There appears to be more public support for Labour's tax package than against it, if the latest internet poll by Horizon is anything to go by.
Asked to choose between Labour's tax policy and National's opposition to it, 40.9% of the 1,201 polled on Friday, July 22, said they either supported, or strongly supported Labour's proposal, while 34.1% said they opposed, or strongly opposed the policy.
Labour's policy includes a 15% capital gains tax on assets other than the family home, a NZ$5,000 tax-free threshold on all income, taking GST off fresh fruit and vegetables, and raising the top personal income tax rate to 39% from 33% for incomes over NZ$150,000.
Before they voted, those polled were told by Horizon:
“Labour proposes a 15% CGT, with exemptions for family homes and some holiday homes and small businesses. It says this will make the tax system fairer and raise revenue to make the first $5000 of income tax free for everyone, take GST off some essential food items, and avoid the need to sell down state assets longer term to repay Government debt. National argues a capital gains tax is complicated, may slow economic recovery and the country does not need another tax.”
People were then asked to state whether they supported a capital gains tax.
See Horizon's comments, and the results, below:
More New Zealanders support than oppose a capital gains tax.
The first nationwide poll conducted since the policy announcement finds 40.9% support Labour’s capital gains tax (CGT) proposal , 34.1% oppose, 17.9% are neutral and 7.1% don’t know.
The HorizonPoll survey of 1201 people on Friday (July 22) finds the tax policy polarising the country by income, occupation, property ownership and party vote. The survey has a maximum margin of error of +/- 2.8%.
Horizon Research says the policy appears to have consolidated traditional support for Labour, but is not triggering a significant support rise. Labour’s party vote support is up 0.9% on its May result. National is up 2.2%. National has 10.2% more support than Labour.
However, among voters who will actually vote and have decided which party they would vote for if an election were held tomorrow, and those undecided who have a party preference, the current governing coalition (National, Act, Maori Party, United Future) would secure 44.4%.
A Labour, Green, New Zealand First, Jim Anderton’s Progressives coalition 44.3%, with 7.6% remaining undecided.
The Mana Party has 1.9%, down from 2.9% in May, the Maori party 0.7% (1.2% in May).
The results indicate undecided voters and those currently choosing not to vote or say how they will vote, will most likely determine the election outcome and the minor parties will determine which main party forms a government. There is strong support for a CGT among Labour, Green, and New Zealand First voters and even strong opposition to it among National, Act and United Future voters.
Those polled were told: “Labour proposes a 15% CGT, with exemptions for family homes and some holiday homes and small businesses. It says this will make the tax system fairer and raise revenue to make the first $5000 of income tax free for everyone, take GST off some essential food items, and avoid the need to sell down state assets longer term to repay Government debt.
“National argues a capital gains tax is complicated, may slow economic recovery and the country does not need another tax.”
GENDER
The CGT policy attracts more support among men (46.8% support, 37.7% oppose) than women (35.2%/ 30.5%).
PERSONAL INCOME
By personal income, its strongest supporters earn less than $20,000 a year (45%), between $20,001 and $30,000 (44.6%), and $70,001 and $100,000 a year (44.4%).
Middle income New Zealand splits: Among those earning $30,001 and $50,000 36.6% support, 21.5% are neutral and 32.4% oppose. Among those earning $50,001 to $70,000 40.4% oppose, 16.9% are neutral and 36.6% support.
The country’s highest earners are strongly opposed to the tax.
Among those on incomes between $100,001 and $150,000, 56.5% oppose (13% neutral, 33.7% support).
Some 65.2% of those earning $200,000 or more oppose (34.8% are neutral and none support).
AGE
Strongest supporters for the CGT by age are those aged 55 to 64 (46.2%), over 65s (46%) and 18 to 24 year-olds (44.9%). Support is at 35.8% among those aged 35 to 44 (40% oppose). Among 45 to 54 year-olds support is also at 35.8%, but opposition at 35.1% (21.4% are neutral).
OCCUPATION
Some 64.2% of the country’s business managers and executives oppose the tax (33.7% support). Among business proprietors and self-employed 48.8% oppose, 35.8% are neutral and 15.3% support.
Highest opposition is from farm owners and managers (69.7%, with 16.2 in support and 14% neutral).
However, among professionals and senior Government officials support is 42.5% to 28.6% opposed.
Labour is enjoying strong policy support among students (54.6%), technical, mechanical and skilled workers (50.9%), teachers, nurses, police and other trained service workers (44.6%), and retired superannuitants (54.6%).
HOMEOWNERS
Among those who own their own homes or rental properties (with or without mortgages) 43.1% oppose the tax policy, 40.6% support and 14.4% are neutral.
ETHNICITY
By ethnicity the policy draws more support than opposition from European/pakehas (40.3%/33.4%), Maori (46.6%/ 22.2%), Indians (32.8/ 21.9) and Pacific Islanders (43.9%/ 8.4%).
However, among Asians 40% are neutral, 33.4% oppose and 24.5% support.
PARTY VOTERS
People who voted National, Act and United Future in the 2008 general election oppose the tax policy (58.8%, 77% and 54.4% respectively).
However, the policy attracts support from 2008 voters for Labour (67%), Greens (70.6%), New Zealand First (52.9%) and Maori Party (65.5%) and those who supported other parties (56.6%).
This indicates a Labour-Green-New Zealand First coalition would enjoy strong support among its voters to proceed with a CGT.
Among the important group of electors who chose not to vote in 2008 (some 187,000 people), 43.2% support a CGT, 17.2% are neutral and 24.9% opposed).
The survey is weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, personal income, region and party vote 2008 to provide a representative sample of the New Zealand population. The maximum margin of error at a 95% confidence level is +/- 2.8%.
The survey continues at www.horizonpoll.co.nz
15 Comments
It''s funny how Labour never proposed a CGT when property was rising 20% a year during the boom years. At that point everyone loved property and thought it was the best thing since sliced bread. The Labour goverment kept interest rates way too low for too long and helped fuel the whole thing along. Now here they are promising to impose a CGT a few years later, now that property has become less popular (probably due to it not going up in value for four years now).This is simply political maneovering at its worst....
@K'Pete: You're quite right.
Labour never introduced a CGT when they should have. We were in a consumption-fuelled boom, based on a property boom & free flow of credit. This resulted in truckloads of tax money, Cullen was rolling in it. So a CGT was off the table: why raise a tax that will be as popular as the Fart Tax among the propertied interests, & get all the acromony when you don't need the $$$?
However, better late than never as far as I am concerned.
I am supportive of a CGT, it will certainly affect how I vote.
Cheers to all
You can't really blame Labour for the interest rates back then, although the RBNZ did eventually get them to being the highest in the world.
Back then allowing a property boom to develop wprobably asn't considered anywhere near as much of a risk and as damaging, as it is now fully accepted to be, given what it has done to countries like the US, Ireland, Greece etc.
Yet although we know the risks of a massively over priced housing market, we have the lowest interest rates for years.
If we aren't going to get interest rates back up to even a nuetral level, which they are still a long way off, something else has to be done to control inflation, and housing inflation would be a good place to start, given it's more affected by interest rates than just about anything else.
So if interest rates don't go back up, some kind of change is needed, either CGT, land tax, or a serious captial controls policy.
Why do you need to control it? I take it you have already bought your family home and possibly have others?
What about first home buyers and younger generations yet to buy houses, why should they have to take out massive loans to buy houses 2 to 3 times more expensive than earlier generations?, while we also have among the most lenient property tax rules in the world.
4 years ago our property prices were right up there with the most over priced in the world, the average price now is only slightly less now than it was then.
We've got very low interest rates, and almost 6% inflation, so something needs to be done quickly.
The only way to fix it is either crank up interest rates, which is going to ramp up the dollar and kill exporters, or employ another way dealing with it and that's probably land or CGT.If you go for whats best for the economy the later is probably the later every time.
Allowing inflation to run out of control is stealing from people who save money, in a properly functioning economy people who save money wouldn't have their money eroded by inflation.
We've got debt that's about as bad as Greece and Ireland, and look at the position they are in, we can't live in dreamland, extending and pretending forever.
If this country is every going to be wealthy, people need the incentive to save money, not just buy consumer goods where the profits go offshore.
The most dissapointing aspect in the questions is that they give the impression that a GCT will avoid assett sales.. If they had indicated Labour will need to borrow more than the current government is borrowing to cover the proposal I wonder what the result would be..
Who wrote the question.. Phil Goff..
I did love the lamb(Goff) to the slaughter (Larry Wiliams) on ZB when Phil Goff was adamant that CGT on inherited properties when sold did not equate to a reintroduction of inheritance/death duties. Williams correctly pointed out that taxing the realisation of inherited property was a death duty by stealth. Goff simply did not understand the concept-- and he is running for PM ? Heaven help us.
I imagine Labour will establish a Ministry of CGT in wellington , with a host of policy analysts, it will cost $100m pa with a return of $50m. It will be a $50m apeasement of the Sue Bradfords of this world.
CGT is not Death Duty by stealth. CGT is levied on any capital gain after 'V' day on 'investment' property ( NB: The family home is already exempt). If there's no gain, or a loss, on inherited property - there's no tax to pay. Death Duty is levied on the principal sum bequethed, whether it's gained in value or not. ( more like income tax than a CGT.)
welcome on board this blogsite Delphi - look I know you are new here ,but you need to go easy on Goff . Along with almost the entire parliamentary Labour /Green party he hasnt had any real life experience in business so cant be expected to understand tax and stuff
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