Mixed messages in June's REINZ sales figures

Property / news

Housing sales up and down in June, prices up slightly, fewer vendors and buyers remain hesitant

13th Jul 23, 9:00am by Greg Ninness

The latest sales data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) delivers mixed messages, with sales volumes declining further in June but prices rising slightly.

The REINZ recorded 5629 residential property sales nationally in June, down 4.1% compared to May, suggesting market activity remains at a low ebb.

Sales volumes usually decline from May to June, so in that respect the June decline was not unusual. Although June's sales were up 14.6% compared to June last year, they were still down 9.0% compared to pre-pandemic levels in June 2019.

The national median selling price was $780,000 in June, unchanged from May, but down 8.2% compared to June last year.

However the REINZ House Price Index (HPI), which adjusts for differences in the mix of properties sold each month, was up 0.4% nationally in June compared to May.

The regional HPI figures were evenly split. Six regions (Northland, Auckland, Bay of Plenty, Wellington, Tasman/Nelson/Marlborough/West Coast and Southland) posted rises in June compared to May, and six regions (Waikato, Gisborne/Hawke's Bay, Manawatu/Whanganui, Taranaki, Canterbury and Otago) recorded declines. (See the table below for the full regional figures).

There was also less stock on the market, with a total of 24,676 residential properties available for sale at the end of June. That's down 7.5% compared to May, and down 6.1% compared to June last year.

New listings were also down, with 6218 received in June. That's down 15.5% compared to May, and down 21.2% compared to June last year, suggesting vendors remain hesitant about selling.

"Salespeople across the country are reporting increased first home buyer activity at open homes with the easing of LVR [loan-to-value ratio] restrictions that came into effect on June 1, bringing more people out looking," REINZ Chief Executive Jen Baird said.

"Although activity has increased, caution remains as interest rates, a pending election and further strain caused by the cost of living tempers putting pen to paper.

"In the three months ending June 2023, 15,934 sales have occurred, a 1.2% increase year-on-year.

"A lack of listings and the challenge of navigating the current economic climate are putting pressure on the market.

"Commentators say there are harder times ahead, but sales are still happening, people are still making choices about where and how they live and these choices necessitate a property transaction," she said.

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

Volumes sold - REINZ

Select chart tabs

Source: REINZ

Median price - REINZ

Select chart tabs

Source: REINZ

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172 Comments

by Averageman | 13th Jul 23, 9:02am 1689195733

Lump trading conditions but overall HPI up slightly. Wow.

by Dgm | 13th Jul 23, 9:10am 1689196209

Lest not forget all the spruiking that took place after the last MPC, with calls that the ocr will drop by the end of the year.. all that talk was put to rest yesterday..

by rjn1 | 13th Jul 23, 9:25am 1689197153

Nothing was put to rest yesterday. Yesterday was exactly as signalled previously. You and I must read different information.

by Dgm | 13th Jul 23, 9:42am 1689198177

Isn't that obvious...

by rjn1 | 13th Jul 23, 10:20am 1689200410

What makes you think talk of easing by the end of the year was put to rest yesterday? RBNZ are not going to come waving a big white flag at this stage. Kind of like when they all said rates would remain low for several years. You have to look through the posturing.

by Dgm | 13th Jul 23, 11:51am 1689205866

Maybe the article just released regarding the fruit and vegetable prices will make you rethink..

by JimboJones | 13th Jul 23, 1:39pm 1689212361

I doubt it, the RBNZ would have already known that fruit and vege prices would be high this quarter.

Personally I think the next CPI will be a shocker (maybe even over 7%) but once we get some normal growing seasons food inflation could actually go negative. The fuel tax is also a one off. So the CPI after the next one could be much lower. But that is a long time away...

by rjn1 | 13th Jul 23, 6:32pm 1689229936

Not at all. Only data that materially differ from what I expect make me rethink. USD will continue to depreciate from here. Employers have already tightened up on CPI pass-through, so shocks like fuel excise reinstatement and fruit and vege will have a negligible effect on wages. We are well-and-truely in contractionary territory and all RBNZ need to do is give the perception that they'll stay the course from here. The job is essentially done.

by Yvil | 13th Jul 23, 1:08pm 1689210486

I thought you promised to drop the "spruicking" talk, dgm?

by Dgm | 13th Jul 23, 1:25pm 1689211525

Does the cap suit you?

by Hawkes Bay | 13th Jul 23, 9:04am 1689195869

Property Brokers Realty Still Frantically Advertising on the Radio here in Hawkes Bay for Salespeople to Join.

Thats all I need to follow where things are going.

by Chairman Moa | 13th Jul 23, 10:41am 1689201660

Timmy is getting desperate, might be just a ploy..

by General Comment | 13th Jul 23, 11:45am 1689205531

Play a game with their jingle at the end of the ad: try to change station before the word "country" is finished.

by DDDDebt | 13th Jul 23, 9:13am 1689196393

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4574170-what-goes-up-comes-down-bubble…

It's always sticky on the downside

There's a well-worn psychological path in the collapse of bubbles. This path more or less tracks the Kubler-Ross phases of denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance, though the momentum of speculative frenzy demands extended displays of hubris and over-confidence, i.e., the first wobble "must be the bottom."

There's also repeated spikes of false hope that "the bottom is in" and the bubble is starting to reflate.

This pattern repeats until the speculative fever finally breaks and all those betting on a resumption of the bubble mania finally give up.

So I guess the debate will soon become whether we are retracing covid bubble or previous

by nguturoa | 13th Jul 23, 9:08am 1689196096

The thing to note is less stock on the market as greedy vendors are waiting and watching in hope that they might get a better price if they wait

But interest rates on the up and cost of living eating into the savings of the people, the more they wait, the less they will get.

If vendors sell now or sold 3 months ago they earn more interest on that money than waiting and will sell for less at a later stage.

Wait for a glut of properties to come into the market this spring. Buyers will be able to cherry pick at a price they want.

by Prickle | 13th Jul 23, 4:34pm 1689222876

Not necessarily “greedy” vendors. Nobody wants to sell for a loss.

by Jamin | 13th Jul 23, 6:33pm 1689230000

Or they could wait for 10 years and likely get a much higher price with the mortgage much reduced.

To me it makes no sense to sell in a depressed market.

by HughJorgan | 13th Jul 23, 10:05pm 1689242753

It’s not depressed, it is being reset.

Depressed suggests it will bounce back. It won’t.

by Toye | 13th Jul 23, 9:09am 1689196163

Oh look, the media manufactured dead cat bounce.

by Pragmatist | 13th Jul 23, 9:24am 1689197096

Oh look, a dgm valiantly ignoring figures that don't suit his narrative.

by Toye | 13th Jul 23, 9:27am 1689197242

Because all crashes are straight down with no little recoveries in-between, right?

Mega mortgage cliff coming later this year, prices will keep falling.

by Pragmatist | 13th Jul 23, 9:41am 1689198101

Not seeing it, we are at or very near the top of the mortgage rate increases, the market isn't being flooded with houses for sale, the only thing that is slightly supporting your narriative is the increase in mortgage arrears, but its not at a significant level historically.

by Rampart | 13th Jul 23, 10:27am 1689200846

There’s a huge portion of low interest mortgages still in circulation, also factor in a the people that have refinanced their mortgages are in the early days of meeting their payment obligations. You can only sell so many toys.

by Pa1nter | 13th Jul 23, 10:31am 1689201119

There’s a huge portion of low interest mortgages still in circulation

There may be, but what's the value of these mortgages?

And that's the issue, some of y'all see this 'mega mortgage cliff, as if most mortgages are based on purchasing in the last 2-3 years. When the reality is there's a spectrum of debt on property, with a few that'll be costing owners a lot more, but most with far less exposure.

So probably less 'mega mortgage cliff's, or some sort of metaphor involving a tsunami, and instead probably more of a paddling pool.

by Pragmatist | 13th Jul 23, 10:54am 1689202485

Meanwhile there are wage rises rampant, inflation is waning, and we are most likely entering a recession.

Have noticed at work that we are starting to see reps from companies we haven't dealt with in a while drop in looking for work again, and existing suppliers following up on quotes a lot more.

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jul 23, 10:46am 1689202001

Pragmatist, interest.co membership consists of a random cross section of society. One only has to look at where the upvotes are leaning to get an idea of how little confidence there is in house ownership at the current price point.

Que Pa1nter with the narrative interest.co is saturated with Doomers - LOL!

by Pragmatist | 13th Jul 23, 10:51am 1689202294

Random? lol, not even close to random. If the commentors on here were truely a fair random representation of the general NZ populace then the amount of mentions TOP gets on here would put paid to all the wasted vote comments, they'd be a shoo in with a double digit party vote percentage.

Pa1nter is not wrong.

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jul 23, 10:56am 1689202592

I think you're overstating not only your presence but the numbers that share your belief.

by Pragmatist | 13th Jul 23, 11:10am 1689203452

and Vice versa.

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jul 23, 11:13am 1689203614

If it helps, keep telling yourself that :)

by Pa1nter | 13th Jul 23, 11:34am 1689204860

Thisd be a random cross section of society if it were 1860s migrants.

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jul 23, 11:41am 1689205295

Its rigged goddammit - its rigged!

Its high time you just admit that all you're armed with is hearsay.

by Pa1nter | 13th Jul 23, 11:51am 1689205905

Whatever it is it seems to have you fairly aroused.

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jul 23, 1:05pm 1689210331

LOL! - You can talk!

Hearsay it is then.....#fullofcrap

by Yvil | 13th Jul 23, 1:17pm 1689211031

It's unfortunate that many commentators on housing issues behave just like low class soccer fans, shouting in favour of their team, being house prices up/down with hardly any regards to what is actually happening on the field. It's really unhelpful in being able to assess neutrally what is actually happening.

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jul 23, 2:05pm 1689213928

Yvil, are things really this boring for you in Bali? Honestly, this is more robust back and forth debate than anything else. Like others here have already commented - practice what you preach.

by Fegus Woodward | 13th Jul 23, 9:25pm 1689240331

Totally agree - the fact this guy bailed for 2 years in shame only to show back up when the wind blew his direction. i lean bearish on property - but seriously the nerve.

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jul 23, 10:12pm 1689243149

Fergus, your comment is factually wrong. Other than heavy COVID related work commitments, there was no shame involved in my absence whatsoever. It was a particularly difficult time and I guess sometimes there is simply bigger priorities (like saving lives) than posting here on the interest.co forum. I hope this helps put your mind at ease.

I've been labeled a coward, gutless you name it but your "but seriously the nerve" - priceless :)

by Fegus Woodward | 14th Jul 23, 11:48am 1689292128

Jesus - you work for the government dont you. Double shame.

by rastus1 | 13th Jul 23, 11:31am 1689204684

Why would you expect Int.co to be a fair random representation of the general NZ populace?

TOP has only featured in more recent times. Their policies are smart and smart people read Int.co.

Those that attack TOP policies are do so from a me me me perspective, not from the wider good approach.

That is why I support TOP. Personally their polices would hurt me. But it's not all about me.

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jul 23, 11:39am 1689205179

For all members of the public there is no selection process involved in obtaining a username here. None of you has come up with any proof membership is heavily biased - beyond hearsay.

Sorry if this fact fails to tickle your narrative.

by mfd | 13th Jul 23, 11:40am 1689205219

The selection process is 'are you interested in economic news stories'. This is quite a stringent test.

There is absolutely no way that Interest readers or commenters are representative of the population of NZ.

by Pa1nter | 13th Jul 23, 11:43am 1689205394

Yep, it's like saying a Yoga class is a random cross section of society.

Interest.nz users seem to be mostly middle class white males. That's not random.

by Pragmatist | 13th Jul 23, 11:57am 1689206261

And that is the selection process for the readers, there yet another selection process for the commentors and upvoters. People with far too much time on their hands might be one factor. :)

by Simon | 13th Jul 23, 12:42pm 1689208961

Agree.

Anyone who's does uni stats knows how in limportant (and hard) it is to get a sample representative of the whole.

by Pragmatist | 13th Jul 23, 11:55am 1689206130

I don't, and it isn't

by ChrisOfNoFame | 13th Jul 23, 11:56am 1689206169

re ... "Pragmatist, interest.co membership consists of a random cross section of society."

A random cross section of society? Seriously?

Best statistical laugh-out-loud moment this week and there's been some absolute howlers this week.

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jul 23, 12:23pm 1689207836

Whos opinion is prevented from being heard on this public forum? Can your opinion step beyond the realms of hearsay?

by mfd | 13th Jul 23, 12:21pm 1689207682

Open access is not sufficient to get a representative population. Anyone is free to go and climb Mount Cook, but if you look at those who actually do it you will find they are not representative of the population as a whole.

by mfd | 13th Jul 23, 12:41pm 1689208885

More generally - the onus is on those who claim to have a representative sample to convince everyone else this is the case. In my world there is never an assumption that a sample is fair - you have to work hard to acquire such a sample or to prove that you have one.

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jul 23, 1:40pm 1689212409

mfd, yours is the best unbiased response thus far. I think those who argue this forum is saturated with Doomers seem do do so out of desperation. Its like they're overwhelmed in the face of what they interpret as being "negative" opinion of a select few. These negative opinions could easily present positive life changing opportunities and experiences to others.

by Simon | 13th Jul 23, 12:44pm 1689209045

Glad to have a fellow commentator here that's savy with at least stats 101

by Juzz | 13th Jul 23, 12:05pm 1689206722

The arrears seem to be trending upwards. Also note that not only the percentage of mortgages in arrears grew, but a group of borrowers whose nominal values are significantly higher, historically, are also the ones who are more affected by the increasing interest rates.

by Pragmatist | 13th Jul 23, 12:18pm 1689207537

Who are a very small number of households, compared to the rest.

by Juzz | 13th Jul 23, 1:31pm 1689211863

Yes, a small group compared to the 2 million or so dwellings in NZ. However, is a big group when you compare them to those who will be willing and able to purchase.

by Caughtinthemiddle | 13th Jul 23, 1:09pm 1689210570

Perhaps there is a middle ground to consider. The OCR stays over 5% for the medium term and over that period we get a change in government. Outside social reasons (schools, death, marriage, divorce, job) those are likely to be the two largest factors which influence a decision to enter their property market. I see a 12 month period when we see an improvement in confidence on the back drop of expensive credit. More people will buy and sell as there will be a small amount of pent up demand. Sale volumes will rise a little but prices will stagnate in keeping with the cost of borrowing.

by Toye | 13th Jul 23, 3:30pm 1689219004

Are we then, got a source? Because for some that have done their research, the first cliff is Sep - Dec this year and shocks will be going through to the end of 2024. We are just getting started. https://aucklandpropertyrealitycheck.substack.com/p/auckland-wellington…

by Cote d'Azur | 13th Jul 23, 10:08am 1689199680

Good news for hard working multiple property owners - back on an upward trend!

by mfd | 13th Jul 23, 9:41am 1689198098

I'm a hard working property owner, why is this good news for me? At best I think it's irrelevant.

Did you mean to say 'multiple property owners'? They are the main cohort that benefit from rising house prices.

by 21Trillion | 14th Jul 23, 9:15am 1689282957

nothing like holding a basic human right over those in a lower wealth position than yourself, kudos to your hard work!

by Nzdan | 13th Jul 23, 9:36am 1689197776

Up 0.4%. That's margin of error stuff, like $3k on the median of $780k.

But I suppose when the monthly falls have been 1 - 2% it's a huge swing in the other direction, and a ray of hope in dark times.

by Harvey W | 13th Jul 23, 9:38am 1689197916

Yo ho ho and up she rises....

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jul 23, 11:02am 1689202971

Harvey, UM - NO.

by Harvey W | 13th Jul 23, 11:01am 1689202911

It's now. Prices have bottomed. Buy now. Be one of the smart ones that bought in 2023.

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jul 23, 3:22pm 1689218562

Like I've said here before, we are firmly in a down trend and it would be foolish to expect that every month would show a decline from the previous. Is this trumped up price floor sustainable - highly unlikely. I already own my home free of debt, I see no need for owning multiple properties so falling prices won't keep me awake. Saving FHB's should start making lowball offers from early 2024. Those who followed your advice and bought in 2019 - 2021 are likely suffering increased mortgage stress along with increased insurance, rates, you name it. Not a nice trap to find oneself in. The fallout from this episode of greed is only just beginning.

by Harvey W | 13th Jul 23, 12:33pm 1689208393

Nope. The problem is house replacement cost. Successive govt have made it very expensive to provide both land and dwellings. There will have to be an equilibrium between cost to build and selling prices, and it means prices will rise, starting this year.

by sheriff_of_nothing | 13th Jul 23, 1:59pm 1689213550

Perhaps the land value just goes down to compensate? Especially in places like Auckland where land has typically made up a greater % of the cost of an average house.

It would be interesting to see what's happening with the value of bare sections. I haven't seen this data reported anywhere though.

by HughJorgan | 13th Jul 23, 3:02pm 1689217359

Land value won’t come under the same pressure as it is often help by those with little debt and/or has income potential without being redeveloped (existing buildings).

Also, land value can only drop so far. Most feasibilities with a zero land value still don’t stack up.

Building costs need to come down or there are going to be lost of people sitting around next year.

by Averageman | 13th Jul 23, 3:41pm 1689219704

Is the GFC was anything to go by the tradie's workforce will either retire to their bach, or relocate to building work in Aussie. None will be sitting around, its not in their nature.

by NZGecko | 13th Jul 23, 9:43am 1689198191

Those poor sops, who get spruiked by the discredited Oneroof squawkers like Tone the Comb, etc and buy into the "this return to normal" phase of this still unfolding crash, will lose all of their cash in the next year or two.

After this RETURN TO NORMAL..... she is a long way down.....

Boom / Bust Chart...Where do you think we are on the curve... (activerain.com)

Don't buy until we see DTI of 3 to 6x. Pay Higher and you are: The Greater Fool.

Simple.

by Pragmatist | 13th Jul 23, 9:43am 1689198234

Don't buy until we see DTI of 3 to 6x.

Easiest way to get there, is get a real job that pays well. :)

by Pa1nter | 13th Jul 23, 10:34am 1689201267

LOL

Isn't it quicker and more effective to have the economy provide me a more productive job and much cheaper houses automatically?

by Pragmatist | 13th Jul 23, 10:56am 1689202578

How would "the economy" do that exactly?

by Pa1nter | 13th Jul 23, 11:36am 1689204981

Don't sully the dream by getting specific.

by Pragmatist | 13th Jul 23, 11:58am 1689206306

by huttman | 13th Jul 23, 11:04am 1689203087

so true. that's how I did it

by bw | 13th Jul 23, 9:54am 1689198857

But that graph you link is way too old to be relevant today. It's from 2007 and......ah...now I see.......

by NZGecko | 13th Jul 23, 10:25am 1689200738

Yes good spotting, are on the edge of another 2007........but worse this time, with a much bigger bubble (only hist out a little air, still a slobby bubble) and MUCH MUCH MORE Dangerous, incendiary Debt.

by upquark | 13th Jul 23, 10:51am 1689202293

Long term real house price trend puts the 2007/8 crash into perspective. Note also that no 'real' change in house prices between 1975 and 2002.

by chris14679 | 13th Jul 23, 11:40am 1689205221

DON'T FORGET TO ALLOW FOR INFLATION!

The "2007" chart linked above shows a bubble scenario with inflation removed. The NZ dollar graph will look way different. If the graphs in this article were corrected for inflation they would not look the same.

The real reason the NZ government is printing money and giving it away like there's no tomorrow is because they know the only way out of this mess is to devalue the NZ dollar. By devaluing the NZ dollar, house prices can come down without the house price in NZD actually changing. MORTGAGES GET DEVALUED TOO at the same rate as house prices, people don't get into negative equity and have the illusion that their houses are still worth the same. Interest rates could get crazy though. Hyperinflation is a risk.

I don't see NZ house prices in NZ dollars actually changing much from here. BUT the graph of NZ house prices PRICED IN GOLD will look exactly like the "2007" bubble graph linked above. What we are going to see is an NZ dollar price crash so the house price crash will be mostly invisible to most people due to pricing houses in NZ dollars.

Even the NZ dollar price crash will be partly hidden because NZ dollar is priced in other currencies which (to some extent) will all be devalued too.

If you want to see what's really going on then you need to correct all the graphs above for the true rate of inflation. The easiest way to do that is to price everything in gold. A graph of house prices (or anything) in NZ dollars is completely meaningless because the value of the NZ dollar is changing more than the value of the house.

by bw | 13th Jul 23, 9:44am 1689198288

One poster noted a few days back that "If you think it's dead, shoot it one last time to make sure" and that, is what the RBNZ failed to do in May. Perhaps we are about to see what a mistake that was, as the Property Market resumes its Devine right to always go up and with that continue the decline of the debt-soaked New Zealand standard of living.

by Advisor | 13th Jul 23, 10:07am 1689199646

I agree. Aussie, US and UK are spending large out of their public purse to reindustrialise their economies, while NZ reaffirms bipartisan support to preserve the housing Ponzi at all costs.

I see the brain drain out of NZ picking up pace in the years to come. Don't let the government fool you into believing the net positive migration is a good news story for our economy.

Chefs, deck hands, builder's labourers, cafe managers, retail supervisors and farm workers took the top spots in the 12 months to June 23 on number of work visas by occupation.

by Jesse1 | 13th Jul 23, 11:16am 1689203799

I have a very smart friend who works for the government in economic development. He works very hard but is always broke because he doesn't get paid much contrary to the rhetoric by the National party. He's just been on a trip to Sydney where all the Kiwis he met were asking him why he is still in NZ when he could earn double over there (yes in a similar government job). I've lived in Sydney and am encouraging him to go and I am in favour of all young Kiwis to got to Australia. NZ doesn't deserve them.

This country doesn't care one bit for young people. We have lower incomes and houses prices should be lower too but they aren't. The most important thing in NZ is to ensure Mum and Dad investors "get ahead" and stuff everyone else. National will only make this situation worse.

by Advisor | 13th Jul 23, 11:32am 1689204751

Absolutely right. Every time we come close to a market correction event that could readjust house prices and living costs to the average Kiwi's purchasing power, authorities intervene with mass migration and stimulus (both fiscal and monetary).

This pivot away from exports and investments towards household and government consumption is not going to end well. The writing is on the wall with cost of essentials still rising fast. Politicians choosing to ignore it completely won't stop until they turn NZ into the next South Africa and jump ship.

by Prickle | 13th Jul 23, 6:00pm 1689228009

Average kiwi can afford to buy in the provinces. All over the world, houses in major cities are beyond the reach of the average punter.

by Yvil | 13th Jul 23, 1:22pm 1689211377

I have a very smart friend who works for the government in economic development. He works very hard but is always broke

Perhaps he's not that smart after all?

by Jesse1 | 13th Jul 23, 1:41pm 1689212482

Please do explain why you think that in further detail Yvil. I don't see how anything I've said could suggest he isn't smart so please enlighten me.

by Pragmatist | 13th Jul 23, 1:48pm 1689212909

If he's smart why hasn't he figured out how to either earn more, or live within his means and build a reserve fund?

by Jesse1 | 13th Jul 23, 2:03pm 1689213809

You don't always move to Australia as soon as you graduate, most people gain some experience in NZ first and student loan interest gets expensive while overseas. He does live within him means but with his NZ govt income and cost of living here there isn't much left. He's very frugal actually and does save some but nothing like he would if he was in Australia.

Again nothing here to suggest he isn't smart.

by Pragmatist | 13th Jul 23, 3:00pm 1689217230

We must have different interpretatiosn of "he's constantly broke". What you said above does not marry up with what you said earlier.

by Jesse1 | 14th Jul 23, 7:01am 1689274878

Ok some people may hear 'constantly broke' and think they have to go begging on the street of something. I'm not talking anything close to that.

by Yvil | 13th Jul 23, 3:08pm 1689217725

Jesse, your friend works in the field dealing with money, yet you say he's always broke. So he may not be so "smart" dealing with money after all. Can you now see the correlation?

by Jesse1 | 13th Jul 23, 3:29pm 1689218948

Working in economic development for the government isn't dealing with money. It's not banking and finance. Maybe you're the not so smart one.

by Yvil | 13th Jul 23, 7:52pm 1689234733

Sorry if I hurt your feelings Jesse.

Still: "Economics: the branch of knowledge concerned with production, consumption and the transfer of wealth"

"Wealth: an abundance of possession or money"

by Jesse1 | 14th Jul 23, 6:54am 1689274494

Haha no hurt feelings here Yvil. You've completely missed my point and gone into a silly tangent so this is a waste of time.

by HouseMouse | 13th Jul 23, 9:27pm 1689240474

For Yvil, smart = financially successful.

For Yvil, anyone who works in a job (or have a business) that doesn’t pay top top $ isn’t ‘smart’. So we can count out a large chunk of the population, including all the people who contribute to the public good (teachers, nurses, doctors, police, academics etc etc). Oh, I guess we can also count out many highly talented artists, musician etc.

He has a very narrow and materialistic view of what ‘smart’ and ‘success’ means.

by danicriss | 14th Jul 23, 8:22am 1689279737

Some commentators on this site (usu dwelling in the same industry) equate smarts with making lots of moneys

Also, it's important to note that smart people have it all figured out and are successful in all areas of life because, you know, Michael Jordan never missed a shot and all those analogies

The fact that you can't see your friend isn't smart but some random guy on the Internet has figured it out also says a lot about you and nothing about them. We all need a little more certainty and a tad more judgement in our lives, that's what real progress is made of. Curiosity and understanding are for silly people like your friend, may he stay forever broke as a token to the greatness of the smart people around us. Because, if no-one's stupid like your friend, whom would they have to compare favourably to?

by Jesse1 | 14th Jul 23, 7:15am 1689275744

I have a friend. Works for the government. Lives frugally. After basic living costs and student loan payments there isn't much left. And this makes him stupid? Then you are implying that I'm stupid for not seeing that my friend is stupid? WTF? No wonder this site ends up with just the same people commentating everyday.

by 26@Main | 14th Jul 23, 3:05pm 1689303945

I think a /sarc tag applies to dc's post, hope so anyway.

by danicriss | 14th Jul 23, 7:48pm 1689320924

Absolutely, sorry if you read it literally, didn't want to hurt anyone's feelings

by K.W. | 13th Jul 23, 5:32pm 1689226374

The only country more obsessed with property than NZ is Australia (and maybe Canada). Over in Australia investors still have the benefit of interest tax deductibility, depreciation, a 50% discount on capital gains taxes and a 6 year CGT exemption for renting out your family home, and .... get this. ... you can still offset rental property losses against your personal income.

And despite all this, Australia still manages to offer a better standard of living to its citizens. So maybe property investors aren't the problem and demonising them is not the solution?

by gnx | 14th Jul 23, 4:19am 1689265151

Well let’s see how well it works out for them

https://www.facebook.com/reel/321492716870685?fs=e&s=TIeQ9V&mibextid=nL…

by CN - new | 14th Jul 23, 12:55pm 1689296123

There was a news report of a leveraged owner occupier in Brisbane, Australia who came under cashflow stress and chose to self harm and damage the property at the same time. Unfortunately more leveraged owners under cashflow stress will choose to self harm.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 13th Jul 23, 12:02pm 1689206556

Property prices ain't gonna 'return to the good ol days' for 20-30 years - possibly longer.

Why? MDRS, NPS-UD and I expect even more intensification as people get real hot as the planet continues to warm.

Think I'm wrong? Prove me wrong. No one has yet.

by General Comment | 13th Jul 23, 1:56pm 1689213408

Think I'm wrong? Prove me wrong. No one has yet.

You keep asking people to disprove a prediction, which is an impossible thing to do without the passage of time defined by the prediction itself.

Leave the line out, and your point still remains.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 13th Jul 23, 3:21pm 1689218472

I have already proved my "prediction" by referencing the flatline in the REINZ graphs of medium prices between 2016 when the new Unitary Plan came out and 2020 when RBNZ inspired madness caused one of the biggest property bubbles the world has ever seen.

It is not a prediction. It is most likely a fact. I will not leave the line out. Facts matter.

But people still believe property prices will return to the good old days and post comments that are likely to mislead?

Are they stupid? Or are they charlatans?

by General Comment | 13th Jul 23, 4:13pm 1689221596

Maybe I'm reading your posts wrong (it happens, I'm fallible), but it seems to me what you're showing is the effect of the rules on the past few years, and extending that into the future, making the assumption this effect will hold true.

Which is what property spruikers did with price predictions, and they were right for so long, until they so demonstrably weren't.

I don't think anyone is going to seriously try and challenge an unknown by offering another unknown.

by HouseMouse | 13th Jul 23, 9:31pm 1689240698

MDRS is gone-burger if a Nat / Act government is formed, which is more likely than not.

by DTRH | 13th Jul 23, 9:51am 1689198714

Take a breath before next downward tumble

by Flying high | 13th Jul 23, 10:16am 1689200203

Auckland is up 2.8 percent over 5 YEARS. WOW! Less than half percent every year is not worth the risk.

by mfd | 13th Jul 23, 10:31am 1689201111

The 5 year column is CAGR - average return per year rather than total over the 5 years.

Still very anaemic for an asset that barely supports itself through rents (or at current mortgage rates, likely bleeds cash).

by Flying high | 13th Jul 23, 10:55am 1689202514

You are kidding!

Those are rock solid returns for everywhere else

Some are over 10 percent pa. Southland up 75 percent over that time

by mfd | 13th Jul 23, 11:18am 1689203916

Yes, it's crazy - you can check the graphs in here, and the table shows the * in the 5 year column signifies 'compound growth rate'.

https://www.reinz.co.nz/libraryviewer?ResourceID=581

Southland index value from ~2200 in 2017 up to ~4400 now.

Some will look at that and think 'let the good times roll', others will think 'what goes up dramatically can also come down dramatically'. I wonder who will be right.

by DTRH | 13th Jul 23, 12:57pm 1689209852

Compared to wages house prices are still way over valued. The people who did manage to get a mortgage over the last 3 years and now see that purchase drop around 20% will now be on the hunt for for another emergency level mortgage rate when refinancing but most will be looking at a 50% rise on monthly payments, this will create huge financial problems and finally sink housing market.

by Averageman | 13th Jul 23, 1:25pm 1689211514

Don't forget the impact of debt leverage with DTi flagged for April 24. Oh the humanity.. spec crowd will actually have to have some equity.

by Yvil | 13th Jul 23, 1:28pm 1689211712

by Flying high | 13th Jul 23, 10:16am 1689200203

Auckland is up 2.8 percent over 5 YEARS. WOW! Less than half percent every year

FH and all the people who upvoted his comment, stop embarrassing yourself with ignorant comments like these. Read and learn first! 2.8% is a yearly rise over the last 5 years, so including the steep fall of the last 18 months. To help you see clearly, 2.8% compound over 5 years is a 14.8% increase.

by Flying high | 13th Jul 23, 2:00pm 1689213658

Yvil can't you see what you are doing.

You are giving fuel to all the f'ing spruikers, by just emphasising the better returns on property. If I had realised that it is compound rate I probably would not have mentioned it, as people like Housemouse will be having kittens (apology for the analogy)

Sssshhhh please.

by Averageman | 13th Jul 23, 2:01pm 1689213664

Lets not consider further declines at an end.

Elsewhere in NZ mortgage cliff approaching, more new housing stock completing construction, inflation still on fire, 13400 existing tax generators to Australia, a number of some significant job losses announced - we received some back no doubt including more 501s aka tax leaches. Elsewhere in the World US and UK central banks indicating further interest rate rises, Chinese banking system requiring yet again a massive CCP money injection to stay afloat.

Your bias is showing.

by Yvil | 13th Jul 23, 3:12pm 1689217975

There is absolutely no biais. I simply corrected a mistake with the correct number. Simple, factual, no biais!

by Crazy Horse | 13th Jul 23, 10:37am 1689201442

A question for all ...did I hear correctly that the amount of money in bank savings accounts and term deposits was almost equal to the total mortgage book in NZ ?

If so, what will happen, is there will be further reductions in price, until such time these saved funds come out and put a deposit down for a purchase of a property BUT only IF and WHEN the numbers stack up and a gross rental on the purchase price of at least 7% to cover ALL the costs

So for the Auckland market, your $1,000,000 damp, cold sh*tbox would have to rent out at $70,000 pa or $1,345 per week .....totally ridiculous ! ..and how much of that would come from the taxpayers pocket. !

This market has been totally overblown and even though prices are dropping, they are still totally stupid

Anyway, where's TTP et al ? I'm sure they could "spin" my figures above, and bring out something positive - because this market needs it !

by ShoreThing | 13th Jul 23, 10:44am 1689201891

Maybe I'm thinking about this incorrectly, but shouldn't it be basically an identity that mortgage book equals savings accounts? If I took my savings and took out a mortgage and bought a house, that money would go into some other guys savings account. Both sides of this equation should be equal, right?

by J.C. | 13th Jul 23, 1:27pm 1689211675

A question for all ...did I hear correctly that the amount of money in bank savings accounts and term deposits was almost equal to the total mortgage book in NZ ?

The sheeple are led to believe that banks lend out deposits like an intermediary. But no. In fact, no. When banks make loans, a fictitious customer deposit is created. The bank 'pretends' the borrower has deposited the money.

by Chairman Moa | 13th Jul 23, 10:44am 1689201866

Judging by the number of posts on various NZers in Australia Facebook pages, the mass migration is about to start.

Aust Govt's new policy of making easier for kiwis to obtain Aust citizenship is another turbo charging factor!

by Averageman | 13th Jul 23, 12:03pm 1689206581

Agreed. path to being a legal Aussie is the big draw card for those thinking about it. I expect to see a very good chunk of our best and brightest youth to pack their bags and relocate their future tax paying effort to the Aussie tax jurisdiction.

by Jesse1 | 13th Jul 23, 12:17pm 1689207420

Kiwis in Australia that don't have an Australian resident spouse aren't required to pay tax on capital gains on shares and overseas properties. Once they get permanent residency this benefit goes away so it's actually best for some to not apply for residency and citizenship.

by Chairman Moa | 13th Jul 23, 2:57pm 1689217052

That is not 100% correct, there is time limit and after that you will be considered fully fledged taxpayers. I've been through this with my Tax specialist when we sold our family home in Auckland.

by K.W. | 13th Jul 23, 5:31pm 1689226297

Why just young people? Now citizenship is available, there is nothing stopping older people with families from leaving as well. Get your kids into a school where they dont spend all day doing Maori singing and dancing, learn to speak proper English, study actual Science, and are citizens by the time they graduate so they enrol in a real University and not an indigenous apology for one. If you cared at all about the education of your kids, you'd be on the next flight out.

Then there are the retirees who also now qualify for citizenship. Why would you risk getting sick in this country when its basically a death sentence, especially if you are European or Asian.

by HouseMouse | 13th Jul 23, 9:34pm 1689240895

Also oldies with kids / grandkids in Aus.

by Von Metternich | 13th Jul 23, 11:09am 1689203369

Extremely sceptical of this data.

I've noticed a very deceptive tactic being used by Real Estate agents of delaying the release of the sales price for a property if it sells below value, but immediately releasing the sales price for a property that sells for a higher price or relatively high price relative to CV. I suspect this is intentional data manipulation by the Real Estate agents to limit/weaken the data influencing pricing decisions.

Any metric which is used to inform public sentiment in a market is always bound to be manipulated. Goodhart's Law in effect.

Price Punishments will continue for Housing Spruikers until the lesson is learned.

by tulipfarmer | 13th Jul 23, 12:01pm 1689206514

I've been noticing that too.

by tuisbest | 13th Jul 23, 12:10pm 1689207009

I'm with you, VM.

You could try the following interesting exercise: Search Homes.co.nz for houses that sold for less than $150 in the past year. You'll see that Barfoot & Thomson made hundreds and hundreds of sales for the spectacular price of $0. Is that perhaps because the house sold for a 'weak' price and they realised that the algorithms ignore sales where the price is entered as $0 (with the algorithm probably assuming this was a typo)? Am I a cynic for thinking they're doing their unscrupulous utmost to try and keep the 'value' (lol) of houses as high as possible?

Desperate times call for desperate measures, I guess. Best to remember that before relying on any data provided by those with vested interests in the property market.

by NZGecko | 13th Jul 23, 12:17pm 1689207472

When its this Baaaad. "THEY JUST HAVE TO LIE"

by Yvil | 13th Jul 23, 1:33pm 1689212039

Com'on, stop being ridiculous guys. In short you're saying "if the data tells what I want (being prices to drop) I believe the data", "if the data says the opposite of what I want (prices going up) the data must be wrong". How narrow minded is that?

by Von Metternich | 13th Jul 23, 2:19pm 1689214778

It is more that you can delay release of bad data till 3 months after the sale where it blends into the wider trend rather than the month by month trend. You can sort of infer this by the significance of the drops in the 3 to 6 month range vs the month by month.

by Yvil | 13th Jul 23, 3:18pm 1689218296

If say some sales were delayed to make a month look better, it just means that the following month will look worse by the same amount. Just think about it.

by Von Metternich | 13th Jul 23, 4:01pm 1689220910

Except what matters in the minds of the people looking for a win is the month on month. Human beings do not understand geometric or compounding numbers intuitively.

by Yvil | 13th Jul 23, 7:47pm 1689234472

Sure, you're right, when the numbers say what you don't believe, the stats are wrong. Good luck to you, making decisions based upon these one eyed assumptions.

by Von Metternich | 14th Jul 23, 10:44am 1689288243

It is the same logic that influences massaging jobs data with 'seasonal adjustments' where the month by month data is often out of sync with the wider trends. Same reason that people don't believe Chinese GDP data and use Rail Volume, Electricity generation volume and so on.

by tuisbest | 13th Jul 23, 9:54pm 1689242060

In short you're saying "if the data tells what I want (being prices to drop) I believe the data", "if the data says the opposite of what I want (prices going up) the data must be wrong". How narrow minded is that?

I'm saying there's an excellent reason why researchers are supposed to declare any conflict of interest when publishing research. Also, only a fool would lap up research published by those with vested interests.

For example, if Kelogg's funds and publishes mountains of research articles 'proving' that 'breakfast is the most important meal of the day', then you should believe it at your own risk. Duh. (See https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2016/nov/28/breakfast-health-a… for more info.)

I work with relatively large datasets every day and can assure you that having a vested interest in something changes the way you think about the data and probably how you analyze it, if perhaps only subconsciously. You might not intend to lie about the results, yet fail to see something pretty obvious due to your biased view and end up publishing rubbish.

People see what they want to see. It's human nature. And marketers will try to show you what they want you to see. That is the nature of marketing.

by Nzdan | 13th Jul 23, 4:26pm 1689222406

When I search for $150k and below I get no results?

by tuisbest | 13th Jul 23, 9:23pm 1689240238

Are you searching for Sold houses? Try to zoom into on an area over Auckland, as B&T sells more houses there than in the wop-wops.

Try this to see many: https://homes.co.nz/map?lat=-36.84759&lng=174.77632&zoom=11.41&filter=t…; (Although I find this to load very slowly and you might even have to refresh if it times out - probably because there are so many houses to draw on the map.)

by CN - new | 13th Jul 23, 5:42pm 1689226937

"You'll see that Barfoot & Thomson made hundreds and hundreds of sales for the spectacular price of $0."

Interesting. Here are a few such examples that I just stumbled upon.

i) March 2023 - https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/mount-roskill/6-marshall-laing-ave…

ii) April 2023 - https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/new-windsor/24-trevola-street/yyXNQ

iii) May 2023 - https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/sandringham/30-halesowen-avenue/BE…

iv) May 2023 - https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/mount-eden/4-35-esplanade-road/DX5…

v) June 2023 - https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/wesley/295-mount-albert-road/9kWb

Anyone got any other examples?

1) Why are they recorded at zero? are these not yet settled? are these conditional sales? long term settlement period? other contract terms not yet met such as subject to financing, subject to their existing house being sold?

2) How does that impact the REINZ house price index?

by K.W. | 13th Jul 23, 5:41pm 1689226887

Probably because of this

30 Halesowen Avenue

5 Bed | 2 Bath

CV: $1,875,000

Sale Date: May 2023

Sale Price: $1,050,000

https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=675108931300088&set=a.4533751801401…

by CN - new | 13th Jul 23, 6:03pm 1689228189

Here are some more:

1) April 2023: https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/hillsborough/18-stephen-lysnar-pla…

2) April 2023 - https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/blockhouse-bay/36-endeavour-street…

3) May 2023 - https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/blockhouse-bay/85-lynbrooke-avenue…

4) May 2023 - https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/te-atatu-south/122-tiroroa-avenue/…

5) May 2023 - https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/massey/25-triangle-road/DgrZv

6) June 2023 - https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/blockhouse-bay/75-lynbrooke-avenue…

7) July 2023 - https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/mount-roskill/5-battersby-avenue/8…

by CN - new | 13th Jul 23, 6:07pm 1689228425

This place sold in Dec 2022. Publicly disclosed sale price is TBC. Long settlement? Change of policy by B&T of reporting numbers?

https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/mount-eden/2-1-rahiri-road/E19x

by tuisbest | 13th Jul 23, 9:25pm 1689240347

Who knows. I can deal better with 'TBC' than with '$0', though, as there might at least be valid reasons for the 'TBC'.

by JimboJones | 13th Jul 23, 1:23pm 1689211390

How long could they delay it for? It would only cause a really bad month later on.

by Von Metternich | 13th Jul 23, 2:18pm 1689214705

Three months by law. So a sale made today below par won't show in the data till October.

by 26@Main | 13th Jul 23, 5:59pm 1689227991

Three months by law - can you tell me what website a sale price has to be listed on by law? Thanks.

by Pragmatist | 13th Jul 23, 7:34pm 1689233657

It gets recorded at Linz, who record all title transfers.

by Yvil | 13th Jul 23, 12:16pm 1689207387

Thanks for a balanced article. It seems the various sources who claimed the market is bottoming out were right, for now anyway. I still think there is further weakness to come in price.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 13th Jul 23, 3:32pm 1689219165

Agreed. It does look like it is bottoming. (But bottoms often look like that.) And yes - the pain has just started. Lots more to come.

by Yvil | 13th Jul 23, 1:03pm 1689210196

New listings were also down, with 6218 received in June. That's down 15.5% compared to May, and down 21.2% compared to June last year, suggesting vendors remain hesitant about selling.

What low number of listings really suggests, is that vendors are not (yet perhaps) in a tough situation where they have to sell.

by Averageman | 13th Jul 23, 1:23pm 1689211397

Also likely vendors holding on for brightline tax free sales window. Mortgage cliff coming so lets see how the new twelve months travels as those two realities fight to meet in the new middle.

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jul 23, 2:22pm 1689214939

That Brightline expiry is an interesting one. In IRD eyes, are such examples automatically absolved from paying CGT? If people are waiting for say their 5-year Brightline period to expire to dispose of property, and do so, I would have thought that still presented a case under the "intention" criteria for IRD to assess for CGT.

https://www.ird.govt.nz/property/buying-and-selling-residential-propert…

Just putting it out there.....

by Pragmatist | 13th Jul 23, 3:43pm 1689219816

Intention is only relevant at time of purchase.

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jul 23, 4:12pm 1689221523

Yes correct. There is a wealth of information in the above link that many are blissfully unaware. IRD are no doubt expecting many flippers will try selling just outside their relevant Brightline period. Even outside the Brightline, IRD can still assess the vendor for CGT.

by Pragmatist | 13th Jul 23, 4:07pm 1689221224

so what was that nonsense above about then?

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jul 23, 4:23pm 1689222222

It might seem like nonsense to you and its telling you didn't even check the information from the link before commenting. Have you considered the many ways that IRD investigators can utilize technology to establish intention?

"Nonsense" - LOL!

by Pragmatist | 13th Jul 23, 4:41pm 1689223302

Wow, look at those timestamps.. typical RP retrospective editting. :)

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jul 23, 5:30pm 1689226208

Are you still blissfully unaware? :)

by Zachary Smith | 13th Jul 23, 3:20pm 1689218400

I was talking to someone this week about house price falls and they seemed blissfully unaware even though they owned a rental property. Suddenly they looked pale when I told them about the 300k drop in 18 months. I wonder if most people are like this and it is only us here, we few, we unhappy few, who are aware of the awful truth.

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jul 23, 4:06pm 1689221170

by Zachary Smith | 13th Jul 23, 3:20pm - "we unhappy few" - don't be so hard on yourself.

When comparing to 2019-2021 pricing, FHB's will be on a much sounder financial footing by waiting for the desperation to set in before purchasing next year. This as a positive development.

We've all witnessed the greed. The many naive who purchased in 2019 -2021 at stupid prices with dirt cheap money are discovering home ownership is becoming unsustainable. Lets witness the fear run its course and provide the next (hopefully more educated) generation a decent chance at sustainable home ownership within a more stable market.

by Independent_Observer | 13th Jul 23, 6:24pm 1689229460

'it is only us here, we few, we unhappy few, who are aware of the awful truth'

Aeschylus comes to mind;

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.

by Ahuhyeah | 13th Jul 23, 6:36pm 1689230161

It's only just sinking in for many in my water cooler conversations.

by Toye | 13th Jul 23, 3:48pm 1689220131

First mortgage refix cliff coming up in September:

https://aucklandpropertyrealitycheck.substack.com/p/auckland-wellington…

This is a bump not a trend. Price falls will continue.

by HughJorgan | 13th Jul 23, 10:17pm 1689243477

The increased interest costs do have offset interest income.

The bigger hits are losses in value.

by Wrong John | 13th Jul 23, 5:54pm 1689227658

It still feels like winter at our place. No sign yet of the warmer weather. Keep your thermals close.

by Yvil | 13th Jul 23, 7:54pm 1689234886

Strange, there's no mention of Tony Alexander in today's threads, I wonder why that is ?

by Pragmatist | 13th Jul 23, 8:16pm 1689236182

There was, NZ Gecko mentioned 'Tone the Comb'.

by tuisbest | 14th Jul 23, 9:22am 1689283322

Perhaps because TA has become less and less relevant to anyone as his predictions continues to fail?

by wingman | 14th Jul 23, 10:01am 1689285678

NZ had a net migration gain in the year to March 2023 of 65,000. That to me means that house prices are about to stabilise or even increase....in some areas...not all.

Building firms are going to the wall and the number of consented houses is down.