Migration inflows at record levels (again) with more people arriving but fewer leaving

Migration inflows at record levels (again) with more people arriving but fewer leaving

Population growth from migration continues to break all previous records with a net gain of 68,432 residents in the year to May.

According to Statistics New Zealand it was the twenty second month in a row that the annual net migration gain had set a new record.

Prior to that period the previous record was a net gain of 42,500 new residents in the year to May 2003 (the net gain is the total number of permanent and long term arrivals in this country minus the total number of permanent and long term departures).

Statistics NZ said the record gain in new residents was driven mainly by increasing numbers of new arrivals, with a record 124,800 coming to this country on a permanent or long term basis in the year to May, which was up 8% on the previous 12 months.

Approximately a quarter of the arrivals were New Zealand citizens returning after an extended stay overseas.

Over the same period 56,400 people left this country permanently or long term, which was down 2% compared to the previous 12 months.

The biggest source country for new arrivals remains India, with a net gain of 12,274 people in the year to May, followed by China and Hong Kong 10,418, The Philippines 5,142, the UK 3,942, France 3,144, Germany 3,033 and South Africa 2,918.

The effects of the continuing surge in migration-fueled population will be felt most acutely in Auckland, with more than half of the new arrivals who stated the location they intended to live on their arrivals cards, listing Auckland as their destination.

The most immediate impact will be on Auckland's housing market, with a serious housing shortage already evident in the Auckland region and the rate at which new homes are being built still falling well short of what is required to cope with its burgeoning population growth.

It will also put further pressure on infrastructure such as transport.

However after the release of May's figures, economists at both ASB and Westpac issued commentaries saying they believed that migration could begin to slow.

In a Quickview note on the figures, ASB economist Daniel Snowden said migration inflows could be close to peaking.

An improving Australian economy and changes to Australia's citizenship laws could encourage more New Zealanders living across the Tasman to stay there to gain citizenship, rather than return to this country, he said.

And in a First Impressions newsletter on the figures, Westpac's chief economist Dominick Stephens said he expected more people to start leaving New Zealand 

"We expect annual net migration to fall rapidly over the coming year or two, as foreigners who arrived on temporary work visas or student visas over the past three years, begin to depart, and as the recovering Australian labour market begins to attract new Zealanders across the Tasman," he said.

Net long term migration

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So that's about 40,000 houses required to home them all. Most come to Auckland. if half do that's 20,000 houses. How many were built in the 12 months?

Given the breakdown more like 4,000............

Housing is so last year. We've got plenty of cars and couches. Nobody needs to buy a house. My mate John reckons people are choosing to rent now. And if we run out of couches just pay them to move elsewhere. You're not going to grow the economy by being xenophobic.

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The insanity continues.

I have just rented out a house in Epsom to a family from Western Europe. Only vacant for a week.

Quite a lot of Germans come here yet I hardly ever come across them which is a shame because I'd like to get to know some of those folk. Do they not settle in Auckland?

Available rental properties in Auckland up 24.5 percent since January.Large numbers vacant.

I come across a lot of Western Europeans in Nelson, Motueka, that kind of area, looking for a lifestyle not a traffic jam anecdotally.

Zachery, the Germans like coastal lifestyle blocks. There lots of them up north here. The paradox for me being anti immigration, is that they are an asset to Northland communities. Environmentally aware, great neighbors, hardworking and honest.

Exactly why would you leave Europe and immigrate to Aucklands traffic problems. My wife and daughter just had five days there. While the shopping was fantastic they said the traffic congestion was seriously bad. They hired a rental for the stay as it was convenient and cheaper than taxis. Europeans want space and quality of life. Auckland as lovely as it is does not offer much of either to Europeans who are escaping problems that are seemingly becoming part of everyday life in the city of sails.

Well that would explain the missing Germans. NZ probably needs the hub city of Auckland but can still offer a nice lifestyle to Europeans seeking a paradise in the South Pacific. This is where things get a bit sensitive and one risks the ban hammer but communities of people setting up European style settlements in coastal areas away from Auckland would be A okay with me.

I don't think they are setting up European style settlements Zach. They are buying nice lifestyle properties like mine which have large executive homes on them and great views. Properties not easy to come by in places like Germany.

Oh yeah I realise that, I'm just suggesting that this type of immigration could be promoted to NZ's benefit to grow places outside of the main centres. Quite often through history certain areas have attracted certain groups and the culture of the place has reflected that later. Dunedin - Scottish, New Orleans - French....

Also "nice lifestyle properties ..which have large executive homes on them and great views" = European pioneer style.

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I see that Transport Minister Bridges says that " You just cannot keep adding lanes" to motorways.
Maybe he should talk to the Immigration Minister and say "You just cannot keep adding people"

Why not build lanes on top of lanes?

Vertical Infrastructure - nice!

Dunno about you but I already feel the weight of an immigrant on my shoulders.

works for Japan

Yeah, and check out their lifestyle. no thanks.

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Some quick stats ........

UK population 64.1 million Immigration 333,000 .....so gain of 0.52 %

NZ population 4.5 million Immigration 68,432 .....so a gain of 1.52%

Or in other words 3 times the amount of the UK per capita !! .....what a silly little country NZ is .... just trying to chase some cash !! ...ridiculous !!

3 times the amount relative to population
.
But yes, I agree. Short term gain, long term pain.

We have proportionally 3 times more than the UK yet due to their immigration issues Brexit is going to go down to the wire.
I would suggest NZ needs an Aklexit or a Jkexit.

I don't think the vote will be in favour of an exit.

We'll know by Friday afternoon, I guess.

I have a feeling that there is zero chance that Britain will be allowed to leave the EU. Either the poll will be rigged or the result will be ignored but too many powerful people have vested interests in the status quo.

So there is "rigging" if results don't match your view? Classic conspiracy theory.

I don't know about rigging DC but there are rumours that "Remain" MP's are planning a cross- party coalition in the Commons (invoking Rex is Lex), to defy the vote if it goes against them!

Ergo phobia,

I am doing a short course from Edinburgh University on the referendum. Parliament is sovereign,so legally it could refuse to implement a Leave decision. A majority of MPs support staying in, so it could become interesting if there was to be a very narrow vote to leave,say 50.50/49.50. We will know soon.

Power to your pen LL01. The English Constitution is a most worthy subject for study.
My Regards. EP

Yes CH, and the gross number of immigrants arriving is 124,000. For the ones leaving during the year it is mission accomplished, they can come back any time.

Not that I advocate we aspire to the population of the UK, but those numbers highlight our somewhat sparsely populated backwater identity. Maybe, just maybe double the population would do us good. Auckland would then be only 1 of 3 or 4 major cities.

15 million has been cited as a target nz population. Growth rate of 2% p.a also mentioned. Google it. We are currently around the 2% Growth rate so things going to plan. Buy in Uni cities these will outperform over the long term

haha i said it this morning, ""today I expect to see the headline immigration reaches new high"
http://www.interest.co.nz/news/82224/yellen-positive-cautious-key-us-dat...
so much for the extra 700000 in auckland in 30 years, like i have also said try 15 years.
as for the gridlock, you will not get rid of that because we only plan 20 years out and are behind not ahead of the curve I>E already 20 years behind.
the auckland SH1 should be 6 lines each way from bombay to orewa to make way for all the new housing at each end.
as for SH20 that needs to be 4 each way so already the link tunnel will not be big enough

People need to think about reducing their need to criss-cross the city as their God-given right. They need to tend to live and work in their own quadrant of the city. Road pricing tolls will sort that out, the sooner the better.

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Utter nonsense. Cities should be run and developed for the benefit of the populace. Being able to commute around a city is core. Immigration and infrastructure policies have a huge impact on core functions of the city. Not only do we have rights to these core functions, but we should be able to reasonable expect more from our city/country. On top of this we also have an obligation to protect these things for future generations.

Tolls are another sign of infrastucture sagging under the weight of too many people. My friend in Sydney pays $120 dollars a week in tolls just getting to work and back. It is just another tax so we can squeeze more immigrants into Auckland and further erode our quality of life.

Is your friend still living there despite these costs? Density is higher there; why did that not drive her/him out? (Good jobs are a strong magnet.)

Still there, she loves her job (bridge tours) but even on an above average wage she is finding it harder and harder to survive let alone get ahead.

Damm true, how dare people think it is necessary to drive to the Airport and fly places. Stay home and work around the block, dam insolence I say.

As a tradie contractor working around Auckland, my view is a little more realistic. I will simply add congestion charging into my hourly charge out rate.Customer will pay.

Auckland housing construction is so slow it would fail to cope with a quiescent, stagnated and completely migrant free world.

So successful is the council being in channelling Auckland construction to exurban sprawl, that our building of apartments is 60 - 70% slower than contemporary cities.

Looks to me like the numbers have been dropping the last few months? If this trend continues then we could see migration slow for a bit just like it did when the last global recession hit.
The chances of another global recession are quite high at the moment and if that happens migration may slow until the storm is over.

The chances of another global recession have been quite high for years. The money printers will make sure it doesn't happen until they can no longer. I would say it is not imminent.

Its imminent alright. If the Brexit happens it will trigger it sooner, otherwise we will be in for one next year. The US is pretty much almost there.

while i agree we could be heading for another world recession, and that will be a nightmare with worldwide debt and neg interest rates.
i can not see how immigration will reduce to levels we can manage with the family allowance criteria.
once one is in then the family follows
https://www.immigration.govt.nz/new-zealand-visas/options/join-family/ex...

"until the storm is over"

You clearly think things can then right themselves after some period ... but there is nothing to suggest this is possible; growth is dead, cheap energy is dead, peak everything is here. Without continued intervention, viable energy producers are extinct. There can be no reset and carry on.

The storm may be around for a while, but people don't tend to move when its happening unless there are better work opportunities. Not sure NZ will have enough to offer when the next global recession happens as at the moment we are mainly relying on Tourism and the Building boom to get us through. Dairy is not doing well and Tourism will drop off when the recession hits.

i think my point being the next recession is the last recession. Saudi trying to sell oil shares, venezuela broke and sitting on huge oil reserves, china coal usage declining, freight indexes everywhere showing falling trade.
Once energy producers stop, they dont restart and later become viable unless prices can somehow rebound - Solid energy a case in point. But deflation, dropping demand and declining economies to scale says they cant.

In Auckland Indians do not seem to be making up much of the crowd at the Barfoot auction rooms, unlike the Chinese - which is just as well or we would have even more of a housing crisis if the Indians were buying the same number of properties as the Chinese do. Interesting to see all the northern countries feature - UK, French and Germans coming in - wonder which cities they are mainly choosing to settle?

The U.K. And Europe is a bigger mess than people think so although I think migration rates will slow I still think there will continue to be a steady flow from there.

In case you weren't watching - this was posted in October 2015

30 October 2015 - Indian Taxi Driver

Listen to the chatter

You might be surprised ... this might be hearsay ... in the absence of any better evidence I will go with it ..

On the way to the airport last week, got talking to the taxi taxi driver who happened to be sub-continental .. asked him why, when the auction rooms were chock full of chinese people, where were the Indians, why weren't they in there buying and bidding and competing ...

and his surprise answer

Indians will be mainly building new, they go and buy sections and commission new-builds to their own specifications, consequently by buying sections and building new they don't appear on the radar

And that's the difference between asking questions and guesswork

They might even be responsible for a lot of the new consents

http://www.interest.co.nz/property/78385/aucklands-housing-shortage-wors...

and again in January 2016
28 January 2016
Rhyme and Reason
http://www.interest.co.nz/property/79731/barfoots-sell-three-out-seven-u...

Must......keep......feeding........bubble.....

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quotes to come today
from JK its kiwis returning home
from BE its a good problem to have
from NS we are starting to get onto the supply of houses and we need more builders
from WP this shows the government has no real economic policy for growth other than population

..and only one of those is true.

You have the comment wrong for NS. Last week we were working on skewing the housing market away from investors to owner occupiers. This week we are working on skewering the landlords and next week we will hang them out to dry.

On the National Programme radio news this morning the concrete wait time in Auckland is THREE WEEKS. That is outrageous, and will be greatly slowing down construction.

I hear that because traffic is now so slow some concrete is being rejected when it gets to the delivery spot. Traffic - one of those things like education, health, crime, racism that will become part of JK's legacy although it is heartening to hear that finally someone might have the strength to introduce road tolls in AKL.

Unnecessary rant deleted.... Ed. There you go David i edited it myself.

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Singing overhead from JK's office-
Let them live in cars
Let them live in the street
Let them live in paddocks like sheep

Careful with that, next thing you know it'll be Paula Bennett's new housing solution.

2nd verse overheard...

They try and house them in Marae
They put them in rented garden sheds
I’ve sold the state houses to keep them out of dry beds

Ask govt and will say sign of prosperity. The question is whose ?

One aspect to remember with these immigration flows is the high proportion of the net increase who are students. This partially explains the increase in Indian migrants - many of who obtain a work permit while they are studying in New Zealand. In terms of housing, the demand is often Auckland but can be elsewhere and is most visible in small inner-city apartments. The rental increases on these apartments, and therefore the prices, has been very rapid in the past year.

Do people still come here to gain citizenship then skip across the ditch to OZ?

yep. And if you never intend to return to New Zealand the bonus is that the Kiwi's can whistle for the student loan repayments.

yes and its a pity becuse that is why the aussies have come down hard on kiwis over there, they know we are the back door

A back door entry to add a bit of spice to life.

Had a tenancy vacancy coming up and advertised on TM, one day, 20+ groups. Potential tenants literally angry and demanding reasoning for not accepting them, it was quite uncomfortable. I do not see value in your vacancy comment, it doesn't stack up with my experience

Over 2000 available in Auckland City on Trade Me today, over 4000 for Auckland as a whole.