Sales rates ranged from 10% to 56% at Barfoot & Thompson's auctions last week

Sales rates ranged from 10% to 56% at Barfoot & Thompson's auctions last week

The overall sales rate at Barfoot & Thompson's auctions eased back to 28% last week compared to 34% the week before.

The number of properties marketed for sale by auction was almost unchanged at 187 last week compared to 190 the week before, but the number of properties sold dropped to 53 compared to 65 the previous week.

Most of the unsold properties were passed in, which opened them up to conditional offers and sale by negotiation, while a few had their auction dates postponed or were withdrawn from sale.

The sales rates varied widely between the various auctions, with on-site auctions recording the highest sales rate of 56% and the Pukekohe auction the lowest sales rate of 10% (see table below).

However, the most surprising result came from the auction at the agency's head office auction rooms in Shortland St on March 6, which was a big auction with 47 properties on the Order of Sale.

Most were from Auckland's upmarket central suburbs such as Glendowie, Orakei, Mt Eden, St Heliers, Remuera, Ponsonby and Herne Bay but Barfoot's published results show that sales were achieved on just five of them, giving an overall sales clearance rate of just 11%.

That compares with a sales rate of 39% at Barfoot's big Manukau auction and 33% on the North Shore auction last week.

The results for individual properties auctioned last week are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

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Barfoot & Thompson Auction Results 4-10 March 2019
Date Venue Sold Not sold Total % Sold
4-10 March On-site 5 4 9 56%
5 March Manukau 16 25 41 39%
5 March Shortland St, CBD. 4 7 11 36%
6 March Shortland St, CBD. 5 42 47 11%
6 March  Whangarei 2 2 4 50%
6 March Pukekohe 1 9 10 10%
7 March North Shore 10 20 30 33%
7 March Shortland St, CBD. 5 10 15 33%
8 March Shortland St, CBD. 5 15 20 25%
Total All venues 53 134 187 28%

 

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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14
up

Meanwhile, Sydney with 54%.....

Predictable for the top end of the market really. There will be slower turnover and many will just hold in the hope the market turns around. If your desperate to get out then your going to take a hit.

25
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I remember 3 years ago all the comments that there will be never a decline in Auckland due to the housing shortage, migration best place to live etc..etc
I guess it is not the case anymore...

Unsurprising given the stagnant to falling residential property prices in Auckland for the last 2 years, and that this has been reported in the mainstream media. Given this backdrop, many people have adjusted their expectations of future market price changes from increases to falls. Those that seem the slowest to change are vendors it seems.

This change in market price expectations driven by recent market price changes has occurred many times before. Some recent examples:

A) in the same asset class - residential real estate
1) Ireland
2) Spain
3) United States
4) Australia
5) Vancouver, Canada
6) Hong Kong - circa 1997 / 1998
7) Singapore - circa 1997/1998
8) Norway - circa 1990
9) Finland - circa 1990
10) Sweden - circa 1990

B) in different asset classes
1) Bitcoin
2) Internet stocks circa 1999-2001
3) Global stockmarkets - circa 1987
4) Commercial real estate in Auckland circa 1987-1991
5) Commercial real estate in Sydney circa 1987-1991
6) Asian stock markets - circa 1997 / 1998
7) Russian stock market - circa 1998

Those that fail to learn the lessons from history are doomed to repeat it.

Some people just don't know what they don't know ...

13
up

Not sure what you mean by 'reported in the media': it seems to me that the stagnation was totally unreported in the media: "one roof" is completely biased and still tries to sell the housing hype?

Agree with you on One Roof.

There has been an increase in frequency in news stories talking about property prices stagnating or falling on TV news, Stuff.co.nz.

Three years ago, there were no news stories on property prices falling, only property prices continuing to rise (which fed the expectation of ever rising property prices in Auckland).

Anecdotal story - was speaking to my mother in law recently who is a care worker and has no knowledge of the housing market. She mentioned to me that she heard on the news that property prices in Auckland are going down.

Thanks, that is good to hear, I have found the "One Roof" reporting to be quite unethical.

11
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I agree. They occasionally chuck in something a little bearish to give it a modicum of balance. But overwhelmingly they are there to pump the property market for their paymasters. It means, of course, that the philosophy of balanced journalism at the Herald is undermined.

Totally agree. The NZH is one of the biggest spruikers for the property market out there

The sense I get is most people understand the market is flat / slightly falling at best. But I think most are still fundamentally in denial, and think things will pick up strongly again very soon, because they always do. I've spoken to a couple of people who reckon Auckland prices will be 30% up in 4-5 years. I totally disagree, of course.

I am totally confused....

... it's nice to have someone from Taxcinda's government here at interest.co.nz ...

Welcome to you !

Heh...that was a pretty decent one liner, actually. I fully smirked.

18
up

Top end of the market taking a hit all over the world in Sydney, Vancouver, California you name it. Well the top end led the rally during the boom and cashed up sellers were then able to redistribute that wealth by buying cheaper properties at extravagant prices. They became marginal buyers to lift the lower rung. Not any more though. As more and more people who have owned properties for 10-20 years meet the market at so called reasonable prices. Watch this space.....

26
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Right on cue. Leafy suburbs are taking a hit. Eventually, the entire price spectrum will take a hit. Many jobs depend on this fake paper prosperity being sustained. Interest rates already bobbing at 80 year lows in NZ and multi century lows overseas already implies its no longer unsustainable. I've always thought this is the makings of an epic slump lasting well beyond 2021!

So what if the "entire price spectrum takes a hit", right now it's all fairly undramatic and normal. Turnover is low, but prices are relatively stable and finding their level, hell it may even be an opportunity to seek out the right property at the right price. And if this market lasts beyond 2021 then it should be optimum for fhb to save up and buy and put themselves in a good position for their eventual retirements. I hope you agree, if you take significant issue I know you are a drama queen.

10
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If prices are stable.. why have 95% of the prices estimates on Homes.co.nz dropped from what their December & January estimates were? (at least in the areas i've been watching listings in.) These are automatically calculated from other sales in the area, so that data must be reflecting falling prices.

Whether it is 95 percent as per your sweeping generalization or some other figure is irrelevant to me. Many of those are 1 to 3 percent which is "relatively stable" and are only estimates anyway. The price that matters is the one it transacts at

Ah, so now falling = stable does it?

And some are a few percent, some are approaching 10%..

And some are going up :)

I've seen two in about the 40odd i've checked that have gone up, one was a huge jump from wayundervalued to something reasonable, and one that went up about 50k on a 1.4million property. Not significant by any non-spruiker measure.

where's Double GZ? Kind of miss him. I'd like to see how creative he can be in pumping a clearly falling market in his neck of the woods.

Housework you are correct, market is so bad that any figure at this stage is irrevelent as market is getting worse on a weekly basis :)

And let us not forget, you are referring to Squawkland properties. 2 thirds of properties are not in Squawkland and are performing very very well

True, but are they leveraged against Awkland equity?

Sure is. One such example is Echo Bird. Went all out buying Hamilton and beyond using Auckland equity. Echo Bird domiciled on Auckland's North Shore....

There are fault lines in property investment portfolios that there is no data on and hence not visible.

Any area where highly leveraged property investors have collectively been large buyers in recent years are potentially at risk. When these property investors need to deleverage and need liquidity, they may do so en masse and there may be very few buyers at that time.

Hence seemingly unconnected areas may experience sharp property price falls as highly leveraged property investors sell.

Being "highly leveraged" has been outlawed didnt you hear, by the LVR regime. And Hamilton has long been an auckland investors destination due to the high number of rental properties. There is a definite structural change taking place with more firms relocating out of Squakland and benefitting the regions :)

10
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OMG it's so obvious that Houseworks bought into the provincial markets at some point recently. And can't consider that if Auckland goes down, so will all the provincial markets too eventually, because he is emotionally invested.

Partly. Love all properties but cant be bothered with small provincial towns. Not a Johnny come lately. Hamilton is in great shape for a long long run imo. I guess I live or die by that prediction and one of you on here will remind me if I'm wrong ;)

Anecdotally, some of the places that I heard property investors talking about as places to invest in the last 2 years or so :

1) Kawerau
2) Masterton
3) Opotiki
4) Whakatane

According to QV.co.nz, Kawerau has been the district with the highest percentage increase in values since January 2015. According to QV.co.nz, since January 2015, average house values have increased at 24.5% per annum from $101,503 to $244,386 as at January 2019.

https://www.qv.co.nz/property-trends/residential-house-values

Also when the LVR's were at 65%, heard an increase in interest in commercial real estate (bank LVR's for commercial property is around the 65% level I think).

11
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Houseworks, now its obvious your allegiance has shifted from "buy right now and can't lose" club to suggesting FHB's could do well by waiting. Not even Houseworks and BLSH can window dress what is mounting evidence of a market with a collapsing floor. He and his Spruiker ilk now risk looking like even bigger fools (If that's possible)

You have misquoted me Retired poppy go back and read. Your reply is predictable for a Drama Queen :)

"And if this market lasts beyond 2021 then it should be optimum for fhb to save up and buy and put themselves in a good position for their eventual retirements"

Translation - "due to more unknowns than I'm comfortable with, it's time to hedge my bets so as to come across like I know something"

"it's time to hedge my bets so as to come across like I know something"
If that's true, who is the bigger ass, me for trying or you for believing it haha

The change in market price can impact a sufficient number of property owners.

Property investors who borrowed on business or commercial terms who are near maximum allowable LVR covenants are particularly at risk. These borrowers have regular assessments to ensure that they are compliant with LVR ratios.

In 2008-2010, the banks used their estimates of market values, and a number of property investors were asked to put up more collateral or reduce their debt. As many did not have additional collateral, this resulted in the forced sale of properties.

Those who are invested in the stock market and other financial markets commonly refer to this as "mark to market".

I was interested (and a bit revolted) to see on social media some Auckland real estate folks popping a $600 bottle of champagne in a northern hemisphere ski resort town this week. Not sure that kind of conspicuous exuberance will last for much longer...

Sorry to be a pedant, but just FYI there is no word que. You mean "right on cue" (as in the cue for one's line in a play). The one spelt with a q is queue - the line you stand in.

Que?

Uncle Qu - my old landlord.

I'm sorry, he's from Barcelona.

10
up

From your link, 7 March 2018, CBD = 35%, 6 March 2019, = 11%

Agent TTP, what's your take on the popularity of premium Leafy Auckland properties now?

As this is likely to be the most popular property thread today. I need some advice. Other than don't do it.
I am in the throes of attempting a trade up. Selling in FHB range. Will need a mortgage of about 500k to settle. What sort of interest rate should I be insisting on? Can I expect any cash contribution from the lender? I am with one of the major banks now with 1 year of fixed rate remaining at 4.5% 220k . Am I likely to pay a penalty to fix the whole 500k loan lower? Or will they negotiate that away if I stay with them?

What's your LVR?

Approx 65%

1. Waive break fee and 3.8% for 1 year.
2. Waive break fee and 4% for 2 years $3k cash back (they'll want to bond you for 3 years but push back to 2 years if you can).
3. Waive break fee and 4.2% for 3 years $4k cash back.

I don't float until December so I am just signalling what I would go for if I was in your position. In no way am I advising you what to do.

I can't help with all of that, but I can tell you we recently took out a slightly smaller mortgage with a 30% deposit and fixed for 2 years at 3.99% with Kiwibank, with 0.5% of the mortgage value as a cash contribution (technically we have to stay with Kiwibank for 3 years or this could be claimed back).

I was quite happy with that. TSB offered essentially the same deal, Kiwibank only offered cashback when I mentioned that TSB had offered some.

"Kiwibank only offered cashback when I mentioned that TSB had offered some."
Good negotiating!

About a year ago I approached Kiwibank and they said as they have an in-house mortgage team that arranges the transfer from another bank to Kiwibank they no longer give cash backs. That ruled them out. Good to see they are back on the table.

Is selling and renting for a while an option? That would seem to be the smart play in this market. Sorry, don't have advice on the mortgage market for you.

I second the selling and renting scenario. The market is difficult to time, but the big declines in Australia are a very good indicator of what we're in for imo.

Yeah, if you wait a year you could get the house at the fair market price of $250k rather than the $770k bubble price the seller is trying to screw you with.

Meanwhile CHCH is booming, so i was told!

Er, with quite a few construction workers twiddling their thumbs in ChCh, compared to a couple of years ago.

Your sarcasm detector needs re-calibrating!

You need to add more exclamation marks!!!!

And set Caps-Lock to ON

He bought another rental the other day he tells us. Give the man a break he's probably working hard painting over the mould, putting in a couple $5 warehouse smoke alarms and trying to prove all the insulation spaces are "too inaccessible to insulate".

I doubt he does much himself, better to employ someone to do the donkey work

And few rolls of home brand aluminium foils from Coundown. There goes, I've done the insulation and I am looking after my tenants!

You make!!!!
Money!!!!
When you buy below!!!
Market value!!!!

It is hard to tell on here sometimes, quite a few people are STILL surprisingly bullish.

Christchurch had it's boom earlier in the years after the earthquake 2012-2014, so it makes sense that the market flattened earlier too. Not sure what point you are trying to make. Unless it is that Christchurch was as good a predictor of the market as Sydney in that house prices never just keep going up and up?

How many cheaper rentals are leveraged on top of leafy central burbs? If your 40% minimum equity requires your house to be worth 5m and now is more like 4m or 3.5m your bank should come knocking. News flash - leverage can work in reverse. No wonder the big 4 will lobby against the capital requirements they simply dont want to risk their own money.As the tides goes out, Banks will start to protect themselves.

Timing as always ...is everything. Interestingly I here that the ultimate vulture is back in town... aka Goldmans. Thats a supporting signal that the financial reality is not far away. Grabbing popcorn and continuing to stack vulture fund.

If the banks are required to put up more capital, I wonder what impact that will have on interest rates regardless of the OCR.

More bad news for the spruikers

13
up

Help !!! ....where is DGZ et al to calm the Mike Hosking brigade residing in the "leafy suburbs" .....this can not be happening ...it was not on the song sheet ! .....a drop in the upper echelons of that robust, "bullet proof" market that is Auckland real estate.......I am so missing my annual 10%+ capital gains....this is a travesty to my ilk ! ....please help DGZ and tell me this is only a mere blip and everything will be fine again.

Thought Mike sold for a massive gain and retreated north of Awkland. Perhaps he leveraged his gain big time into lots of houses?

About now would be a good time for Jeremy Wells to do a Like Mike mick take out of Mike H

The property spruikers will soon be the 'doom and gloom' merchants, and they'll be blaming the government for the fall away in prices.

Leafy suburbs, eh? Looks like an early autumn is knocking some of those leaves off the trees.

market situation :
One house listed in halfmoon bay with a CV of 1.3 Million and is for Auction by Barfoot and when check with the agents, his response was that will be in range of 1 Million to 1.1 Million BUT when you check the history of that property find that was bought last year for 1180,000 so by selling at 1 million or 1.1 Million has the vendor accepted a loss (even before the auction) or is the agent upto old trick and if yes will the agent be successful for if inviting buyer for 1 million to 1.1 million range and than expecting to sell at 1.2 Million Plus to avoid lose to vendor who has just bought last year so is not defenitely a FHB and even investor as selling in less than a year.

In today's market if the agents says the expectation is 1 or 1.1 million buyer will try to negotiate unlike previously where is the expectation was a million may go much above.

Agent marketing strategy 100 percent. We were told 300 to 400, it went for 500 hows that?

Hi Staurt786, Check another house in Fisher Parade (Very good area) which has a CV of 1150000 was earlier in market for 1150000 than was dropped to 1.1 Million and now is listed with asking of 999000 which too is hard to get as has been in market for quite a few months now.

When check sell history it was sold in September 2014 for $685000 and than just in few months in July 2015 was sold again for $900000 (In just 10 Months first vendor who bought in Sep 2014 made a cool profit of more than $200000 / profit of appox $2000 per week) and the current vendor who most probably bought at a very high price will be lucky if he gets away without a lose that too after 4 years.

If the vendor is having hard time to sell at 2015 price, can understand the direction of the market.

All investors who bought and sold before 2017 may have made some money or breakeven but anyone who bought on/after 2015 at ridiculous high price is bound is bound to lose money unless those investors/speculators have been doing for number of years and have flipped many time making a profit than in the last, even if have to take a hit is not a problem as must have made money in earlier transaction BUT average Kiwi who saw and ventured into it later on and have no holding capacity will be hard hit and may even see their deposit or buffer from first home being eroded and all this happened in the name of prosperity under National Government.

Check history of new listing and will find that many have been bought on or after 2015 and are now struggling to sell without a hit.

Just saw another at Hutchinson road that was bought last year for 835000 and after renovating is in market for 11180000 (will be lucky to get 900000). Many stories earlier was how property is making a profit of $2000 per week and now how property is loosing $2000 per week. Win some Lose Some but if their is someone who make money either way is the agent as a result many joined in last few years and now many will be leaving for other options.

That is a really quirky house with no garage (fisher parade).

I know of a house at Eastern Beach that just sold for 25% below it's CV. CV's are meaningless now. And before you ask, it was in great condition.

Yeah, agents say that to increase the number of attendees at the auctions. I learned this lesson very quickly - agent said a house would go in the region of $1.1m and at the end of the day the property was passed in for sale with the highest bid being $1.2m!!

Agreed it is houseworks BUT will it work in current market - doubtfull. Am seeing too many that are failing in Auction and when come with an asking price is too high. As just saw one that came with an asking price $969000 in Pakuranga at Gossamere Drive which has a CV of 900000. Will be lucky to get early 800s to Mid 800s in current market situation. for houses on the other side of Pakuranga that is Sunnyhills/farm Cove which are better area independent houses are going for high 800s to mid 900s as of now and going forward all indication are that may fall further. So for me if for 900 am able to find a stand alone house in Sunnyhills/farm Cove area with a CV of more than a million why will I pay more than mid 900s for a house that has a CV of 900 - as even FHB buying today are looking for appreciation in future whenever the market picks up.

FHB should try to getthe maximum out of their $$$ and not rush.

Bilbo, don’t settle for another 7 weeks, and nothing to do on the property.
Insulation uptodate and maintenance all good, so easy to rent straight away, and think we got someone already without needing to advertise.
Plenty of demand for good homes in ChCh and more people coming in for great lifestyle.

Sounded like a good buy - is there somewhere to do burnout nearby?

Chairman, I am sure they could find somewhere close, although don’t seem to have boyracers out in the suburbs like they do in other cities in NZ.
Tend to be more in town/CBD.
The thing is that there is so much to do in ChCh now and kids are pretty well behaved down here!

Things can change a lot in 3 months.. they are now all at home doing homework!
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/109660839/boy-racers-keep-christchurch-...

I notice no sales price to RV comparison this week. Just had a look at the results, lots of places without disclosed sales prices, and some there that are way under RV, and a few that are hugely over. 81 fisher parade, RV $3.75m, sold at $4.65m. seem like there are still a few exceptional places that are busting through the RVs, but anything a bit average or worse is failing to sell unless the vendor is realistic on price.