Overall sales rate of 22% at Barfoot & Thompson's latest auctions

Barfoot & Thompson sold less than a quarter of the properties at its auctions last week.

The agency, which is the largest in the Auckland region, marketed 172 residential properties for sale by auction last week and achieved sales on 37 of them, giving an overall clearance rate of 22%.

Results at the various auctions around the region were quite mixed, but sales levels were generally lower overall.

Of the major auctions where at least 10 properties were advertised to go under the hammer, the sales rates ranged from 8% at the Pukekohe auction to 25% at the Shortland Street auction on 14 November, where most of the properties offered were from central Auckland suburbs such as Remuera, Parnell, Meadowbank, Mt Eden, Epsom, Grey Lynn and St Heliers.

At the big Manukau auction the sales rate was 18%, and at the North Shore auction it was 20%.

Details of the individual properties and the selling prices and rating valuations for most of those that sold are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

Barfoot & Thompson Residential Auction Results 12-18 November 2018
Date Venue Sold Not sold Total % Sold 
12-18 November On-site 3 10 13 23%
13 November Manukau 5 23 28 18%
13 November B&T Shortland St 4 5 9 44%
14 November Mortgagee/Court 1 2 3 33%
14 November Whangarei 3 0 3 100%
14 November B&T Shortland St 8 24 32 25%
14 November Pukekohe 1 11 12 8%
15 November B&T Shortland St 1 10 11 9%
15 November North Shore 8 32 40 20%
16 November B&T Shortland St 3 18 21 14%
Total All venues 37 135 172 22%

 

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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140 Comments

Why headline as this is the norm now.

Now we should have an headline when Auction result is 40% or higher or even 30% (As 30% will be very good result in current market).

Not surprised with the fall in housing market as was expected BUT really surprised with the speed that is happening. If it continues the way it is now - Early 2019 will be very bad.

Still Speculators and so caled Investors who are not able to hold for long should book lose as get out as soon as to avoid more lose in future but Yes if can hold for couple of years should hold and wait for the next boom.

Some people here said the housing market would quickly collapse following the implementation of the so-called Foreign Buyer Ban......

But that hasn’t happened.

TTP

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Um ..... 22% is pretty bad!!!!

It could be a 5% clearance rate and you would be crowing at how stable the market is...

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22% is bloody terrible for any time of year but especially for November.

It could be a 5% clearance rate, but no doubt there would be an increase in the average selling price so the market would be showing "resilience".

How do you know? Decent data since the ban hasn't been released yet. Not that I expect a dramatic collapse, but you have to wait for some data before you can call it.

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tothepoint. A few weeks ago, you were informing us that auction clearance results were steady at around 50%. They have been under half that in the few weeks since the FBB. See any pattern emerging?

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Subtract the 3 Whangarei sales, and the Auckland* sales are 20.1%. One less Auckland sale and it would be a clearance rate in the teens instead of the twenties.

But according to TakingThePiss its all good. bwhahaha

EDIT: Technical foul. Tuakau is officially Waikato, not Auckland, So subtracting the 3 Whangarei Salesw and the One Waikato sale gives us 33 sales from 168 offered.

19.6% AUCKLAND CLEARANCE RATE

2nd edit.. and with the correction by QTM/Greg below, I now believe we are now 32 from 168. or 19.04%. (Match official confirms it wasn't a barfoots sales.. ignore. back to 19.6%

Well done Pragmatist

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Good grief, the clearance rate is declining by the hour! ;-)

You think today is bad.. wait till the results from Tomorrows B&T auctions come out. The hard thing is going to be deciding whether we beat the spruikers over the head with the clearance rates, or the Sales price to CV comparision. ;)

The property corrected was not a barfoot sale.

Okay, will edit my edit of my edit...

Let's be a bit lenient. .. don't want to set the bar too low, will be hard to match it again. . TTP will then claim it's all uphill

Who won the sweepstake?

I went with 18%

That's for tomorrow's b&t auctions at shortland street. So you'll find out in about a week unless I get out of work early or someone can grab the results on their way past.

Market has fallen over 10%. Give some time and see where it stops

Oracle of Palmy Nth TTP says its all going well in Auckland housing market
YeahRight

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For Barfoots, sales in the 20s percentile has started post FBB. Next comes the flow on effects of the cooling Australian market. There's now more than ample evidence the tide has turned and several years of declines to come. Sadly, by Agent TTP's very own admission, 20% will remain unaware until it's all in the rear vision mirror.

Dear Retired Poppy
So very true it will be too late for many who have sat on the sidelines hanging on to any snippets of positive
Auckland RE news
I am frankly amazed the spruikers didn’t take their profits & wait on the sidelines with cash for the downturn
Sure Auckland property is a stubborn old cus but when the trend changes there’s not much upside left
You can’t help people with a fixed view We all can fall victim to that folly

Losing is only for losers stuart786786. Most property investors are winners, does not matter the circumstances.

"look at me - look at me, I'm winning, hey, look at me" - THUD.......

Edit: losers .... and DGM. Mostly one and the same.

Not DGM it’s DGZ types that failed to sell & take profits at peak
I love the losers who claim they sit & hold Auckland property
Requires watching your profits evaporate & lost opportunity on your money until you see the next upturn

Hopefully you didn't drown yourself after claiming that. . It will be rated as the stupidest thing said this week

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"Losing is only for losers" - sound logic there mate! It's easy to win and consider yourself an expert investor when the market is going up for years. I bet the majority of those 'winners' who haven't quit yet and kept buying in Auckland in the last two years will soon have to look for a real job.

"Easy to win", you're probably referring to capital gains, but successful investing is not that easy. In my opinion there are still good, buy and hold investing opportunities to be found.

Depends when you had purchased the property. If purchased at the end of the boom from 2015 Onwards and if have no holding capicity than all the best.

The Auckland weather (forecast) may deter some of that 'pent up' demand over the next two weeks. Then the shutters close down.

Absolutely Nic Johnson!
Tomorrows B & T 10am auction will be very interesting. There are several family homes in good area's on the list. Still think the sales numbers will be low though.

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Ummm, why are comments getting censored?

Don't mention that name Nic!

Sorry MTP.

Shall we just consider that possibly it is because of the removal of the marginal buyer and suggest that people go to youtube for a view from Digital Finance Analytics about what might be occurring in the New Zealand property market.

Am I allowed to mention that according to BLSH Ashley Church has tendered his resignation at NZPI?

Are youtube links not allowed any longer? Or is it just the ones with relevant information that are not allowed? Song clips still ok? Some clarification from the Ed would be good.

The video Nic is referring to is called "Ireland V New Zealand - A Passion For Rugby & Property".

And yes, it is a very good watch.

Pull your head back into the Overton window Nic. Houses always go up and the titanic is unsinkable. The banks are very charitable to us good plebs and are offering bargain deals this month. The housing market is "Buoyant" according to recent headlines and my impartial mate Tony reckons houses will be just fine.

*PINZ. NZPI in the New Zealand Planning Institute.

Nic, please make a prediction for November's REINZ data.

Mrs The Point - Great question about " why are comments getting censored?". I dont know, but I must say that using my detective skills I am rapidly closing in on some clues. Comments seem to vanish when people mention marginal buyers being removed from the market. What is so explicit about this, I wonder what the removal of marginal buyers has done to other countries ? im off to check out youtube to see how serious this is.

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Like most media we have always moderated our comment stream. Posts can be deleted for various reasons, but one we are increasingly aware of and concerned about is third parties using the comment stream as part of a marketing campaign to promote particular products or services (which can include other websites) via links such as those which can be posted on Youtube. We will continue to remove such posts where we believe this could be happening. We want free and frank discussion in our comment stream. We do not wnat it to be used as a marketing platform by other organisations.

Sorry chaps, looks like my comment regarding that other website was judged as spot on by the Ed. It is a stretch to call it marketing though, and is totally relevant to what is happening in the market currently. Just comes across as heavy handed censorship.

Agree with you Greg, but how can we make sure our comments include links to other websites but not be promotional. Do you want us to provide a quick summary of why we think the link is relevant for other viewers?

Just thinking of AndrewJ's comments on 90sec at 9am when the comments are just website links with sometimes little info to go off. (Side note: don't ban AndrewJ's comments, they are great articles to read)

Greg - With all respect, what are these products people are trying to sell ?

Free education!!! Now we can't have that because we need kids to get on the debt merry-go-round by wasting 80K on university fees!

For the benefit of some of our newer commenters in particular, we do have a commenting policy. It can be found here - https://www.interest.co.nz/news/65027/here-are-results-our-commenting-policy-review
Cheers.

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Looks like the "buoyant summer market" may have sprung a leak.

@Mrs The point.... sprung a leak and sinking rapidly. Didn't anyone see the large (fluffy) iceberg? (subtle link to the website of "he who must not be named"

Lord Voldemort has a website...

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Nic, Good on you for continuing the crusade. I may have uncovered another sinister plan that RE agencies are over reporting successful auction clearance rates. e.g. 1/1 tyne road is listed as sold in auction in Interest.co.nz auction results page but it didn't actually sell and its still on the market ! Call it data error or ..... . by the way I was there at the auction, thats how i know.

Let me know which suburb/town was that in QTM and I'll check it out.

Forrest Hill, Auckland

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We were definitely advised by the agency that it is had sold, but I see it is still listed as for sale on their website. We are seeking an explanation. 

Ouch the sales rate just keeps dropping. . At this rate even lead seems light

Some sales are negotiated in the rooms post auction and on the auction sale and purchase agreement paperwork. I believe they still include these in the successful auction results.

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Still doesn't have a 'Sold" sign on it. I cross the house every day on way to work.

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HI QTM. I have checked with the agent who confirmed it did not sell at auction and is still for sale, so we have amended our results. It appears to have been a processing error by the agency. That can happen from time to time but fortunately we don't get many such mistakes. Thanks for letting us know and please feel free to get in touch if see any other results you are not sure about. We want them to be as accurate as possible. Regards. Greg.

Thanks Greg !

Overall sales rate of 22% at Barfoot & Thompson's latest auctions

Is anyone surprised.

tothepoint will be very surprised.

To some people the only metric that matters is the average sales price. Those people will only realise what's happening when it's already too late. In standoffs like this, where sellers aren't ready to accept that the pool of buyers has dried up, the prices stay the same for months before more and more are forced to sell.
Look at what happened to bitcoin: Exactly one year ago, a lot of people used their credit cards and business loans to buy into the big spike, and now they had to pay it back - hence forced to sell, dropping the price by 20% overnight.

Pragmatist, I called it at 25%. I guess I wasn't too far off - lol!

RP, you called it for tomorrow's auctions

Ooops, I stand corrected - thanks :)

Ho HO HO. . Santa has arrived with some very good news. ..

Posts seem to keep vanishing, whats going on ?

Removal of the marginal buyer seems to be having a big effect. Or is it removal of the comments about marginal buyers ? Does other people see comments vanishing into thin air ? Please let me know immediately because i think im loosing it.

Lots of posts being deleted Tony.

Lets ask Tom Cruise and jack Nicholson what's going on?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FnO3igOkOk

So this one is OK? hahahaha

Nic Johnson - with all these comments going missing I think im going slightly mad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Od6hY_50Dh0

It finally happened.

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[Deleted by the PRC - 5 social credit points removed]

12 month sales to stock for Auckland now running below 4 percent. Unless there is a fire starter somewhere , (and there does not appear to be) national volumes will start to decline in the coming months, and when you clog everything with fat something eventually happens.

if anyway wants to look at the video that was linked, go to you tube and search

more on the NZ property market

thegic - please tell me im not the only one here seeing links vanish ?

nope they seem to be being removed, interest.co.nz whats up???

Relax, it is just incorrect information being corrected by the Ministry of Truth.

MTP - But we are the Truth and Reality Merchants, or is it the Truth and Reality Movement ? (TRM.) I do hope we dont have any competition on this subject.

And so the Mexican stand-off continues.
The gap between buyers and sellers needs to close.
This will take a while.
I can't see any popcorn time bubble burst happening.

Awkland is not just the leafy center. Based on comments is looks like the outer rings are starting to decline. As they should. People were paying way to much for Massey , Otahuhu and parts of the Shore.

Still reckon single dwelling zoning ,with no subdivision upside in the leafy middle are poised to take significant readjustment. Property asking $6m and probably really only $3-4m is still a very niche market to most kiwis, and limited to big wallet types.

I second those thoughts, Averageman. Ex Exexpat might have to put a hold on his Avocado orders.

Well it's happening. It had too. But I still feel sick about it. V bleak times ahead.

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The big problem coming with these low success rates, is a sudden cutting of prices by those who have earned huge capital increases over the past years and simply don't care. In these cases people will just cut and run in order to move on. But that sale, and others like it will bounce off all the other properties in the streets all around like a ripple in the pond. The stand back. It will not be pretty.

Yes. And the 'cut and run' time is/was - about now.
How many of us have heard over the recent weeks "I want to get it on the market by Christmas!". And so they have. This article is the result - and it's poor.
The market has one week left of this part of the season( isn't the last week in Nov, 'it' ?)
Late Jan it has another go, and given what else is going on in The World, it's not boding well for prices. Clearances? Probably will be 'good', as noted above, but prices? We'll see, I guess...

I think you're wrong.. the cut and run time was up til about a month ago. It definitely ended with the FBB kicking in.

If you put it on with a 5% discount, you can probably still sell quickly. That's what we did with our UK house recently. Market had turned, we weren't in denial about it. Put it on at an attractive price, sold in less than a month (which is very fast for the UK). We figured, the longer we left it, the bigger the discount and liquidity was more valuable.

BigDaddy - I think thats called the marginal buyer, or is it the marginal seller ? I just used the word marginal. Im going to watch the screen very very very very carefully to see if this comment disappears. Im feeling extremely nervous because if it does then i know im crazy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fu87gUmAeC0

Agree BD. Valuations and thus what banks will advance to maintain capital ratios are all about tends. As exiting momentum builds, herd mentality takes over and it becomes rush to the exits with participants trampling each other to sell and bank their gain. If your standing to make 190% on original purchase, whats 180% or 170% between friends. Or you could just sit back and watch your vapor capital evaporate (its only an actual capital gain if its realised in the bank).

Smart money exited in in late 2016 and is hunkering down swoop back in after the fallout stops. Its all about cycles...

Abysmal clearance rate!
The standoff between vendors and buyer continues, low volumes and sell prices holding up. The first 5 pages of the linked "Residential auction results page" show:
19 sales above CV,
9 sales below CV,
1 sale exactly at CV

Now go through and check every one of the not solds, and see what percentage of them now have asking prices below CV. Many are still not priced, but increasingly they are getting put up with a price at or below CV. And if your asking price is CV, then your selling price is going to be below it.

Hahaha evil must be feeling the burn

Pragmatist, I don't know how to find the asking prices for the houses that did not sell but it's a good idea. I look forward to you providing this data.
Thanks

Put the address in google/trademe. Or the reference number on the auction result into the appropriate RE agency website. Off you go son, I won't be doing it for you.

It was your idea, not mine

Oh, i'm watching a few, but if you want to fool yourself that prices are good, you go right on believing that.

Yvil, this distortion (standoff) is precisely why 80% of commentators here already know what the REINZ figures represent. Right now, it matters more what the REINZ figures don't represent. This however is conveniently ignored by the remaining 20% ;-)

The houses that don't sell, what are they now truly worth? Is this a stable/flat Auckland house market? Nope.

@Yvil,
That's 29 sold properties out of how many? If that was 29 out of 40 then it's outstanding result.
If that was 29 out 200 then it's pxssed poor result!
The devil is in the details..

Like I said in my post, quote: "Abysmal clearance rate!"

B-b-b-b-b-but it's okay, because 19 properties sold above CV!!!!!!

Opening address on the causes of misconduct & possible responses at the Royal Commission (7.1)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1AC3DY757No
Credit over the ditch is about to get a lot tighter....... here too perhaps?

Nic, I'd be highly surprised if NZ's lending standards continue unchanged. As of late, the moneys certainly cheaper, it's just harder gaining access to it.

We may see mortgage rates at 3.5% by Christmas.... not a lot of margin between that and TD rates. How do the banks do it? Please don't delete this post too, it's from the Bank of England!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvRAqR2pAgw

We won't see mortgage rates at 3.5% by Christmas, not Christmas 2018 anyway

@ Nic Johnson - tried twice to watch it but the sound quality is awful. Sounds like Rowena has been possessed by the darleks.

Those marginal sellers, Chinese Foreign Investors, are going to have plenty of equity to sell off cheap and still make a profit. Man I would not want to have to have a race to the bottom against those people even if my legs are indeed longer.

Especially the ones with laundered money, a 50% loss is still a 100% gain.

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No links this time.. Just commentary from the Australasian Debt Steeplechase!

"And it's 'MELBOURNE' out in front, with 'A CASE OF TOO MUCH DEBT' following short behind.
'WERE ON THE ROCKS' is on the inside track, dragging along 'WE'VE OVERHEATED,'
'OOP's YOU DIDN'T WANNA' is leading the chasing pack with 'CAN-BEAR-A' falling over.
'AVOID THE CREDIT BUBBLE' stumbles and loses his rider 'Aunty Westpac'.
'50 PERCENT INTEREST ONLY LOAN BOOK' is making a move with 'NOW'S THE TIME TO BUY' and 'DON'T BE STUPID.'
'PERTH IS STILL BEHIND' falling away and never likely to catch up, but here comes 'SYDNEY's SPIRAL' 'ONCE A LOVELY PLACE TO LIVE' 'NOW WE'RE ROOTED' and 'STRUTH MATE'

"And who are these two riding up on the outside, I can't see, yes it is, the old mare from Auckland 'NEW ZEALAND IS DIFFRUNT' with '22% CLEARANCE'
'WHERE IS JOHNNY FOREIGNER' has fallen away now, with 'BARFOOT 'N' MOUTH' sliding back too.
It's MELBOURN OUT IN FRONT' with 'STRUTH MATE', followed by , 'HERE COMES SYDNEY's SPIRAL' 'NOW'S THE TIME TO BUY' and 'DON'T BE STUPID'"
He's fallen, yes 'CAPITAL GAINS' is out of the race, I hope his jockey is okay?... No, ouch he just got hit by 'REDUCED BANK LENDING'" and "WHERE IS JOHNNY FOREIGNER' 'I'm not sure if he's getting up from that?

"There's a whole bunch now in the middle but looking like the they don't have the legs for this, who can I see, yes 'WHAT DID TONY TELL US,' 'ALWAYS GO UP.' 'TREND IS YOUR FRIEND' who else is in there?, Looks like it's 'ASHLEYS DONE A RUNNER', yes it is! and 'SHOULD HAVE HAD DTI'S' and 'CREDIT BUBBLE' all herding together.

"What a race ladies and gents, a race to the bottom, good luck to all you wonderful punters as this plays out."

Minor edit "Debt Steeplecrash"

The computation of Sales Above CV/Below CV/Exactly CV is only limited to those SOLD at AUCTION. Majority are not marketed via auction.

Trotting out the just auction figures results in a somewhat skewed picture.

Even then, how many sold at auction?Abysmally low rate of 22 %. Remaining 80% of unsold auction listings join the swelling pool languishing in the market which includes those which were not marketed via auctions.

Trade-Me listings for Auckland today 13,501 .Compared with at the beginning of year @ Monday 29 Jan 2018 - 7,600 listings.

Jaf - those trade me numbers are very telling, have you been taking notes all year?
On Friday night the views on youtube for Bricks and Slaughter was 293,408. On Monday it was 300,011.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smPR0s2W-Ck

Jaf, I just used the data readily available on the link provided on this article, you're welcome to plough through other types sales and report here, would be interesting. And yes, as I stated: "Abysmal clearance rate!"

The news of this weeks Barfoot results doesn’t appear to have been reported by The Herald yet. Headline banner is regarding a marriage proposal by billboard.
Can’t wait to hear Peter Thompsons comments.

I wonder if Ashley Church from the property Institute is moving into the soon to be vacant role of CEO of Harcourts?

Lets see what the REINZ data says next month.

this data is nothing short of disastrous. a few REA must be pondering the profession.

Should we be getting nervous?

And all this is before China's Tier 1 cities property prices implode, which surely can't be far away now. This is just Australia & NZ slowing it down, ourselves. Blimey.

Spring is coming.........PLEASE

It isn’t actually much of a surprise that the no. of sales by Auction has declined, due to a no. Of reasons!
Personally wouldn’t be buying anything in Auckland for rental purposes either as returns would be shite.
Property investing is all about rental yields and buying right somthere is upside, that is where the money is made.
Buy right, get a good yield and leverage and you can make a lot of money, and not need to have a 9 to 5 job from property investment!
The Auckland market is not set up nkwadays to be able to do this however.
Christchurch is the market I know and is where the action is without doubt!

Listen to this real estate training guru talking about the market slump - slide to 55 second mark and start there https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=o4wNpxrG_dY
This is related to Australian market but would equally apply to Auckland right now

Wow those numbers are so bad. I’m part of the DGM but even I’m more bulllish than these numbers.

tony turner Yvil

You are spot on.I have been trawling the figures for Auckland listings on Trade Me virtually on a almost daily basis since start of the year.

Is there any particular specific date for which you would like the Trade-Me Auckland listings? I would be happy to dredge it up for you.

24 May @ 11:32 am.

Jaf - very impressed . Was October the biggest jump in listings this year ?

Where's dgz? I strangely somehow miss his deluded bull rantings.

I do miss him so, as one misses athletes foot.

Maybe he's caught wind of the new school in Auckland that will shrink the grammar zone and his property won't be in it

Sold his vast portfolio of investment properties to some FBB before the cut off. He's now sitting in the beach somewhere in Africa drinking cocktails and thinking about the next wave of investment opportunities

I think this time next year will be good to buy in Auckland. I expect a floor will be reached with prices 5-10% lower than now

Already 10% to 15% lower in Auckland and another 10% will be 25% to 30%.

Not bad.

alittle - When the asking price is 50% below the last RV then I will be feeling there is not that far to the bottom. Maybe only 10% to 20% from there.

I think your maths are "alittle" off

How are developers going to carry on building new affordable houses if wages and material costs keep rising while prices keep sliding?

@ Big Daddy ..... they won't...... they'll either give up or go bust.

Answer - land prices will go down.

Costs will have to come down if prices start falling, if not builders will quit, construction companies will go under and the lack of new builds will start to push prices up again.The housing market is full of control loops, there is a reason it is where it is, its not by accident.

You've forgotten that the housing NZ and kiwibuild stuff will keep trucking along, so the supply of housing will keep increasing, even as immigration stalls, and if the economy has downturn I can see the recent arrivals packing their suitcases and trying again somewhere else. If prices don't fall here, and keep falling in Oz, kiss goodbye to a lot of NZers.

Kiwibuild is a dead duck. Our market is too small to find the labour required to ramp up the building and in any case from what we have already seen the properties built are not significantly cheaper anyway because again your back to a set of fixed costs. Kiwis have always poured in Australia for work when its good and either come home when its not or when they get older. The more things change the more they stay the same.

I agree that Kiwibuild is a disaster. But its already close to 4000 contracted houses/units, and mostly in Auckland, then add on however many Housing NZ houses are already contracted (3000 HNZ + 3000 KB in Mt roskill, may not be contracted yet?, and the Unitec site?). Those buildings will get built, and then sold, or rented to HNZ clients.

There won't be a housing supply issue, just a demand/price issue.

tony turner

To answer your query whether October was the biggest jump in Trade Me Auckland listings.
Steady climb in the figures. Interpret in your own way.

1/8- 10,935

1/9-10,927

1/10- 11,786

1/11-12,942

Jaf - Thanks for that. Very interested to see what 1/12 is going to look like. I see Realestate.co.nz is already up to 14,364. @ 9.30am today.

Always a rise in listings at this time of the year. I think the post Christmas figures will be interesting. Still expecting the fireworks in Q1 2019.

I would expect listing to start slowing down becuase of christmas. If they don't thats pretty damning evidence that people really want out IMO. To deal with RE agents and keep the house presentable for inspections etc while the kids are home from school etc, combined with many people heading away on holiday over xmas.