The housing market remained subdued over the three months to September, with sales activity slowly rising but property values largely stagnant, according to property data company Cotality.
Cotality NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said given the weakness of the economy and labour market, a strong lift in prices was hard to envisage in the near term, though there were some signs of conditions shifting.
"With affordability returning back closer to normal levels, listing volumes starting to decline, mortgage rate falls increasingly passing through to existing borrowers as they reprice onto lower rates, and the unemployment rate set to fall a bit next year, conditions seem to be building for modest house price growth in 2026 - but don't expect a boom," Davidson said.
However, housing values were patchy depending on housing type and locations.
Across the country, 56% of suburbs (that's 1484 suburbs out of 2661) saw the median value of standalone houses decline over the three months to September. Townhouses and home units posted median value declines in 54% of suburbs, while values were unchanged or up slightly in 44% of suburbs.
The biggest declines of 5% or more were most common in lower priced parts of the North Island, such as Otangarei in Whangarei, Taihape, Inglewood in Taranaki and Paihia in Northland.
However 19 suburbs around the country posted median value gains of 5% or more.
"There's clearly still patchiness in the market, but this fits with the overall picture that national median values have drifted slightly lower in recent months," Davidson said.
"Overall, property values remain sluggish for now, but conditions may be turning towards some growth in 2026, albeit slightly muted," he said.
21 Comments
The light of house price projections is fading each time they come out with another forecast. Though as pointed out, different regions don't act together
Cashed up boomers in 21 sure lifted all tides. That was then. Now that the tide has gone out, and the economy is making it stay out. So not much left to float the specu boat. Still a long way back for yield to stack.
But hay...foreign owners are almost back and easier path for immigrants to rejuice the ponzi and save the speculative.
The economy is housing and vice versa. Averageman "hay" is what farm animals eat, are you being the bull at a gate
Not totally but the missing credit impulse is hurting.
In summary, Go Tian says the New Zealand property market appears to sit in a rare period of equilibrium, with low interest rates that favour buyers in the lower end of the market.
“Whereas during the pandemic we saw significant speculative demand from investment buyers, the market is now characterised by people buying houses for their intrinsic value rather than their potential as assets.“
CoteyofBS have absolutely no idea! Another failed prediction the moment its uttered and will be walked back come the flaccidity of 2026 is evident - mid next year!
Only the Ponzi deep Mike Hosking believes such Cotey Crapolas.
Prices will drift lower until 2027 or 2028 and DTIs of 3 to 5x reign supreme.
SpecuPonziVestors be feeling the burn:)
- "Just hang on and wait, till 2028" Will be the new mantra. Then we see spectacular 2 to 3% growth year on year maybe.....maybe. Booming muchly:)
What, even when retail mortgage rates are heading lower south Gecko. You're famous for turning the argument to yield, can you pull out some fancy poetic yield prose for us
There are a considerable amount of houses that are priced miles away from the bid, vendor is Dreamin......
I see 2026 as
likely (60%) between 0-5% falls
possible (35) 5-10% falls
nightmare for wider economy and likely a global crash/crisis or war event (5%) more then >10% falls
if we see gains across all of NZ it will be <3%
Yes thats your view of the macro. The micro is more interesting imo. Wheels within wheels, which is why you are buoyant on your own property/ies
For sure if you bought real cheap, or can subdivide, or build more cash flows then its all good.
or if its in riverhead its a river of gold!
Riverhead subdivision stoppage. Feed some hay into the cow and what comes out the other end is what the specu gambler gets.
You can't get white gold cashflow without a little of the brown stuff and I guess the same principle in ponzi land. How's all of your property investments, if you say you're "creaming" it, it goes back to my point about macro vs micro
Are you feeding out hay to your tenants and creaming it A-man, or just getting browned off
Revisited my old street which we sold out maybe 18 months ago. Depressing. Suburb generally going down hill with unkept properties in a abundance, most lawns trying to grow cars. Dodged a bullet selling out.
Poverty seems to have spread from the surrounds into a once pretty decent area.
If the Coalition get their land supply polices right, even when the economy picks up we will not get an increase in house prices due to speculative capital gains caused by supply not being able to equal demand.
Yes, prices will rise in keeping pace with general inflation, plus new builds are dearer than existing, or by where the owner/developer adds some type of amenity value.
The pickup in the economy should help with over all income increases via more people having jobs and getting paid more for what you do.
These two things of non-value-added speculative growth removal and income increases slightly above general rate of inflation will make housing more affordable as time goes on, improving the median multiple.
Property investors will make their returns more on yield and/or adding value-added amenity value.
Gone are the days of making a better return by doing nothing, than all those that actually make an effort.
My little anecdote above was really to suggest that the growing derelict state of more and more houses is an indicator of how bad things are.
One does generally not let a valuable asset crumble and decline.
But they are. And why?
Maybe the owners either haven't got the cash or they see better uses for their cash than funding a declining asset?
Just an observation, without reference to a spreadsheet.
Landlords did not have any repair or clean up budget, they hoped to cash out with having to spend anything?
Landlords trying to save by managing themselves, less inspections = more cars growth on lawns.
Many rentals have had no maintenance since before GFC, again landlord wanted to cash out now differed maintenance is becoming more visually obvious.
Yes agree, that was the model. Cap gains to take care of all. That said, I feel homeowners are now in the same boat. Overwhelmed with expenses and nothing left to keep on top of R&M.
When the value is all in the land, you do. Plus, for reasons given by others as to lack of cash flow to do maintenance.
Even now many of these older houses are being sold way more than they are worth once the cost of upgrading them is taken into account.
But NZ always has had a poor maintenance management. Even now it is not compulsorily in BCs to contribute to a long-term budget.
But you either treat your property like a student flat and max your cash flow, maybe with a plan for a future demolition and multi-unit rebuild or similar, or you should keep the maintenance current for the type of tenant you want, and to preserve your asset.
There is a correlation between yield and capital growth, where if one is high the other is low so the average return is about the same, and it could always sit at a fixed margin above just leaving the money in the bank. If both are high or both are low, then there is something systematically wrong with the investment, although if both are high then most people don't ask what that is and will just ride it to the bust.
The Govt have missed an opportunity where they could have allowed deprecation to be claimed, on receipt of monies actually spend on the building, not as what was historical done and using the deprecation saving for holidays etc. This would have encouraged much needed maintenance and upgrades on property and given many small builders much needed work.
But to cut depreciation altogether, as well as claiming interest rate deductions and ring fencing of income, meant the only other way to may it work financially was rent increases and speculative capital gains.
I asked a contact at Treasury had they ever done a study on where investment property sits in relation to all other ways you can invest and what the 'package' needs to look like to make it better than money sitting in the bank, but not like speculating on a race house. They said no they hadn't, as in it hadn't crossed their minds to even wonder.
It's definitely hard to see house prices rising now or for the rest of 2025. But the lower interest rates will lift house prices, its's just that people don't understand the lag between lowering interest rates and the resulting house price appreciation. House prices will start rising again in 2026. You can mark this post and judge it in April 2026 for March figures.
Mark the post? Rising home prices, are the Mark of the beast.
You dreaming about 2026? Sorry, more likely to be sobbing leveraged tears, over the slashed NZ housing Ponzi balloon - in total irretrievable tatters.
they where all saying survive to 25, now its 26 then 27......
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