Huge jump in residence visa approvals in January

Property / news

Almost 11,000 residence visas were approved in January

23rd Feb 22, 9:29am by Greg Ninness

There was a huge increase in the number of residence visas approved last month.

The latest figures from the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) show that 10,818 residence visas were approved in January, which is believed to be the highest number ever approved in a single month.

The average number of residence visas approved in 2021 was 2677 per month (the graph below shows the monthly trend since the beginning of 2019).

The vast majority (94%) of the residence visas issued were in the business/skilled worker category.

It's likely that many were visa renewals for people already in the country but the majority were likely to have been issued as part of the 2021 Resident Visa Scheme which the Government introduced last year.

Under that scheme, about 165,000 migrant workers who were already in the country, many of then for several years, became eligible for residency.

Applications for residency under the new scheme opened on December 1 last year and runs until July 31 this year and almost 29,000 migrants took advantage of the scheme and applied for residency in December alone.

Unfortunately MBIE is no longer publishing data showing the visa status of applicants at the time they applied for a visa, making it difficult to ascertain exactly who is applying for the visas being approved.

However, the national migrant population estimates show that the number of people in this country on work visas declined by 4809 in January while the number of residence visas increased by 4143.

That suggests that possibly about half of the residence visas issued in January were issued under the 2021 Residence Visa Scheme.

At the end of January there were 170,733 people in this country on work visas, down from the peak of almost 221,000 in March 2020.

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55 Comments

by AJ123 | 23rd Feb 22, 9:50am 1645563018

Labour showing it's true color.

Open the doors and let the property price reach new highs.

by Greg Ninness | 23rd Feb 22, 10:07am 1645564027

It's not a case of opening the doors to new migrants because the visas have been given to people who have already been here for several years, so it has only a very limited impact on population numbers and demand for housing.

by Timmyboy | 23rd Feb 22, 10:40am 1645566057

It's a matter of keeping the door open to those people that have already had a huge impact on population numbers and demand for housing.

by chebbo | 23rd Feb 22, 10:42am 1645566153

Demand in a societal sense is not the same as demand in a financial sense. More people doesn't necessarily equate to higher house prices.

by Timmyboy | 23rd Feb 22, 11:07am 1645567678

Look at all the bank advertising clearly directed at immigrants. They are all encouraged to do what the rest of us have been doing.....signing up to a mega mortgage to buy a sh*tbox on what used to be an orchard or farm on the outskirts.

Or renting one from a hugely indebted investor.

by Carlos67 | 23rd Feb 22, 10:37am 1645565826

Wrong it does have an impact because these people are now less likely to leave or be forced to leave. You can basically gain population by giving 165,000 people the right to live here permanently, that more than fills in the hole from 2 years of Covid with no perceived immigration gain by the public. Brilliant move by Labour its immigration by stealth.

by company of heroes | 23rd Feb 22, 11:38am 1645569509

Wrong it does have an impact because these people are now less likely to leave or be forced to leave.

Not too sure about that, I know some people they only stayed here just to get residence visa so they can have options of where they can live in future. As soon as they got the visa, they left New Zealand.

by wrightoff | 23rd Feb 22, 1:28pm 1645576090

Your comment is technically wrong; they can't leave immediately or their visa will expire.

Effectively there are 3 types of Visa's:

1. Work Visa (Can live/work in New Zealand while visa is valid but cannot own property)

2. Resident Grade Visa (Can live/work in New Zealand while visa is valid and can own property - visa has travel conditions which if the holder doesn't abide by the visa expires).

3. Permanent Residence Visa (Can live/work in New Zealand, can buy property, and visa does not expire).

You have to hold a residence grade visa for 2 years I think before you are eligible for permanent residence; you also have to show commitment to New Zealand which means a minimum amount of time in New Zealand per year.

by nktokyo | 23rd Feb 22, 11:58am 1645570711

So many kiwis are lining up for the jobs they do. Not.

by singautim | 23rd Feb 22, 12:10pm 1645571442

For the low-paid jobs is a matter of Wages and Training. So is it OK to encourage a Kiwi underclass? For the jobs requiring both high skill and experience with insufficient Kiwis - that is what immigration is supposed to fix not fast food delivery.

by Advisor | 23rd Feb 22, 12:52pm 1645573939

Drastically reducing unskilled migration numbers will force businesses in low-value sectors to invest in capital or pay more to attract and retain staff. Those unable to do so will be forced to shut down allowing the surviving ones to pick up the slack in supply, improve margins through economies of scale, and be in a better position to invest and pay more.

by RickStrauss | 24th Feb 22, 10:30am 1645651842

Indeed...we don't have a labour shortage, we have a wage shortage.

by Clementé | 23rd Feb 22, 1:07pm 1645574875

I do love a not joke. Brilliant.

by ikimpaul | 23rd Feb 22, 12:16pm 1645571771

Actually your wrong - population calculations in New Zealand include temporary migrants- which is what these people are. The people physically/ permanently in NZ (excluding visitors) is how population is calculated. It does not include NZ citizens or residents based overseas (of which there is approximately 1 million).

We have not suddenly gained 12000 people in NZ in Jan by giving them a residency visa. The only thing that changed was the number of people who have residency visas increased by 12 000 and the number of people on temporary visas decreased. If 1/2 of those given their residency visas in Jan become a NZ citizen in 5 years time then the number of NZ citizens increases by 6000 and the number of people on residency visas decreases by 6000.

Our population only increases if the government then decides to maintain the number of temporary visas at 165 000 and now admits a further 12000 people to NZ- then the population would grow by 12000 people or if some of those 1 million citizens decide to come back and live in NZ.

by Small Kev | 23rd Feb 22, 10:42am 1645566129

“Labour showing it's true color.

Open the doors and let the property price reach new highs.”

This country survives on immigration, the door is not even fully opened yet.

The very wealthy and poor will enter and many in the middle will exit.

by nktokyo | 23rd Feb 22, 11:58am 1645570680

Can we please have a downvote button?

by Wrong John | 23rd Feb 22, 9:56am 1645563404

It doesn't matter what colour you are these days - it's let the people come. Six million by 2030?

by Noncents | 23rd Feb 22, 10:13am 1645564391

I think we are closer to that 6million that many people realise. The vaccine rollout suggests the team of 5m is closer to 5.5m

Census data is ultimately reliant on the forms being completed truthfully (or at all, in many cases)

by ikimpaul | 23rd Feb 22, 12:18pm 1645571927

Why do people insist on making claims that are easily fact checked- its frustrating for those of us who actually believe in the truth and real news.

Stats NZ has a population counter and it shows us at 5 127 200 as of 2 minutes ago- nowhere near your 5.5 million

https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/population-of-nz

by refactornz | 23rd Feb 22, 12:39pm 1645573158

The page you referred to is titled, "Estimated population of NZ", and the word "estimate" is scattered all over the page. It's based on the 2018 census with some adjustments and extrapolations.

by Noncents | 23rd Feb 22, 1:16pm 1645575411

You are fact checking using information supplied by organisation with well publicised and documented issues around its data collection and modelling. Who in turn based this number on the most poorly run (and lowest turnout) census in history, that in itself is 3 years old, and was "adjusted" by "modelling" from a census 10 years earlier (due to the Chch earthquake causing us to miss one).

So forgive me if I don't give it much weighting.

As I said, my numbers are based on vaccine data supplied by MoH, as well as information provided by the PM and DoH.

We have administered 4.017m first doses to 12+. This is ~95% of the eligible population of 4.2m (Source MoH)

However we know this 4.2m number is significantly lower than the real number. This was confirmed by Dr Bloomfield, MoH, and the PM as it is based only on people that have accessed the NZ Health Service in the past 12 months. Estimates are that it could be 10%-15% below the real/actual number.

Assuming 10%. Then we know the actual population of 12+ is closer to 4.62m.

We also know the <12 number (800k) is also low as this was based on 5m less 4.2m, as opposed to any more in depth calculations. So safe to assume 10% again. Which gives us 880k.

880k + 4.62m = 5.5m

by nigelh | 23rd Feb 22, 10:08am 1645564119

"Unfortunately MBIE is no longer publishing data showing the visa status of applicants at the time they applied for a visa, making it difficult to ascertain exactly who is applying for the visas being approved."

This can only be at a Labour Minister's directive or gross Ministerial incompetency by not asking the relevant questions. If its left to MBIE to decide then we have some form of deep state operating.

by Slapheid | 23rd Feb 22, 10:18am 1645564724

Let's do this!!!!

by singautim | 23rd Feb 22, 10:45am 1645566338

""The vast majority (94%) of the residence visas issued were in the business/skilled worker category."" Hopefully they will be doctors, top level nurses and other medical experts. Unfortunately INZ define 'skilled' in a different way to popular usage.

by Timmyboy | 23rd Feb 22, 11:16am 1645568172

Skilled = Able to perform an unpopular and repetitive task at minimum/ living wage.

by Advisor | 23rd Feb 22, 11:44am 1645569862

Someone elsewhere in the world looking at our immigration stats, particularly the number of cooks we bring in on "skilled" visas year after year must be expecting NZ to have the highest concentration of Michelin star restaurants in the world.

by RickStrauss | 24th Feb 22, 10:31am 1645651899

"Won't ask for breaks or days off and won't object to wages being docked for 'training' or 'expenses'."

by CourtJester | 23rd Feb 22, 11:20am 1645568431

"Chefs" and "retail managers", most likely

by Oasis | 23rd Feb 22, 12:41pm 1645573265

This is an one-dimensional way of looking at immigration imho. My parents are immigrants, possibly what you call low-skilled but they ran their own businesses. Of their four offsprings (all minors when they moved here), three of them currently work as fairly high-level medical professionals and one is doing science research. None of them has left NZ yet, and are all contributing to the NZ society in their own chosen fields. The offsprings’ offsprings are growing up here as kiwis. And this isn’t just our story. I have seen many similar cases around me. I think it’s dangerous to paint all immigrants with the same brush, when the impact can be generational.

by sparrow | 23rd Feb 22, 12:51pm 1645573861

It's not about the individual migrants, who are generally hard-working and motivated people.

It's about growing the population at a rate that doesn't cause housing and infrastructure shortages and doesn't suppress wages for the people already here.

It would also be nice if population growth from migration didn't increase our carbon emissions or impact on the environment, but NZ politicians don't like to consider those aspects.

by singautim | 23rd Feb 22, 2:57pm 1645581456

You think I'm being one-dimensional? In fact my experience is similar to yours: I arrived 20 years ago as a skilled computer programmer, for various reasons related to being lucky enough to have good savings I worked part time for 11 years and then retired. So my considerable skills didn't greatly benefit my fellow Kiwis. With me came my family of five and they are a mixed bunch but generally hard working and tax paying (and I now have 3 Kiwi born grandchildren). The world is full of similar families and those from countries without a welfare state and with serious ecological problems and over-crowding would love to be here. There has to be some rules - nowhere has open borders. The argument is not about how grateful, pleasant and successful immigrants are it is about how many and which ones. That is never discussed by politicians. Auckland was nicer when it was smaller - if they had had a sane immigration policy 20 years ago maybe I wouldn't have got in. My guess is sane would be about 50% of actual. Policy to be discussed and debated by you, I and all citizens but not left to inept businesses desperate for naive, cowed employees and badly funded tertiary education providers.

by Anon_82 | 23rd Feb 22, 10:59am 1645567156

There's very likely that many again to come in Feb, and the numbers will shoot up a lot higher in April/May and for the remainder of the year.

The first round of 2021 fast track visas were only open to those with residence applications already in progress on 29th September (approx 30k), there's another 135k~ eligible to apply from the 1st March onwards. The requirements/criteria to qualify are relatively low in terms of if you've been here for 3 years or earn over median wage then barring a change in helath/character requirements it's likely you will be approved as you met the criteria on your original application.

And this does have an impact on property - non-residents can't get mortgages unless your partner is a resident or citizen. And much though eveyone on here likes to think these are all low skilled people, there's a large cohort of tech/software workers and the like on good wages who will now be eligible for mortgages that were not previously, and are well settled in NZ already.

Majority of those are currently tied to a single employer also and once approved will be free to move jobs as they like, so wage pressure will also kick in as employers who had people tied to them suddenly have to fight to keep them.

by singautim | 23rd Feb 22, 12:12pm 1645571525

Certainly not ALL immigrants are low-skilled. Nobody actually believes that. Most of us have met very highly skilled immigrants (one is my wife's stepson who is a consultant electrical engineer). Most of us have also met pump attendants, bottle shop managers, Uber drivers, etc who if they are skilled certainly are not using their skills. NZ needs more highly skilled immigrants not fewer - but first we need to agree what is 'skilled'.

by Timmyboy | 23rd Feb 22, 11:19am 1645568355

But wont that act to reduce the wages of the skilled workers that are already here?

by singautim | 23rd Feb 22, 12:16pm 1645571776

Yes. My wife's stepson earns well over $100k living in the South Island. He is well worth it and probably stopped a Kiwi engineer earning $200k for the same job. Now retired, I used to be a computer programmer and I was very happy to end my career immigrating to NZ where I took a far lower salary. There are many very good Kiwi computer professionals all over the world earning far more than they would here.

by refactornz | 23rd Feb 22, 12:44pm 1645573458

But wont that act to reduce the wages of the skilled workers that are already here?

Not if projects don't go ahead due to a lack of skilled workers.

by singautim | 23rd Feb 22, 2:59pm 1645581593

How many of those projects relate to population growth? Roads, sewers, hospitals, schools, light railway, etc.

by refactornz | 23rd Feb 22, 4:46pm 1645587987

That misses the point of my comment, which is that it doesn't necessarily affect the wages of skilled workers who are already here.

Almost every company I've worked for has had slower growth than they'd wanted due to struggling to find enough skilled workers. Software industry. These are businesses that improve productivity within NZ and/or export products and services abroad.

by singautim | 23rd Feb 22, 10:06pm 1645607176

Too many really good Kiwi computer programmers are working overseas.

by Notgreedykiwi | 23rd Feb 22, 11:06am 1645567598

So can we get a detailed report on what all these 11k new residents do? Are they highly skilled or what industry do they work in?

How many are on a wage which will benefit our economy?

Will most of these entries result in a middle aged kiwi made redundant by a profit making corporate and new immigrant hired on a low salary?

Everything this government has done under urgency or other filmsy excuse has harmed the local population one way or the other. But sheeple people do not understand that and are just happy that we hid from the virus. But wake up virus is here now. So what benefit did you get?

by singautim | 23rd Feb 22, 11:17am 1645568240

I expect Anon-82 has answered that. These 11,000 will be generally above median wage. Whether that criteria is rechecked before their resident's visa becomes a permanent resident's visa I don't know. Nothing is published about immigrants and their incomes - the more visible immigrants are those serving us fast food and driving Uber - the immigrants that advance NZ economically are often less visible working in offices.

by CourtJester | 23rd Feb 22, 11:23am 1645568630

Their wage can be anything on paper as long as someone pays the income tax...

Some "businesses" hire and employ these new immigrants on high wages, but in reality the employee has to "pay back" a huge chunk of that money to the employer, on top of working 12-16 hours instead of 8.

by Advisor | 23rd Feb 22, 11:58am 1645570683

That's right. The only way around this issue (a bit extreme) would be to prevent businesses operating in low-value sectors from hiring overseas workers altogether.

The policymakers at INZ are either dumb or lazy to believe that takeaway, cafes and dairy stores are doing something so specialised that they can't source "skills" locally.

by Anon_82 | 23rd Feb 22, 12:19pm 1645571945

Not true, the testing of wages is very hard to swerve. And in order to have been here since immigration basically shut down 2 years ago you almost had to be on a 36 month essential skills visa, and to get 36 instead of 12 months you already had to be above median wage - fixed at $56k~ / $27p/hour~ last time they reviewed that limit. And you need an employer who's prepared to lie to immigration for you in the case you suggest, and I can say for sure employers dependent on migrant labour are very wary of anything illegal.

Obviously without hard data it's educated guesswork but I would be fairly confident that construction and tech workers far out number hospitality and retail workers in this 165k people. As someone who works in the tech sector I deal with very few NZ born kiwis in an average week, those that we do tend to be more senior people who have worked overseas then returned, the mid skilled level is a hugely skewed to essential skills visa overseas people.

Just to clarify I don't have an opinion either way on the rights and wrongs on this topic, but the "they're all bottle shop and low skilled hospo workers" narrative in these comments sections is wildly inaccurate.

by singautim | 23rd Feb 22, 12:33pm 1645572796

You describe roughly what I went through 20 years ago. You have to admit some immigrants seem of decidedly dubious advantage to NZ. Hopefully a very small minority but they exist and we read about them every week. They are the ones that give the majority of hard working intelligent immigrants an undeserved poor reputation. The solutions are easy and implemented in other countries:

1. More labour inspectors (INZ try to avoid any identification of the mistakes they make)

2. No more than 50% immigrant in any employment type. That would mean continual increase in wages and work conditions until 50% of elderly caregivers were Kiwis not Filipino.

3. Matching IRD returns with resident Visa approvals. I queried this when two immigrants were prosecuted for importing drugs - they had been in NZ for 9 years and never made an IRD return. I was told that it was against NZ privacy rules. It isn't in Australia. It would work better if permanent residency took more than 2 years.

BTW I agree with you about this group of approvals - my remarks are about the system in general. Hopefully the govt have had 2 years to sort out the system so NZ has a planned & controlled population growth of talented people bringing enthusiasm to become Kiwis.

by CourtJester | 23rd Feb 22, 12:36pm 1645573008

And you need an employer who's prepared to lie to immigration for you in the case you suggest, and I can say for sure employers dependent on migrant labour are very wary of anything illegal.

Umm... lying to immigration is a thing you know. Happened many times in the past several years, they were in the news. Usually Indian restaurants and liquor shops where the main business was actually importing people this way.

I'm also in tech and hiring kiwis for certain roles seems impossible, as there are no candidates. The problem is, 80% of the immigrant candidates who claim to have the relevant experience and/or education are not even close. I'm an immigrant myself so I'm not against immigration in general, but there's obviously a problem with the current system if despite the huge number of people imported, you still struggle to find the kind of people you need. Just look at the number of senior developer jobs on seek - these positions are very difficult to fill.

My guess is that rapidly increasing living costs have made NZ less attractive to people who have other options (Australia, US, EU). So we get more of those who only move here because the bar is lower.

by Advisor | 23rd Feb 22, 1:02pm 1645574563

100% with you on the lack of suitable candidates in tech/data, both local and immigrants. Moreover, I am utterly disappointed with most tertiary institutions in NZ for handing out shiny qualifications to local and international graduates that don't translate into real skills.

I don't get how a transcript from an NZ university says some scored well on their master's dissertation when the same person struggles to write a simple email in plain English to their client on the job.

by RickStrauss | 24th Feb 22, 10:33am 1645652004

Back in the old days people weren't required to take on significant debt and spend years on their own training before companies took them and trained them for work. That prevalent expectation for the tertiary sector to be providing job training is part of the problem too.

by Crazy Horse | 23rd Feb 22, 11:12am 1645567926

....and how many are now eyeing up Aussie ?

by northman46 | 23rd Feb 22, 11:15am 1645568118

They wouldn't have the right to live or work in Australia until citizen, which would be 5 years presence in NZ after becoming resident.

by 7jai | 23rd Feb 22, 12:56pm 1645574195

11,000 new entrants potentially ready to buy a home... As expected. Wait until we open borders and flood gates open with migrants. With such chaos happening in the so many parts of the world, everyone is looking for an escape to a safe country. Some NZ people may deny this, but at the end of the day, they haven't left NZ either even with the complaining. No surprise we are expecting another interesting year in house prices.

-7

by CourtJester | 23rd Feb 22, 1:17pm 1645575453

11,000 new entrants potentially ready to buy a home

LOL. Potentially ready, yeah, just need another $200k for the deposit and ready to go!

by Carlos67 | 23rd Feb 22, 1:58pm 1645577888

Yeah its obviously trendy to talk about leaving NZ for greener pastures but in most cases it will not happen. Personally I blame social media these days for a whole host of problems, its full of peoples narcissistic tendencies to promote their lives as better than it is, raising expectation well above what is normal for everyone.

by nktokyo | 23rd Feb 22, 1:00pm 1645574421

Good, when you live and work longterm in a country you should have the right to put down roots and have financial stability. We need highly skilled professionals. They won't come here if it's just to rent for a few years and then clear off thank you very much.

by CWBW | 23rd Feb 22, 1:18pm 1645575498

A good return to mean.

This country needs more people.