House prices still facing downward pressure - now down 17.6% from the November 2021 peak

Property / news

Upper Hutt and Franklin in south Auckland had the biggest house price falls last month

12th May 23, 11:14am by Greg Ninness

Upper Hutt in Wellington

House prices continued to face downwards pressure in April, with the Real Estate Institute of NZ's House Price Index falling another 0.8% for the month.

That means it has declined by 12.0% over the 12 months to April and is down by 17.6% compared to its peak in November 2021.

In the major population centres the biggest price decline in April was in Upper Hutt where the HPI declined by -5.0%, followed by Franklin on Auckland's southern boundary at -3.6%.

Also showing substantial declines were Invercargill -2.8%, and Auckland's central suburbs, which include some of the country's most expensive residential suburbs such as Herne Bay, Ponsonby, Parnell, Remuera, Epsom and St Heliers, where the HPI was down by -2.6% for the month.

Across the entire Auckland region the HPI declined by -1.3% in April.

In the Wellington Region the HPI was flat overall in spite of the substantial decline in Upper Hutt, with the HPI increasing by 1.1% in Wellington City.

Other areas which went against the national trend and posted an increase in the HPI in April were Rodney +0.6% and Manukau +1.8% in Auckland, New Plymouth +0.2%, Palmerston North +0.3, Queenstown Lakes +1.5% and Dunedin +0.6%.

The graph below shows the monthly trend in the national HPI since April 2020 and the tables show the movement in the main urban districts over one, three and 12 months.

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REINZ House Price Index - April 2023

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41 Comments

by Von Metternich | 12th May 23, 11:31am 1683847902

Why are these periphery areas of major cities and not the further out towns with ridiculous prices vs local salaries? A place in Dannevirke still asks for $400k, same with Masterton or Carterton asking ~$400-600k for a 3 bedroom, 1 bath starter home. Upper Hutt is asking for ~$550-700k

Upper Hutt is nicer than Lower Hutt, odd that it is falling so much.

by Chairman Moa | 12th May 23, 3:29pm 1683862199

It's incredible how expensive Dannivirke has become. i worked there for two months in early 2000s.. it's a hole then and possibly still a hole now!

by Shaft | 12th May 23, 12:01pm 1683849709

Upper hutt is bumhole. To many low brows, noisey useless Harleys, tatoo shops, V8 comodores, "nut crushingly" tight black jeans, and bottle blondes with ginger re growth.

And thats just the so called men!

We wont mention the Bogans 🖕

by IT GUY | 12th May 23, 12:49pm 1683852599

Sounds like a good place to party..... I bet you independant liquior love the place.

by Shaft | 12th May 23, 12:55pm 1683852921

ITGUY, I NOTICE THE "WOKE POLICE" NEVER BAG OR TAG MY SEXIST ( according to them) COMMENTS WHEN THEY PERTAIN TO WHITE MALES.

Does that make them/ they bigots, sexist, or racists

by IT GUY | 12th May 23, 3:50pm 1683863400

see my comment on the main 4pm thread when it opens

by HW2 | 12th May 23, 6:55pm 1683874545

Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde convo above

by J.C. | 12th May 23, 12:49pm 1683852579

Ashiya City (on the hills between Osaka and Kobe) has one of the highest incomes among Japan municipalities. You could buy a property in Ashiya for approx the same price as in Masterton.

Nice hiking routes around Ashiya.

by bw | 12th May 23, 1:05pm 1683853522

Ah, yes. But didn't Japan have an almighty property shake-out a few decades back; some 90% falls in place (parts of Tokyo). And they haven't either fully recovered from it or, more importantly, forgotten it.

We need that here. Especially the bit that the scars it into our Private Debt soaked heads. It appears to be the only way we learn.

(I have an Australian born and bred friend who visited Osaka some decades back, and never left. Loves the people and the place, and tells me he'll never go back to Aussie, except for a holiday)

by J.C. | 12th May 23, 2:20pm 1683858011

(I have an Australian born and bred friend who visited Osaka some decades back, and never left. Loves the people and the place, and tells me he'll never go back to Aussie, except for a holiday)

Osaka is great. I worked as a supplier to P&G in Kobe on Rokko Island (home to quite a few pro baseball and rugby players), but based myself in Osaka as the lifestyle suited me. Kobe and Ashiya much better for nature and more low key.

Just my opinion, but far more interesting and livable places than Masterton. But each to their own.

by Speedmax | 12th May 23, 6:28pm 1683872938

There are thousands of fantastic places round the world with far cheaper housing than comparable in NZ - almost everywhere else is cheaper. I don’t mean NZ isn’t a great place, just that it’s houses are outrageously overpriced and this adversely affects nearly everyone. If this could be properly fixed (say another 30% drop, then stabilise long term at that level), NZ really could be best place in the world to live with affordable housing and capital being productively invested into innovative businesses providing rewarding employment

by Colin Cameron | 13th May 23, 7:31am 1683919876

Maybe by price but don't compare apples to oranges. London 2brm bedsit isn't the same as a Auckland 4brm two bathroom dble garage now is it. Also the US houses a cheaper but land tax (rates) insurance leave NZ for dead.

Even if houses were 100k people will still rent for some reason or another. Look at the houses on the west coast way cheaper but people don't shift there. Yet if getting the minimum wage it's still the same.

by Kohukohunui | 12th May 23, 1:01pm 1683853278

One factor is that post-COVID, for white collar workers proximity to major city centres matters slightly less, and space at home matters slightly more.

Lots of other reasons central suburbs are still attractive (neighbourhoods, schools, social life). But the pressure to be in easy commute distance has reduced, and conversely the appeal of working at home somewhere other than a laptop on an ironing board in the bedroom has gone up.

There is some data to support this idea in the US (https://www.economist.com/interactive/graphic-detail/2022/04/30/america…).

by Von Metternich | 12th May 23, 1:32pm 1683855157

Good point. The hard question is though, the commute isn't a blocker for that many people. The main issue is the distance from your house to the trains in Wellington at least. If it is more than ~10-15 minutes walk, it is awful for rainy and windy days.

Plenty of neighbourhoods in Upper Hutt are very nice, but other than Silverstream/Heretaunga and Kingsley Heights, there are very few nice suburbs within public transport walking distance. But since most Wellington bound workers catch public transport, the nice areas tend to be vehicle bound.

IMO it is far more a product of the public transport bound nature of nice suburbs in Wellington. Nice suburbs fall into two categories, train line (often civil servant employed) suburbs and vehicle bound suburbs (Lower Hutt Hills, Eastbourne, rural hinterlands of the Valleys etc).

by Nzdan | 12th May 23, 1:53pm 1683856386

Wairarapa has the benefit of a reliable enough commuter rail service meaning white collar workers have the option of buying further out, offsetting travel times against house prices.

I live in Masterton, and my office is in Wellington. WFH 4 days per week. Not really a "local salary".

by Retired-Poppy | 12th May 23, 11:51am 1683849105

Someone is bound to be along here shortly arguing how they're not falling as quickly now as they appreciated pre Nov-21. I suppose that means if a house rose 100% then dropped 50% over the same period, the investor is better off......🤣

by Shaft | 12th May 23, 12:00pm 1683849652

They are way up!...

On 1864!

Buy buy buy and be patient

by Retired-Poppy | 12th May 23, 12:08pm 1683850115

Ha-ha-ha :) Yes and when calculating performance "adjusting for inflation" is suddenly out the window now too!

by Colin Cameron | 12th May 23, 1:32pm 1683855176

Christchurch barely dropped in the areas I am. Timaru went up Taupo steady Oamaru up Waimate up Ashburton way up. And compared to a year ago better than money in the bank.

by Shaft | 12th May 23, 1:46pm 1683855994

ChCh is bumhole v2. Lots of upper hutt therewith a white crusadèr attitude. But seriously..

Its a popular city because the property are cheap and huge "post quakes" supply favours buyers.

To cold for most.

by The Person | 12th May 23, 1:52pm 1683856347

Yes, most of the population is in the upper north island. But chch is our second largest population centre. If feel 'too cold for most' rather undersells that fact.

by Colin Cameron | 12th May 23, 2:09pm 1683857376

Auckland is a shithole my opinion like your opinion on Christchurch. He and half stuck in traffic each way in Auckland even middle of the day. I drove last night from Chch centre to Rolleston in rush hrs traffic 20 mins. Property is cheap and alot of new builds means warmer houses. What's the difference from Auckland at 5 degrees and yes it gets frost and Chch at 0 degrees thedifference is in Chch at that temp you get a bluebird day not a cloud in the sky spectacular scenery. Auckland at 5 degrees you will get washed away.

by Ngrrk | 12th May 23, 3:17pm 1683861440

I'll 'one up' you. Both cities are are shitholes. Spent plenty of time in both. There isn't a truly great city in the whole country if we're going to be honest. NZ's strengths lie in its natural beauty but we've been doing all we can to destroy for some time now.

by Colin Cameron | 12th May 23, 5:01pm 1683867677

I have lived in both as well. Howick when strawberry fields actually was strawberry fields. And then left and went to Taupo 30 yrs ago and the same old s..t was said then ohs its so cold etc BS. Easy to warm up in the cold not cool down in the heat. Then went to Chch and by far out of Auck or Chch for standard of living and getting around way easier. And I guess the figures prove me right didn't Auck go back in population last yr while Chch go up. And if Auck prices are coming down yet Chch with all the new builds is stable. Goes to show

by Speedmax | 12th May 23, 6:38pm 1683873536

There’s a lot to be said for a warm, efficient house! And also a lot to be said for decent public transport and less road congestion

by DTRH | 12th May 23, 12:04pm 1683849877

House prices falling at a accelerating pace, the winter months will be devastating for housing market many paper profits for last few year will just disappear and many unfortunately will be in negative equity.

by IT GUY | 12th May 23, 12:55pm 1683852954

Auckland's central suburbs, which include some of the country's most expensive residential suburbs such as Herne Bay, Ponsonby, Parnell, Remuera, Epsom and St Heliers, where the HPI was down by -2.6% for the month.

These guys are the reference points, great locations, normally well renovated. They set the price then it ripples outwards, Meadowbank cannot be worth more then Remuera etc etc. Then it ripples out of Auckland.... and finally it starts to impact Danniverke and Turangi, its always been this way the regions are last to rise and last to fall, but they always get hammered the most.

The one trend I have seen is that nice modern single level homes for 70-80year olds, in locations like snells beach, warkworth (not quite commutable) that are still capable are holding their price, there is a big demand from downsizers with cash and demographics etc....

by bw | 12th May 23, 1:09pm 1683853754

Snells? Sounds good, until you need to go to outpatients or chemo once a week or so. And that's if you still have a driver's licence to get anywhere at all.

by IT GUY | 12th May 23, 1:32pm 1683855157

I agree but not everyone can afford OR wants to live close to North shore hospital etc, its why those suburbs above are worth so much THEY ARE IN AUCKLAND central healt coverage, uni hospital at grafton , arguably the best in NZ.

by The Person | 12th May 23, 1:02pm 1683853364

Why are house prices proving to be so resilient?

Prices still above the pandemic policy induced mad take off, and even if we get back there, that's to a point that was widely viewed as extremely overpriced.

by Thinker | 12th May 23, 1:13pm 1683854013

Solely cause of record low unemployment. As long as unemployment stays low the housing market will never crash. That goes up and interest rates stay high (whole different ball game)

by IT GUY | 12th May 23, 1:37pm 1683855428

They are falling faster then the irish crash, people are grieving the paper loss and dont want to accept the offer before them, 25 % falls in WGTN and AKL are not resilient they are a DISASTER if you bought at the top.

I hope you did not expect that this would be all over in 18 months..... these corrections average about 6 years internationally. We are beating all previous examples timewise.... we do crashes well here.

The Spruikers want you to beleive that things are not falling or slowed down, what part of slowed down is a monthly drop of 2.6% on the best suburbs in NZ?

by The Person | 12th May 23, 1:49pm 1683856181

so bubbles 'popping' are always slower on the way down than on the way up? e.g. the HPI graph in the article. I thought it was supposed to be the opposite?

Perhaps we just need to zoom out the scale more?

by malamah | 12th May 23, 4:00pm 1683864017

Nominal prices, probably. But real prices tell a better story as they are more indicative of what that amount of money is really worth. If property doubles in price, but so do wages and/or CPI then nominal prices look great but really haven't gone anywhere. If prices halve and incomes wages and/or CPI double, then damn.

There are real graphs around, seems to be similar pace in both directions.

by Shaft | 12th May 23, 2:14pm 1683857657

Depends where your focussing!

Areas with low stock, low listings, desireable and more buyers are holding ok.

You need to look in more detail. eg -at subdivision level not town or city level!

Compare areas v listings v age of listings v price drops data.

by Colin Cameron | 12th May 23, 1:34pm 1683855271

Strange when ever interest or the media want alot of click bait they run a story about property either up down scum landlords tenants getting ripped off. This guarantees plenty of comments

by Greg Ninness | 12th May 23, 5:00pm 1683867638

No. The figures are published monthly so we report them monthly. It's not rocket science.

by DitchSkipper | 12th May 23, 2:31pm 1683858679

It's still too early to tell how far the prices will fall. Plenty of people still to come off those extremely low fixed rates and move to a much higher rate, burn through any savings and then doggy paddle for a few months to keep their head above water. That's when the tough decisions will be made as to selling up or in nasty cases, the bank makes that decision for you. A very, very long way to go yet.

by albinodog | 12th May 23, 3:08pm 1683860924

If we get to -30% from peak you'll need to gain 43% to breakeven

https://www.arborinvestmentplanner.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/previ…

by Piggy | 12th May 23, 9:29pm 1683883750

Hold up!! It is increasing in Welly city

by The_Golem | 13th May 23, 9:14am 1683926059

And the property speculation rollercoaster will continue, underpinned by the tax structure, and strategy and planning based in inappropriate imported models and doctrine that tries to drive artificial and often inappropriate change.

Those forces are in tension with the chronic infrastructure neglect that's been at least partly caused by the hugely costly planning constraints that enshrine process as more important than an actual result - and that government themselves have devised.

Being hoist by your own petard is one thing, but specifically designing it to do so is very hard to watch.

What a mess.