The housing market may be heading for a soggy end to 2025, with sales slumping in November while prices moved sideways.
The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) recorded 7268 residential sales in November, down 4.4% compared to October, and down 5.7% compared to November last year.
The sales volume decline was particularly strong in the Auckland Region where the REINZ recorded 2234 sales in November. That's down 5.5% compared to October, and 6.6% lower than November last year.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales in Auckland were 9.1% down from October.
For the rest of the country, excluding Auckland, November's sales were 3.9% lower than October, and 5.3% lower than in November last year - see the interactive chart below for the full regional monthly sales trends.
Sales usually increase in November as the pre-Christmas summer season get's into top gear, so this year's November slump was unusual.
"This November marked only the sixth time in 33 years that New Zealand's November's sales count was below October's, underscoring how unusual it is for activity to ease at this point in the seasonal cycle," REINZ Chief Executive Lizzy Ryley said.
Prices little changed
At the same time prices basically moved sideways.
The REINZ House Price Index (HPI) was up just 0.1% in November compared to October, but down 0.2% compared to November last year.
The REINZ HPI is widely regarded as the most accurate indicator of residential price movements because it adjusts for changes in the mix of properties sold each month.
Around the regions the HPI declined in November versus October in Northland, Waikato, Gisborne/Hawke's Bay, Taranaki, Manawatu/Whanganui, and Southland. It increased in Auckland, Wellington, Tasman/Nelson/Marlborough/West Coast, Canterbury and Otago. It was unchanged in the Bay of Plenty. See the table below for the full regional movements.
Volumes sold - REINZ
Select chart tabs
Median price - REINZ
Select chart tabs
41 Comments
I come back from holiday and the Auckland central HPI is up 3% on the quarter!
I should go on Holiday all year!
🥂
...Yvil antics.
In August, the Herald’s Liam Dann said this country was not experiencing a housing market meltdown but a full-blown crash.
The property market in Auckland and Wellington was experiencing one of its worst slumps, with values significantly below the 2022 peak, based on QV data, Dann wrote.
-1% for the full year, don't go on holiday too long
The trend is your friend, don't be slow on the uptake!
There are lies, damned lies and statistics
- Benjamin Disraeli
How do you discern signal from noise Cote D'Azur?
North Shore median up 8.4% on the month.
Looks like the best locations are steaming ahead.
Noone ever regretted buying quality!
🥂
.
While I admire your optimism, it's hard to look at the data and see anything other than essentially flat prices. I do wonder if there will be a small upturn next year, but it's certainly not here yet.
Cote d'Azur when was the last time you bought an investment property, and where was it located?
Could be something to do with migration outflow of 70,000 working age NZ residents in a single year. That has to show up in the economic data somewhere.
The NZ economy is literally shrinking and that trajectory is not going to change in 2026.
Stock is building, record rentals entering market, RE sales are down...
the pressure cooker is building pressure and it's not lobster inside Cote and Shiffy
your recovery is like the Willis surplus
Handwavy 🤣
I prefer to look at factual data, which is the Auck City HPI is up strongly. In fact close to12% pa if annualized.
This site reported a strong Migration bounce last sample, and rents for auckland up on the year.
Good to be back! 🥂
You mentioned the North Shore median being up 8.4% in your other comment, how do you feel about the monthly HPI being down 1.5%?
I am hoping you're just trying to craft a narrative and not actually basing financial decisions on this kind of statistical analysis.
You're right, quarterly HPI is the best measure to gauge trends, so that's 2%, or 8% annualized for North Shore.
Not too shabby! 🥂
I have a dozen eggs, i will hatch them and the off spring and by the end of the year I will have 500 eggs, annualized returns.
not too shabby
I always like looking at the graphs themselves, which don't convince me there's any trend in either direction. Perhaps Auckland City and Waitakere in a very slow downtrend over the last couple of years.
Like I said, a small price rise in the next year wouldn't surprise me at all, but I think you're jumping the gun to say it's arrived. Place your bets now I guess. I already own a house, not keen to lever up and stick more into the same market so will concentrate on my stock portfolio instead.
and rents for auckland up on the year.
Where are you seeing this?
Maybe after all that champagne, he read Auckland Rental numbers up this year.... due to not being able to sell.
An investment is not an investment if you cannot exit.
....with financial dignity.
I don't understand the heavy focus towards the number of sales. Sure, if you're a RE agent the number of sales is paramount. But REA's represent a small portion of the population. The vast majority of Kiwis are interested in price, not how many houses have sold. This is true for FHB, current owners, sellers and investors. This most important metric is largely continuing its sideway trend.
True, but volume on the offer is also a good indication of how easy it will be for prices to continue up. It may well be that better stock is selling at a discount to vendor expectations, but still pulling market up 1-2%. The less quality stock is hanging around like a bad smell as you can drive a bus through the current price gap between vendor and buyer offers.
Headline is correct, it's a soggy market and bodes badly for winter, going in with a large overhang. It's putting a lot of pressure on the 26/27 summer. Sellers may see life events interfere with price expectations and we will finally see acceptance and clearance of this massive overhang. Clearance is not happing this summer now.
Firstly, the five year price increase metrics are now negative.
Secondly, people said the supply would be turned off at lower prices. But if you are sitting on subdivided land, there is no point waiting for it to increase in value. Which is why consents and completions are still relatively strong. Not as crazy as the boom - but still 13,000 per annum in Auckland, which is faster than the population growth and suggests that flat five year measure could be flat for another five years.
"Firstly, the five year price increase metrics are now negative"
Except that it's not true. Have another look, 5 year is up 1.5%, compound per annum which = +7.7% over 5 years.
Not quite there yet nationwide, Wellington turned negative a couple of months ago and now Auckland too. Nationwide we'll probably go negative mid next year if there isn't a big uptick.
Yvil lives in Auckland.
Auckland is by far the largest market.
Auckland is down -1.5% over 5 years
You are right - I was looking at Auckland - which is negative 0.3% average for the last five years - so down a total of 1.5 over five years.
A few more regions will fall into that path as the comparison becomes the price peaks in 2021.
and the staggering 1.5% for New Zealand overall is probably 1/3rd of the interest rate you paid on the mortgage.
The two fundamentals I have been arguing are that:
- house prices don't double every ten years and they won't double again during my lifetime (which will be shorter than many on this site)
- these massive capital gains that agents tell you about aren't going to be greater than the interest rate you are paying on the debt.
Good on you for having the courage and honesty to admit: "you are right". Very few commenters are able to do this.
even granny herald see's it 🥂
ANZ economists said: “Sales volumes are back below their long-run historic[al] average for this time of year”, referring to a lack of bounce from spring.
November’s activity had been weaker than the economists had expected.
Things could worsen for those hoping prices will rise.
“Renewed weakness in the housing market and the sharp increase in wholesale interest rates since the November Monetary Policy Statement [from the Reserve Bank] presents some downside risk to house prices,” ANZ said.
I think something is being missed here.
1. The indexes are meaningless because they lack any depth in terms of data points. People who use these indexes as an indicator for market value are fooling themselves.
2. People don't celebrate when stock prices have remained basically flat for 5 years. They expect stock prices and divs to appreciated at a greater rate than holding cash.
3. The Ponzi cheerleaders need to think smarter. Look at all the 'happy signals' with more conservative estimates. For ex, If you expect house prices to appreciate 7-10% pa, but they're plateauing around 0-1%, you should keep your joy in check.
I have not heard an investor say my house makes more than me .... for a very long time.
Now it is flipped to my house takes more from me (increased maintenance, insurance, rates costs, increased cost to IP's for mortgage top ups with reducing rents)
I know plenty of good folk who haven't had a 'day job' in years due to their property investments. Myself included.
If thats what u mean!
Ps great to know the 'Echo chamber of misery' is alive and well here.
Btw History shows it's more profitable to take the optimists perspective. Most here will obviously ignore this!
Cheers! 🥂
And yet there seems to be an inverse correlation between wealth gained in the NZ housing market and positive human qualities such as humility and good grace.
Enjoy the coming CGT. Let them eat cake....I mean pay tax...
I know plenty of good folk who haven't had a 'day job' in years due to their property investments. Myself included.
I have a relative in Dunedin who I estimate owns 100+ properties (he never disclosed exactly how many), including student flats (where he started his empire).
He was working all the time. Didn't sit around gloating and sipping cocktails. Or spending time on golf courses.
Yes, there's been a huge tail wind over the last few decades making it a golden trade for those alive at the right time.
The question for newcomers is whether the future will look like the past, and I think there's good reasons to think it won't be as peachy for property investors. Probably return to the historical trend of a slow, steady performer making a moderate return for those willing to put the time and energy in.
In a healthy, sustainable, functional, market, those words should never be spoken.
Otherwise its a sign you're in a speculative bubble.
.
House prices still to high in Akl. Need to drop at least 10% and make that 15% for the North Shore. Family member on the North Shore doesn't care whether they go down. The member lives in the house and doesn't own any rental properties although the member is aqainted with two or three who own between 3 to 6 properties. Disclaimer I want them to fall further in Akl so I can buy something up there to live but don't want them to fall in New Plymouth. Don't follow the stats but think NP not as badly affected as Akl.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.