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Our changing migration patterns: Net migration numbers are falling back from their recent highs but migration is still increasing in some areas and declining in others

Our changing migration patterns: Net migration numbers are falling back from their recent highs but migration is still increasing in some areas and declining in others

By Greg Ninness

Migration patterns are changing.

In the 12 months to June migration added another 64,995 souls to this country’s population, according to Statistics NZ, which while still hugely high by historical standards, was down by 10.1% from the net gain of 72,305 for the 12 months to June 2017 and down 5.9% compared to the net gain of 69,090 in the 12 months to June 2016.

But the net gain is not just declining, the rate of decline is getting greater.

In the fourth quarter of last year the net gain from migration was down 4.8% compared to the same quarter of 2016, by the first quarter of this year the net gain was down 9.2% compared to the first quarter of last year, and in the second quarter of this year it was down 20.4% compared to a year earlier.

So not only is migration slowing, the rate at which it is slowing is increasing, suggesting there’s a way to go before we hit the bottom.

And it’s not just a case of fewer people coming to New Zealand that is driving net migration down, the mix of who is arriving, and just as importantly, who is leaving, is changing.

In the year to June 129,536 people arrived in this country intending to stay for 12 months or more, while half as many (64,541) departed long term, giving the net gain of 64,995.

 

The 10.1% decline in the net gain was partly caused by a 1.4% drop in the number of people coming to New Zealand compared to the previous 12 months, but mostly by a 9.3% increase in the number of people leaving the country long term.

A large proportion of the people coming and going are New Zealand citizens.

Of the 129,536 new arrivals in the 12 months to June, 31,885 (24.6%) were New Zealand citizens, while 33,655 New Zealand citizens headed in the opposite direction and left the country, making up 52% of the long term departures.

So just slightly more New Zealanders left the country long term in the 12 months to June than arrived back after an extended stay overseas, giving a net loss of 1770 New Zealand citizens over the year.

The trend since 2012 was for the number of New Zealanders coming back to this country to increase each year, while the number leaving was declining, but over the last 12 month period, arrivals have started edging down compared to previous years while departures have been edging up.

But the change is only slight and it is probably still too early to say whether that is the start of a longer term trend.

However the net loss of 1770 New Zealand citizens in the 12 months to June was very low by historic standards and you only need to go back to 2012 when the net loss was 39,507.

If the net outflow of New Zealanders did start to head back up to 2012 levels it could slash this country’s net population gain from migration to under 30,000 a year, even if migration trends from other countries remained unchanged.

But at the moment, it is changes in the mix of non-New Zealand citizens that is having the biggest effect on changing migration patterns.

In the 12 months to June, 97,651 citizens of other countries arrived in New Zealand on a long term basis.

That was down 1.5% compared to the same period of the previous year and the decline has been evident since the fourth quarter of last year.

But there has been an even bigger jump in the number of non-New Zealand citizens leaving the country long term.

That jumped to 30,886 in the 12 months to June, up 20.8% compared to the previous 12 months.

The trend for more non-citizens to leave the country has been evident since the third quarter of 2016, so is now well established.

And it is gathering pace.

With fewer non-NZ citizens arriving and more leaving, the net gain of non-NZ citizens in the 12 months to June was 66,765, down 9.3% compared to the previous 12 months.

But where are these people coming from, or going to?

Let’s look at the six countries that have the biggest impact on our migration patterns.

Australia

Australia has long been a magnet for New Zealanders and that hasn’t changed.

In the 12 months to June 20,616 New Zealanders left this country for Australia and that figure has been almost flat for the last three years.

There are also quite a few New Zealanders who return to this country from Australia and that number has declined over the last two years, from 16,739 in year to June 2016 to 14,848 in the year to June 2018.

That has seen the net loss of New Zealand citizens to Australia increase from 3480 in year to June 2016 to 5768 in in the year to June 2018, but the change has been driven mainly by fewer kiwis coming back than more kiwis departing, although there was an increase in New Zealanders departing for Australia in the second quarter of this year.

The decline in kiwis coming back from Australia has been largely balanced by an increase in the number of Australian citizens arriving here long term, which means long term departures to Australia are almost matched by long term arrivals.

So for the moment, the overall impact of migration to and from Australia on the total gain from all countries, is negligible, even though the two way traffic across the Tasman is heavy.

China

China is our biggest source of migrants apart from returning New Zealanders.

In the 12 months to June there were 12,417 long term arrivals from China and Hong Kong, which was down 9.3% from the 13,690 that arrived in the previous 12 months.

Also over the 12 months to June, 3579 people departed this country long term for China and Hong Kong, which was up 40.4% compared to the previous 12 months.

That combination of fewer arrivals and more departures has seen the net gain from China and Hong Kong drop from 11,140 in the 12 months to June last year, to 8838 in the 12 months to June this year (-20.7%).

China is the biggest source of people coming on residency visas, and in the year to June 2985 Chinese citizens came on residency visas.

But that was down 19.6% % on the previous 12 months, and just under the figure for the 12 months to June 2016.

So the trend is for fewer Chinese people coming here to live.

China is also the second biggest source country for overseas students studying here, after India, but those numbers are also down.

In the 12 months to June this year, 5041 Chinese citizens arrived here on student visas, down 14.8% compared to the previous 12 months and down 15.1% compared to two years previously.

But China is also a significant source of people coming here to work and those numbers are rising.

In the 12 months to June, 2505 Chinese citizens arrived in this country on work visas, up 25.9% compared to the previous 12 months.

The numbers of Chinese workers arriving has doubled since 2014 and if that trend continues there will soon be more Chinese citizens arriving on work visas than residency visas.

So the overall picture for China is that we have fewer arriving from that country, mainly because of a decline in those coming to live or study here, partly offset by a rise in those coming to work.

And more Chinese are leaving this country after an extended stay, probably at the end of their studies or work contracts.

India

In 2015 and 2016 India was the biggest source of migration-driven population growth, contributing net gains of more than 12,000 in each of those years.

But the numbers have fallen away dramatically since then, with a net gain of just 6816 in the 12 months to June this year, down 43.8% since the same period two years earlier.

That’s been caused by a 30.5% drop in new arrivals from India, and a doubling of long term departures to India over the same period.

That has mainly been caused but a sharp drop in the number of students coming from India to study here, and by a lesser degree in fewer Indians coming on residency visas.

In the 12 months to June 2016 10,133 Indian citizens arrived on student visas, but by the 12 months to June this year that number had declined by 37.5% to 6334.

Over the same period the number of Indian citizens arriving on residency visas declined from 1397 to 1174, a decline of 16%.

United Kingdom

There is huge two way migration between this country and the UK but a major proportion of that is made up of New Zealand citizens.

In the 12 months to June, 14,242 people arrived from the UK, and 4920 of those (34.5%) were New Zealand citizens returning home after an extended stay.

The percentage of kiwis heading in the opposite direction is even greater, with New Zealand citizens making up the majority (50.7%) of the people who left this country long term for the UK over the same period.

The figures suggest the number of New Zealanders arriving from or going to the UK has been relatively stable for the last couple of years, but there has been a decline in the number of UK citizens arriving here long term.

In the 12 months to June, 10,520 UK citizens came to New Zealand long term and 8293 (78.8%) were on work visas, with another 1157 (11%) on residency visas.

The total number of UK citizens coming to this country long term in the 12 months to June was down 9.1% compared to the previous 12 months.

That follows seven years of consecutive increases in UK citizens migrating to New Zealand.

South Africa

Migration from South Africa has increased more than six fold over the last five years, rising from a net gain of 761 in the 12 months to June 2013, to 4983 in the 12 months to June this year, and it’s continuing to increase.

Just over half of South African citizens who arrived in the 12 months to June were on work visas, with another 25% on residency visas, while student and long term visitor visas made up the balance.

Interestingly, there were less than 300 people who left New Zealand for South Africa on a long term basis in the 12 months to June, and the numbers departing have been around the same low levels for the last five years.

That suggests that if South Africans are leaving this country at the end of their studies or work contracts, they are not returning to their homeland.

They are either going elsewhere, or gaining New Zealand residency after they arrive.

Philippines

The migration numbers for the Philippines are a little bit tricky.

They show that total arrivals from that country have more than doubled over the last five years, but have flattened out at just over 5000 a year over the last couple of years.

In the 12 months to June there were 5135 arrivals from the Philippines and 597 long term departures back to that country, giving a net gain of 4538.

Long term departures to the Philippines have been steadily increasing for the last four years.

However the figures also show that 6606 Philippine citizens arrived in the 12 months to June, which is 1471 more people than the total long term arrivals from the Philippines.

A possible explanation is that a large part of the Philippine work force is based outside of their own country and they may travel between countries as work opportunities arise.

So it seems likely that a significant proportion of Philippine citizens coming to this country arrive here from a country other than their own.

Of the 6606 Philippine citizens who arrived here in the 12 months to June, 57% were on work visas and 25% were students.

While the number arriving on work visas has increased by 45.9% over the last two years, Philippine student numbers have declined by 27.2% over the last two years.

All numbers in this article are based on Statistics NZ migration data.

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86 Comments

Interesting stats. Breaking the data into nationalities is not particularly useful especially when many of those Kiwis leaving NZ were not born Kiwis. What is needed but is unavailable is a way of splitting all immigrants into beneficial to NZ and non-beneficial.

The words 'decline' and 'falling back' makes it sound as if the tide has turned but it hasn't.

60k people per year do have an impact. Auckland is busy building houses, building roads and rail and there are 12 schools being constructed with teachers being trained to fill them - from these numbers that expenditure is not for Kiwis moving back to NZ.

Expect it to get worse. Labour = National lite. Still no foreign buyer register of land titles. This year Labour are scrapping departure cards so it will take longer to figure our how many kiwis have fled to Australia for the long term.

Nick SmithPhil Twyfool was out this weekend showing off "kiwi"build houses which will go to immigrants. Fake GDP be damned it needs to stop. We're selling our heritage for nothing. In the office I work in half the people don't speak English at lunch.

Everybody still has arrival cards. Want to know how many kiwis left nz to go live in Oz.. ask the Ozzie's.

A comparison with Australia: "In 2016-17, it received 183,608 permanent migrants, 67 per cent of whom were skilled migrants. Most of the others were family members of residents. About 21 per cent of migrants were from India, 15 per cent from China and 9 per cent from the United Kingdom. About 1,500 permanent migrants came from Singapore. The number of migrants in 2017-18 fell to about 162,000.", as Scott Morrison rightly put it, reducing skilled immigrants is simply "cut your nose to spite your face". The vast majority of skilled immigrants (esp. IT skills) are from India and Asia who contributes 33% tax to your economy. To reduce that means you have instead a large number of unskilled refugees (mostly from Europe) who DO NOT contribute any tax but draw on your welfare fund. It takes a courageous politician to say it as it is (even if not palatable to the whites, and does not sound policitically correct!?). That is the truth. The solution is to distribute the immigrants population so that they do not all live in the big cities but to spread them out. There is plenty of land everywhere in Au and NZ. The solution is to build infrastructure everywhere and to create jobs everywhere.

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its obviously the COL strategy - not to change the rules but instead make it less attractive to Kiwi's to come home and more attractive for them to leave -

All the promises from the COL parties to slash immigration have led to ZERO policy changes to that effect - in fact the major policy change was to grant an additional huge number of visas to migrant seasonal workers

Basically if the tap was turned off tomorrow , it would probably only take four to five years to catch up with building enough houses for those that area already here - and also significantly reduce the pressures on our infrastructure health, education and social services.

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The COL did say greatly reduced numbers of immigrants when electioneering started but all three backed down as the election approached and since gaining power have been very tepid at actually doing anything - in fact the one common feature is finding excuses for more immigrants; ref to build the houses, to build that Chinese hotel, to keep dairying and tourism going in rural NZ, etc.

The small movement back towards an economically sane level of immigration (but it remains way higher than most developed countries) has several causes and in order of significance
a) slight tightening of rules asking for higher wages for permanent residency [IMHO still scandalously low]. That was National before the last election
b) Expanding labour inspectorate - every week there is another headline about worker exploitation and usually some action. Praise or blame to Labour's Mr Lees-Galloway; he does actually seem to care about rorts and corruption which exploit immigrants and reward dishonest businesses unlike his unpleasant/uncaring predecessor. However this week we learn that there is no money to deport immigrants who break the law - I wish they had no money to proescute me when I'm speeding or parking in the wrong place.
c) NZ's reputation has been damaged because of cases of extreme exploitation that have been reported back in the country of origin. [IMHO having our immigration level partly decided by our bad reputation is wrong. It will be many of the best Indians and Filipinos who will be dissuaded and the desperate who will arrive].

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Once the MMP government took office I think they saw how dependent the economy had become (in an unsustainable way I should point out) to inbound arrivals. As we know it made economic activity levels boyant but the costs have been unacceptable. So instead of a big bang approach like National no mates used in its reform years during the early 90s a more measured and 'telegraphed' approach has been put to work which I think will allow a gradual ramping down without causing a shock to the sectors of the economy that are fed by immigration. Now if they could take the same approach to tourism....

Imagine the outroar if Labour actually dropped migration numbers overnight and obliterated the economy....

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Some would find a way to blame Labour while absolving National of any responsibility in creating the dependence on the sugar rush in the first place.

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Apart from the large number of students, what skills areas are most of the Chinese and Indian migrants filling?

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Bakeries, liquor outlets, service stations manager/owners, landlords, just about any food franchise you can name, cleaning franchises, there is such an incredible shortage of all the aforementioned. Could be more, but you get the gist.

Any small business or business that is basically just providing one with an occupation. Trades like painters and tilers. Small importers who have contacts back in China do quite well also.

East Asians with an IQ generally higher than Europeans should do quite well here, but I hope they are being responsible importers. Bringing in products nearly or entirely unfit for purpose is no good for NZ. It is now hard to find even a belt that lasts.

It's extremely wasteful but regarding clothing the concept now is to discard items after the first season or even sooner. Clothes should look new at all times as well as be low cost.

With other things I have noticed Chinese importers getting better with good after sales service and improving quality. They are catching on to the need for returning customers. I have bought three cars recently from an importer because their prices were very competitive, they provided a warranty, their product perfect and their after sales follow up was great. they seemed to care that you were getting a good deal. I spoke to the owner and he confirmed that his focus was on quality and getting return customers and sales by word of mouth.

However I think furniture, kitchen and bathroom fittings and even appliances are going the clothing route. Kitchens cabinets, for example, should be replaced as soon as they get tired which is quite soon. looks great, is cheap, but doesn't last. I don't agree with the idea but it keeps business churning for that last fill of the glass!

Didge: IQ is always cultural. There is no test that covers all cultures. Certainly tiger mothers and competitive schooling can boost results in IQ tests by just a few points but two overlapping bell curves does not prove anything about any single person. I have trouble with the IQ median changing with time; every decade they have to readjust the figures to keep 100 as the median. This should mean youngsters are far brighter than me and my elderly peer group but other than their undoubted ability with TV remotes I see no evidence they are brighter and plenty of evidence that they are dumber.
Relevant to your IQ racist point - really bright Indians leave India for California and for Cambridge silicon fen. So it is a select group of Indians who come to NZ to study and work and attempt to attain residency: the average minus the really talented (of course the couple of Kiwi Indians I am friends with are exceptions).

Didge Lapun.... it also hugely depends on the broader skill set including "soft" skills that a migrant possesses. The frequently mentioned criticism of "tiger parenting" is that the children do not develop creative thinking, robust social skills and may also be emotionally fragile, brittle or inflexible. Good at following orders and passing tests, prepared to work long hours and undoubtedly disciplined. If that child plans a career path in China that may all be a desirable thing but that is much less likely to be true of a career in the West.

My grandson's best friend is the son of a classic Chinese tiger mother but he suffers none of the faults you mention. So long as maternal love swamps everything else all is OK.
What is probably more significance is the correlation between IQ and success is rather lower than most of us believe. It is rather like strength and athleticism being a requirement for being an All Black but determination is the most important characteristic.

gingerninja: ginger is orange and ninja is black - the colour scheme of tigers - are you a tiger parent yourself?

Speaking of IQ propagation, the opening scene from ioiocracy seems appropriate.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwZ0ZUy7P3E

IMHO National accelerated the process by selling all the homes of the future doctors lawyers and engineers to wealthy foreign buyers (in Auckland).

IQ is the product of culture, if I was going to pick a culture to import correlated with IQ - I'd go for Scandanavia and get strong social values as a bonus.

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Number of people granted Essential Skills work visas by main occupations, 2016/17

Chef 2,178 6.6%
Dairy Cattle Farm Worker 1,617 4.9%
Carpenter 1,478 4.5%
Retail Supervisor 961 2.9%
Cafe or Restaurant Manager 942 2.9%
Retail Manager (General) 767 2.3%
Aged or Disabled Carer 748 2.3%

No nationality for those figures - I doubt if all the Chefs are from France.

hardly people that will be bidding for Auckland property

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Presumably the titles are inflated, ie chef is vege peeler, retail supervisor means shelf stacker, retail manager is checkout operator, or am I being overly cynical?

Bunnings Warehouse has a Customer Liaison Officer posted at the entrance of every store.

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some of these guys are charging people money to get the title of vege-peeler so they can get residency. I know of people who get residency by paying the guy at the chinese vege shop to say they have a job. We now have our very own indentured labour system or modern day slavery. I know other people in the brothel sector who also use this system.

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A friend of mine worked alongside a "Kitchen Manager" who was actually a dishwasher, in a flash Auckland Thai restaurant. Said another worker at the restaurant had no right to work in NZ and was working for cash under the table...and under the minimum rate.

Why must we allow these visa rorts and exploitation of migrants to continue?

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Report it. Those who know about the situation and don't report it have already accepted the practice into their moral & ethical grey area.

Report it and the exploited immigrant is kicked out, the employer is hit with a wet bus ticket if INZ can be bothered proving and prosecuting, the officials who granted the visa are not effected and their bosses get a pay rise. The entire system is designed to keep wages low so the lower classes don't get uppity and to provide services (fast food, care-giving, sex workers) as cheap as possible for the wealthy class. Massive immigration helps home owners too.

That is the problem. Most people who are being exploited will not report it because they're worried about losing their ability to stay in NZ.

Agreed. Commenters blame the immigrant, they blame the agents in 3rd world countries selling a dream to the naive, they blame the employer and they blame lack of enforcement by INZ but put the blame where it really lies: with our govt of all parties for permitting policies that are almost designed to result in rorts and dis-honesty.
Simply unfair to the unemployed and under-employed and low paid Kiwis and also unfair to honest businesses.

Except in many cases the exploited migrant is allowed to stay and even given better Visa conditions where they can then negotiate the value of their skills for at least a legal minimum amount if not vastly better and more comparable to industry averages. Especially in cases of exploitation the immigrant has a far better chance of staying and becoming less indebted than if they stick with an employer whose ethics is at a level from the floor to the height of a dog turd. Unfortunate again that the locals are so uninformed about what modern day slavery & exploitation looks like. They often have an archaic stereotype but fail to see the levels of financial debt & physical abuse many people will accept to travel to a country with a public health system & pension. It is path of the course now and if they cannot afford a high level degree many will choose the route of exploitation and still fail to stay due to that exploitation going past the point of disgusting abhorrence. Even my brother in law would not consider return due to the high likelihood of being killed in his home country, and a few friends while wined and dined in China due to their heritage they still have to travel under a false name to go back there. The bonus of a country where you can debate a government policy and not be put in jail for holding any personal view is actually a security blanket many NZders have forgotten they carry around with them.

worth more than a thumbs up.

Just look at your local Westfield mall - massage places, nail salons, and $2 shops.

Sound like lil Britain, we have the homeless, the traffic jams and now the nail salons, soon we will have the pollution and people trying to bring in their own laws.

The disaggregated data is quite interesting.
Out of 129,009 permanent and long term arrivals in the year to June, only 13,551 were for residence. About 70k were for student or work visas.
Has anyone done any analysis on what the disaggregated data means for housing?
The headline 129k figure is scary but I would have thought that given that 70k relates to student or work visas the impact on housing demand may be less significant on housing than the headline figure suggests?

Note you arrive with one visa (say student) and then you apply for other visas (say permanent residency) while in NZ. So permanent residency granted was 37K for last year (latest stats released recently); do not be confused by that 13K figure.

I did it myself in 2002 arriving for a holiday (planned to be 2 to 4 weeks), being persuaded by a Kiwi friend to apply for residency (total disbelief that thay would let me in since I was over 50) so stayed on achieving work visa and then permanent residency and other than short holidays been here ever since. Puzzled they let me in (I was a very experienced computer programmer) and even more puzzled at all the others NZ are now letting in who have brought 3rd world wages to the jobs my children are now applying for.

Welcome to NZ we have had third world wages for years. Stats on this would be interesting I wonder how many more people each year are gobbled up by the minimum wage ?

Low wages: partly immigration and goes back years because there has been high immigration for 75 years but it was rather disguised when immigrants were POMs. Second reason is simple low productivity - once apon a time Kiwis were the worlds most productive workers but now we are way behind other countries including some Asian and some ex-communist. The big debate is whether bringing in immigrants help or hinder; my answer 'it depends on the immigrant' and I doubt all those 'chefs and retail managers are helping'.

The POMS I know including ourselves that emigrated in 1974 came here with very specific skills to fill jobs that we got BEFORE we even arrived in New Zealand. How things have changed, people pouring in now to fill jobs that don't exist or are highly qualified and end up driving taxis. Things have gone backwards in this country. If you raised the minimum wage to the level of the "Living Wage" then there must be over 40% of the population in this category. Many people if you asked them for an honest opinion would consider this country 3rd world for them.

Brits who can’t land expected jobs at reasonable pay will gracefully return to their home country.
Migrants from third world are vulnerable and are willing to settle for low pay and abysmal work conditions since going back isn’t an option for them.
Minimum wages, damp housing and exploitative employers in NZ are heavenly pleasures compared to what some migrants have waiting for them back in their home countries.

You call it settling for low pay and abysmal work conditions however powerdownkiwi has taught me that by using the "many splendoured think" magic of "perspective" these are actually "long-term-sustainability skills".

I spent last season sailing Tonga. Looked hard at where they are at.

They have no idea of CC, no understanding of the rort that is finance/banking, no understanding that it is the First-World rate of consumption that is unsustainable. They simply want to be like us.

But - they have less distance to fall. They have rich soil and year-round growing. They go 3 months without sugar, and just shrug their shoulders. If we see a collapse of global finance (and barring a debt-jubilee it's hard to see another scenario) then they will adjust better than we.

Imagine Mrs Average Kiwi frantically stabbing at her phone in her SUV in the supermarket carpark - having seen rows of empty shelves........ I'd put my money on the Tongans.....

They are about to learn the power of compounding.

"Lord Tu'ivakano who had recently been to China, said that there had been negotiation with Chinese officials to extend the loan grace period from five years to 10 years.

Chinese officials had insisted for the grace period remain at five years, though they told the PM and his delegation in China that they would write and inform them of their final decision.

The first repayment of the interest amounts to $11 million, but with interest plus principal, the amount due is $24 million."
https://matangitonga.to/2013/09/18/china-defers-repayment-tongas-multi-m...

China learned from the IMF and the World Bank. Pounds of flesh are always painful :)

"they have less distance to fall"... yes the lifespan is much shorter and more brutal (medically).

That reminds me of my friends father from UK, must of been in the 70's as well, he was the only one that could do what he did in NZ at the time. I think it was for steel making furnace in NZ steel the KOBM and a continuous slab casting machine, which was new.

Hmm, not really. People earn less than the equivalent of $16 for a whole day of work in South Africa.

And every year, those 37,000 newly minted permanent residents immediately qualify to buy a Kiwibuild house. How many are Labour building again?

Net ZERO houses. The developers are building them with or without Kiwibuild. Twyfool's got this great deal though - if you put the KiwiBuild logo on the plans the tax payers will guarantee your profits. And they'll do a really crap job of it too, face the windows south, put one power point in each room, it's guaranteed to sell!

They're not built by or for kiwis and they're not building more houses. Double speak.

Do you have any actual facts to back this up? Where is the data that says they aren't built by or for kiwis? Are we now requiring all builders and buyers to be citizens? And the videos I saw of the latest development, showed lots of power points in the rooms. And facing South, so what? Is there some building requirement on which way a house *must* face? If so, we have a lot of houses to tear down that were built by your grandparents. The same houses that had no double glazing, no heat and no insulation other than the mold that built up in the walls.

Nice try.

I thought houses faced in all directions as they tend to have a minimum of 4 walls, each facing outwards.

Have a look for yourself they're bringing in foreigners to do "kiwi" build: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/105040475/kiwibuild-visa-repla...

"the latest development, showed lots of power points in the rooms". You are missing the point here. There is no incentive for the developer to actually sell the house. It's already as good as sold to you and I the tax payers. If they had to sell it to the market they might think about these things.

" Is there some building requirement on which way a house *must* face? " Most people (the ones that are not vampires) like sun. My contention is not so much the low quality but the fact that we expect people (tax payer or not) to pay top dollar for it. At least my grandparents houses didn't cost $650k for a 2 bedder.

Instead of focusing on value for money by reforming building standards, costly council red tape, material monopolies etc etc etc. PT is just making little ghettos of rabbit hutches. Affordable to me means a cheaper slice of pie. Affordable in politician double speak means smaller slice of pie.

Nice try Phil.

Have you had your head buried in the sand over the last week? They have been talking about overriding Auckland councils planning regime to get houses built.

37,000 new residents but not all in Auckland, a few leave and some are singles and some are families so need for housing in Auckland - maybe 10k to 15k per year? However we still have to house many of the 52,000 from two years ago - they can't stay in student accomodation forever.

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People are sick of the level of immigration - kiwis born and having grown up in kiwi land don't like having to live in rentals because there is a housing shortage resulting from hundreds of thousands of new immigrants flooding into kiwi land. Housing is a resource and the housing shortage is the result of a decrease in housing per capita, if you increase the population you decrease the amount of housing per capita (conversely if you depopulate then you increase the amount of housing per capita) and a decrease in housing per capita means some kiwis end up not owning a house and in some cases not being able to live in a house. I've got friends that have spent periods of time being homeless because they can find accommodation due to the accommodation shortage.

If you bring in people from the third world you end up with a third world country!

Not sure I agree with you. If and only if you bring in the very best Indians, Chinese, Filipinos, Vietnamese, etc and they are wanting to be in NZ not just wanting to escape their place of origin then they will do fine and so will NZ. Asking the trio of Chinese Kiwis I know - they want to be Kiwis, they do not want 3rd world living standards, they do not want large numbers of low qualified immigrants from their country of origin. Or to quote my Indian Kiwi friend Bushan 'they brought in the wrong Indians' - you and I can't say that but he can.
My Doctor is from Iran - but he is just a very good Kiwi doctor. On the other hand why is the yoga class I attend blighted by young and middle aged Chinese who cannot understand very simple words in English - what are they doing in NZ clearly they are not tourists; who let them in and why?
Reduce numbers, improve quality, be fussy about cultural attitudes.

Replace the lot of them with Swiss and see how that gets the economy cracking???
If they want a first world country bring in first world people!

nig - perhaps you haven't read my latest article.

Essentially it talks about framing your question correctly. This requires a divesting of one's assumptions, to a degree that can surprise.

In your case, may I suggest you're confusing the resource-availability chances of most Third World countries, which more often than not, reflects our theft of same via the IMF, World Bank, CIA destabilisation etc. Those people are person-for-person quite as capable as First-World folk, and probably have more long-term-sustainability skills.

And then you have to quantify 'cracking', If your assumption is that growth is the goal, can I suggest you add another word to cracking.

'Up'.

All these people from the third world are wrecking NZ. Why didn't they stay in the own third world countries and make a go of it there instead of coming to first world NZ and turning it into a third world country.
Third world engineers design third world infrastructure and third world construction workers build third world infrastructure. There is a third world job of fibre being rolled out across NZ by groups of guys from the third world. They rock in and do a dodgy job of installing fibre under contract and the home owners in NZ moan about the eyesores left from these guys from the third world but then people just get use to it. Third world quality infrastructure implementation just becomes the normal in NZ.

I find listening skills almost as important as blurting skills.

Just sayin'

;)

I recently inspected a 3 year old house up for sale that has apparently been "barely lived in". The concrete was already cracking and crumbling away. You reap what you sow!

Really, how many of these third world are in the prison systems and or on dole.
Who is building the major projects around Auckland.
Heaven forbid you do not end up in a old peoples home as you will not be looked after by a highly paid care giver.
As for Fibre install don't blame immigrants , blame the company (owned by white OZ) that pays them peanuts as no kiwis will work for that money.

1. higher than average for PIs and lower than average for East Asians.
2. comparatively few immigrants are approved to work in the building trades; most are chefs or retail mangers (at least that is the job title).
3. leaving care-giving to cheap foreigners shows our disrespect for the elderly. Just increase wages pls.
4. Agreed. Also blame the govt for permitting the dreadful low standards.

Welcome to the free market..

Those fibre installers get paid a fixed (low) price per install, so if its straight forward they can do a tidy job of it, but as soon as they hit a hurdle, they start losing money, so they throw the ducting down the fenceline, break out a few zip ties and bugger off to get to the next job to try to make a decent days income. And if their last job was a real bugger to get done and they are behind schedule then expect yours to be rushed too.

I'm here. Lol

Nig, be careful who you label as "3rd World" before you do your research. Not all Asian countries are 3rd world. To some Asians, NZ IS the "3rd World country". Look at the rate of unemployment, the 3rd world pay-scale, level of education (atrocious, even when education is offered free!), % of homelessness and % of people living below poverty line in NZ. There is a high % of rich, well educated, successful Asians who come into NZ for its natural beauty etc., they came into NZ primarily to retire. They may be here on job visas, and be the Asian sitting next to you in your office, but the job is really an option, a disguise, they don't need the income, and they are here to meet the PR requirement so that they can eventually retire here. So be careful who you label "3rd World". A lot of Kiwis and "Whites" are clueless. LOL.

The three countries mentioned are Communist China, India and The Philippines. All are developing countries.

We're not being swamped by Japanese, Koreans, Taiwanese and Singaporeans.

These guys from the third world just don't care? NZ now has the highest rates of homeless in the OECD and these new immigrants from the third world will say -
it has nothing to do with us?
we're good for your country?
you can't do things without us?
you need us?
we're as good as you man for man?
we're skilled and can do things you can't?
we're making your country a better place?
NZ is not better off for having them (third world people have third world training) and if they all went home, NZ wouldn't have the highest rate of homeless in the OECD. NZers wouldn't have to deal with NZers being homeless!
If we don't have houses for our own people then we shouldn't be bringing more people in, we should be sending people home!

Did you mean *we're? ;-)

Well, it seems my third world Honours degree is doing just fine in NZ :-)

I do care about homelessness and donate food every week. Don't put words in our third world mouths :-)
I also wouldn't be so arrogant as to say the Kiwi's can't do what we do.
Send everyone away who isn't of Maori origin and there will be hardly anyone left.

You are right about your third world Honours degree. There are 3rd world universities that are 1st rate by any standard. For example there is at least one in India where PhD's transfer direct to Harvard or Oxford if they wish. Meanwhile in NZ we have 4th rate PTEs that exist only to sell potential NZ residency. My complaint is the volume and the very mixed standard - my family are immigrants with a mix of 1st world and 3rd world degrees. We liked the NZ we arrived in but not how it has changed recently.

"If we don't have houses for our own people then we shouldn't be bringing more people in, we should be sending people home!" :- if only the world and world economy is as simply as that! LOL

Yes, population is the elephant in the room. Yes, migration is part of that. But so too are our birth rates - we recently had a father of six - SIX - as PM, we currently have a mother of six -SIX - in Parliament. How long did they think that nonsense can continue?

Until we have that discussion, it's a waste of time blaming one segment. We're all the progeny of migrants, we need to address the total. Dispassionately.

And I'm told the wee batteries come in cards.....

Maori are disproportionately represented in homelessness. All Maori I see on the Marae want these immigrants to go home.

and these are the good old days

Where will we all go?

When my ancestors over-ruled the Maori, they left behind a nation of 18 million. If I were sent back, it woud be to nearly 70 million.

That's the problem at the base of all problems. Stand back. Perspective is a many splendoured think.....

Also the UK is an Islamic hell hole now. No thanks.

A trifle strong. Most of the UK is OK. Most of the Bengalis I used to live amongst are decidely peaceful - not integrating - not benefiting themselves nor the UK - but certainly not a hellhole. But ask the Bengalis to discuss the Somalis and you will find plenty of agreement.
Why my ex-fellow POMs put up with the UK govt's immigration policy is beyond me. The only people who think every immigrant is a good immigrant are university ivory tower folk who can move to another university in another country at the drop of a hat.

Maybe a bit strong but it's on the way. They keep their heads low until they hold a majority and then bam! Sharia law.

White men have already been sacked at the BBC. London has a Muslim mayor and record numbers of acid attacks. Pakistani child rape gangs in cities like Rotherham covered up by government and whitewashed by soft media language such as "Asian Men" and "Grooming". The school demographics in many cities are now majority Muslim which means in few decades the adult demographics will be too.

The transition is well under way.

I think you are reading a bit too much into that.

We're all the progeny of migrants....

Cringe

Agree PDK. To use your paddock metaphor NZ is currently a rabbit farm. We need a change in policy.

1) Keep the third world rabbits in their own countries
2) Stop feeding our own rabbits through working for families credits and other benefits
3) Let the grass catch up a bit and allow our own sheep to graze.

All the farmers of this paddock are useless at shutting the gates but they get to keep their jobs for 3 years under the union rules and they're really good at bribing the board to keep their jobs.

You cant have a change in policy.
Because this policy now underwrites capitalism. ie ponzi growth

New rabbits are good for more DEBT ...
Which leads to (idiotic) conclusions spouting from economists that migrants add more collective wealth...

Which means we must import billions to become truly rich.

If only they knew you must feed out when you have too many stock units in a paddock.

Not much reporting on the huge anti immigration marches in Germany.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5TXrjLBcGs

East Germany. The east knows what it's like to live in a hell hole but the privileged westerners do not and bury their heads in the sand.

Crickey! Gonna end badly.

There is a seminar based on a study about to be made public. In short the results are - Auckland does not have sufficient electricity infrastructure at present to support the increased population, nor does it have the water-supply infrastructure. They have brought in hundreds of thousands of people over a very short period of time and the NZ is faced with both a looming water and electricity crisis.