The Reserve Bank wants to retain its current 1%-3% inflation target in its Monetary Policy Committee remit - but is pushing to remove the current reference in the remit to house prices.
Earlier this year the RBNZ had public consultation on potential changes its guiding remit for the Monetary Policy Committee. The RBNZ has now released details on the outcome of this consultation - in which 1500 people contributed.
The RBNZ has now advised Finance Minister Grant Robertson of topics and areas under discussion for possible changes to the remit, and there will be a further round of public consultation due to end early next year before the matter goes to Robertson for final consideration, probably in April. The changed/renewed remit will then apply till 2028.
Under legislation passed in 2018, there is to be a five-yearly review of the monetary policy Remit. The Remit is provided by the Government and is used to guide the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) decision making in its pursuit of low and stable inflation and supporting maximum sustainable employment.
The first remit was signed by RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr and Finance Minister Grant Robertson in 2019, and then amended slightly at the behest of Robertson to include reference to housing in 2021.
At the moment the current subclause 2(2)(d) of the remit says the RBNZ should assess the effect of its monetary policy decisions on the Government’s policy - which is to support more sustainable house prices, including by dampening investor demand for existing housing stock, which would improve affordability for first-home buyers.
The RBNZ says that of the submitters that engaged with this part of the consultation, there was broad (but not complete) support from submitters for not including house price sustainability in the remit.
"However, there was a wide range of views around how the RBNZ should consider house prices in its decisions more broadly. For example, one submission noted that house price sustainability should be considered through the letter of expectations instead of the remit. Another submitter argued to instead require the MPC to avoid instability in asset prices more broadly through clause 2(2)(b) in lieu of having clause 2(2)(d)."
In its letter to Robertson outlining subjects for further discussion around the remit, the RBNZ says it believes "that the remit advice should include a consideration for whether clauses 2(2)(d) and 2(3) should be removed and reflected elsewhere, such as the letter of expectations. However, the remit advice should not include a discussion on any expansion of this clause (i.e. making clause 2(2)(d) a stronger consideration for MPC)."
On the inflation target the RBNZ has advised Robertson that "there is not enough evidence to suggest changing from the 2% target (1%-3% band)".
The RBNZ said there was general support in the public consultation for retaining the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as the price stability measure.
"However, many submitters from the wider public wanted more weight on house prices in the measure."
Another area for debate in the remit has been the maximum sustainable employment target that was introduced into the monetary policy targets by this Government.
In its letter to Robertson the RBNZ suggests that weighting or preference between objectives Introducing a hierarchy of objectives (i.e. stating that the MPC should put greater focus on either price stability or maximum sustainable employment) "could mitigate risks around competing price stability and MSE objectives".
The RBNZ said guidance for achieving price stability "could provide more (or less) flexibility for MPC strategy to manage the trade-off between objectives".
"We will consider matters such as the width of the target band, whether an explicit midpoint should be retained, the horizon of the price stability target, and the treatment of transitory events."
RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway said the central bank was pleased with the feedback received.
"We’re grateful for the valuable views and insights raised in the public submissions, including some expert perspectives which we will factor into the next stages of our work on the Remit review."
In a letter back to the RBNZ, Robertson said he agreed with the proposed set of topics the RBNZ intends to consider in its MPC Remit review advice.
"I expect the RBNZ will produce sufficient documentation and engage with the public in a manner that promotes a robust and genuine conversation about possible improvements to the MPC Remit."
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