The number of NZ citizens returning to this country long term continues to decline

Property / news

Migration flows back in positive territory but the numbers are tiny

21st Jan 22, 12:45pm by Greg Ninness

Population growth from migration turned positive in the three months to November last year although it remains at very low levels.

The latest provisional estimates from Statistics NZ show there was a net gain (long term arrivals minus long term departures) of just 130 people in November 2021, following gains of 717 in October and 378 in September.

That reverses a nine month period of population losses due to migration, although those numbers were also extremely low.

From a practical perspective you could almost say that migration is now having a negligible effect on this country's population, because the net gain of 130 in November last year is insignificant compared to the net gain of 8533 in November 2019 before border restrictions were introduced to combat the Covid pandemic.

In November 2020 there was a net loss of 291 people.

The figures also show that the number of New Zealand citizens arriving back in this country long term is continuing to decline, falling to just 1294 November last year, down from 3297 in November 2020 and 4403 in November 2019.

However the impact of returning NZ citizens on the country's population is reduced by the ongoing outflow of NZ citizens leaving the country, with 834 departing in November last year, leaving a net gain of just 459 NZ citizens for the month.

The big change since the pandemic began is in the number of non-New Zealand citizens migrating to this country.

In November last year 1416 non-NZ citizens arrived long term and 1745 departed, giving a net loss of 329 non-NZ citizens for the month.

That compares with a net gain of 6894 non-NZ citizens in November 2019.

The net flow of non-NZ citizens has been in negative territory in all but one of the 20 months from April 2020 to November 2021.

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87 Comments

by kensinma69 | 21st Jan 22, 1:02pm 1642723334

The shambles at Internal Affairs and MIQ will be the main driving factors here... so hard to get into the country and for those non-residents here already it has been virtually impossible to get permanent visa's issued

by Gen X-ploited | 21st Jan 22, 1:14pm 1642724043

Some kiwis say that Australia is mean to kiwis as they cannot claim benefit over there. They forget that many kiwis now in Oz are barred from entering their own country. The Ozzies are letting these kiwis live and work there happily, providing them healthcare if they need it. NZ has abandoned its own and the Ozzies are taking care of them.

by frazz | 21st Jan 22, 1:42pm 1642725753

Just don't mention that medicare is deducted by Kiwis Aussie Salaries but not available to claim in there health system...?

by MortgageBelt | 21st Jan 22, 1:50pm 1642726201

Kiwis living in Aus do get access to Medicare benefits.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 22, 2:03pm 1642726990

Yep.

I got free PhD fees over there too as a Kiwi.

by MortgageBelt | 21st Jan 22, 4:17pm 1642735038

Likewise. A great deal. Long live the Commonwealth!

by Gen X-ploited | 21st Jan 22, 2:32pm 1642728738

Not lived there have you Frazz?

by Brock Landers | 21st Jan 22, 3:04pm 1642730643

Factually and grammatically incorrect.

by fortunr | 22nd Jan 22, 10:54am 1642802056

Completely wrong.

by Pa1nter | 21st Jan 22, 1:51pm 1642726311

Ones a temporary measure to mitigate covid entering the country, the other is permanently enshrined in law, seemingly forever.

It's fine, Aussie will get some kiwis, then it'll reverse again. Or not.

by Gen X-ploited | 21st Jan 22, 2:34pm 1642728894

For once you are correct, Aussies will get many kiwis and then some kiwis will return.. on 501 visas.

by Pa1nter | 21st Jan 22, 3:12pm 1642731146

The flow started reversing quite a lot in the mid 2010s. Tide comes in, tide comes out.

If you're wanting an Auckland-like experience it stands to reason to move to Aussie vs the regions or CHCH.

If I'm leaving NZ for extended periods going to a slightly different but pretty similar location seems a waste of a trip.

by powerupkiwi | 21st Jan 22, 1:17pm 1642724253

But I was informed that there was a deep reserve of expat kiwis waiting to get in and lock in the property gains. Where are they? Don’t they want this quality of life? Don’t they know how lucky we are? Don’t they know this is GoDZonE!

by RickStrauss | 21st Jan 22, 2:29pm 1642728543

How are they not being attracted en masse by the opportunity to receive lower wages, higher living costs, and unprecedented options to enrich older asset owners?

by MortgageBelt | 21st Jan 22, 5:00pm 1642737633

They are banned and locked out of their own country.

by DoTheMath | 21st Jan 22, 1:17pm 1642724247

Could it be NZ has higher living costs and lower wages than most of the developed world?

by Fluffybunny | 21st Jan 22, 4:08pm 1642734535

That's not very kind. Be kind aotearoa.

by jstockman2 | 21st Jan 22, 1:26pm 1642724807

Public has been softened up for omicron "escaping" MIQ in the near future.

This would give a pretext for allowing the borders to open.

We cant risk overbuilding and letting the RE, property and construction sectors fall flat. Demand must be kept high...

by Gen X-ploited | 21st Jan 22, 1:29pm 1642724946

Queensland tourism is going to boom. Poor old Queenstown.

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-qld-border-restrictions-u…

by J.C. | 21st Jan 22, 1:44pm 1642725886

Phone call with business colleague skiing in Hokkaido y'day. He says that most of the foreigner-owned holiday homes are empty (it's OK, Only wealthy people) and the Park Hyatt is like a ghost town.

by Pa1nter | 21st Jan 22, 1:49pm 1642726196

This doesn't ring true with the narrative that the rest of the world has moved on. So, fake news.

by Gen X-ploited | 21st Jan 22, 2:03pm 1642726980

The hermit kingdom really is in denial. The world has moved on, only NZ is still cowering in fear waiting for the wedding to make everything perfect again.

by Pa1nter | 21st Jan 22, 2:27pm 1642728440

Exactly, borders are open to all and sundry everywhere and NZ has an information embargo a la North Korea.

Actually, wait no, you're talking bollocks still.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 22, 2:06pm 1642727174

Luckily, Japan doesn't rely much on foreign tourism (although it's certainly much more significant than it used to be).

My family over there are effectively living normal lives.

by J.C. | 21st Jan 22, 2:22pm 1642728175

Luckily, Japan doesn't rely much on foreign tourism (although it's certainly much more significant than it used to be).

What do you mean? The size of the tourism industry in Japan is much larger than that of NZ.

by Pa1nter | 21st Jan 22, 3:13pm 1642731226

It's a greater figure in revenue but a lower percentage of their overall economy, I'm guessing.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 22, 6:04pm 1642741494

Foreign tourism is a much smaller contribution to the Japanese economy in % terms, compared to NZ.

by J.C. | 21st Jan 22, 2:21pm 1642728112

This doesn't ring true with the narrative that the rest of the world has moved on. So, fake news.

Not fake news. You cannot fly into Japan for a ski holiday. Actually, the property owners can fly in if they have applied for a residency visa. Property ownership in Japan does allow for residency visas if applied for.

by Pa1nter | 21st Jan 22, 2:25pm 1642728325

I was being sarcarsick. Tourism is still poked everywhere and will be so for some time yet.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 22, 2:04pm 1642727076

I'd love to be in Japan without all the foreign tourists.

When I lived over there in the mid 1990s there were hardly any. You could really soak up the serene beauty of places like Kyoto.

by Pa1nter | 21st Jan 22, 2:23pm 1642728195

Heh, I lived there at the same time. Most of its still the same.

by J.C. | 21st Jan 22, 2:25pm 1642728359

Heh, I lived there at the same time. Most of its still the same.

Nonsense.

by Gen X-ploited | 21st Jan 22, 2:54pm 1642730086

Living in a Japanese car is not the same thing.

by Pa1nter | 21st Jan 22, 3:26pm 1642732009

Herp-te-derpty-tiddlety-dum.

by Pa1nter | 21st Jan 22, 3:17pm 1642731471

Aside from the larger ethnic Chinese population greater Tokyo seemed about the same for me. Only spent 2-3 years there though so maybe you have greater knowledge.

Or are you talking about tourist spots? I'm less familiar there, but most touristy places I've been to in recent visits seemed to be mainly populated with Japanese school groups.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 22, 6:08pm 1642741704

When I was last there 2.5 years ago there were a LOT of Chinese tourists in Kyoto and Tokyo.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 22, 6:06pm 1642741573

Where did you live Pa1nter?

by Pa1nter | 22nd Jan 22, 7:32am 1642789978

Fukuoka and Central Tokyo mainly (around Ochanomizu).

Whenever I went somewhere with more tourists like Kyoto it seemed as packed in the mid 90s as it did a couple years ago. Admittedly back then there were very few Chinese tourists.

by HouseMouse | 22nd Jan 22, 8:54am 1642794889

Nice. Fukuoka sounds like a nice city. I was in Nagoya.

Yeah domestic tourism is huge there. But I recall if you picked your times you could quite easily avoid the madness.

by J.C. | 21st Jan 22, 2:25pm 1642728306

I'd love to be in Japan without all the foreign tourists.

Me too. Flying in and out up to Covid. But even the tourist infested areas were quite interesting. I agree that Kyoto would be horrible with so many tourists. It was getting to a crisis point.

by RickStrauss | 21st Jan 22, 2:31pm 1642728706

On that note, I got the obligatory photo in front of the Wanaka tree the other week without anyone else around. All the bus parks once full of yelling tourists sat empty. A good opportunity to enjoy NZ without the usual clatter.

by Pa1nter | 21st Jan 22, 3:24pm 1642731886

Yeah if you're wanting to do Milford Sound, West Coast, Queenstown etc now's the time, less crowds and some good deals on accommodation and activities.

For me anyway I've tried to make the most of the situation, lockdowns were time I got to spend with my kids I wouldn't have otherwise, and rather than go overseas we've managed to see the country in a way that likely won't be repeatable.

by RickStrauss | 21st Jan 22, 3:28pm 1642732093

Indeed. We did Queenstown and much of the surrounds, and Doubtful Sound again last year. Great times. Still plenty of people about, but just felt better.

I reckon it'll be repeatable in another 10-15 years or so with a general decline in international tourism. Accentuate the positive.

by MortgageBelt | 21st Jan 22, 1:37pm 1642725436

Yes, the quickest way to open up the way for returning kiwis is to spread omicron everywhere in NZ.

by HW2 | 21st Jan 22, 4:42pm 1642736569

The govt knows the safest time is to let it in before autumn chills start. Remember when nz wanted to get rid of otago rabbits but the bureaucrats kept saying no to controlled release of kolisi virus. The farmers brought in the wild virus themselves. Now we are double vaccinated and omicron is relatively harmless it is the perfect time. IMO

by Fluffybunny | 22nd Jan 22, 7:45am 1642790738

The govt has shown zero desire to build anything close to endemic herd immunity.

Like 23 people in hospital. 93% double vac and talking about omicron = red.

We will not open up until Labour is voted out

by Sanz | 21st Jan 22, 1:34pm 1642725248

The worst is yet to come kiwis not returning an an the ones here jumping the ditch Aussie on a big recruitment drive it happens every down turn but this one could last awhile

by powerdownkiwi | 21st Jan 22, 1:35pm 1642725316

positive?

by xingmowang | 21st Jan 22, 1:36pm 1642725401

The country has been in the hand of incompetents for too long.

At some point, this country will need a Lee Kuan Yew to revive.

by powerupkiwi | 21st Jan 22, 1:39pm 1642725550

I’d settle for his son. He’s looking for a new job soon isn’t he.

by Gen X-ploited | 21st Jan 22, 1:39pm 1642725578

Our NZ MSM has its priorities right. What a joke. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/which-wedding-dress-will-jacinda-a…

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 22, 1:41pm 1642725673

Herald as Woman's Weekly?

by RickStrauss | 21st Jan 22, 2:40pm 1642729243

Was interesting to see Luxon doing the Women's Weekly circuit in recent months too. Must be de rigueur now.

by Fluffybunny | 22nd Jan 22, 7:47am 1642790864

MSM media in nz is largely tabloid style

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 22, 1:40pm 1642725604

Why not a Xi?

by powerupkiwi | 21st Jan 22, 2:10pm 1642727438

He PR over substance too

https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/what-if-xi-jinping-just-isnt-that

by RickStrauss | 21st Jan 22, 2:34pm 1642728849

Looks unlikely. Even the clamour from the Right is merely the usual "business experience", which looks increasingly irrelevant to the more strategic, long-term and critical challenges the country is facing. We'll get the equivalent of short term shareholder returns while neglecting the long-term picture. Meanwhile the Left seems to lack the courage to act on even long-term issues that they can at least recognise are there.

by linklater01 | 21st Jan 22, 5:10pm 1642738209

xing,

Just so long as it's not in the hands of the CCP. I'll take an incompetent democracy(sort of) over a brutally repressive regime any day of the week.

And there are cracks appearing in the system with a construction sector in a world of pain.

by Fluffybunny | 22nd Jan 22, 7:54am 1642791283

I'm following the decline closely. They look buggered. My understanding is that most Chinese are not free to invest in things like shares etc? Local property being one of the only investment vehicles available, and its a complete house of cards now unravelling.

Literally building apartments for entire towns of people (just without any people) and people buying them knowing that no one will live in them (maybe in ten years they might) because, you know, house prices are only ever going to go up.

by The Last Realist | 21st Jan 22, 1:52pm 1642726341

To be honest, as long as the housing crisis continues i would be happy/prefer these numbers to go negative. Until we have a surplus of available rental accomodation, we have no room for any additional people. Shut the doors.

by MortgageBelt | 21st Jan 22, 2:09pm 1642727342

Here we go - Omicron in the community now

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300500922/covid19-pal…

by Eschaton | 21st Jan 22, 2:38pm 1642729120

We've all had two years to get fit, healthy and resilient. Hopefully everyone that could took the opportunity, and continue to do so.

by DTRH | 21st Jan 22, 2:46pm 1642729574

If you’re going to get Covid omicron has less harmful effects all the people I know in uk have said from cold to no effect on them and at that point immunity is stronger than boosters.

by Eschaton | 21st Jan 22, 3:02pm 1642730521

Yes, the vast majority of most metabolically healthy people will be just fine.

by Jonny_Utah | 22nd Jan 22, 7:35am 1642790151

Omicron "survivor" here. I wouldn't say it was a walk in the park. It'll certainly terrify the hypochondriacs amongst us once they get it. As well as the work shy, who will make the most of their leave entitlements.

by Macawsley | 21st Jan 22, 4:31pm 1642735862

'As well as the work shy, who will make the most of their leave entitlements.'

lets hope so,

by DTRH | 21st Jan 22, 3:19pm 1642731565

Bitcoin taking a tumble also NZD down

by RickStrauss | 21st Jan 22, 3:25pm 1642731943

NZD down because the OCR is too low and inflation too high?

by CWBW | 21st Jan 22, 3:39pm 1642732745

A good sign some normality is coming back.

BAU.

by rastus1 | 21st Jan 22, 3:48pm 1642733288

No worries. The third world has millions sitting in the departure lounge waiting for their MIQ spot.

by Pa1nter | 21st Jan 22, 4:10pm 1642734635

Or even capital flight from China.

by PocketAces | 21st Jan 22, 4:12pm 1642734760

We do not need more and more people, this country has become a bit of prison for many now, we are horrible to each other.

A good long time with no population growth to speak is a good opportunity to reset this country

by Fluffybunny | 22nd Jan 22, 8:00am 1642791611

I was reading the national party website this week. They actually have opening up immigration as a key promoted policy.

So the choice next election. Continuing to be locked in the country with covid restrictions and inflation vs pulling the pin on huge migration (Chinese) again?

Great.

by PocketAces | 22nd Jan 22, 1:17pm 1642810675

I think the Chinese are gone for a good while. The regime has clamped down on capital flight, and I don't think they are going to be encouraging their citizens to go off spending money in other countries or contemplating moving, especially people from Hong Kong.

by Squishy | 21st Jan 22, 4:21pm 1642735262

I'm enjoying this tension building within society. New Zealand is a particularly poor country for this policy because it has such a large dispora and about a quarter of the countries population where born outside the countries borders. However politically the current government have married zero covid even as that strategy becomes less and less feasible.

Something will have to give.

by MortgageBelt | 21st Jan 22, 4:21pm 1642735272

Let the Kiwis return to their own country!

There must be a legal redress to this Government attacking their own citizens in this way.

by kiwikeith | 24th Jan 22, 2:57pm 1642989454

The expat kiwis left NZ knowing full well that the borders could close at some time in the future. Time they got on with their life, wherever they are - rather than blaming others for their misadventure.

by Wrong John | 21st Jan 22, 9:53pm 1642755180

Immigration heaven. God bless New Zealand.

by Contrarian | 21st Jan 22, 10:10pm 1642756214

The Kiwis wanting to settle back in New Zealand have some tax issues to sort out, which I understand is a big disincentive to settle here. Like the overseas assets in shares, etc. May be the Government needs to rethink some of these to encourage more Kiwis to come back and settle here ?

by MLSmith1 | 22nd Jan 22, 9:16am 1642796194

Tax law gives you a number of years to sort out your affairs before treating you as nz tax resident. It’s manageable

by kiwikeith | 24th Jan 22, 1:39pm 1642984785

You have four years where you do not need to declare your overseas income. After that the NZ govt will tax you on a hypothetical icome - enough to persuade you to leave again.

by Property_Wizard | 22nd Jan 22, 8:19am 1642792781

I am in the US now and I would only move back to Ardenistarn out of necessity (assuming I even get a MIQ spot). Why move to this country in it's current state? Covid or not, three years ago if you told people that NZ citizens could not enter the country you'd be laughed at. The clowns in charge spit on the Bill of Rights Act. The world has moved on, and NZ and Aussie are living in the stone ages, its a disgrace!

by Pa1nter | 22nd Jan 22, 9:24am 1642796698

Three years ago if you'd have said the world would get upended by a pandemic you'd be laughed at in general.

I wonder if the bill of rights weighs the rights of people to live in safely in NZ against the rights of people to travel to NZ irrespective of its impact on the first group of people.

Muh freedums

by Property_Wizard | 22nd Jan 22, 9:36am 1642797416

Yeah that's fine and obviously a tragedy, but what is left to gain by holding Omicron back and staying locked up? Everyone in charge say's it is inevitable that it will be everywhere, yet it the status quo, lock it down! I had it last week, and guess what, its nothing worse than a cold. The media has a monopoly on everyday Kiwi's thoughts.

by Pa1nter | 22nd Jan 22, 2:04pm 1642813497

Omicron has only been a thing for 6 weeks or so, aye? I think if anyone half sensible had the opportunity to buy time and assess when new variants emerged, they'd seize it.

At the onset of the outbreak in 2020, countries that played down the seriousness paid fairly dearly, while more serious approaches kept deaths low while treatments and vaccines were developed.

Likewise with Omicron, by all accounts it's less severe, but we could probably handle it better than Australia has now we know more than they did, time will tell. Being less diligent doesn't seem to have paid off so far, here's hoping the endemic theory plays out like expected.

by christlucas | 22nd Jan 22, 5:24pm 1642825475

Aussie and NZ are now totalitarian countries. Why would you come back. Just applied for a British passport won't be staying here much longer, as long as I am still allowed to leave that is.

by Pa1nter | 22nd Jan 22, 6:16pm 1642828615

Anyone who wants to leave can do so pretty easily.

I wonder how popular the UK is going to be for kiwi expats going forward now travel to Europe isn't as free and easy as it used to be due to Brexit.