You're right, being 'forced' to live off $300 a week in retirement sucks. Now imagine being forced to live off that while you are still renting, because you got priced out of the market by older investors. That's why people get so annoyed and start throwing around phrases like 'parasitic housing specuvestors.' 

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Good on you.

The issue is, NZ used to be a fairly egalitarian place, where people from low income backgrounds had a chance.

What you are talking about there sums up everything that is wrong with the mess we are in - it's 'fine if you have well off parents', but not fine if you don't (save for the rare situation where someone from a poor background does very well financially in their life)

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With what capital gains? in order to buy my 3 children a house from the capital gains I would need 3 houses plus the house I live in. That is break even level, also removing any saving I had for my retirement. What I want is my and other peoples children to be able to buy their own houses, now the extra house that I bought as retirement income will will be split amongst my kids, because they are my children and my responsibility, its sadder to people who don't have parents that can do this for them. And then what about my grandchildren? What amount of houses do I need to have to make their lives not be a quagmire of debt.

If house a costs $1,000,000 and I have 1 extra house, each child would need to pay $666,667 to own a home, if it they where $100,000 they would only have to pay $66,666, really high house prices do no benefit me in any real way. Sure they will be able to borrow, on the equity but I don't want my children to be in debt for the rest of their lives.

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Housing is not the only way. I have been working for the last 10 years to get my business to a point where it pays me whether I am working in it or not. Essentially I am largely a redundant part of it now. Once a month I am considered useful, I get asked the hard questions. As long as I keep abreast of any major market changes to protect the longevity I dont really have to work more than a couple of days a month. With a phone and a computer I can do that from anywhere.

The key is having the right people, with skin in the game, who are paid very well. Also limiting the size of it, too many people just turns you into a fulltime counsellor.

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So buy some for them with the equity you have. 

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Both are in their early teens and already saving for their first houses, but yes, I will help them out as well. That this is considered a "logical" move nowadays is telling.

NZ will have its own version of inter-generational mortgages, with parents drawing down equity to help children into houses.

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Need  to watch this - especially as you age - this can cause problems if you need to move into a retirement village or nursing home later in life. Money lent to kids for mortgages can be viewed as a gift and can make your aged care more expensive.

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good on you mate

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Agree If you are speculator/investor/Jacinda Arden/Orr...is Boom and if FHB/Average Kiwi you are screwed and they can do nothing as who can stand against PM who are democratically elected $%#@ and Governor of reserve bank.

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The Housing Ponzi Scheme rolls on.  While we have outdated Monetary Policy Mandates this will continue.  The Employment Mandate should be removed as low Interest rates don't really stimulate Business Investment.

See the chart in this article from this morning in Australia.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/interest-rates/rba-may-be-force… 

Next look at Inflation for the last 5 Years the RBNZ has tried to generate inflation, but for what?  Lets target 0 to 1% inflation and only intervene if inflation is looking negative.

Given that this country since the 90's has mostly embraced free market policies why do the highly intelligent fools at the RBNZ try to manage the economy so tightly.  Lets have free market for interest rates which means 2 year rates would probably be above 5%.  The last Property Frenzy wouldn't have happened.

 

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8

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/pm-jacinda-ardern-on-house-prices-it-just…

It's been almost a full year since the Queen of Empathy declared that Labour just cannot keep doing nothing at the rate they are.  Robertson and Woods were last seen celebrating their unexpected success over a large box of doughnuts. 

Woods was quoted "As minster of housing, I just haven't bothered to mention anything about the housing crisis since March, so it must have resolved itself". Roberston chimed in "we wouldn't want to allow inequality to take hold in how useless we are, this has been a stunning team effort by this entire Labour government".

Meanwhile RBNZ Governor Orr announced a fresh delay to the forming of a committee to discuss the remote possibility of setting a date to convene to hypothetically discuss introducing debt to income restrictions by December 2036 - due to a sudden outbreak of kauri dieback at mighty Tāne Mahuta.  Orr said "there is no urgency, our modellers with a proven track record of competence have indicated house price growth of less than 1 percent in the year to June 2022".  He then added while gesticulating under his $400k Maori artwork "haka hangi maunga taonga waka puku mahi - that's my KPI achieved for this year."

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29

Nice.

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7

It just cannot keep increasing at the rate that it is - Ardern

LOL good one!  

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Yeah ! Thanks Jacinda for more lockdown incompetence, I benefit $276k for Sept just on my Auckland properties !

Anyone noticed that there have only been 2 deaths out of over 1500 cases ? is this really a real threat or has the fear installed by Jacinta made Auckland a sombie town.

I still don't understand why we focus on case numbers surely hospitalisations are the important number ?

Give us a DATE say Nov 1st to get vaxxed, then with mask use and sensible social distancing lets FOR GOD'S SAKE MOVE ON. 

We have a daughter in Southern Portugal living a completely normal life, just been to the UK for the weekend come on NZ this whole situation is being Dramatised to the max, Look at Japan restrictions relaxed case numbers falling like a stone !

If we carry on with the 1pm Punch and Judy show lets include the daily suicide cases, road deaths, flu deaths, deaths through delayed medical care/postponed ops and treatments !

Over 18 months we have had 28 Covid deaths almost all with underlying health issues.

Over 18 months on average we normally have 525 road Deaths, 900 Flu Deaths, 800 Suicides !!

Let's put some perspective to this situation, we have 2 neighbours selling up to get out of this country, they have had enough ! 

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19

Shoreman,

This is the beginning of the end for this Labour government and Ardern.

She doesn't believe in setting targets after failing so badly with building 100,000 houses.

She only believes in control, dishing out "good news", and looking after the gangs.

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Mr Frank - I hope you are right !!

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2

Who is the alternative? Who has the competency to steer NZ out of this mess?

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But if there is no emergency, there is no need for us to watch her daily on the TV.

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8

If there is no emergency, then stop with the controls and lockdowns.

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2

How many died from being held back for medical treatment due to lockdowns?

I bet you the number is higher than COVID deaths in this country, yet no one cares.

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Less, sad fact is we had far less deaths from other causes, (not caused by covid virus) with lockdowns... Tragic isn't it... that it is not being locked'down which is far more deadly.

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0

It used to be called ‘Life’, I believe…

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The deaths are coming down the pipeline, they typically lag infection by 3-6 weeks.

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Deaths = slow vaccine rollout. Ardern and the govt will have blood on their hands.

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Shoreman. I'm sure you realise that the only reason your daughter is able to enjoy that new freedom in Portugal, is because they are the world's MOST vaccinated nation. 85% of the TOTAL (not eligible) population is now fully vaxxed. Thus they now have those options available to them.

For the vast majority of the last 21 months, they have been under SIGNIFICANTLY more stringent restrictions than us. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-stringency-index?tab=chart&country=NZL~PRT

You might just have to suck it up like she did, and do your part for the community until we have our vaccination rates up as well.

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NZ  needs 100 percent eligible population to get there. Maybe that is why the government had never set a target 

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1

You do realise that covid had killed the population of NZ, nearly 5 million. The only reason for the low death rate in NZ is that the health system isn't yet overwhelmed which it would be if there were a lot more cases. 

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Yes good first half, poor second half. We can stop talking about the first half because we are definitely behind the scoreboard now.

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This government have had 18 months to prepare the hospitals for when it does get out.  I would like to see some evidence they have prepared, such as how many more ICU beds?

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4

Sir Ray Avery thinks so too, to the extent he has written an open letter to Jacinda Ardern.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ray-avery_health-covid-healthcare-activi…

 

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The government did nothing because they thought they had Covid under control. What they didn't factor in was the virus mutating and guess what they are still not factoring in the virus mutating or we would be building a dedicated MIQ facility and increasing the hospital services even now. The lightbulb has come on across the Tasman and guess what, they are building a dedicated MIQ. Potentially we could still see another mutation that is far more serious than Delta and we have wasted 2 years already in preparing for it.

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There's already another one, the Lambda.

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And acknowledging the challenges with upgrading ICU, it could also be simply providing more wards for those not in ICU - not everyone who is hospitalised with covid needs ICU.

Arrogance, laziness, incompetence or a combination of all of these things - this government are abysmal. 

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NZ is now going to suffer terribly for its lack of preparedness for a Covid suppression strategy.

Lack of surge capacity for icu beds/staff & ambulances, lack of supply for new drugs, booster shots & at-home oxygen monitors will lead to very poor health/economic outcomes over the next 2 years. 
 
The housing crisis will continue to get worse as inflation takes hold.

Rents will skyrocket as investors sell their rental properties to owner occupiers leaving fewer rental properties in the market.  

Skyrocketing emergency accommodation for displaced renters will be a legacy of this government.

Thousands of stranded kiwis unable to get home will be a legacy of this government.

It would not surprise me if Winston becomes Kingmaker for a change in government in 2 years time.

There is little that this government can now do to prevent the carnage that is about to happen & with it will go any chance of being re-elected in 2023.

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You made $276k, and how much the arderns. 1. Off the Sandringham house 2. Clarke, the tv show 'home sweet home' 3. Terri selling homes in Hamilton. This family is into property up to their necks

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Don't forget the property he bought in Gizzy just before covid hit... an area with some of the highest percentage gains. 

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0

Consider this: 

If the housing market "crashes" by 10%, the annual rate of increase will still be 16%.

Even a large correction is not going to help us get back to pre March 2020.

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5

The instability of the housing market would indicate that a crash has the potential to be much larger than 10%.

But, of course, markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

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There won't be a massive correction if there was ever going to be one. Businesses would close and unemployment would rise. Many small businesses use their homes to borrow.

Govt will come in and stop all that.

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"It would be bad, therefore it's impossible" is not a solid foundation for risk analysis.

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14

What part of my post don't you understand?

If the housing market crashed then 95% of businesses in this country would run out of money as many use their own homes to borrow. 

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You are going to be in for a rude awakening when you find out that the government is equally as useless as controlling house prices on the way down.
 

Not that I don't expect them to try, of course.

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Moral hazard explained in three sentences.

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That line reminds me of the previous one, all the cashed up kiwis are coming back and driving house prices because covid.

I own a business, no debt, no home. I assume Im not completely alone in my predicament.

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I'm very similar.

I'm also old.

Completely screwed.

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NZ economy will thrive till ppl from third world country want to chip in anything to be here.

But who ever come to this land will get eye opener once start finding roof and believe me lot of them will move to aus once they get kiwi citizenship, as NZ is not at all worth to pay mortgage for rest of your life.

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Are you saying that the Government will step in and magic up eligible or willing house buyers/borrowers from thin air to offset a correction?  

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Who needs them from thin air when the govt can give residency and buying potential to tens to hundreds of thousands of people and companies, (especially when considering direct family) in less than a day.

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Not quite. 1.263 * ( 1 - 0.1) = 1.1367, so 14% in round numbers. 

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20% or more is considered a crash. 10% is nothing

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20% is a correction. Not a crash.

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When even your Uber driver is an expert on investing and is giving you property tips, you know its all over. Not that anyone cares that I'm signing out of any further comments on NZ residential property, but its a bit like talking to anti-vaxxers...until it happens to them, they won't believe you. You've been warned ad nauseum of the danger you are in NZ, its on you now.

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Ive noted currently, NZ has many experts, both medical and housing related.

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11

This is what I thought in 2015 as a fresh immigrant. I've been to two different barbers and both were talking about their property investments and that it can only go up. Friends with zero economical insight (or even the slightest interest in the subject) were talking about buying a second and third house after their first because it can only go up.

They were all right. The people in power have not only prevented the imminent crash, but did everything to keep feeding the greed monster.

When you're talking to colleagues and the subject inevitably comes up, reactions are usually "I should've bought two!" instead of "I'm a bit concerned about how this will affect society".

And before anyone comments "you should've listened to your barber", I had zero dollars in my pocket at the time. I kinda wish I was born 10 years earlier.

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It is all about when you were born. Boomers like me have never had big home loans and have enjoyed huge housing inflation. And we are a generally greedy  generation so we bought plenty of shares and houses as we could. Bugger our kids and grand kids.

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Rubbish: Ex Agent is a boomer impersonator. 

(If one believes the rhetoric, boomers aren’t supposed to have compassion or consideration :)  )

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It now cost more to buy a house in Invercargill than it did on the North Shore 15 years ago. House prices on the North Shore have quadrupled since buying my first house there 20 years ago. You wouldn't care less of your salary had done the same but its hardly moved.

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Looking for a newish house in Flaxmere (ground zero of NZ's favourite gang), across the road from an industrial area? Expect to pay $800K+.

Five years ago that money would have got you a similar house in Havelock North (ground zero of Hawkes Bay's finest snobs) and a Ranger.

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A Ranger? You mean a Range Rover 

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I'm sure you jest, but the new build house + Range Rover in Havelock North would be about 10 years ago...

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The only hope for young Kiwis is to leave the country.  Even if you have your own home, is this the sort of economy that you want your children and grandchildren to start a life in?

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Sounds easy but the reality is it won't be. In fact it's often harder overseas with more competition and higher expectations around quals.

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So we will loose our best qualified young Kiwis and be stuck with the least qualified.  A great recipe for success!!!

Re the state of NZ market c.f. the rest of the world.  In Demograpias survey of 92 cities around the world, Auckland is the 89th least affordable and if NZ as a whole were a city it would be the 81st least affordable.  So most of the rest of the world is substantially more affordable than most of NZ.

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And not only is housing more affordable in most of the world, but so is the general cost of living.

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For the best qualified, taxation is a bigger issue than high house prices. With a sufficiently high income housing isn’t really a problem. The problem is seeing your mates in Singapore or Aus paying less tax than you and as such growing their wealth faster making you feel like you need to leave to be able to keep up.

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But tax rates are higher in Australia if you earn over $120000. Ours are half a cent higher for income between 70-120k. I don't think that extra $250 in tax a person on 119k pays if the live in NZ rather than Australia is the thing that's preventing them from 'keeping up.' 

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Out of controlled covid situation, extremely unaffordable housing, high living cost vs low incomes, increasing crime rates, I can't think of reasons why people not leaving here unless if they want to stay with their families. Some parts of the world are starting to open up their borders, they will have better economy and attract more skilled workers as labour markets are pretty tight across the world.

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Yes the government wants property prices to keep rising and therefore they are out of touch and don't care about keeping young people here.

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Yes unless you’ve been to the top schools and Universities in NZ you will just be a battler overseas. 
 

Its well documented that our literacy and numeracy rates are dropping and our spoken English is getting worse and worse. It now seems acceptable to pluck someone off the street and let them present on prime time news in a mumbling incoherent thick and frankly horrible NZ accent. People overseas are not able to understand kiwis at all. 
 

It is more important than ever that your kids go to the best school you can possibly send them to otherwise they will get dumbed down further and further which is becoming more and more normalised. 

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So the QV index vs says we going up, BT avg and median says we going down:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/126583496/auckland-house-prices-fall-during-lockdown

 

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There's still room for upward valuation.

Tier 2 lenders like Squirrels are your friends.

Be quick.

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Difficult to decide to put your house on the market this Spring when you may make another $30k by delaying til Christmas.  

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People in NZ apparently never sell. Others have said here that kiwis just don't sell if house prices go down. Now you're implying they wouldn't sell while prices are going up.

Just wondering, how come no one is selling, yet real estate agencies seem to be the backbone of the economy?

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A recent trend in my Neighborhood over the last couple of years is that families upgrading to a new house often don't sell their current house.  The Local agent says this is in around 40% of transactions.  So much Less Availability.  Most keep the old house as interest rates are low and house prices only go up, so they retain as an investment rather than sell the existing house to make the upgrade work.  This was rarely the case 10 years ago.

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The math still doesn't add up. Are they all moving to new builds?

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Agree the Maths doesn't add up, but I guess they are happy to negatively gear given the entrenched belief that prices only go up.  

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Doesn’t have to be new builds they can rent to HNZ and collect the deductibility. 
 

Also that deductibility is being phased out in quarters over 2 years of course. When it gets to be 100% phased out there will likely be a change of government who have categorically stated they will reverse all these changes. 

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Accidental landlords 

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The relief valve will be huge amounts of young people escaping for Australia and other places when they can. 

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There's nothing stopping young people leaving now is there, other than some moderate inconveniences in the process of moving. 

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I just checked and there are no flights from Auckland to Sydney until December. Maybe you can get their via Singapore or something but I doubt many would bother. NZ is still a safer place to be regarding covid but that will change over the coming months when we become much like everywhere else. 

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Life changing for those own more than one property. Only happens once or twice throughout one’s life time.

But if you only own your own home, it is still  pleasant to look at the numbers on paper. 

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'My precious!' Gollum cried out as he fell into the volcano crater, clutching the latest home valuation report.

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It's not a once or twice in a lifetime thing at all.  Seems to be more or less a continuous thing, with the odd pause in the middle.  House prices haven't dropped meaningfully since 1987.

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Nearly 1.4 mill in Auckland region, what's there in auckland for which 1.4 need to be paid.

Shame labour and Jacinda.

And if labour is gone in next election, the prices will never go back to 2019 level.

The damage cannot be reverted. For all the youngsters and renters better leave this country as it is turned into a joke by current govt.

 

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