Labour takes lead in Taxpayer Union poll

Public Policy / news

Chris Hipkins helps Labour take the lead in Taxpayer Union political poll for the first time in 12 months

9th Mar 23, 3:43pm by Dan Brunskill

Chris Hipkins. Photo by Lynn Grieveson for The Kaka.

The Labour Party has taken the lead in the Taxpayers' Union political poll for the first time since March last year as Chris Hipkins' favorability ratings soar.

The survey, conducted by Curia Market Research, has Labour up 1.1 points on last month at 35.5%, while the National Party increased just 0.4 points to 34.8%.

Act and the Greens each dropped a little over 2 points to 9.3% and 5.7%, respectively.

These results would give Labour the most seats in parliament but would likely see the right-learning coalition forming a government.

The National Party and Act would have 61 seats, while the other three parties would have just 59 between them — assuming all electorate seats were held, which is not likely.

The smaller parties were NZ First on 4.2%, New Conservatives on 2.5%, TOP on 1.7%, Māori Party 1.4%, Vision NZ 0.8%, and Democracy NZ 0.5%.

Jacinda Ardern’s replacement appears to be winning some support back to Labour

Newly minted Prime Minister Chris Hipkins' appears to be winning back some support for the Labour Party. His net favorability has soared to 33% and he even has a positive rating of 13% among National voters.

It appears his promise to focus on “bread and butter issues” and cut some projects, such as the RNZ/TVNZ merger, has resonated with voters. The public’s assessment of the party’s ability to manage issues such as inflation and the economy has increased steadily since January.

Opposition leader Christopher Luxon’s net favorability increased by 3 points, but he remains underwater at minus 2%.

An earlier poll showed Labour’s numbers were improving even prior to Ardern’s resignation in late January.

A Roy Morgan survey released Monday showed support for the governing party up 2.5 points in January at 30%.

The polling firm said as 80% of the survey had been done before Hipkins was sworn into the top job, there was “not enough data yet available to draw any early conclusions on his leadership”.

The Taxpayers’ Union’s Curia Poll was conducted from March 2 to March 7. The sample size was 1000 eligible New Zealand voters – 800 by phone and 200 by online panel – weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area.

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125 Comments

by Mr Frank | 9th Mar 23, 3:47pm 1678330070

If National can ganer so many voters without releasing policies (other than the childcare one) Labour should be worried.

Another 3 years of Labour will mean a nation of bludgers and crime paid by hard working Kiwis.

by agnostium | 9th Mar 23, 4:07pm 1678331260

Once they start releasing policies their support will drop even more. Unless of course they don't announce any of their real policies which will scare off the masses.

by OldSkoolEconomics | 9th Mar 23, 6:34pm 1678340078

National have no chance. It doesnt matter so much what policies they have as how they sell them, cost them and if we believe them.

People dont trust or like luxon. The more he sells to us.. is the lower national will fall in polls.

Best way to win.. is to fire luxon a month out and put willis in charge.

Ps. Also they need to sell all their private bloody investment houses.. else it would be like electing someone who would take us backwards.

by Lanthanide | 10th Mar 23, 10:21am 1678396916

Best way to win.. is to fire luxon a month out and put willis in charge.

Anyone thinking Willis can pull off Jacindamania is misguided. Willis is not nearly as likeable, but crucially Jacinda didn't really change Labour's 2017 election policy platform or party machine at all - she was just a fresh face to sell their vision, against a clapped-out and dull National party under English.

If we agree that National's policies are an incoherent mess, only changing the leader at the top will not be sufficient to turn their chances around, especially up against a popular leader such as Hipkins (presuming he stays popular). It'll also look very desperate.

by HouseMouse | 10th Mar 23, 10:30am 1678397402

For me Willis is very similar to Ardern. Presents well, but not a huge amount of substance or intelligence.

A leadership change won’t happen before the election. It would be a terrible look for National.

But it will happen if National don’t win the election.

by PocketAces | 10th Mar 23, 10:39am 1678397940

Willis comes across as another Ruth Richardson rather than Ardern. She is thoroughly unlikable

by Lanthanide | 10th Mar 23, 10:41am 1678398077

Jacinda was actually an astute political operative, she was across all details and hardly ever put a foot wrong - her biggest 'scandal' was calling David Seymour a prick, sentiment that most people agree with. And then she was able to turn that into a way to donate money to charity.

Contrast that to Hipkins, who we have seen tell at least 3-4 significant porkies and refuse to properly acknowledge / apologise for them.

Contrast that to both Luxon and Willis, who in the last week have gotten the Ministry of Health mixed up with Te Whatu Ora - they aren't across the details.

by HouseMouse | 10th Mar 23, 10:52am 1678398729

She led a party that dreamed up totally unachievable policies, to help suck in voters, and then unsurprisingly almost completely failed on delivery.

What does that suggest, choose from the list:

- lack of brains

- lying, or at the very least being economical with the truth

- lack of leadership and party cohesion

- all of the above

by Lanthanide | 10th Mar 23, 11:11am 1678399919

She unexpectedly won in 2017 after being in the leadership spot for 6 weeks, dramatically turning the party's fate around.

She was then saddled with Winston Peters, who directly stopped them from achieving many of their promises.

She led a world-leading, science-based response to the global pandemic.

She achieved the highest vote of any party since 1954 (50.01%), including the first majority government in MMP.

The majority of this term was still dominated by the pandemic, sucking up huge amounts of time and money, both in the executive and across the public sector at large.

All of this in a political environment where raising tax revenues is heresy, having to build back a public sector that had been starved under the previous National government.

She achieved a blood-less hand over of power to her nominated successor, who has revived Labour's popularity in the polls and set them on a strong path to win the next election.

As I said, she was an astute political operative. Look at what she did, rather than what she didn't. Also realise that being PM / government doesn't give you unlimited powers to achieve what you set out to achieve - you have to work with the systems, institutions and people who are in place when you come into power and make the best of them.

Another way to look at it is - what cards was she dealt, and then how well did she play them? She got dealt absolutely shit cards (repeatedly), but managed to win anyway.

by Rumpole | 10th Mar 23, 12:33pm 1678404831

Being astute is not being practical and certainly not "transparent". The hatred and death threats to Jacinda may be an indication that voters neither have trust in Hipkins or Labour and traditional Labour voters may not vote or worse vote green. For the intelligent and those with voter regret should pragmatically electorate vote National, Party vote ACT being the least worse option. Luxon has improved as has National but trust in both is still fragile and other centre right parties may benefit, hopefully not including NZfirst.

by kiwikidsnz | 10th Mar 23, 12:53pm 1678406027

Love your incessant Labour spin - ;).

Ardern didn't "win" in 2017, Winston anointed her.

A dead dog in power would have won the Covid election with a massive majority.

by Whatwillhappen | 10th Mar 23, 2:15pm 1678410939

Labour is currently trailing its 2017 result by 2.3%, and its 2020 result by 14%

by Lanthanide | 10th Mar 23, 2:50pm 1678413047

Ardern didn't "win" in 2017, Winston anointed her.

That's what winning an election is. Becoming prime minister. Bill English didn't win the election because he didn't become prime minister.

Any other silly word games you want to play are a waste of time - the facts are the facts. Labour and Jacinda won.

As I already said, Jacinda was an astute political operator. That is how she won the 2017 election. Bill English was not, and so he lost.

Sorry reality upsets you.

A dead dog in power would have won the Covid election with a massive majority.

Had National actually won the 2017 election, all evidence shows they would have handled COVID much differently - and worse - than Labour did. As we were coming out of the first lockdown, Stephen Joyce (who would have been Finance minister and thus very powerful in cabinet) said that lockdowns were "a scam" and would not prevent COVID from spreading but that they would create huge financial cost for no gain. History shows he was wrong. It is thus entirely reasonable to infer that had National been in power, they would not have pursued the lockdown approach that Labour did. They likely would have let COVID back into the country in late 2020, before vaccines were available.

Right now NZ enjoys a world-leading response - the only country for whom deaths over 2020-2022 are lower than would have otherwise been predicted, had the pandemic not occurred.

It's VERY difficult to improve on such a result as that. But VERY easy to do worse than that - as evidenced by every other country on the planet doing worse.

by Final Account | 10th Mar 23, 11:03am 1678399399

🤣

She carried out the celebrity part of the role very well.

by rastus1 | 10th Mar 23, 10:25am 1678397114

they need to sell all their private bloody investment houses

Any wanna be leader should be doing this on principle. Make a statement otherwise for me they fall into the low trust category.

by interesting1234 | 10th Mar 23, 10:34am 1678397676

Politics will come and go but housing is forever (sarc)

by fortunr | 9th Mar 23, 4:30pm 1678332612

Once they release their policies in detail, it will all depend on what their policies actually are. That might work either way for National.

In any case, these elections are going to be very, very close.

by Lanthanide | 9th Mar 23, 4:33pm 1678332827

When National finally release costed policies, the public will see that the emperor has no clothes and cannot keep all of their promises to cut taxes, maintain services and pay down debt simultaneously.

by Rumpole | 10th Mar 23, 12:37pm 1678405057

On present form you are correct, however if National/ACT cut public sector costs/contractors/wastful expenditure on nice to have but neither fulfilled or required in current circumstances National may be able to pull a small but sufficient Rabbit out of the hat.

by Lanthanide | 10th Mar 23, 3:42pm 1678416139

if

by AndrewRiddell5886 | 11th Mar 23, 5:40pm 1678509618

We are still suffering from when that Mr Key ran down the public services in the name of stopping wasteful public sector inefficiencies that never existed.

National and ACT continue the delusional myths.

by Pragmatist | 9th Mar 23, 4:34pm 1678332874

On the other hand, now that Jacinda is gone, all Labour has to do to pick up more votes is let National trot the dead fish Luxon out in front of cameras and let his lack of personality and charisma scare swing voters back to Chippy. Lack of policy from National doesn;t help, but with the quality of our electors thats only a secondary consideration.

by redcows1 | 9th Mar 23, 4:53pm 1678334007

Bludgers like these childcare ones.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/education/300814789/the-jugglenaut-how…

Criminals like this.

https://www.ird.govt.nz/media-releases/2023/former-manhattan-developer-…

by youngdumbandfullofit | 9th Mar 23, 11:54pm 1678359242

So nice that bludgers and criminals all just play nice whenever the blues are in power.

by King of the whiners | 9th Mar 23, 3:57pm 1678330655

Chuckle. Despite the numerous rants on this forum about Labour, they are still most definitely in with a shout come election time.

I personally would like to see ACT's policies forensically dissected - their libertarian nastiness cannot remain hidden for too much longer one hopes........

by agnostium | 9th Mar 23, 4:08pm 1678331337

Yeah, a vote for National is a vote for Act.

by agnostium | 9th Mar 23, 4:22pm 1678332167

by Albert2020 | 9th Mar 23, 4:11pm 1678331482

Brooke got absolutely schooled by Chloe on Breakfast earlier this week. Had very little understanding of the topic

by Lanthanide | 9th Mar 23, 4:35pm 1678332931

Of course not, she's an Act MP.

Libertarians are like house cats: absolutely convinced of their fierce independence while utterly dependent on a system they don't appreciate or understand.

by agnostium | 9th Mar 23, 6:58pm 1678341492

Wonderful analogy.

by pigeonbox | 9th Mar 23, 10:10pm 1678353038

That is brilliant 👏

by DD62 | 9th Mar 23, 10:59pm 1678355995

With your bombastic prose,your constant hyping of TOP and now your reference to cats, it could easily be construed that you maybe the founder of TOP. Why do you want to "lie hidden"?

by Lanthanide | 10th Mar 23, 10:24am 1678397054

Keep grasping at straws.

As I have now said several times, I am not a member of any political party, have never been, and I work in private industry in IT.

But thanks for comparing me to the very successful Gareth Morgan (even if he was a totally crap politician).

by DD62 | 10th Mar 23, 5:56pm 1678424211

An observation only, couldn't care less one way or the other! And you can take it anyway you like, but trust me, it's no compliment as Gareth lost the plot!

As for your self professed debating skills, you don"t debate you lecture. You apparently have a very high regard for your own intelligence. You stopped commenting for quite a while and the site was much better for it!

by blobbles | 10th Mar 23, 11:05am 1678399500

I mean they have 1.7% support, thats roughly 70k people. They aren't all leader of the party.

by Rumpole | 10th Mar 23, 12:40pm 1678405208

Recent taxpayers poll shows Greens close to 5% - 4.9% = oblivion.

by Lanthanide | 10th Mar 23, 12:50pm 1678405829

If you ignore that Chloe Swarbrick is very likely to retain her electorate, sure.

by nicko252 | 9th Mar 23, 5:57pm 1678337879

I got the impression she was just pivoting to her talking points, not necessarily that she didn't understand. Perhaps I'm giving her too much credit.

by JimboJones | 9th Mar 23, 4:46pm 1678333612

I don't necessarily mind the fact they are libertarian. I do mind the fact they are only libertarian when it suits.

by sharetrader | 9th Mar 23, 7:00pm 1678341614

i could not follow ACT in particularly the hypocrisy of the leader when he complains which is almost daily over what others say about himself or his party while he himself does the same back to other people or parties. this is supposed to be the most liberal party when it comes to free speech and debate yet he acts like a little cheeky kid that can give it but not take it so runs to mum when someone says something mean back to him.

i watched the ACT member last night stand up and say ACT will vote against the taxing of GST to airbnb and urber even though he himself thinks they have an unfair advantage on local business whom do have to pay GST and pleaded with national that when they come into power to in fact support the measure

by JimboJones | 9th Mar 23, 7:13pm 1678342408

Seymour is great at criticising others, but doesn’t have a lot to offer himself.

by IT GUY | 9th Mar 23, 7:39pm 1678343973

Thats the exact reason Labour got rid of Jacinda

by agnostium | 9th Mar 23, 8:07pm 1678345663

Pretty sure she just had enough of all the personal abuse

by kiwikidsnz | 9th Mar 23, 8:34pm 1678347284

History will judge Ardern as a monumentally weak leader who lost control of her Govt and wasted a unique mandate on racist undemocratic policies she never put to the electorate.

She killed it with kindness.

Nothing to do with misogyny. I voted for her, twice.

by King of the whiners | 9th Mar 23, 9:33pm 1678350815

Sure you did.

by kiwikidsnz | 10th Mar 23, 8:23am 1678389828

Your username well reflects your level of petty tribal discourse. More appropriate forums might appreciate it.

by agnostium | 10th Mar 23, 10:23am 1678397035

OK we'll see if that is how she is remembered with time.

My comment was in response to a poster who said she was pushed out by Labour for some reason or another. I disagree, I think she chose to leave because of the all the abuse and I do not blame her at all.

by PocketAces | 10th Mar 23, 12:01pm 1678402902

No, that was the abuse and threats directed at her began to include her 5 year old daughter.

by blobbles | 10th Mar 23, 11:11am 1678399885

That's classic political rhetoric when you are ideologue. You will say one thing but do another. Guarantee if they get to decide housing policy it will be to give people with batches some sort of tax write off while making housing more expensive. Bought to you by their donors.

by Foxglove. | 9th Mar 23, 4:09pm 1678331351

Jim Bolger said “bugger the polls.” Not one to utter much more than clichés, he was nonetheless not wide of the mark with that remark. There wasn’t then either the turbulence that is looming for New Zealand this election year. It would be widely premature to read anything of substance into polls at this stage of proceedings but that won’t prevent the to be expected partisanship on here, shrilling into insults and bragging.

by JohnTrz | 9th Mar 23, 4:05pm 1678331105

Greens are looking shaky. They need Chlöe at the helm quickly to make it back into Parliament.

by Lanthanide | 9th Mar 23, 4:38pm 1678333110

Er, why? She is very likely to win her electorate, and won't need to be a party leader to do it.

There's a reasonably strong chance that she'll run for Auckland mayor in 2025 and defeat Wayne Brown, or whomever his lame duck successor is if he's had the uncharacteristic good sense to resign by then.

by agnostium | 9th Mar 23, 6:59pm 1678341553

Desley will likely be the next right wing mayoral candidate.

by JimboJones | 9th Mar 23, 7:14pm 1678342446

And the next mayor. If she wants it.

by agnostium | 9th Mar 23, 8:12pm 1678345967

She'll be a bit tainted by association with Brown and she's been a Cllr for several terms with Goff so she is definitely establishment status quo figure which may not work in her favour. Also the rampant misogyny. But she is an immensely capable candidate.

by JimboJones | 9th Mar 23, 8:22pm 1678346522

I think capable is what people are looking for. It felt like we didn’t get anywhere under Goff and Brown is a disaster. I don’t necessarily agree with Desleys ideology but at least she might get stuff done.

by IT GUY | 9th Mar 23, 9:50pm 1678351843

Goff left brown this budget nightmare..... he is solving it

by agnostium | 10th Mar 23, 10:24am 1678397099

Solving it??? 😂😂😂

by Lanthanide | 10th Mar 23, 10:52am 1678398749

Correction: while Goff was mayor, a 1 in 100 year global pandemic happened, which Goff grappled with the fallout from for the rest of his term before retiring, having spent decades at national and then local government levels in NZ politics.

by Rumpole | 10th Mar 23, 12:46pm 1678405573

Wayne is suffering a 1 in 100 years flooding and a budget issue left by a lefty Mayor and its early days so give him a chance to prove himself or not.

by Lanthanide | 10th Mar 23, 12:51pm 1678405896

He's already proven himself during the 1 in 100 years flood. Especially compared to how Hipkins and the government responded to that same flooding event, and then the subsequent 1 in 100 years hurricane.

by Albert2020 | 9th Mar 23, 4:12pm 1678331559

Can hear Winston dusting off that pinstripe all the way from up North...

by Tim Depositor | 9th Mar 23, 4:19pm 1678331973

Hipkins seems to have done "an Ardern" on Ardern (viz Ardren on Little). That's politics I guess!

This poll shows even National supporters appreciate a guy you can trust not just like the his politics. We are in uncertain times still. Chippy will do his best for the country.

by KH | 9th Mar 23, 4:25pm 1678332316

Chippy as a minister did his best - and left a trail of destruction behind him.

Notably Education

by Stephen06 | 9th Mar 23, 4:48pm 1678333681

And Little with Health..."there is no crisis in our ED's". Lying all the way.

Or should I say, too little, too late.

Time for Little to be sacked as an incompetent Minister.

by kiwikidsnz | 9th Mar 23, 4:38pm 1678333137

"...a guy you can trust..."

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/09/chris-hipkins-won-t-apologise-for-claiming-women-used-false-information-to-cross-northland-border.html

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/129043872/journalist-charlotte-bellis-accepts-minister-chris-hipkins-apology-for-incorrect-claims

by DD62 | 9th Mar 23, 5:51pm 1678337484

Yep! "Chippy" has been caught out many, many times throughout his political career telling massive porky's!!! Someone you can "trust". Get real!

by dumbthoughts | 9th Mar 23, 6:36pm 1678340190

Doesn't matter because he is cool and a certified chill dude and Luxon is not.

I couldn't vote for Chippy because of just how many times he's been caught out lying now - Northland prostitutes, Charlotte Bellis, claiming the tax take is lower than when Labour took over, he just can't help himself. I'd love someone to pull a Matt Hancock on him and let us see the contents of his text messages, I suspect there would be some zingers.

I like my politicians to be a bit more subtle in their dishonesty, but I'm jaded enough to know that is all irrelevant because most people would rather sit next to him on a plane, myself included, and that worked for John Key and it will work for Chippy.

This is not an endorsement for Luxon, the man put on Earth to reinflate the NZ housing market. I don't like him either.

At this point, nobody really takes my fancy.

by Lanthanide | 10th Mar 23, 10:28am 1678397336

Vote TOP.

by agnostium | 9th Mar 23, 4:22pm 1678332123

"But the lead is wafer thin, National is on 34.8 per cent, a fall of 0.4 points. Thanks to Act’s support, National would still be in government on this poll.

National is also up - rising 0.4 points to 34.8."

Usual reporting standards from the NZ Herald

by JamesM | 9th Mar 23, 4:34pm 1678332896

I just don’t get why people vote for parties with no chance of gaining an electorate seat or 5% of the vote.

By my count that poll indicates 10% of voters will have their vote discarded.

by Pragmatist | 9th Mar 23, 4:38pm 1678333123

Because its better than voting for either side of the fake Red/Blue dichotomy and getting more of what we've been getting in the last two decades.

by Lanthanide | 9th Mar 23, 4:40pm 1678333217

Because they feel those parties best represent their interests, for whatever reason.

by kiwikidsnz | 9th Mar 23, 4:50pm 1678333820

There are people who make things happen, there are people who watch things happen, and there are people who wonder what happened.

There are also people who didnt realise anything happened.

by Blackdog | 10th Mar 23, 7:36am 1678386978

Gold

by Von Metternich | 9th Mar 23, 5:06pm 1678334771

I am deeply skeptical of any content coming out of David Farrar's political machine. People I knew at university worked in his call centre factory for public opinion polling and largely felt he was always selectively biasing his sample results to create bandwagon effects.

Private polls and public polls often have very different results apparently.

by IT GUY | 9th Mar 23, 5:11pm 1678335117

Betfair has

1.18 National
3.5 Labour
50.0 Green
75.0 ACT New Zealand
100.0 NZ First
100.0 Maori Party

by JimboJones | 9th Mar 23, 5:30pm 1678336229

A punt on Labour sounds like a good option then. Not saying they will win, but they are much better than $3.50. Particularly as National are yet to announce any policies and they may be unpopular.

by HouseMouse | 9th Mar 23, 6:07pm 1678338446

That’s not a bad bet (on Labour).

I won’t take it up though, would rather bet against the All Blacks

by mfd | 9th Mar 23, 6:12pm 1678338767

They are pretty tight on National there - on the Betfair Exchange you can back them for 1.42 at the moment. And lay Labour for 3.45...

by IT GUY | 9th Mar 23, 7:43pm 1678344219

exchange is always better, HM you can lay all blacks now on exchange, I think ABs have a chance its about depth , RWC often means you have an almost no body kicking for goal at minute 78 near the final...... Dmac.... you the man.

by HouseMouse | 9th Mar 23, 10:15pm 1678353304

How do you access the Exchange and what are they offering for the ABs to not win the Cup?

For mind the ABs are far too flaky and the forwards average at best. Defence wins cups and ours is weak. And throw in a mediocre coach and lots of uncertainty around the future.

by agnostium | 9th Mar 23, 7:03pm 1678341804

What are these odds for? Most votes or forming a government?

by IT GUY | 9th Mar 23, 7:44pm 1678344297

biggest party forming they have well defined t and c at the moment act are the obvious king makers.

by agnostium | 9th Mar 23, 8:14pm 1678346048

Interesting. Labour odds not that bad actually.

by dumbthoughts | 9th Mar 23, 6:09pm 1678338569

Not even Christopher Luxon likes Christopher Luxon at this point.

by ngakonui gold | 9th Mar 23, 6:20pm 1678339225

Anyone remember Chippy on the podium of truth nodding in agreement with everything JA said and then went into the debating chamber and did the same thing.

by IT GUY | 9th Mar 23, 7:46pm 1678344386

he does not have control of willie jackson......

by Squishy | 9th Mar 23, 6:53pm 1678341210

Budget brand John Key has never captured the public the way he did the National Party itself.

by JimboJones | 9th Mar 23, 8:18pm 1678346283

It’s a bit of a waiting game at the moment with both major parties reluctant to release their policies too early. It’s hard to take any poll seriously when voters have no idea what National (or Labour) intend to do.

by sharetrader | 9th Mar 23, 9:02pm 1678348957

national announced today they would remove the hurdle for overseas parties to build to rent apartment blocks and return depreciation and interest deductibly, on the face of it seems like a good idea but remember that horrible thing called the accommodation supplement which now runs at 2 billion per year, so we as the taxpayer would be boosting some overseas funds return to house people in NZ, if they said yes you can build here and rent but your tenants cannot collect an accommodation supplement the policy would get a yes tick from me. these would also be heavily leveraged investments to take advantage of our tax rules and most likely run at zero profit with the end game of capital gain when sold after 20 years

by PocketAces | 10th Mar 23, 12:08pm 1678403282

Let's face it, accommodation supplements are in all but name, made to landlords.

by Lanthanide | 10th Mar 23, 12:20pm 1678404031

Yip. Very hard policy to unpick though - just like Working For Families. Both need to go.

by SND | 9th Mar 23, 8:26pm 1678346784

I'm too curious to see if National's promise to reverse interest deductibility will have an impact on the current downward spiral not to vote for them.

by Black and White | 9th Mar 23, 9:38pm 1678351130

Fantastic

I like chippy he is doing a fantastic job.

by nktokyo | 9th Mar 23, 10:12pm 1678353172

The economy hasn't properly sh*t itself yet and they're getting positive exposure from the recent crisis and Wayne Brown being a jackass.

Give it a few months. Builders will be going under, the weather will be crap and they will be reducing roading funding to make cycleways.

by Lanthanide | 10th Mar 23, 11:25am 1678400705

Yes, and when the economy does shit itself, who do you think is going to be more credible to managing it?

The party giving tax cuts to the rich? The party that says they want to help with the cost of living crisis, but opposes giving pay rises to those paid least in society?

by agnostium | 10th Mar 23, 10:32am 1678397538

"they will be reducing roading funding to make cycleways"

That isn't the plan at all. The plan is to make sure that if a cycleways is supposed to be built on a road it is built at the same time as they do the maintenance to save money on having to dig up a newly refurbished road. It is sensible and will save money both in the short term and long term.

Also newsflash - cycleways are minimal maintenance compared to roads as people on bikes don't weigh one ton and therefore they cause less wear an tear. If you get more people cycling (No I don't mean force everyone to cycle, I just mean those that want to but cannot because the roads are too dangerous for them) then we all save money on road maintenance and people in cars face less traffic as it's getting other cars off the road.

What is it with people getting triggered by cycling??? It's completely bizarre.

by blobbles | 10th Mar 23, 11:30am 1678401042

Yeah, it's really weird. Cycle and pedestrian infrastructure has been something like <2% of the national budget for roads for like 50 years and people talk about it like they are 80% or something. Cyclists are also 1m wide and about 1000 of them fit into the same space as around 40 people in cars. And those 40 cars have increased in weight by around 30% and their average width has increased significantly as well, over the past 50 years (check here). But you won't hear drivers talking about how they are sorry for taking up ever more space on the public infrastructure. Instead a single occupant 2 tonne Ford Ranger with a 11.5 sqm footprint will pull up next to a cyclist with a 1.5 sqm footprint and yell out the window at them for taking up a lane and "acting entitled". It's hilariously idiotic.

by fat pat | 10th Mar 23, 3:19am 1678371559

I wonder how many of the covid-alienated who protested at parliament building will be voting labour or greens this time around. I would guess close to 0%.

by nzphoenix | 10th Mar 23, 7:39am 1678387142

They wouldn’t vote. The elections are rigged, remember?

by buyandhodl | 10th Mar 23, 10:08am 1678396116

You're buying into the Fire & Fury mockumentary take there. Most of the people who were at those protests weren't nutjobs, they were ordinary folk who'd lost their jobs for refusing to have their universal human rights infringed. Most of them also voted Labour/Green the election before...

\They seem to want to vote Act, but he keeps shutting them down in public debates/facebook comments section lol

by Pragmatist | 10th Mar 23, 10:11am 1678396301

Your take on the matter is.. highly improbable.

by fat pat | 10th Mar 23, 1:09pm 1678406941

There were a heck of a lot of protestors there, and they were mostly traditional labour supporters. The actual turnout would have only been a tiny fraction of those who held those opinions. The evidence that's come out since then has only reinforced how correct the protestors were, but the media just keeps gaslighting them. Labour's going to have their ass handed to them on a plate this election.

by iliketobike | 10th Mar 23, 5:45pm 1678423511

Looks like around half voted for the left, correct on the gaslighting, hope you are right about the election.

https://familyfirst.org.nz/2023/03/02/media-release-analysis-of-media-coverage-of-parliament-protest-2022/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=media-release-analysis-of-media-coverage-of-parliament-protest-2022

by blobbles | 10th Mar 23, 2:35pm 1678412118

I went down personally to check it out and had a chat to quite a few people. A lot of people there on sickness benefits and unemployed. A lot of people there with agendas other than anti mandate, most of them on either side of the extreme political spectrum - super leftist hippy types and ultra right nationalists - this seemed to be only 5% of the crowd, but main instigators/angry people. Quite a few Maori protesting land/society grievances.

Really it was a motley mob who didn't have any coherent message except they were all "anti government" for one reason or the other. Probably wouldn't have mattered who was in power as red or blue their response would have almost certainly been identical.

by fat pat | 10th Mar 23, 10:17pm 1678439826

You're wrong. The coherent message was very clear to "End the Mandate!". We all suffer from confirmation bias. I viewed the covid years digging into the scientific literature myself, and also listening to experts like Tess Lawrie, Peter McCullough, Jay Bhattacharya, Martin Kulldorff, Sunetra Gupta, Simon Thornley and many others. I donated money to VFF and still read their material along with that of NZDSOS. My view of the media and political landscape has completely changed. But hey - I thought Dan Andrews was the Australian reincarnation of Joseph Stalin but he got re-elected so maybe there's hope for you labour supporters.

by Pragmatist | 10th Mar 23, 10:10am 1678396224

Its' okay, they will waste their votes on Groundswell, one party or the Tamaki mob, if they bother to vote at all.

by Stuart Mason | 10th Mar 23, 6:34am 1678383282

If National can't win the next election with all the ammo they have been given by Labour to fire at them since 2020, they deserve to be out of power for a very, very, long time.

by gnx | 10th Mar 23, 7:59am 1678388369

Here's some reaction to luxon in rangiora

People are sick of the bullshit from national.....time to get real! could they lose it from here....hell yeah

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8yDxYvRHuH8

by Waikatohome | 10th Mar 23, 1:25pm 1678407910

Thanks for sharing. The last comment is telling. Luxon does go over and over the same things, and people have stopped listening to him because he bores them. I remember Muller, Collins and Luxon all sounding quite credible and fresh in their first few days of leadership, but it soon wore off and they slipped back into only speaking to the party faithful and losing the swing voters. Is this down to the advisors within National? They seem to be unable to broaden their appeal beyond the base. We deserve an effective alternative to Labour, where is the talent in the National Caucus?

by IT GUY | 10th Mar 23, 10:05am 1678395913

In Act

by agnostium | 10th Mar 23, 10:35am 1678397731

The National Caucus is made up of people who are in politics to serve the interests of the already wealthy. Their appeal declines as the wealthy become fewer and fewer.

by Lanthanide | 10th Mar 23, 10:36am 1678397817

It's not their advisers, it's their general policy platform. They are running 1990's / early 2000s policies for a demographic base that has moved on.

It's kind of amusing really, John Key got into power by filing all sharp edges off of National's traditional policy platform, being aspirational and a friendly approachable guy. English lost his 2nd election in 2017 because he couldn't fill those shoes.

Luxon is has a very thin veneer of Key's charm covering up their 20th century policy platform. It isn't going to work. The tories in the UK are doing similar under Rishi - Labour there have about a 20-30 point polling advantage over them.

by TheAnalyst | 11th Mar 23, 4:08pm 1678504101

Actually English polled very well in the 2017 election. You seem to constantly brush over the fact that Winston annointed Jacinda in 2017 because he had a score to settle with the National Party and Labour was so desperate to get into power they gave into all Winnie's demands. Provincial Growth Fund for example, yeah that did a lot of good for the country.

You can twist and spin it anyway you want with your word soup but Labour were handed power and were woefully lacking the ability to govern.

5 years later and every metric for being a first world country is in decline. Possibly terminally.

by Averageman | 10th Mar 23, 6:46am 1678384011

Oh...the speculative suddenly feel the need for pepto pills.

by Blackdog | 10th Mar 23, 7:35am 1678386924

the poll reinforces just how thick the average NZ voter is. 6 years of decline in the education sector didn't help. Little wonder greens and labour want to give 10 year olds the vote.

by kiwikidsnz | 10th Mar 23, 8:29am 1678390181

It seems somewhat more than ironic that the case is being argued for 16yo to have the vote at the same time as the judiciary is accepting arguments for reductions in criminal responsibility & sentencing on the basis that juvenile brains don't fully develop until 25.

by FCM | 10th Mar 23, 8:14am 1678389256

I hope labour do get back in, I hope interest rates climb to 9%, I hope when you are sick you can't get in to see a doctor or get surgery for a live threatening condition, I hope you lose our job to get the inflation target back under 3, I hope the countries debt blows out to such an amount that their is little to no hope of ever paying it back and your children and grandchildren will get taxed 50% to pay it back, I hope that the teacher shortage means you have 1 to 60 class ratios and NZ literacy and education system is the leading 3rd world system it is turning out to be. I also hope if they get back in, then if you voted for them, you don't moan you are struggling to eat or pay the bills, or you have just been assaulted outside the supermarket carpark for some $ or food.

by agnostium | 10th Mar 23, 10:37am 1678397835

I hope National/Act get back in, I hope interest rates climb to 9%, I hope when you are sick you can't get in to see a doctor or get surgery for a live threatening condition, I hope you lose our job to get the inflation target back under 3, I hope the countries debt blows out to such an amount that their is little to no hope of ever paying it back and your children and grandchildren will get taxed 50% to pay it back, I hope that the teacher shortage means you have 1 to 60 class ratios and NZ literacy and education system is the leading 3rd world system it is turning out to be. I also hope if they get in, then if you voted for them, you don't moan you are struggling to eat or pay the bills, or you have just been assaulted outside the supermarket carpark for some $ or food.

by agnostium | 10th Mar 23, 11:32am 1678401153

* I obviously do not hope that this happens, just highlighting how unhelpful these sorts of comments are.

by FCM | 10th Mar 23, 12:22pm 1678404130

not unhelpful when they point out just where NZ is at.

by vman | 10th Mar 23, 11:15am 1678400146

Matthew Hooton: Polls all point in the wrong direction for National

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/matthew-hooton-polls-all-point-in-t…

by dollar_bill | 10th Mar 23, 1:02pm 1678406566

At least Hipkins is a personable fella as was John Key - Luxon is about as inspiring as a smoked fish without a tangy white sauce or sprig of parsley in sight.

by Chris-M | 10th Mar 23, 1:06pm 1678406769

All very hopeful now but sadly when the hospital system collapses in winter it will all be lost for Labor.