Buyers were more cautious at Bayleys' latest auctions with sales on just under 25% of properties auctioned

Buyers were more cautious at Bayleys' latest auctions with sales on just under 25% of properties auctioned
This three bedroom house on a 2977 square metre section sold for $830,000.

The overall sales rate dipped to just under a quarter at Bayleys Real Estate's latest residential property auctions.

Bayleys marketed 49 residential properties for sale at auctions in Auckland, Hamilton and Rotorua over the last week and sold 12 of them, giving an overall clearance rate of 24%.

The remaining 38 were mostly passed in for sale by negotiation, with a handful having their auction dates postponed.

The bulk of the action was in Auckland where 38 properties were up for grabs and sales were achieved on nine.

Highlights of the Auckland auctions Included a typical 1970s, brick and tile unit in Onehunga.

It had two bedrooms, a small but private garden and a carport and sold for $675,000.

And out at Waimauku in Auckland's rural north west, a three bedroom house with a sleepout on a 2977 square metre lifestyle block sold for $830,000.

Photos and details of all the properties offered and the prices achieved on those that sold are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

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To those speculator/flippers who sought refuge in a commodity that is still overpriced and unaffordable to the next person. Your once proud investment decision now rests on very shaky ground. Deep down it must hurt, knowing you missed getting top price and that potential buyers believe it will only be even cheaper tomorrow. This is pure law of supply vs demand, a glut of overpriced homes is drowning out the demand for such. I suggest it is you that has now missed the boat. Further proof arrives here almost daily that FHB are gaining the traction they have longed for. (my kids included)

Speculators cm Landlords, you're kidding no one, not even the IRD. It never was about the yield.

I think you need to see someone about your condition Retired-Poppy because things really aren't that dire.


Nah,....I would best describe it as "greedy vendors increasingly challenged"

It's just not very attractive. All of us property owners are well used to this sort of activity in the market.

Accepting that, what's the point of logging in here every five minutes to post "it's all great" when surely your and the other Bulls time would be better spent hunting for the next high yield (sarc) bargain...?

Prop mags are getting fat with listings, but sales continue to drag. Price is what you pay, value is what you get and there is a difference in opinion in the market. Truth is there has been a difference for some time especially for kiwis living and paying tax in NZ. If listing and no sale the rinse and repeat continues, some will have the pressure to bail and prices will decline. At what rate only history will show. For the specuvestors sitting on a pile of debt at interest only I would suggest that PI will stand for peptobismal intake.

Soon tax paying kiwis will be "the market", so they should continue to be patient. National should note that this is tax paying kiwis in NZ who happen to be....voters.

I hope that FHB are following this. While there is differing opinions as to where the market is headed, the number of "likes" is a strong indicator as to what the consensus is.

Personally I don't think that there is going to be a crash - this would not be in the interests of the banks nor the wider economy so it is likely that the RBNZ would use its tools (e.g. LVRs and OCR) to modify a sharp downturn. However, there will however be some price correction over the next few years in what is an overheated, overvalued, market to make price to income ratio and rental yield realistic to enable FHB and investors back into the market

Excellent , when auction rates dip to around 10% , we will know the frenzy of the past 5 years is over

Some people are terminal.

RP, not sure why you are so worried about other people who have bought property?

What is it that makes you continually go on about house prices and always about them going to drop.

We have had that from various posters for that many years it is not funny!

At some stage they were bound to be right but the fact is that in that time they have probably doubled!

RP, you would have been better to have got on the bandwagon and made more than enough to enjoy your retirement rather than moaning!

Nevertheless some good sales going on there. A house in Takapuna with an RV of 860K, last sold in 2015 for 650K got 1.025M at auction. #Goodbuy at that price actually. The Onehunga unit had an RV of 620K yet got 675K while a house in Onehunga sold for 100K over 2017 RV.

Check it out................ that property is now a densification property , which means mulit -units or high rise or whatever

Morning walk around the Bays into St Heliers. Beautiful. Breakfast at the Porch. Lots of houses for sale and lots of sold signs as well. The market appears to be clearing itself. Nice places on offer, no excuses. People getting on with their lives, which ultimately is what it’s about with owner occupation. Some of you on here need to get out more. Apart from the breakfast the experience was free.

whatever! Trade me listings for Auckland at 12300 and rising. March is supposed to be a Stellar sales month, but it doesn't look like thats going to happen

Sorry Bulls, the boom is over and we are heading downhill from here

Of course it over ....... thankfully


Big yawn, predictable pattern here. When Spruikers can't deal with the indisputable evidence and fact based comments, they then resort to discrediting the commentator ;-)

Hi Expat,

Nice post!

Likewise for Wellington which has some lovely places to walk and enjoy the environment - and where the housing market is also very active.


Days Bay was always a favourite, perfectly sheltered from the big winds.

Days Bay ,oddly enough ,was there on Thursday, first time. A wonderful coastal spot.


Wow 23% must be the new low.. especially with a decent number being on sale

glad Auckland is not overvalued like Sydney
this is Auckland so could not happen here yada yada

Home sellers drop listed prices by up to 30 per cent in pockets of Sydney
Property experts claim sellers have been forced to accept GFC-level price declines due to a weakening market which makes it difficult to achieve the inflated sums properties were fetching six months or even a year ago.

There is no universal benchmark for saying that Auckland and Sydney are overvalued or undervalued. This is not the physical sciences. Naturally, someone would say "but house prices double every 7-10 years", which is no different than medieval times when people believed in witches and that the Earth is flat. Most of what people believe is what they've gleaned from media and how they've been socialized.

Try Price to Income ratio.

Try the level of affordability to those actually buying. My theoretical home value to gross household income is 9 times, but I’m mortgage free. Metrics mean nothing without context.

But are these metrics about owner occupiers with no mortgage, or are they about what prospective buyers who require a mortgage will face?

But even with a mortgage it depends on the deposit size. So many factors to take into account.

Yeah - agree. It's really a metric for what average mortgage-using buyers will face, eh. Deposit size and how long it takes to save it, interest rates and expectations for them (and inflation) in the future, what consequent stress testing buyers will face.

DTI still has its effects and role.

Try Price to Income ratio.

It's not a benchmark of anything. It's a ratio.

Try the level of affordability to those actually buying. My theoretical home value to gross household income is 9 times, but I’m mortgage free. Metrics mean nothing without context.

Your home being 9x your gross h'hold income is simply a measure at a point in time. It doesn't tell me whether or not your home is over- or under-valued.

Sharetrader, J.C., from zero to owning 28 Sydney properties in eight years. This couple proudly share their success story;

This is simply cringe material!

That's terrible, shouldn't be allowed!!! Tsk tsk

So what? Stories like this a dime a dozen. It doesn't really have any relevance to me as "news."

From Australian property investor of the year 2012 and then 4 years later ... Story on 60 minutes Australia.

What will be the effect of the Aussie Banks' mortgage crisis on the NZ Banks they own ? Will they try to tighten the belts here so more profits can be repatriated across the ditch ? Is our Reserve Bank watching what is happening in Aussie and is it concerned ? How can they ring fence the Banks operating here from the bad effects of Aussie crash, if and when it happens ?

Ring fencing is not possible. The Aussie regulators will not permit capital to be allocated to the NZ subs unless the Aussie operations are of unimpeachable credit. The Aussie banks themselves will likely prefer allocation of capital to the Aussie operations in preference to the NZ subs, which would no doubt be the preference of Aussie regulators. So if the proverbial hits the fan we, not the aussies, will be the residual risk holders in the the NZ subs of the big Aussie banks. Our bank regulator may try to preserve bank capital here in preference to Australia, in which case you would have an almighty political shitefight on our hands.

I have no doubt our regulator is watching Aussie v closely. From memory the RBNZ stress test placed material reliance on Aussie parent co support for the big banks, which is nonsense if the Aussie banks themselves are at the epicentre of the next big bust.

So, Kiwis better make sure that the Aussie banks don't crash, aye, mortgage crisis or not ?

interesting article from the property pumpers nz hearld
good to see they did some smart things
the key to their success was their decision to diversify
"They have also consciously avoided buying too many properties in the "overpriced" Sydney market, as cheaper properties in other areas led to greater cash flow"


This is a normal part of the investment cycle. Much wealth is created when property prices rise and the media reports these stories, as in the current environment, these are stories of public interest.

There will be different stories of public interest when the property market turns, and the media will report stories similar to these ones.

This is very, very far from a normal credit cycle. We are in uncharted territory


Time for NZ's turn in the credit cycle ... -

Yep, Aussie rode the GFC well, but their (and therefore our) luck has now run out

Not just Sydney, London and Vancover are correcting, parts or London down 14%

@sharetrader ............. just like the shareemarket over heating ( which it has done ) the property market too has topped out .

Eventually prices reach levels that make no sense whatsover , the skilled have left the market way before this and the fools get burnt

Well that was funny
This blog beat Jimmy Kimmel guests tonight

The market does appear resilient or is it just being controlled well?
A steady as she goes approach is the plan to prevent an economic meltdown. Lets see.... interest rates kept artificially low...tick, foreign buyer ban still being tossed about with no action...tick, banks still lending $800k mortages with parents equity for security...tick (ie no debt to income lending limits, even though the reserve bank think it's a good idea to protect the desperados), immigration levels still high...tick. The drivers of house price inflation remain in place, with the exception of the capital flight laws in China having an impact. Until the rules change the game will go on. If some of the drivers are modified then we'll see whether it's bubble land or the new norm. A good benchmark is the stock market value and some of the unicorns on there holding up and even on the rise eg A2. Still plenty of cheap credit sloshing about keeping prices pumped up.

Good manners TTP thank you
Zorba likes the RS
Bluff calls it correctly
All Markets are aloft on a sea of debt the DOW experiencing a massive loss in days only to be pumped again.
Only the Chinese have been subdued on Auckland property
I don’t know what or when will be the catalyst but history tells us there will be a major correction
Property may devalue but if owners can meet their debts they can wait out the market.yet that ties up capital earning nothing for years .
The Chinese loved gambling on speculation in property as much as finding a safe foreign park for funds.Now there’s a lull in the market they’ll speculate elsewhere.
NZ will still retain favour its currency well traded
That just leaves Aucklands massive $6Billion debt with no ideas how it will be repaid sucking multi millions a month just to meet the interest bill.
How can you improve city infrastructure with that burden ?

Rp, why is it cringe material?

They are a young couple who have invested in housing and commercial property just like any other business.

However, their 190k income I take it is after all their costs doesn’t seem that great to me on the basis that their portfolio is 17million!

They must have some properties that don’t return a lot or they are putting a lot of money back into the properties thru improvements, which does make sense!

TM2, sharetraders post is yet further evidence OZ house prices are in reverse not unlike London and Canada;

It won't be long before this couples (bank initiated) assessed LVR is approaching say 90%. I am confident banks mood towards them and many others will sour well before then. This couples folly will be identified as the height of complete stupidity by all parties involved, further on the down hill leg.

This couple owe over $10 million based on an historic LVR of 60%. Its ironic every property speculator bites at the bit to share their own unique success stories but are stumped for options in a collapse - no plan in place. Banks pull ALL the strings.

Yeah, I saw that one. It kinda frightened me. The banks exposure to this pair of bubble flunkies is a mere.....AUS$10m. Oh, that’s ok then. I am sure there are lots of stories like this. Here’s the nz equivalent from a few months back, it frightened the bejesus out of me. They have (for now) 30% equity (all shiny and new from the last gasp of the bubble) and a mere $1m debt exposure on no doubt blue chip properties in Hamilton, Rotorua, Lower Hutt and.....Hawera. Hey, what could go wrong?

And another pair, 25 properties since 2010, debt undisclosed but my guess’s somewhere between eye watering and jaw dropping. All built on “recycling” capital gains to take on ever more debt and buy ever more properties. In a market pumped up by crazy lending, interest only loans and mortgage fraud. Again, why worry? It’s all good?

That second pair you mentioned have featured again just today:

December 2016 - Portfolio of 25 properties worth $10.5 Million (average $420k per property)
March 2018 - Portfolio of 28 properties worth $17.3 million. (average $620k per property)

In 15 months, they have increased their portfolio by almost $7 million. That's incredible. Not only has the average value of their properties increased by around 33%, they have also purchased another $1.8 million of properties and still maintained a 60% LVR while paying P & I on their mortgages.

Well, the bubble giveth and the bubble taketh away, so interesting to see where they end up.....30% fall and their equity is pretty much gone, and doesn’t matter how “positive” their gearing is if the banks tell them they need to put more equity in to maintain LVRs (ie they need to sell some properties and pay down debt). Knowing what we now know now about the Aussie mortgage market, I wouldn’t rule anything out.

Bobster, its these pockets of leverage that have the largest consequences on the way down. I guess, it seems so logical to us the audience yet the last thing the players would expect.

I also saw an interesting Australian anslysis of where mortgage stress on the transition of mortgages from interest only to p&i would fall, it’s conclusion was that this stress would be centred on the Aussie equivalent of the leafy suburbs. This is not because it’s where the interest only loan properties were located but because it’s where the borrowers were located. I’ll try to dig it up


I think it is this video -

This video is also interesting -

Cheers, yeah I think that's it. He's good, this guy, but I find what he has to say all a bit scary. I like his shirt. Does he ever wash it? Maybe it's his lucky shirt

Read this. It’s important for 2 reasons:

1. It shows the scale of liar loan and broker fraud: “Bank disclosures suggest that 30 per cent of households with an owner-occupied mortgages have an average income of at least $200,000 a year, an extraordinarily large number of high-income earners. It jumps to 40 per cent for those with investor loans. UBS banking analyst Jonathan Mott has benchmarked the disclosures against the population using Census, ABS and ATO data. His conclusion is that the bank disclosures "do not appear logical and are highly improbable".” That is very scary stuff

2. It highlights the regulatory exposure of Aussie banks under responsible lending legislation: if a bank has provided credit to someone that can't reasonably pay it back, then the whole contract can be voided. So we may see a large number of actions by impecunious borrowers seeking to void their loans. Some are already trying. I mean, that would be.....massive

Wow. Aussie just looks like a slow motion car crash. It’s a bit frightening.

Sounds a little sub-prime.

Wow. NZ has a new census for the first time in a while. I wonder if that will show a similar pattern here.

I wonder how much of the financial information disclosed on the loan application are:
1) misrepresentation by the loan applicant
2) misrepresentation by the mortgage broker, where the loan applicant is unaware of it

Here is an example of the second situation - the mortgage broker filled in the remainder of the loan application (after the loan applicant signed the form) and the overstated her financial assets, whilst understating her financial liabilities.

The huge financial incentives where mortgage brokers only get paid after the loan approval are a dominant factor. A mortgage broker wouldn't want to spend time for a loan applicant and then find that the loan application gets rejected, and the mortgage broker then doesn't receive any compensation for the time spent preparing the loan application. A large percentage of loans are originated from mortgage brokers.

I can see a situation where an unscrupulous mortgage broker could easily take the last page signed by the loan applicant, then combine it with the other sections of the loan application filled in by the mortgage broker (where they overstate income, overstate financial assets, and understate expenses and understate financial liabilities) and then submit the hard copy to the bank for loan approval. The loan applicant would be happy as they received their loan approval, the mortgage broker would be happy as they will get paid for the loan.

The next question is, how prevalent is this in New Zealand?

I don't know, but broker fraud is certainly not a rarity. I thought it would've been mostly liar loans with borrower fraud, but apparently broker fraud (misstatement of borrower financials by broker) is also A Thing. Welcome to the world of the Aussie credit bubble

I think our broker sector is relatively much smaller than Aussies, so I don't know if broker fraud is such a big issue here. There are no doubt liar loans. But the key point is, given the interconnectiveness of our banking sectors, we in NZ are going to wear the consequences one way or the other

And given the huge growth in household debt, and the "mortgage wars" with new entrants (like SBS) coming into the Auckland market, I have no doubt there has been a lowering of underwriting standards and there is lots of junk debt out there.

Anecdotally, there's huge amounts of low-level fraud from marginal customers desperate to get on the gravy train. Producing payslips from temporary jobs and claiming that they're permanent jobs, that kind of thing. Lots of people in this who were never really able to afford it.

Stories about loan application form misrepresentations in Australia ...

Quick scanning the comments on here by all sorts is a wee bit better than animated space movies...

The Commonwealth Bank has admitted the commissions it pays to mortgage brokers can incentivise them to sell risky mortgages to CBA customers, but it does not want to stop the practice until other banks stop it too.

The articles on the young couple from Sydney with the 17 million portfolio has things that dont seem right to me.

If they owe say 10million then at say 4.5% interest only is obviously 450k per annum.

They say they are positively geared until interest rates hit 9%!

10 million at 9%is obviously 900k at interest only!

That is a difference of 450k between the 2 interest rates!

Yet they say there income is currently $190,000 so there is a shortfall of 260k so I can’t see how they can be positively geared to 9% at all!!!

Can anyone explain this to me?????

Well the majority of their mortgages are P & I. So they'd be paying something like $700k per year P & I over 25 years on $10.5 million. $700k + $190k = pulling in $890k and the article mentions "positively geared at interest rates just under 9%".

I actually just had a look at their website under "who we are", it says his 28 properties are "only" worth $12,500,000 and he has a passive income of $300k?

With a current portfolio of 28 properties worth $12,500,000, Scott is one of the most successful young property investors in Australia.

It’s a puff piece in NZH. They have no doubt lifted it from somewhere else. I wouldn’t overthink it, I doubt the details have been verified.

@THE MAN 2 ...........You are 100% onto it .

The "Successful Sydney inveetor " is either the Titanic looking for an iceberg or a load of codswallop

It is just too unbelievable to be real ................ as a retired Banker , I dont know a bank on the planet who would advance this type of debt based on inflated values being used to fund a pyramid pile of other properties.

So thats the first point

The second is that the numbers dont add up , unless they have "interest only " arrangements with the banks , the negative gearing and cashflow squeeze would sink them in weeks rather than months .

Bascially , if you can buy and lease out a Sydney property to cover all the outgoings , Interest , rates , insurance vacancies , repairs and maint , from the rent ...........then quite simply ................ why would anyone ever rent a property ?

If the total cost of ownership equals the rent you would pay .............. why would you be a tenant ?

Unless you are feral -type or an unemployed layabout , who would never get a mortgage , in which case you are a high-risk tenant .

One does not require 2020 vision to see that our successful Sydney investor will be in the Bankruptcy court way before 2020 ....

I don't like to disagree with you, but I suspect there are plenty of banks both here and in Aus who were more than happy to lend money on this basis. Even if it didn't make sense, they had to cos everyone else was doing it: as per perhaps the best banker quote of the GFC, "As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance". Well, I think the music has stopped, and whether they will get all the money back is another issue. I guess some of the bankers and bank shareholders are starting to get very are the regulators, who may well end up looking like fools

I can explain it. It's syndicated garbage from the real estate fluffing media. The narrative they are pushing is that you can't lose with property. The weak minded are easy taken in by such nonsense.

In <5 years they will be like these previous "investors of the year"...

I'd be interested to see some commercial property numbers. Anecdotaly I have heard it is slowing quite quickly.

The commercial market did not get as carried away as the housing market

I dont know about that, from what I have noted in the Ak market returns have halved based on current sale prices versus 4 years ago.

So the market has peaked , the music has stopped , and no a moment too soon

No one cares about National's housing record anymore. Kiwis are now focused on Labour's lack of progress on KiwiBuild. JC told PT: "What they care about is you not building a house yet, mate. You've had 140 days, how many have you built?"

So goes the new talking point - "Don't mention National's <100 houses after nine years. Only the last 140 days should be held accountable!"

Embarrassingly inconsistent, really.

Boatman, the young couple don’t seem to invest in the Sydney market.

However, I also don’t beleive that any Bank would be lending that amount to the young couple based on the LVR ratio nowadays and also the very poor net return of $190k or whatever they think it is.

I know our LVR ratio is far better than theirs and return on borrowing is a helluva lot better than theirs and the Banks toughened up their lending requirements basing repayments on about 7 or 8% P and I.

If the market turned they could find that their financial position is in jeopardy!

Would be very surprised if the figures are coatia!

TM2, you say "if the market turned" ? ummmm, the Sydney market has already turned.

"Coatia", another first for the Bulls of

And about as kosher as the last one you claimed. Stand up and be proud of your false accolades :)

As we all well know Land Agents are not the brightest and best educated in New Zealand. That is why they have to reset to sell property for a living.

Much of this nonsense about "gloom and doom" and "bragging rights" about asset price inflation is dumb. People need to become wise to luck and risk. Wonderful reading from the weekend made me think of the malarkey, nonsense, and straight-up troll poo on house prices.

......experiencing risk makes you recognize that some stuff is out of your control, which is accurate feedback that helps you adjust your strategy. Experiencing luck doesn’t. It generates the opposite feedback: A false feeling that you are in control, because you did something and then got the outcome you wanted. Which is terrible feedback if you’re trying to make good, repeatable long-term decisions.

This is the irony of investing: Risk and luck are different sides of the same coin, but we treat one as critically important, and the other like it doesn’t exist – at least for you, when you succeed. This is partly about ego, but even more about the desire to identify patterns of what works, relishing the thought of repeating those actions to win again in the future. We love narratives that explain things, and the most comfortable narrative is, “I’m good at this and will continue to be good at it.”

Please note that a large number of very low quality comments have been removed from this thread. Silly spruiking, slagging, or other insults are just not needed here. We want this facility to be used for adult conversation.

Thank you David. Please also remove or review the many biased and non-factual comments.
Example this from the very opening comment "Your once proud investment decision now rests on very shaky ground. It hurts like buggery, knowing you missed getting top price" etc etc just sets up a very confrontational communication.

Houseworks, I have taken it upon myself to edit my opening post as in hindsight I feel it was unduly colorful. I trust this goes some way in addressing your concerns and puts an end to your constant trolling.

Stop the nonsense name calling rp you are beginning to look paranoid!

Any questions too hard for you, you side step and start labelling people.

But you would never label anyone right....not even paranoid per your comment above? Just have to set the example that you demand of others...otherwise it just comes across as hypocritical...but then I wouldn't say that I'm pointing that label in your direction, just saying that is a life principle which governs human interaction...

Checking out the houses that went to auction at Shortland St at 1:30pm on 28 February I note that close to 70% have now sold. Purely informational. It is something I would like to track a bit more closely
I feel that sometimes too much weight is put on the auction results, especially in Auckland, as traditionally only a small percentage of houses are sold this way. It has increased in recent years, probably pushed by the agencies to become more like Sydney as well as foreign buyer influence, but may be returning to more traditional norms.

Zachary, on that day 70 went up for auction, 31 sold, giving a clearance rate of 44%;

Correct me if i'm wrong. At your 70% now sold, its taken a further 19 days to sell 18 houses - all from this one auction event. Of more interest here would be the final prices these 18 vendors settled for when compared to 2017 CV (not 2014).

It's one tough market. Auckland average days to sell is now 49 and steadily rising. It's the highest since 2011.

Retired-Poppy I don't know the statistics for the entire 70 as I was only looking at the 31 that appeared at the auction I attended however, yes, the final prices these vendors settled for would be very interesting. I would agree that the market is tougher now than in recent years and would be similar to 2011 I imagine. Anything a bit untidy or problematic would be a trial for a vendor currently. I have been saying that FHBs should be on the look out for easy do-ups and also no rush.

David, do you think that Gordon’s comment is a legitimate claim?

This reminds me a little of the Church (of REA and Darklords) convicting Galileo (Gordon) for crimes of heresy - simply because it was beyond their capacity to believe that the Earth may not in fact be the centre of the universe.