Harcourts sold more homes in July but prices were weaker overall, particularly in Auckland

Harcourts average selling prices dropped back in July but sales volumes and new listings both improved.

Harcourts is the country's largest real estate agency and sold 1745 residential properties throughout the country in July, up 3.6% compared to June and up 7.3% compared to July last year.

There was an even more substantial lift in new listings which rose to 2027 in July, up 24.1% compared to June and up 14.1% compared to July last year.

However prices were softer, with the average selling price easing to $598,409 in July, down 3.0% compared to June but still up 3.6% compared to July last year.

Prices were weakest in Auckland where the average dropped to $877,088 in July, down by $46,260 (-4.99%) compared to June, and down by $132,003 (-13.1%) compared to July last year.

Prices were also down in Harcourts' central North Island region which includes Waikato and Bay of Plenty, where the average price in July was $469,798, -9.7% compared to June and -1.3% compared to July last year.

Prices went against the trend and rose in the Wellington region where the average selling price of $513,180 in July was up 4.4% compared to June, and up 12.2% compared to July last year.

There was also a modest rise in Christchurch where July's average price was $555,772, up 0.4% compared to June and up 13.8% compared to July last year.

Harcourts also experienced an increase in auction activity in July, with the agency auctioning 476 properties, up 30% compared to June and up 6.7% compared to July last year.

"We urge anyone who is on the fence about their method of sale to remember that an auction's greatest strength is that that it will give you an accurate reflection of exactly where the market is and what your property is worth," Harcourts Chief Executive Chris Kennedy said.

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56 Comments

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16

I know averages aren't the be all and end all but damn, Auckland down by 13.1% compared to July last year. Warms my heart a little and makes me feel better about sitting on my hands.

Don't celebrate. REINZ data has Auckland region median for July 2016 825k, 2017 830k, 2018 835k. Rising at a little under inflation.

Yes, and the REINZ stratified index (which is a better indicator of values, not sale price) has Auckland up 1.6% YOY last month.

Since March 2016, 80801 Auckland homes, about 14 percent of housing stock have been sold, in which time the median price is the same today as it was then. This is the longest period of nil house price growth this century in Auckland. House sales will continue to fall, house prices will gradually decline
The median is a very simple measure , odd that it is one of only two measures that are constantly quoted when house prices are rising.

That's a lot of buyers who got to the dinner table after the food had been taken away.

14% suggests you have housing stock at 577,150. Projecting from 2013 census figures, OWNED stock (i.e. not rented) in Auckland is currently about 289,000. owner occupied sales, regrettably , are not itemised separately to sold rented property (v irritating for an analyst!). So, looking solely at the 80,801 sales in toto, that is 6.2% annualised. Owned stock sells at around 4.5% pa and that is obviously slowing. In article above also, I note the nauseating habit of saying "softer" meaning falling. Anything to avoid Anglo-Saxon of "fell."

If the averages were up 13% i'm sure a static median figure would be ignored.

I will celebrate for two reasons. If averages are down and median is up then that means there are some cheap places being unloaded. Secondly, a big part of the house price equation is confidence, you tell your typical aucklander that the average house price is down 13% and I’m betting their confidence would take a big hit.

Whitay, it will not just warm your heart but your hands too (sitting on them that is)

Now what's the name of that sleeping drug that Elon Musk likes? I may start importing it!

Doesnt matter which way you spin it, the Auckland boom is well and truly over!

Only way is down from here...

Boom was over quite some time ago - 2016/17

Good time now to negotiate before the upward phase of the cycle starts in a few years time.

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13

Nah... the only way you buy at the moment is if you can purchase at 30% off. Otherwise just sit back and watch.

"before the upward phase of the cycle starts in a few years time."

Yes it could be 10 years before that happens, but in the meantime you can expect Auckland to to have quite a decent decline and if global markets bust it could be a dramatic decline.

Could be a cold Christmas for the Auckland Property market, if you're lucky scrooge might give you a piece of coal! Wouldn't hold my breath though....

2021/22

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11

Property prices 2 keep falling

How much, and by when?

I'm giving you an opportunity to redeem yourself with a correct prediction, given your track record of being wrong for the past 8 years.

Here's one for you Buy low... If prices go up by 50% over a period of time, they only need to fall 33% to get back to where they started.

33.333...%

And a 1% rise in house prices today is twice as much capital gains as a 1% rise in 2011.

Well done. I had worried that I had already overcomplicated things for you.

Now Buy-low, these property seminars where you get all your wonderful information, have they started playing 'snakes and ladders' yet to explain the future market or are they all still 'fist pumping and high fiving' to the sound of 'We are the Champions?'

The latter. Sometimes chest bumping also.

I really need to go and watch one for a laugh. Who's the funniest speaker to watch? Is Tony Alexander still doing them?

I think I saw Tony preaching on Queen St, yelling "Repent! Repent of your avocado eating ways and buy up my meth houses!"

As I stated in my other posts. Results is the answer, as is the case in this article. .

I see you berating everyone who don't agree with you, as you realize you didn't keep up to your name. . What a pity

"We urge anyone who is on the fence about their method of sale to remember that an auction's greatest strength is that that it will give you an accurate reflection of exactly where the market is and what your property is worth," ...
misleading statement, Auction will give what the attending Bidder(s) on the day are prepared to pay for the property, other buyer on a different day could pay more or less, One bidder cannot decide the value of a property !! ... Hence Auctions are not suitable for a quiet market.
that is why many are sold after a property is passed in ...

The wise are buying - the otherwise will miss out again

Well said

Eco Bird, you are a very wise person!
You are right one person bidding does not show the true market value of a property, and that is why I love auctions.
If you are the only one bidding or with the ability to bid then quite often you will buy well under market value, if you know what you are doing!
Yes, the wise are buying at the moment and as I keep saying, there are always opportunities on every market.
The ones that are hoping the market continues to drop are the ones who will continue to moan and groan and still be in the same financial position in a years time.

Down, down...prices are down!

By the way, Rodney has a lot more stock than in 2013, due to all building being done. Yet its sales do not reflect this. Hibiscus Coast especially.

Sales are up in the areas that the new houses are being built, probably at the expense of other HBC and Rodney suburbs.

It should be Wait and Watch for all FHB.

That's precisely why they are FHB's, because they have been waiting & watching

FHBs should hold tight till Auckland house prices go down to 2002 levels over the next couple of years. Your $700k should be able to buy a full-site 4-bedroom DGZ villa that has a 2017 CV of $2.5M.

"Many a true word is spoken in jest"

What on earth makes you think properties in prime Auckland areas will drop by 70%?!

.

A follow-up to a question yesterday (Nic Johnson?) re "Why would a problem apartment sell for such a discount?"
"Unit owners face $7 million bill - Only 85 apartments in the complex were affected, yet all 200 owners have to pay a special levy to fix the problem. Each owner faces a $10,000 levy per quarter instead of the current $3000 for at least five years – something they worry will deter future buyers…"
https://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential/nsw/sydney-unit-owners-face-...

There are over 30,000 residential properties for sale in NZ right now, and over 10,800 in the Auckland region alone.
Why is every one going on about the "housing crisis" when so much stock is on the market?
If there really was a housing crisis or shortage there should be only a handful for sale at any one time, and the auction houses should have a 99% strike rate.
nstead they struggle to get over 40% away.

There's a 'debt' crisis/shortage! Let any 'average' Kiwi go into their bank and ask for a mortgage and find out what a forensic investigation feels like! The days of "But I've got a 10% deposit!" and that was good enough are over. Now, if there isn't enough surplus disposable to meet the 'new' criteria - it's "Good luck with your search for a mortgage!".

BD, 30'000 properties for sale doesn't mean 30'000 empty properties

Shall we start a book on how many properties will be 'for sale' by Christmas?

30,393 Listings on trade me today. I'm going put my hat in the ring and say that will hit 35,000 by Christmas.

amended - it's already risen to 30,397 in 4 minutes!

30,398... Wow this is like watching the NZ mortgage debt clock.. It's like a time bomb!

There will be more like 50,000 then .

Which will be great !

Just counted 347 new listings just today.

There is also currently 167 properties in Auckland region that come up with the key word Reduced. Will be interesting to see the the number by the end of year, my guess it will more than double.

30,407. now

Had a look over the listings from yesterday and Kiwi's are obviously very fickle when it comes to how long they like to own a house for because there are a large portion of the new listings (over 50%) where the owners purchased between 2014 and 2017...lots in 2015 and 2016. Has someone let the cat out of the bag that the credit tap is now a trickle rather than the Huka Falls it had been!

Hi BD,

Wish it was a simple as the math used.

Auckland needs 45000 to satisfy the current demand, this needs to be broken down into Price brackets - my guess is most of the demand falls in the the affordable under $600K - where the problem is.

There is no shortage of under and over $1M+ properties whether old or new but these are just enough to satisfy the demand in this category and then some. In fact there are plenty of choices in the 800 - 1,2M new homes ATM.

IF, and when, the Gov of the day builds the thousands of KB or equivalent at the lower quartile price range then the Crisis will miraculously disappear.

However, the amount of activity in housing ATM remains the undeniable proof of a healthy market and economy despite all the bad press and all attempts to convince buyers otherwise.

The capable wise are buying when they need to taking advantage of a stable market full o choices, the capable otherwise are waiting for a miracle or a seismic shift -- forgetting that they only have a narrow window of about two years before the new cycle kicks in again.

and how many properties have you purchased recently Mr Wise???

I have a little more than you could count Mr Otherwise...lol
So don't need any more!

Bought one last Thursday thegic!
The housing market is just not Auckland.
Prices continue to rise in Christchurch as people see the value and the growth of a new city.
Those that hesitate will miss out.
Christchurch is going to be the city of choice in the future!

please post the link to what you've bought.

Why on earth would I do that?
Once I did that it what would be the point in being “The Man”?

Looking to feed your property envy?

Thank you Eco Bird for a coherent and concise comment.

Aussie on the up again. Tenants and those waiting are now giving up again.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=121...