Net migration dipped into negative territory in year to October

Property / news

More people left NZ than arrived long term in the year to October

13th Dec 21, 1:41pm by Greg Ninness

Migration numbers continued to track at minimal levels in October, with a net gain of 814 people for the month but a net loss of 1708 for the 12 months to the end of October.

The latest provisional figures from Statistics NZ show that there were 2204 long term arrivals in this country in October and 1390 long term departures, giving a net gain of 814.

Of the 2204 long term arrivals, 1000 were NZ citizens and 1204 were non-NZ citizens, which was partially offset by the the long term departure of 332 NZ citizens and 1058 non-NZ citizens.

That meant a net gain of 668 NZ citizens for the month and a net gain of 146 non-NZ citizens.

On an annual basis there was a net population loss of 1708 people due to migration in the 12 months to October this year, down from a net gain of 55,841 in the year to October 2020 and a net gain of 63,598 in the year to October 2019.

The annual figures also show some major changes in the composition of migrants.

In the 12 months to October this year, 24,703 NZ citizens returned to this country long term, down from 42,031 in the 12 months to October 2020.

That was the lowest annual number of returning NZ citizens in any year to October since Statistics NZ began collating the figures in 2002.

That was partially offset by the the 17,296 NZ citizens who departed long term over the same period, which was almost unchanged from the previous 12 months.

That meant there was a net gain of 7408 NZ citizens in the 12 months to October, which was well down form the net gain of 24,581 NZ citizens in the year to October 2020.

There was an even bigger turnaround in the numbers for non-NZ citizens.

In the 12 months to October this year, 21,604 non-NZ citizens arrived in this country long term, down from 77,124 in the year to October 2020 and 115,407 in the year to October 2019.

The 21,604 long term arrivals was more than offset by 30,720 long term departures, giving a net loss 9116 non-NZ citizens in the 12 months to the end of October.

The interactive chart below shows the monthly and annual migration trends.

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

You can have articles like this delivered directly to your inbox via our free Property Newsletter. We send it out 3-5 times a week with all of our property-related news, including auction results, interest rate movements and market commentary and analysis. To start receiving them, register here (it's free) and when approved you can select any of our free email newsletters.

Net long term migration

Select chart tabs

Source: Statistics NZ

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

18 Comments

by Brock Landers | 13th Dec 21, 1:55pm 1639356958

Net migration is zero and prices up 30% in a year.

It's almost as if the "supply" narrative that keeps getting pushed is a total load of garbage.

Our hopeless politicians are never going to a fix a problem that they refuse to understand.

by Miguel | 13th Dec 21, 2:11pm 1639357917

I think you misunderstand how a supply imbalance contributes. We have built up a shortage of housing over close to a decade. This can be seen in rising rents, high levels of homelessness and overcrowding and rental stress.

We may have had zero net migration, but most estimates show that supply won’t catch up with demand for another year.

Obviously it’s only 1 part of the wider equation, and the actions of the RBNZ have been the biggest driver of price change in the last 18 months, but it’s further amplified by supply/demand imbalances.

by Essen | 13th Dec 21, 3:47pm 1639363629

So why are prices up where there has been no population growth? Both supply and immigration are easy slogans for different sides of the argument to mask the real issues.

by Miguel | 13th Dec 21, 4:29pm 1639366159

I'm not sure what you want me to tell you, other that what I wrote in my previous post. We had no NEW migration, that doesn't mean the impact of the last 7 years migration was suddenly wiped out. We didn't suddenly have 250k people leave the country and eliminate the shortage of housing.

That accumulated shortage of housing amplifies and feeds into price rises.

Why is it that people can't conceive that this is a problem with numerous factors that all contribute to the underlying problem? There is no one factor that is solely responsible for house prices being where they are.

by Brutus Iscariot | 13th Dec 21, 7:40pm 1639377642

The previous 7 years was already baked in though. Everyone knew about it and the people were already here - prices wouldn't have had to leap another 30% to adjust for that.

The fact that the price spike happened in 2020/21 rather than at the time of the high migration, suggests other factors at play, and the only answer is the monetary.

by Essen | 14th Dec 21, 8:34am 1639424054

There have been areas that haven’t had population growth in those 7 years. But prices have still risen dramatically. While immigration is a factor, as is not enough supply, these two factors are weak compared to the true causes of what has driven the housing bubble in NZ, e.g. long term interest rates, housing investment favourability, and FOMO (both FHB and investors).

by Fluffybunny | 14th Dec 21, 7:39am 1639420794

Yes. The only factor that matters is credit availability. And media hype.

by bw | 13th Dec 21, 1:59pm 1639357172

"a net loss of 1708 (consumers) for the 12 months"

The World as we know it has come to an end.

I understand that as a Developing Economy, New Zealand previously needed X amount of productive people to actually come here to make things. But what is it that we need to import people for, today, that we can't teach the already resident population to do?

by kiwiana02 | 13th Dec 21, 2:30pm 1639359046

Brook, the impacts of immigration on house prices are lagged. IMO, that big bump upwards in net migration in early 2020 has been a big factor in subsequent house price rises, along with low interest rates and increased lending to FHB and ‘investors’ (due to the RB dropping its LVR restrictions).

The impacts of that population bump on house prices has largely played out now and the negligible net immigration since April 2020 is likely to show up in house prices going forward. Will be interesting as a lot of new builds are coming onto the market at present. And FHB and ‘ investors’ are not there to the same extent with the reimposition of LVR restrictions and other policies.

by rastus1 | 13th Dec 21, 2:39pm 1639359581

Standby for the launch of another immigration promo in all the undesirable hovels of the world.

Brought to you by NZ bureaucrats - "doing what we want, not what the voters want"

by CWBW | 13th Dec 21, 4:54pm 1639367648

Looks like a beautiful Monday.

Here's something that everyone would delighted to know; immigration and number of work visa has insignificant impact on house prices.

To top that off, they had also insignificant impact on income.

Would love to read more flat earth theories on the commentary section.

by Miguel | 13th Dec 21, 7:39pm 1639377578

Your posts are normally rife with ignorance but this takes the cake. You believe you can compare two data sets in isolation and draw a firm conclusion? No regression analysis? No controlling for other variables such as rates of construction, interest rates, tax changes, income growth?

Embarrassing, even for you.

by CWBW | 13th Dec 21, 8:14pm 1639379663

Love it.

If you claim other variables support a price stability within the immigration data to create a dilluted effect, you are also saying that immigration is good for price stability, ie. higher immigration slows down house price growth.

Obviously you neither understand applied regression nor other basic statistical methods but seems to enjoy throwing mathematical terms to credify your posts.

Notice the R²? I came prepare for your kind.

by Kate | 13th Dec 21, 5:03pm 1639368212

What a scary looking welcome that is.

by Yvil | 13th Dec 21, 5:53pm 1639371221

Not as scary looking as our foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta

by patbell | 13th Dec 21, 8:54pm 1639382072

Good - about time.

by Notgreedykiwi | 13th Dec 21, 10:12pm 1639386747

Sign of things to come.

This place is not liveable anymore. Anyone sensible who doesn't have a house yet or have a small old house should pack asap and leave.

They will do better away then here.

by Fluffybunny | 14th Dec 21, 7:38am 1639420716

Good let's keep this going