ANZ's economists have increased the amount by which they think the Reserve Bank will raise interest rates, and consequently, the amount by which they think house prices will fall.
In their latest Property Focus report, ANZ's economists say they now expect the Reserve Bank to increase the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.0% by the end of the year, up from their previous expectation of it hitting 3.5%.
And that means higher mortgage rates, which in turn means houses are likely to fall further than they previously thought.
They are now forecasting a 15% fall in houses prices from their peaks of late last year, compared to their previous expectations of a 12% fall.
The report says that the Consumer Price Index figures for the second quarter of this year suggest inflation may be around for longer than previously expected.
And with the labour market already tight and getting tighter, this will keep the pressure on the Reserve Bank to keep raising rates.
"The RBNZ has plenty of work to do in order to prevent a damaging wage-price spiral," the report says.
The report notes that the stock of homes for sale is at a six year high and getting higher, while the supply of new homes being built is still at respectable levels in spite of supply problems., while population growth remains low due to a lack of migrants.
"All up, the suite of housing indicators we monitor is still very much on an easing trajectory, with no “floor” to speak of yet in sight," the report says.
"And it’s not just the data telling us this; anecdotes from the coal face currently seem unified in suggesting the housing market is firmly in retreat."
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92 Comments
Hahahaha
We should predict how many times bank economists will change their predictions within 6 months.
Three times? Four times?
Also I thought their last prediction was 13%.
It would be stupid not to learn as new data comes along and revise one's prediction.
Yeah, nah.
Their original forecasts were poor ones. That's where their problems started.
15% is still way too low, they don't learn.
... pretty much everyone here who's not a property spruiker correctly forecast that their forecasts were badly out of whack , and would require further adjustment down ...
And down ... I'm forecasting they'll be re-revising their new forecasts down also ... in the not to distant future ...
I seem to recall certain commentators with a -5% base case not that long ago.
Me? Minus 5-10% for 2022. 15-20% decline from peak to trough overall.
Looks like both will be a bit out, but nowhere near as bad as ANZ.
I think that is a bit harsh, I think it's fine to change your prediction if circumstances change, it's just they are slow to read the signs or be allowed to talk about them
by Fritz | 6th Feb 21, 5:01pm
I agree.
For that reason I think it is unlikely that the ocr will be higher than 1% by end of 2022.
In fact I predict the ocr will be negative by end of 2022, as I think a financial crisis will arrive by then.
Wow, this is an interesting comment. I cannot help but wonder
a) are the Central Banks really that silly that they cannot see their "inflation-fighting" is whacking economies; or
b) are they doing this deliberately as part of a greater plan?
In case a), maybe they even can see that, but they will simply have to give up at some point and let inflation run its course (inevitable anyway after years of money printing) - if and when they will give up, this could be a positive turning point for the entire economy.
Yep, I was very wrong on that, that is for sure (well 'probably' wrong, theoretically I could still be right, haha - but highly unlikely)
Firstly, I had assumed incorrectly that inflation would have subsided quite a lot by now. I was wrong. No doubt the unexpected war had some impact.
Secondly, I thought the RBNZ would conspire to protect the housing bubble at all costs - after all, it seems that's always been a big part of their unwritten mandate.
Thirdly, I maintain that pushing the OCR higher and higher is the wrong call, and I thought that the RBNZ would know that. I think they should stop, and at least pause for now. But they won't, of course.
But here's the thing - I don't chop and change every month. I also admit to my errors - unlike the economists. Have you ever heard Tony Alexander admit how wrong he was with his clanger of a prediction of +5% gain in house prices in 2022?
Sure, adjusting forecasts over time is the right thing to do. But if you do it too often I really think it stretches credibility.
I put my hand up 2-3 months ago and said I was wrong. And said I think the OCR will almost certainly go to 3+%. I have always maintained, and still maintain, that the OCR will be cut from around mid 2023 (or a touch earlier). That's a minority view, and maybe I will be wrong on that too.
But here's the other thing - I find it really really hard to reconcile ANZ's views on the OCR with their views on house prices. They were saying the OCR would go to 3.5% months ago, even when their house price forecast was for only -3% or -7%. It doesn't stack up. My view has always been, and I've said this many times, that you take the OCR to at least 3.5% and you will see house prices falling somewhere between 20-30%. That's a lot different to falls of 3 or 7%.
The other thing is, I'm an armchair economist. The ANZ are a team of professional economists, with huge resources, access to data, surveys etc.
Sorry for the rant.
Dude, I've said before I respect you because you're willing to change your predictions based on changing circumstances. Was just suggesting that this was sign of intelligence and humility and shouldn't be discouraged ...
They’re more in the game of market commentary than forecasting
Hi Independent_Observer,
You ought to know that market monitoring/commentary is inextricably linked to market forecasting.
All competent forecasters know that the reliability/validity of their forecasts will be seriously compromised if monitoring is not systematic.
TTP
"All competent forecasters know that the reliability/validity of their forecasts will be seriously compromised if monitoring is not systematic".
Yes it is important Tim to have information monitored .
https://www.nzpif.org.nz/news/view/55367
But is Tim wrong? Nope.
We can now look back and apply some hindsight from January to now.
Of the competent market commentators who do you think has been most accurate in their reliability/validity?
I think Brad Olsen has been pretty good, while Tony Alexander hasn't really done much for his reputation. How about you TTP?
Taleb's turkey comes to mind every time I read this line of thinking.
And your post has 3 likes again...which seems to be a common theme (i.e. from your 3 accounts?)
And they are always very quick likes.
I think they’ll revise another 4 times…. -19% in Aug, -24% in Sept, -28% in Oct and -34% in Dec. Of course the actual peak to trough, which won’t happen till mid 23 at earliest, will be at least -35% which only removes 2020-21 crazy artificial spike
The bull walks up the stairs, and the bear falls out the window.... "no “floor” to speak of yet in sight"
"And it’s not just the data telling us this; anecdotes from the coal face currently seem unified in suggesting the housing market is firmly in retreat."
Even the Vested Interest are starting to surrender to -30% Crash in Home Prices by December.
I will be shocked if we don't hit - 30%. Maybe not by December, but by mid next year or so. Whether it falls further depends on how quickly the RB flip and start cutting.
Yes, I hope they will start cutting. Spoke to a real estate agent today, he said, many vendors are selling at capital loss these days. This means, many first home buyers will be under water but cannot sell due to negative equity. Negative equity means that any further losses are now on the banks. Banks making losses means a financial crisis is looming.
There is probably a certain level of losses that banks can stomach. However, quick relief action would now be required from the Reserve Bank because once the expectation of falling house prices becomes ingrained in society, there will be a crash (as buyers will retreat from the market due to expected further declines). Once we have a housing crash, a financial crisis in New Zealand is almost guaranteed, because our banks' balance sheets are heavily laden with property lending (there is not much industry here compared to USA, Germany, etc.). Unlike the crises from 2013 onwards in Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Spain, we are not connected to the EU so nobody can bail us out. It would be quite a nightmare, savers may lose their savings, the entire economy may go bust.
The window of opportunity for the Central Bank to counteract these current forces is right now, and rapidly closing. I hope they come to their senses soon, but somehow I doubt it.
Actually substantial house prices falls, while very painful, are essential for getting the NZ economy back on sound footing where younger generations can afford to stay in the country and enjoy a reasonable standard of living, investment is directed more productively, and the country moves forward more sustainably. Banks are reasonably well capitalised and should survive, no government guarantee of banks will be required as they are foreign owned, so unlike Ireland bankruptcy of banks is unlikely to lead to bankruptcy of the state and IMF.
RBNZ needs to hold its nerve because inflation is the greatest evil, and a house price crash (actually just a correction to something closer to long term average) is a healthy thing long term
Rates were cut during every other major house price crash that you'd care to mention (USA, Japan, Spain, Ireland, etc).
The rate cuts did not stop house prices falling in any of those countries. Are rate cuts likely to stop house price falls in NZ?
House price crashes from before didn’t have high inflation involved so they could lower rates but as you have pointed out lowering rates did not stop crash anyway. This housing market price crash is looking like super crash one of worst on record.
I suspect we are starting to approach 25-30% falls in Wellington. I'm following the market closely in the southern suburbs (Island Bay, Lyall Bay, etc). I've gotten sales prices from agents on about half a dozen houses sold in last couple weeks. They range from 15% to 35% or so falls from peak (and peak Homes estimates). Here's one of the bigger ones which has been made public: https://homes.co.nz/address/wellington/lyall-bay/134-onepu-road/0rMqn
Hard to predict the future, but it's also hard to think of reasons that Wellington will be an outlier when all is said and done.
I think Wellington will fare worse than Auckland. It’s housing market has always been less resilient. I recall a pretty bad dip in the early 2000’s.
It’s fascinating to watch from the sidelines. The real question people should be asking is this: should I pay $975k for a salt rusted old home built on sand?
RB won't cut, because:
- Fed and other CB's keep raising rates
- Employment figures are still strong (on paper at least)
#1 will force RB to defend the currency. #2 will give RB enough cover to keep raising rates.
What the bank economists are not saying is they expect their YOY profits to keep trending up....lol
On what basis do you think bank profits keep trending up? Do you understand what is currently happening in the real estate market?
We have seen prices fall about 20%. This equals the standard deposit fraction for property acquisitions. Consequently, any further property declines from now on represent losses for the banks, as some of their borrowers (those who borrowed recently or with deposits below 20%) go into negative equity.
We are now at a crucial moment in New Zealand's history. Alarm bells should now be ringing in our bank's finance departments. Will the Reserve Bank hear them?
How do losses for banks equate to "profits keep trending up"? I realise that they have done that in the past, but the tide is now turning.
We are at the brink of a financial crisis. If our Reserve Bank is not careful, commercial banks may go bust - the opposite of "profits trending up".
Adrian "careful is my middle name" Orr.
I thought it was 'Least Regrets'
People already expect a housing crash. Price have been disconnected from incomes for quite a while. Then the rocket boosters of cheap covid debt kicked in making it even crazier. Not just houses, stocks and old cars also soared on cheap debt. The tide has turned and nothing can hold it back.
A crash is not the end of the world. It's a return to reality supported by random fundamentals like.... income.
As labour is tight inflation will soar. As inflation soars, interest rates will follow. Interest rates soar, the wings of housing speculation will be clipped more and more.
One wonders as what point the banks will start to shoot the speculative.
The great majority of investors have long ago taken on board that interest rates would rise significantly through 2022.
Unlike the DGM, the majority of investors are not complete fools.
TTP
You sure about that ? The fool bit. I reckon the majority were sucked into the easy money cyclone.
I assume they all fixed for 5 years then with such foresight. Amazing that they knew what the RBNZ would do before the RBNZ knew. Although if they are that brilliant wouldn’t they have sold prior to house price falls? They could buy it back again later for less.
by tothepoint | 17th Aug 21, 11:48am
It's likely that interest rates have less impact on the housing market than many people here believe.
Property purchase decisions are frequently made in the context of a long-term horizon - so current interest rates, while important, aren't necessarily a critical factor in decision-making.
TTP
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/111797/barfoot-thompsons-latest-auc…
We're in for a soft-landing - much akin to the previous soft-landing of 2017/18. People will fight hard to hold their property assets in the face of rising interest rates. A tight labour market (near full-employment) is on their side. NZ's profile on the world stage continues to rise - for the best of reasons. We're a shining star. Property has excellent long-term prospects. Enjoy the weekend! TTP
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/111335/activity-has-remained-firm-r…
Your predictions are looking sillier and sillier by the day. Give it a rest.
Two Time Pollyanna
TTP
So you are telling me to be quick...
It's going to be very hard trying to pick the bottom of the market with prices falling but interest rates rising so when you do the math you are no better off. Could get to the point that sellers just hold so high rates and nothing to buy. We could see a never before seen situation in the market.
I went to an open home on the weekend for a house that was valued at 1.8M - 1.9M at the peak.
Now accepting offers from 1.45M and nobody biting. Another 200k to go and it would almost be reasonable.
Only another 150K OFF the 1.45m and it will be -30% Crash in value from the original 1.9M.
That would actually make a nice Xmas Present for December !
Somehow I think it will sell for 1.3M
ha - wait another month or two and they'll be calling 20% .. it's a month on month freefall and the bottom is still someway off
The economists models don't factor in the animal spirits.
Exactly. But they are even more flawed than that in their basic, non-behavioural assumptions.
Anyone forecasting an OCR of 3.5-4%, as ANZ are doing, should have their house price declines starting with the number two, bare minimum.
Their models are not fit for purpose.
Here is a very simple analysis that is probably better than ANZs: interest rates higher than three years ago, many houses built since three years ago, population stable since three years ago, surely prices have to be lower than three years ago.
I don't have the time right this minute, but potentially wage inflation over CPI inflation over that period also competing against mortgage serviceability and yea you're fairly right. We had a price boom in 2016, I'd hazard a guess that we may have to look back further in terms of affordability once the dust settles.
One thing is for sure, the bounce back will be in no way as dramatic as the turn at the peak. If the downturn lasts ~2years or more, then following the bottom I can see a year or potentially longer of recovery before significant momentum picks up again.
Anything is possible once the stampede gains momentum. Didn't take much really did it? 1 year ago and housing was a one-way bet. Id wager 99.9% of kiwis now accept its falling and we are now just arguing over how hard it will drop... Soon everyone will be arguing they where the first to predict the market crash that happens next (happening).
Still. The announcements are just PR marketing releases. They are designed to generate brand awareness & confidence when you next need a mortgage.
Taking these announcements seriously is basically taking financial advice from someone who personally profits the more debt you take on. Not exactly impartial...
The time to get your house in order was 1 year ago... the vultures are now swooping down and starting to nibble..
Housing seems to be a one-way bet again! But in the opposite direction.
On the plus side (before I'm labelled as DGM here), the average NZ family might soon be able to afford the hovel shown in the article's picture.
All because of drumhead policymaker/Orr at RBNZ.
Now NZ is second to srilanka in recession probability.
Doesn't seem bleeding will stop at 30%, NZD is sinking like a ship.
https://www.reddit.com/r/economy/comments/w7ywu0/recession_probability_…
Thank you AJ for this interesting comment. It is indeed some kind of achievement by our Reserve Bank that we are now second to Sri Lanka. Words fail me.
Overdue for Ashley Church's latest puff piece that will imply, smugly, that he predicted all of this.
Though maybe he's still busy on his upcoming book:
While I don’t make a secret of my strong Christian faith and my intense interest in Bible prophecy – it’s not a topic I often talk about. This is partly because I know how easy it is to be typecast and dismissed, and partly because what I know of the next few years will be better summarised in a book (which will almost certainly blow apart almost everything you thought you knew about prophecy,).
Interesting, I thought he was Jewish.
I think The Prophet has already warned us about the Church Of Ashes .
Oh god
Defining yourself Christian implies that you embrace Jesus beliefs.
What would have he think/say about the modern housing market?
I guess in hell they got negative interest rates and plurisecolar mortgages?
Imagine all the extra population/ demand if abortion were illegal and they forced the gays to be straight, house prices would double every 5 years. And if Saint Luxon also giveth tax advantages back to property investors the good lord would be reserving a special spot in heaven.
lol... don't give them new ideas :D
Think about all the extra Tax Payers there would be ??? You wont here anyone talk about that !
It amazes me that the right wing embrace Christianity when Jesus was clearly a socialist. When there were 5000 hungry people he didn’t seize the opportunity to price gouge them on the small amount of bread and fish available, instead he shared it out to make sure no one went hungry. I doubt he would have been a property investor.
Haha yes as I've been saying on here for a number of years the aim of the property investor types is to turn thy neighbour into thy rent slave.
Its the lowest, least ethical form of investment you can think of...we have a housing crisis and you are trying to exploit the poor (i.e. no home owners) for your own financial benefit. Its actually quite a sad thing to do if you have the capacity to see past the 'fear of missing out'.
How is it the lowest all investment, exploiting people is not necessary. What about cigarette companies killing people, or drug companies charging hundreds of thousands of dollars for life saving drugs, or prescribed opioids like it was candy. Payday loans lending people who can least afford it loans at 1% per day compounding (3600% per year if you pay nothing + plus fees). Crypto that burns through 4000 times more energy per transaction than visa in a time of global warming, but what the hell I'm making money. Or cell phone companies that sell phones to beneficiaries on 100 a week plans. How about using slave child labor in other countries to make cheap products, I will stop now.
Sure there are landlords that take advantage of people, but there are also landlords that provide reasonable housing at a reasonable cost. There are so many ways our current economy deems acceptable to screw people over for me its hard to pick the worst.
Bad property investors are just taking advantage of wider system that puts profit above the well-being of society. If offered a way to make millions most people would jump at the opportunity. The problem as I see it is we don't have a problem with systemic racism we have one with systemic greed.
Jesus never controlled or manipulated. So he was never a socialist.
Capitalism has always been the most successful system by far. Look at America. But if you take away the bible from Capitalism then it fails. Look at America.
He told the rich that they couldn’t get into heaven unless they gave away their money (manipulation), he also turned over the tables of the traders at the temple (control) and said render unto Caesar what is Caesar’s (support for state taxation). Seems fairly left wing to me.
And Jesus went into the temple of God, and cast out all them that sold and bought in the temple, and overthrew the tables of the money changers, and the seats of them that sold doves, And said unto them, It is written, My house shall be called the house of prayer; but ye have made it a den of thieves
This cracked me up, thanks
One of the best comments I’ve ever read - thank you Waikatohome !!!
Turn thy neighbour into thy rent slave - is the aim of the property investor types.
Hardly a 'love thy neighbour' view of the world.
A good example of taking away bible principles from Capitalism . It fails.
'almost certainly blow apart almost everything you thought you knew about property (prophecy). There, corrected that spelling mistake.
If the name wasn't already taken, he could call the new book/chapter -'Revelations - End of the Property Times.'
Just imagine Ashley the prophet taking his punishment on the cross for the sins of his fellow property investors....and the harm it has done to mankind.
Yeah nah....
Wow, this is interesting. Yes, we are in the Book of Revelation, and the pages are turning.
I personally hope the market falls more than 15%. We need to take our medicine.
I wish i had been an economist - easiest job in the world to copy what he said - and when its wrong they face no consequences nor follow up.
Probably second only to being reserve bank governer who gets roughly the same gig but more money.
Or a weather forecaster.
"They are now forecasting a 15% fall in houses prices from their peaks of late last year, compared to their previous expectations of a 12% fall."
Prices has already fallen MORE than 15%.
Haha automatically out of date! 🤡
I'd be interested in the data, if there is any yet. When or how many mortgages there are out there that are worth more than the value of their house? Or arent we there yet?
You could start here, but this data is not broken down by region. Some regions have had much greater drops than others, ie Wellington.
You'd have to pair that with recent HPI report against peak HPI report to reference the % change.
I'd say we're generally not there yet but there must be some out there for sure.
Economists? Forecasting? Since most of their insights are retrospective, they should change their name to 'Valuers.'
Are you looking to sell or looking to buy ... do you want a high valuation or a low one??
If the Fed raise rate 0.75% this week, any predictions for RB in August? Thanks
Unlike the USA, our economy is very property dependent. The USA has seen house prices fall by a healthy 5-10%, we have seen falls of about 20%.
Whilst I don't have a prediction, I hope the RBNZ can somehow decouple itself from the FED's moves. I am not sure how this would be possible under Bretton Woods - does anybody know? Does the RBNZ need to borrow from the FED?
There is no way for NZ to disassociate itself from the US dollar-dominated global economy. As it is, RBNZ has to keep rates here slightly higher than US, basically as a risk premium. There is a little wiggle room but not much if RBNZ wants to prevent NZ dollar from crashing. Imagine how expensive things would be here if the NZ dollar was under 40 cents (as it was around 1999-2000).
Thanks for your reply. I have some USD and cant quite understand why the NZD/USD has been rising this week, weird, but agree it nt last
Thanks
Brother Brock knows the answer to that .
First we lose the rugby, now this! The New Zealand Psyche is taking a hammering.
Please for the love of God let no-one find an Australian pavlova recipe dating earlier than 1927, it could push the country over the edge.
www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-11897482.amp
In many areas they have already dropped more than 15%
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