A huge overhang of unsold properties is squeezing the housing market in buyers' favour

Which field of engineering are you in Scooter? I'm in mechanical. Seems to be a bit of work around but nothing like Aussie.

Doesn't seem to be a huge difference in pay but certainly more opportunities.

I find it kind of strange that, as in Oz yesterday, when announced that the unemployment rate had raised from 3.9% to 4.1% - thus putting the chances of an interest rate hike, to a cut. It would appear that being broke and unemployed is good for the economy.

Here in Brisbane, we have a stack of kiwis sending in their job application in for few IT roles that we have going. The split is almost 30/30/40, NZ, India and Australian based applicants. 

Hi Scooter, 🛴 

2021 is far to recent to draw conclusions.

Plenty of your University mates will return.

TTP

I read yesterday that graduate law students are now being paid $115k a year by top firms in Australia. Why would any top student want to study law in NZ - especially now that law schools are turning all the law subjects into Maori/Treaty ideologies that are completely useless to any NZ lawyer who wants to work outside of NZ.

I’m the same and I graduated in 2009, most got jobs here and then moved in 3-5 years. We are lucky we bought a house in 2014. Crazy how during the election parties of both stripes talked about people moving to Aus and trying to keep them here but no one actively pushing policies to increase wages, improve the superannuation system and improve services 

This is not new... All engineering students know they face a choice: Leave NZ or Leave the engineering industry. Only a lucky 2% can find engineering jobs in NZ within 5 years, even those at postdoctoral level. Most will leave the industry. Some who have means can leave NZ.

The only graduates with job security and support in further training are those in the military, mostly the NZ Navy. Understandably places are limited and there are physical restrictions. Yet the irony is for their further training the NZ Navy also has them leave NZ to overseas training bases.

So slow clap NZ you successfully discouraged most health & STEM workforce and opted for expensive consultants who provide even poorer quality work considering most don't have the required training and review due to low national workforce. In the case of houses that is many not meeting standards with expensive failures and fraudulent signoffs, in the case of health that is severe surgical errors and lack of diagnostic services at GP & specialist levels for most conditions.

Overall the hit to NZ productivity is severe, errors and missed opportunities more likely, higher unnecessary death tolls and through this the drive to leave NZ increases even for those who left the engineering industry.

33% above 2017? Not what I'd call a cheeky lowball offer. ;-)

I'd call an offer based on a 3% per annum roi - about 22% above 2017 - a good offer.

But each property needs to be evaluated on its own merits.

That's not a low ball, many places are offered at 20% under CV in Welly, the CV's are just silly high.

For remuera suburbs and those surrounding, for a standalone, 3+ bed house, the typical sell is about 15% above 2017 CV. Rapidly heading to 10%. 

excludes properties with significant renos since 2017

Given Welly RVs were done at the peak of the market (Nov 2021) nearly everything there is selling well under RV - 30% under is not at all that unusual..  Hope he gets the property.  

CVs & RVs are not a valuation on the property. The are not even a valuation on the area and suburb and those using them as a guide are even greater fools who cannot figure out why they keep increasing regardless of the actual sale prices. CVs and RVs can somewhat distort the market value because there are a great many fools. The NZ algorithms ensure the rates keep increasing disproportionately to the properties actual values and are really poor algorithms that have no understanding of developments on land, and no comprehension on topology either. They often tar properties in the same area with the same brush even though they can be vastly different. Other things that can affect value e.g. restrictions on future development (underground conditions) even though zoned in the area of higher development are not considered either.

For your own due diligence and that of your friend Get A Real Valuation By A Qualified Analyst

You would have said that in Nov 21 as well, and look where we are now....    I am not sure you have as much credibility as I have re price prediction....

I think -10% is unlikely but certainly possible. I think at least -5% is very plausible.

I predicted flat through 2024. Currently I am about right but that could change through winter. IT Guy's prediction is more pessimistic but hardly outlandish Mendel.

I live inland or I would buy you a beer, it was not that strip.....   its the one up on the ridge before you drop down to the Torbay sailing club, what's that actually called?

I imagine that long bay area would have had a few souls at the bar last night....

Step away from the keyboard Paul.

Your first mistake was creating an account on here with your company's incorporated name.

Yeah but that’s with low volume, and inflation still running pretty hot. We’re in an unrealised property crash.

There’s no reason for us to have 7+ median multiples. This was always going to happen.

Doing god's work brother. Amene.

- Chubby P

I always find it funny when they pick places affected by significant landslides, land risk zoning and flooding cutting off key connections as value for money while selling at extreme levels above the market values.

They might as well post articles also with inner city areas likely to be trashed by students and trashed in the literal sense of the littering and fly tipping that is a massive issue.

Or worse yet post areas in known high risk flood zones (high risk also in high water flooding). It amuses me these same RE sites post about areas with the same issues in Central South Island, Auckland, Wellington, Chch. Locals know the recent issues, lack of council maintenance etc. Yet poor investors do get caught and even poorer renters get screwed when things hit the fan. Even casual research has shown many issues in local news articles. When local news disappears (as it has been) we will have to resort to locals posting on SM about issues for local area research (which is slightly harder to do as the image & report location is not always very identifiable). Archival photos in long term storage, (e.g. libraries, museums, clubs etc) can show even more flooding, slope slipping & hazard history that is often not used in analysis, unrecorded, and forgotten or unknown by the last 3 generations.  

Seems to be quite a few mortgagee sales that aren't being declared as mortgagee sales. You know, few pictures and only from the outside. They could also be embarrassed LLs too I guess.

it's not a joke to me. I am waiting for the 'blood from the street'.

But maybe that significant equity, once it is realised by borrowing should be treated as income and taxed accordingly?

The prices of used VWs have fallen into a Golf? ;)

You hit the nail on the head. ZIRP or NIRP is highly likely.

Looots of toys will be on sale!

 Cars are a bubble as well. 

Already seeing some interesting potential purchases coming up, e.g. a maxxed out late model Apple desktop with a complete monitor/accessory setup for thousands less than the new retail price - due to a business closure - and cars going for 15-20% less than what they would have been not too long ago (e.g. a 2010 Lexus LX570 for $45k when it would have been about a $60k vehicle until recently). Cars could be under particular pressure if you get the double whammy of the classic car bubble popping - especially for more mundane stuff that did become overvalued - and then general consumer spending pullback. 

I've got some powder dry, but then the problem becomes threefold:

• If I wait longer, it will probably be even cheaper. 
• Am I going to need that cash for something else (e.g. if my income comes under pressure or my wife loses her job)? 
• If times are tough and the economy less buoyant, I'm going to think longer and harder about potential purchases

Yeah and when the problem is debt what good is a -OCR... it's like the dealer injecting the already OD customer... or will the banks pay us to take on more debt?

And if our belief in so called debt/business cycles is totally flawed this may not be a "normal" cycle... but TPTB will keep trying to make it so... for the benefit of whom?

A -negative OCR was nonsense when the RBNZ suggested it during covid and it remains a nonsense now.

"Be quick" 

TTP probably 

What, all of them?

lol, that 5k made all the difference.

What area of sales?

Yeah, I don't know anyone with a finance qualification willing to work for that.

Peak prices was early 2022, so many will still have some gains if they bought in late 2019, 2020 or early 2021. It also depends on the area - while Auckland and Wellington have dropped, places like Christchurch are still hovering around peak prices. In my suburb, they are currently setting new price records well above CVs

I suspect many are still expecting to get a lot more than they actually will in this market.

hence waiting   

LOL. Somehow I don't think there would have been much tax to pay.

_{(Last Sold on 18 Sep 2020 for $747,000 according to www.propertyvalue.co.nz)}

RB, specifically Orr is known to bullsh*t...

Oh the job is done…I’d almost say they have done the job outstandingly well…next 6-12 months will show how well they have done 😂

I’m dumbfounded that on this website you are having to point this out. Yvil looking to argue for CV as well really makes me wonder who is on here.

So prior CV or there abouts. Really shows the stupidity of lowering the ocr to far and holding low for to long.