The average value of New Zealand homes is down by more than $114,000 since it peaked in March last year.
According to the CoreLogic House Price Index, the national average residential property value was $928,656 in April this year. That's down another 0.6% for the month, and down $114,605 (-11%) since values peaked in March last year.
The overall decline in average values in the Auckland region since March last year pushed past $200,000 for the first time, dropping from $1,520,341 in March last year to $1,314,546 in April this year. That's a decline of 13.5%.
Within the Auckland region, average values are now down by more than $200,000 in North Shore, Waitakere, Central Auckland and Manukau compared to March last year.
The biggest drop in value over that period was in Wellington City, where the average decline in values ranged from -$226,468 in the city's central and southern suburbs to $329,035 in the western suburbs.
The table below shows how much average values have declined throughout the country between March last year and April this year.
However CoreLogic's New Zealand Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson said there were signs property values may be starting to flatten out, with the 0.6% decline for the month of April being smaller than the declines of about 1% in January and February this year.
" The slowdown in the rate of decline could be signalling a near term floor for house prices, which would be consistent with some shifting trends in key drivers," he said.
"The generalised peak in mortgage rates could start to increases buyers' confidence in the coming months, while employment remains high, alongside a slight decline in available listings and rising net migration."
The slight easing in loan-to-value ratio (LVR) lending limits and changes to the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act might also help sales.
However Davidson noted that if the economy slipped into recession, as many expect, it could have a negative impact on the market and increase the prospect of some home owners falling into negative equity.
CoreLogic estimated that about 2500 recent first home buyers may now be in a negative equity situation, with their mortgage debt being greater than the value of their property.
"Buyers in Auckland and Wellington make up the bulk of those properties," Davidson said.
The comment stream on this story is now closed.
| CoreLogic House Price Index | |||
| April 2023 Compared to March 2022 | |||
| District | Average Value March 2022 | Average Value April 2023 | Change |
| Far North | $698,321 | $685,866 | -$12,455 |
| Whangarei | $839,480 | $746,401 | -$93,079 |
| Kaipara | $877,714 | $817,388 | -$60,326 |
| Auckland - Rodney | $1,420,588 | $1,266,966 | -$153,622 |
| Rodney - Hibiscus Coast | $1,320,398 | $1,176,372 | -$144,026 |
| Rodney - North | $1,508,791 | $1,343,257 | -$165,534 |
| Auckland - North Shore | $1,676,550 | $1,450,668 | -$225,882 |
| North Shore - Coastal | $1,908,991 | $1,667,225 | -$241,766 |
| North Shore - North Harbour | $1,608,449 | $1,384,059 | -$224,390 |
| North Shore - Onewa | $1,365,261 | $1,170,108 | -$195,153 |
| Auckland - Waitakere | $1,226,326 | $1,021,457 | -$204,869 |
| Auckland - City | $1,765,043 | $1,562,719 | -$202,324 |
| Auckland City - Central | $1,494,429 | $1,318,159 | -$176,270 |
| Auckland City - Islands | $1,919,391 | $1,618,377 | -$301,014 |
| Auckland City - South | $1,588,207 | $1,423,160 | -$165,047 |
| Auckland_City - East | $2,205,282 | $1,944,981 | -$260,301 |
| Auckland - Manukau | $1,370,259 | $1,146,209 | -$224,050 |
| Manukau - Central | $1,062,299 | $889,759 | -$172,540 |
| Manukau - East | $1,704,202 | $1,431,059 | -$273,143 |
| Manukau - North West | $1,185,542 | $995,785 | -$189,757 |
| Auckland - Papakura | $1,084,641 | $896,499 | -$188,142 |
| Auckland - Franklin | $1,045,704 | $942,949 | -$102,755 |
| Thames Coromandel | $1,159,754 | $1,156,091 | -$3,663 |
| Hauraki | $695,665 | $664,558 | -$31,107 |
| Waikato | $773,472 | $745,754 | -$27,718 |
| Matamata Piako | $741,685 | $694,579 | -$47,106 |
| Hamilton | $891,884 | $806,675 | -$85,209 |
| Hamilton - Central & North West | $821,597 | $756,316 | -$65,281 |
| Hamilton - North East | $1,113,445 | $999,055 | -$114,390 |
| Hamilton - South East | $823,451 | $739,884 | -$83,567 |
| Hamilton - South West | $789,254 | $710,740 | -$78,514 |
| Waipa | $912,488 | $860,431 | -$52,057 |
| South Waikato | $478,088 | $441,868 | -$36,220 |
| Waitomo | $386,142 | $389,088 | $2,946 |
| Taupo | $882,732 | $842,915 | -$39,817 |
| Western BOP | $1,060,921 | $984,901 | -$76,020 |
| Tauranga | $1,185,907 | $1,046,736 | -$139,171 |
| Rotorua | $725,385 | $648,685 | -$76,700 |
| Whakatane | $782,692 | $737,289 | -$45,403 |
| Kawerau | $427,556 | $384,739 | -$42,817 |
| Gisborne | $659,477 | $607,926 | -$51,551 |
| Wairoa | $412,186 | $372,467 | -$39,719 |
| Hastings | $903,004 | $781,961 | -$121,043 |
| Napier | $895,290 | $763,312 | -$131,978 |
| Central Hawkes Bay | $661,956 | $576,300 | -$85,656 |
| New Plymouth | $728,891 | $705,936 | -$22,955 |
| Stratford | $486,143 | $474,712 | -$11,431 |
| South Taranaki | $434,768 | $437,852 | $3,084 |
| Ruapehu | $409,340 | $389,802 | -$19,538 |
| Whanganui | $572,865 | $509,013 | -$63,852 |
| Rangitikei | $495,263 | $397,436 | -$97,827 |
| Manawatu | $673,150 | $602,161 | -$70,989 |
| Palmerston North | $748,529 | $637,370 | -$111,159 |
| Tararua | $465,093 | $411,976 | -$53,117 |
| Horowhenua | $662,887 | $566,683 | -$96,204 |
| Kapiti Coast | $977,568 | $818,938 | -$158,630 |
| Porirua | $1,010,455 | $801,875 | -$208,580 |
| Upper Hutt | $931,727 | $736,644 | -$195,083 |
| Lower Hutt | $985,062 | $779,549 | -$205,513 |
| Wellington City | $1,274,691 | $1,026,705 | -$247,986 |
| Wellington - Central & South | $1,199,083 | $972,615 | -$226,468 |
| Wellington - East | $1,407,446 | $1,145,953 | -$261,493 |
| Wellington - North | $1,210,878 | $976,691 | -$234,187 |
| Wellington - West | $1,470,774 | $1,141,739 | -$329,035 |
| Masterton | $682,675 | $579,279 | -$103,396 |
| Carterton | $731,839 | $623,682 | -$108,157 |
| South Wairarapa | $901,792 | $801,770 | -$100,022 |
| Tasman | $856,447 | $796,944 | -$59,503 |
| Nelson | $865,695 | $802,392 | -$63,303 |
| Marlborough | $739,433 | $690,653 | -$48,780 |
| Kaikoura | $598,853 | $604,667 | $5,814 |
| Grey | $328,982 | $354,602 | $25,620 |
| Hurunui | $592,393 | $621,709 | $29,316 |
| Waimakariri | $690,646 | $696,048 | $5,402 |
| Christchurch | $757,902 | $734,335 | -$23,567 |
| Christchurch - Banks Peninsula | $803,553 | $796,860 | -$6,693 |
| Christchurch - Central & North | $867,766 | $836,108 | -$31,658 |
| Christchurch - East | $577,465 | $577,897 | $432 |
| Christchurch - Hills | $1,043,650 | $1,039,620 | -$4,030 |
| Christchurch - Southwest | $733,297 | $690,884 | -$42,413 |
| Selwyn | $868,673 | $813,671 | -$55,002 |
| Ashburton | $507,618 | $532,747 | $25,129 |
| Timaru | $503,717 | $516,235 | $12,518 |
| MacKenzie | $658,722 | $703,741 | $45,019 |
| Waimate | $404,842 | $437,444 | $32,602 |
| Waitaki | $493,647 | $491,926 | -$1,721 |
| Central Otago | $775,681 | $783,922 | $8,241 |
| Queenstown Lakes | $1,684,142 | $1,712,092 | $27,950 |
| Dunedin | $698,879 | $620,391 | -$78,488 |
| Dunedin - Central & North | $722,376 | $629,709 | -$92,667 |
| Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal | $662,771 | $594,710 | -$68,061 |
| Dunedin - South | $659,979 | $585,480 | -$74,499 |
| Dunedin - Taieri | $723,196 | $651,931 | -$71,265 |
| Clutha | $414,742 | $412,844 | -$1,898 |
| Southland | $477,292 | $480,647 | $3,355 |
| Gore | $374,982 | $391,316 | $16,334 |
| Invercargill | $481,586 | $450,548 | -$31,038 |
| Auckland Region | $1,520,341 | $1,314,546 | -$205,795 |
| Wellington Region | $1,128,708 | $901,992 | -$226,716 |
| Main Urban Areas | $1,185,036 | $1,030,703 | -$154,333 |
| All of Aotearoa | $1,043,261 | $928,656 | -$114,605 |
79 Comments
Poor Logic. Why bother?
House prices rose much faster than they’re falling.
Those who opt for a counter-cyclical strategy at this point will likely be well rewarded 😁 especially given the tightening rental accommodation market.
Anyway, one only has to glance through this daily blog to gauge the enthusiasm for housing/property - and, thus, its weighty underlying demand......
See the plethora of comments below.
TTP
Wasn't it you that said "those who try to time the market for big falls will be disappointed" ? 😭
While buying when there's a glut is a good strategy, you need to be consistent for the sake of credibility....
With regard to the housing market and house prices, Retired-Poppy, it has frequently been observed here that your comments and predictions are consistently incorrect.
Indeed, attempting to time the market can be a fraught strategy. But, in the longer term, things tend to iron out..... Property has a particularly strong track record of yielding very favourable returns for the vast majority of home owners and investors. Thus, there are relatively few losers over time.
TTP
‘Thus, there are relatively few losers over the longer run’
Only if you ignore those that can’t afford to get on the bandwagon
Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
RP consistently incorrect? Nah, just a timing issue. It's happening.
There is a lot of irony you in questioning others predictions. Lets not forget in late 2021 early 2022, right at the peak of the market, you specifically recommended people buy in Auckland and Wellington as safe bets - only for those markets to drop in value by 20-25%. You even said prices might rise in during 2022.
Hi Miguel,
Your posting above is misleading and deceptive.
Note that during the period you mention, I made a number of comments about the reality/importance of market discipline and the risks of people hitting the wall at speed during housing market corrections/downturns.
I have repeatedly emphasised that the housing market is cyclical in nature (as with business cycles) and that market downswings/downturns are inevitable. I specifically warned on a number of occasions that a housing market correction was due.
Further, readers will recall the "tongue in cheek" humour I have used to caution against exuberant buying during buoyant market conditions (strong upswings). For instance, regarding the temptations/seduction of low mortgage interest rates, many readers will recall my quips such as "I say old chap, all this cheap money is intoxicating. See you down at the Audi showroom in the morning."
I have repeatedly made the point that, given the uncertainties of forecasting, a good time to buy is when one finds the "right" property for her/his specific needs. Buying a property in a market trough or boom may not turn out well if it is the "wrong" property given the buyer's needs. That's because of the transactions costs (and general inconvenience) of having to sell it in order to buy the "right" property.
As I recall, I have said that property prices might stabilise (or rise) from around mid-2023 (not 2022). But if I'm wrong, I'll take it on the chin.
Finally, some properties did rise in price in 2022. But I never said that was a "safe bet". The latter is something you have fabricated - i.e. lied about.
TTP
by tothepoint | 1st Nov 21, 6:27pm
Wellington and Auckland remain excellent choices for property investors.
But don’t dismiss the provincial cities - especially progressive centres such as Palmerston North. Well-located sections in PN are fetching premium prices - such is their scarcity. That’s an indication that PN house prices will continue rising.
TTP
by tothepoint | 14th Jan 22, 4:51pm
Despite all the doom and gloom about mortgage interest rates rising over 2022, there's still a reasonable chance that house prices will continue to increase.
And if some homeowners have to sell up because they can't afford their repayments, that will raise the demand for rental dwellings - putting further upward pressure on rents.
TTP
by tothepoint | 3rd Feb 22, 12:11pm
Sales volumes will fall - but prices will hold pretty well.
TTP
by tothepoint | 8th Dec 21, 4:26pm
House prices have a long tradition of being resilient in NZ.
Growth in house prices next year is unlikely to match that of the last 2-3 years but prospects for a major downward correction are weak. The population is far too enthusiastic about property for that to be a realistic scenario.
TTP
Hi Mogul,
So, yes, I'm correct above. Nowhere did I state that anything was a "safe bet". You've been dishonest about that.
My comments were all made cautiously/judiciously - avoiding absolutes - as I don't go for creating spurious illusions of precision. I used terms/words such as "reasonable chance", "possibility", "relatively", unlikely", "indication", "likelihood" and "resilience", etc. I choose such words very carefully. Thus, your attempts to misrepresent (and lie) about what I've said are shabby.
Further, I note you have left out the broader context in which I made my comments. In particular (as I frequently make clear to readers) my context/focus is typically the long term (which extends well beyond 2022/23). You have cunningly/deceitfully omitted (hidden!) that in your selective quotes of my comments. You're guilty of a lot of other spurious stuff such as ignoring that 2023 still has over 7 months to run.
I stand by what I have said.......
For instance, I believe that Wellington and Auckland remain excellent choices for property investors, as do numerous provincial cities like Tauranga, New Plymouth, Palmerston North, Greytown, Nelson, Napier and Taupo.
Further, various properties did, in fact, show price growth (or hold their prices) through 2022, including numerous higher-echelon properties. (This has been well-validated/documented/publicised.)
Rents have, in fact, continued to grow through much of the country and there's good evidence that this trend may continue.
I have stated several times recently that the current market correction has been relatively weak. I have also used the word "timid". Notably, NZ house prices remain well above pre-pandemic levels. So go figure......
Finally, I've just noticed that you've now completely edited out three entire sections of your initial post! Clearly, you realised you'd got yourself in hot water by playing a game of ducks and drakes, so you reacted by quietly/cowardly editing out much of the text exposing you - in a lame attempt to duck for cover. Your original post has now diminished by more than two-thirds of its length! If you edit it much further, there'll be nothing left .......
What a kanivering sham.
TTP
I used terms/words such as
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weasel_word:
A weasel word, or anonymous authority, is an informal term for words and phrases aimed at creating an impression that something specific and meaningful has been said, when in fact only a vague or ambiguous claim has been communicated
You claim you'd take it on the chin if you're wrong this year, yet you refuse to face up to past comments quoted back at you.
Hi Kohukohunui,
Trying to self-appoint yourself as the "Thought Policeman"...... Bolshevik tendencies?
Not much point in having a blog if people are denied the opportunity of expressing their thoughts in their own way.
As mentioned above, in forecasting I'm not interested in creating spurious illusions of precision.
So I reject your tendencies and, instead, stick with freedom of speech and democratic principles.
TTP
Haha, pathetic. You can attempt to obfuscate all you want, but anyone reading those direct quotes can see for themselves exactly how wrong you were. Instead of "taking on it the chin" like you promised you would, you just try and revise and rewrite what you actually said.
I didn't "edit out" sections of my post to remove anything. You need to click "read more" at the bottom of longer posts to view the whole thing. What a classic example of you attempting to attack and discredit people, rather than admit to your own failings.
To be clear, Miguel, I am happy to take responsibility for my comments/predictions here, whether they turn out to be incorrect or correct. As I've said previously, when something I say turns out to be incorrect, I will "take it on the chin".
In late-2021 / early-2022, I stated that I thought there was still a "reasonable chance" that house prices would continue to rise in 2022, which was my belief at the time. As it transpired, some did, particularly in the early part of 2022. But, clearly, most didn't as the year progressed. Thus, I apologise from the balls of my feet to the follicles of my hair.
I take exception, however, to you quoting my comments out of context - for instance when I make a long-term prediction but you represent it as being a short-term prediction. Or, when I make a statement with a qualification - and you quote it without the qualification. That sort of behaviour is unethical at best and malice at worst.
TTP
Well yeah, enthusiasm for sane housing fundamentals which are being forced upon RBNZ whether they like it or not.
Maybe if you carry on with your comedy, David will split the Adsense revenue based on your homeopathic approach to economics.
You see, the housing the market always doubles every ten years, we just need to rebalance the markets shakras, never mind the data or inflation issue stemming over decades.
Would be good if the corelogic table included the % drop next to the amount.
Just shows how house prices are tied so much to interest rates, and what rate banks are willing to stress people at. As soon as they rose, house prices dropped. When they fell in 2020, it created a massive house price bubble. Notice that the media don't mention the B word, or the C word, crash. Even though a few years ago one property expert said that if prices fell 20% or more, then they consider that a crash. Opening the flood gates on immigration like Australia is doing does create demand for houses, but people still need to be able to afford. Interesting how many property experts I have heard in the media saying that interest rates will drop back, like lower interest rates are normal. But the current rates are historically already quite low.
Agree with most of this. As soon as interest rates start falling there will be more demand to buy houses and thus prices will begin to increase again. The reason house prices rocketed during COVID was low interest rates and short supply. Immigration tap has now been turned on so pressure is already increasing on supply, just need interest rates to fall so more people can actually afford to buy. I don’t think we’ll see mortgage rates back down to 2% in the next couple of years but 4% is certainly possible. I know Westpac are already offering 3-5 year mortgages at 5.99%.
How will homes be affordable if rates drop and prices go up? 4% is just too low imho
Apparently the housing crisis and "affordability" was all about what it costs to service the mortgage, not the required deposit in dollar terms increasing at a faster rate than aspiring FHB could save. I suspect this misconception comes from those who bought back when a down payment was loose change and the interest costs (in % terms) was high.
Time to post this again: Clarke and Dawe on banks
I'm not convinced this is the case.
Yes, part of being able to buy a house is being able to service the debt, which depends on interest rates. However, there are a few other aspects which are equally important when convincing the bank to give you a loan, such as having a decent income, and the bank's perception that this income is stable.
Yes, we are supposedly going through a phase where monetary policy is intended to be contractionary, and once inflation is under control, interest rates might come down a bit. But, given the last CPI print showed non-tradeables inflation increasing, I'm not so sure that current interest rates are that high above the level where monetary policy is neutral.
Furthermore, Adrian has explicitly said that he believes unemployment is above maximum sustainable levels, and that this is contributing to inflation. He's going to be relatively comfortable with unemployment ticking up quite a bit, without feeling the need to pull back on interest rates.
I have a feeling that the only way we're going to get interest rate cuts which make a material difference on affordability any time soon is if the wheels well and truly fall off the labour market, which won't do wonders when it comes to the banks' willingness to lend to you (e.g, see the GFC where we had large cuts to the OCR, alongside falls in house prices).
Agreed. See what happens...
Too much logic for the DGMs….
Agree, Iceman. And this blog is saturated with DGM…….
Thus, it’s not representative of the general public.
TTP
Says who Tim? If defining people who want house prices to come back to a realistic rational level as DGMs as a minority i reckon you need to check yourself chief
by tothepoint | 3rd May 23, 10:58am
Agree, Iceman. And this blog is saturated with DGM…….
Thus, it’s not representative of the general public
My guess is the C word will eventually arrive in MSM later this year so it will be interesting to see who is the first journo to use it
But MSM is a joke, and a key contributor to the bubble led by the cheerleader of property spruikers that is OneWoof
They were happy to republish a Doom Loop scenario as a possibility in Aus in 2018 when their prices were falling, but now the NZ market is in the same position with scenarios actually playing out, we get radio silence - or worst than that, we're getting the 'green shoots' narrative which is an absolute con-job to the uninformed.
"In that scenario we could see a negative feedback loop that would build on itself, whereby the banks have tightened lending conditions and unemployment increases, particularly in the construction industry as prices fall and the market starts to weaken."
Soon the general economy falls off. "You get people defaulting on loans, forced sales push prices down, a self-perpetuating loop," she said. "This is when you get the dramatic drop in residential investment, a plunge in house prices, that depresses spending and destroys consumer and business confidence."
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/the-doom-loop-that-could-aussie-house-pr…
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/aussie-house-prices-could-crash-by-…
I think these falls are about to get significantly larger in Wellington. I'm seeing more and more houses for sale with an asking price well below their 'Homes' values, which are generally 25-30% down from peak. I'm expecting at least another 25% drop from where we are.
Wellington houses are on average in a worse state or poor repair compared with the houses in Auckland and Christchurch. Its an ongoing problem due to weather, and age of the houses, and other factors like access to public transport. They have overshot their fair value because of the ridiculous wages consultants earn in wellington, I agree there is plenty of downside in wellington compared to christchurch
There are plenty of rot boxes in Auckland as well
Yup. Was looking at a place last week - offered for 40% off RV due to identified leaky home. Under contract, apparently, but no finance as yet so REA was taking 'back up' offers. Also said finance had fallen through for people due to banks not being willing to lend on the leaky place. The reported rental yield (at 40% off) was 3%.
There are plots of land nearby for only $200k less - and we thought they were probably still overpriced as they looked like slip hazzards to us. Even at the advertised prices, none of these places would be affordable for any household on less than double the median income, at the current interest rates.
That’s why houses in good repair attract premium rents. And that applies everywhere - not just Auckland and Wellington.
Apparently, rents are well above $2,000.00 per week for some Auckland houses. Suburbs like Ponsonby and Herne Bay, no doubt.
TTP
maybe less then 0.5% of Auckland, hardly applicable for a Manurewa shitebox... how can they still want over 1 mill for such tat was only 300k after the GFC
Anyone who is paying $2000+ per week for rent is earning two high 6 figure salaries. They could purchase, but are clearly not interested due to the need for flexibility, renting while building a new mansion like some of my clients, here from overseas, shorter term high wage contracts etc. Those are large family homes, or seriously extravagant apartments.
We have a very nice (older) 2 bedroom place in Herne Bay and pay under $600.
They are often a corporate lease to accommodate foreign workers on contract of looking for their own home or rented by business owners who have sunk their capital into business and have to rent.
This surprised me...a real drop from what was being paid or you would expect in this area of the Tron. $928k.
Maybe there is a an issue?
https://www.weisenchow.co.nz/listings/26-keswick-crescent-huntington-ha…
"Last Sold on 14 Oct 2022 for $980,000"
Ouch.
Check the cladding, in particular is there a cavity in the exterior wall/cladding construction. Looks like it might have been built under the old ( pre 2004) building code.
What was all the hot air about yesterday? Stupid comments made by DGMs
Of course you would claim they were stupid, especially from someone who can't think
Of course you would claim they were stupid, especially from someone who can't think DGM
There I've fixed it
You missed the wake HW2, look at RBA, thats what happens if you take your foot off the Markets too soon..... who could think that a central bank could pause and if the market roars, start rising AGAIN.... man you have to be careful after timing now or you will join a suckers rally.... or you can wait, at -2.9% a month its $1000 a day savings, be slow.
Have been reviewing the rent stats this week and been surprised by how high are rents in our biggest city. Dont ask me to give you the numbers, DYOR on TM. Ultimately, high rents support high house prices.
The war on landlords doesn't fix the issues. Its far better freeing up supply and reducing barriers for new landlords to bring new properties to the market. But maybe Lamebour can bring in rent ceilings as their next cool move.
It's comments like that that highlight the exploitative nature of some landlords. Keep it up, your doing a great job of influencing #notNational at the approaching election.
Just making a straw man argument, it's the reason I said DYOR. The numbers lead some to conflagration, while others know its better to be informed.
We don't need more landlords owning more and more rentals, we need owner occupiers.
That’s correct. We have always had enough houses in NZ- the demand/ supply imbalance comes from such a high number of investors that own multiple properties in relation to housing stock
Landlords are the saviours of the poor unhoused - and don’t you forget it!
But who then will provide a service subsidising the renter's accommodation [in return for a subsidised mortgage, title and retirement fund package deal]?
Trademe rental listings are asking prices, not actual prices paid. https://www.tenancy.govt.nz/rent-bond-and-bills/market-rent/
Hahaha, stop with actual data. HW hates that.
I love how landlords have some kind of jesus complex where they believe they're saving people by offering rentals. You do realize, the investment side of housing is exactly why more and more amounts of people are reliant on rentals?
The demand and hoarding by investors have ruined the possibilities of owner-occupied housing. The longer we do this, the larger the proportion of the population become reliant on renting because owning is no longer viable.
And driving our future tax payers to Aussie.
Aussie or anywhere else that is providing a brighter future outlook. I have a fully remote job and waiting for my partner to also get a fully remote role. Once she has it, we're selling all of our NZ based assets and leaving, hopefully before EOY.
Hold off coming to Aussie.. Impossible to get a rental at the moment in any capital cities.
Apartments complex next to my workplace used to rent out for $450/wk for two bedders, now $690 no parking or $730 with one park!
In a couple of years time I think we will see the same outcry here about rental shortages and associated skyrocketing rents and homelessness. All because of cranking immigration up much faster than new homes being built.
It’s inevitable and it’s coming.
I trust you will buy once you get there and not rent 21T. Or are the landlords in Australia inherently less evil?
I never said I was going to Aus... we are off to SEA to work and travel. Much cheaper rent, food, with large communities of remote working westerners and entrepreneurs.
Once you're working a full remote role on western money, there is nothing attractive of staying in NZ.
on that, I know of 5+ friends that have done this already. Some have gone to Aus but majority have gone work/travelling in cheaper countries.
NZ is just replacing our missing rental spots by mass immigration. Failed state.
SEA, not Singapore I hope....
Interestingly we recently came back from Kuala Lumpur - There were about 6 long term residents in our hotel, living and working remotely. One of them said to us that he's paying the same as Sydney rental!
Thanks but I call bullshit on high rents. Don't ask me to give you numbers, DYOR on TM.
Oh well I must be fudging or mistaken. That solves that
Rents may be "high" but yields are absolutely crap!
And, contrary to what you assert, it is yields the define values over the medium term, not rents.
Eeek! Halfway through then? Maybe end of this year might be bargain hunting time, once almost all mortgages are on higher rates.
Are you looking to collect property as an investment or trade up?
Neither, we are building.
I am thinking about a number of young couples I know who are sitting on the sidelines watching the carnage having saved for a decade or so.
You make a good point not often spoken about. Young couples that couldn't buy during the rampant house price rises have been wisely sitting on their hands while prices plummet. Saving as much as deposit they can the whole time. When this backlog of couples see the bottom in, they will rush to buy.
I have no idea when that bottom will be.
Where would the property price bottom be if the government introduced a capital gains tax?
No one knows exactly where we will exactly be by spring 2023 however I am certain house prices will be lower than they are now and in differing degrees over the country. Throw in inflation and there is nothing for the evangelical spruikers to gloat about currently.
Markets falling at a faster pace now 2.9% next month will probably not be as much BUT the 3 month rolling average will look worse.
"The slowdown in the rate of decline could be signalling a near term floor for house prices"
Bold assertion from a man peddling 3 month old data...
We already know from the REINZ data that this is simply not true.
Property prices have still got some way to go. All the vested interest trying their hardest to revive the dead market. Even when it bottoms out their won't be a quick rebound. Interest rates will not be cut back to emergency levels in the foreseeable future. It will probably settle in the ranges of 4.5%-5.5% commercial bank rates. The best case scenario is a flat market for a while. Wages will somewhat catch up abit because of the wage inflation pressure. Otherwise young people will just leave for aussie.
Got the following email today from Oneroof...
New OneRoof-Valocity House Value Index data shows the nationwide average property value is, $958,000, 24% higher than it was in March 2020, just before Covid-19 struck.
The figures also point to a likely end to the house price slump, with the nationwide rate of decline slowing from a peak of almost 5% in September to 2% in April. The potential loosening of Loan-to-Value ratios rules might also help buyers re-enter the market and boost competition. Watch this space.
OneRoof Editor,
Owen Vaughan
Good to see someone seeing some positive news in the data. Can't believe all the DGMs around here
Why is that good news. Is it not better if more people are able to buy their first home because house prices have dropped sufficiently for them to do so. So many people are obsessed over the need to see house prices going up. The word ‘greed’ comes to mind.
Haha good one. Oneroof Editor aka paid mouthpiece for realestate advertising. Classic. Note - assumes you were not serious about their independence as a source of info...?
Where will the bottom be?
I'd suggest, using Auckland's flat line since the new Unitary Plan of 2016 increased the quantity of dwellings allowed per site, to be about 2016-2020 prices adjusted for wage inflation. That's about another 10% to 20% by my rough reckoning.
Yep. somewhere around the old council rates grab, I mean valuation.
The only relevant metric I am looking for is when will the purchase price of lower quartile houses drop low enough in our largest metropolitan centres to become affordable for the working class who wish to partake of home ownership in those same areas. Is that metric 3 times annual income or 2.5 times? I don’t know. Most of those working people would fall over themselves to partake of home ownership and get out of the inter-generational renting trap. I will definitely celebrate when/if this occurs. Will be a salutary day in the recent history of this country.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.