A third poll shows New Zealand First with enough support to return to Parliament, again proving the golden rule of politics: never rule out Winnie.
The Taxpayers' Union – Curia poll released on Thursday is the third consecutive poll showing Winston Peters’ party with enough support to clear the 5% threshold.
It came after the inaugural Guardian – Essential poll had NZ First at 5.3% on Wednesday, and a Roy Morgan poll put him right on the 5% threshold earlier this month.
Both these polls could be considered to be lower-quality, but the Curia poll was conducted by industry veteran and National Party pollster David Farrar.
It shows NZ First comfortably clearing the hurdle, with 5.8% of the vote.
This would give the party seven seats in Parliament, but still allow National and Act to form a coalition government without their support.
Winston Peters’ party has held the balance of power in three separate elections and supported both Labour and National governments.
This time around, he has ruled out working with Labour and has courted voters who opposed Jacinda Ardern’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
However, this does not mean he will be welcomed into the centre-right coalition.
National Party leader Christopher Luxon has so far declined to rule out working with New Zealand First, but his probable coalition partner the Act Party has already done it for him.
David Seymour, Act Party leader, has ruled out working with New Zealand First if it were given ministerial Cabinet positions.
However, it does leave room for either party to sit on the cross benches and provide confidence and supply to National and whichever coalition partner it chooses.
Labour currently holds a majority in Parliament and governs alone, but it has a cooperation agreement with the Greens providing extra votes in exchange for ministerial positions outside of cabinet.
A National-Act coalition could reach a similar agreement with New Zealand First, or shut the party out entirely if it had enough votes.
It’s unlikely—but not impossible—that National and NZ First would have enough votes between them to form a Government without the support of Act.
Finally, Peters has been known to be flexible with his language and the possibility of NZ First supporting a third term Labour government could not be completely ruled out.
Labour pains
The Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll does not show that as a possible outcome in this particular snapshot in time, as Labour has fallen sharply in recent polls.
Curia showed them down 4 points at just 27% support, while Guardian’s Essential poll had them at 29%, and Roy Morgan at just 26%.
Different polls cannot always be compared to each other, as they may use different methodologies, however the trend appears to show support for Labour ebbing.
The Green Party would generally be the biggest beneficiary in any lost support for Labour, and that was the case in the Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll.
It picked up three of four points Labour lost, while National only gained 1.6 points, leaving the balance between the coalition blocs relatively unchanged.
National and Act would be able to scrape together a government with 61 seats, or 68 if it was supported by NZ First, while the left-leaning bloc could only gather 52 seats.
Labour would be unable to form a government even if a change of heart from Peters delivered support from his party’s seven seats.
However, those seats are just calculated from one single poll and are not predictive of what will happen on election night.
The campaign begins in earnest in three weeks time and both blocs will be working hard to win over the public.
118 Comments
The current crop of MPs only have themselves to blame. I might even go 2 ticks NZ First at this rate!
Winston Peters could be the gift NZ's parliament deserves. Come October 14th imagine the faces on the wee luvvies - pulling off the silver bow, opening their oversized gift box.. ..then out pops Winston !
Oh the joy =)
Amongst that, in the forthcoming ruins of this government, there will undoubtedly be much wailing and gnashing of teeth of the well vented Maori faction in caucus and in that there is more than a little irony. For they are the architects of their own demise in so much, by their subjectivity and insistence on policies of racial selectivity they have effectively white- anted their host, the Labour Party.
Dont underestimate the ability of this Labour lot to buy some votes with some policy announcememts that apeal to the underclass and the morons on the cusp
Talk is cheap, delivery is slow... except if your Maori, poor, Green, car dwelling, or gay?
I hope i am wrong and they depart the moral shores in a viking burial stylz.
Biggest comeback since George Foreman laced 'em up again in the late 1980s.
Even though he's no doubt just in it for himself again, I cannot help but admire his hustle and the fact that he understands you only need to pick a couple of hot topics to get yourself over the 5% mark.
NZF would normally get over the 5% mark, but in 2020 their core voters were pissed off at the high levels of immigration, and the elderly grateful for Labour saving them from covid. In the 2021 Predictions I said NZF would fold. Wrong.
This election those core voters will come back to Winnie. I am also expecting a big deal to be made of Nact selling our assets in the final weeks of the campaign to scare voters off them. Winnie could end up with 10 MPs yet. And no he won't reneg on his promise not to go with Labour...that would be a NZF death sentence.
In 2020 the oldies thought that Jacinda had single handedly saved them from death - she went on TV every day and told them so. But its now 2023 and they have all realised that rather than being saved from dying from Covid, they were left to die alone from all their other diseases (most of which they could no longer get treatment for due to the hospitals being closed) with no friends or family in attendance to hold their hand, or to bury them. And the vast majority of them all got Covid in the end and survived.
The other half of Winston's voter base were simply p****d off that he went with Labour in 2017. He may or may not get those ones back.
There are a lot of people not happy with Labour, nor inspired by anything National comes up with.
TOP should have positioned themselves for the last twelve months to pick up these votes by releasing a simplified subset of existing policies early - I advocated for 4 or 5 max given the Conservatives got 4% with that many. I'd also have had them all out 12 months ago to give people a better chance to discover what TOP stood for. If a hot button topic came up during the campaign period, then sure, add a policy for it too.
They still have the single best policy of LVT and tax switch and deserve a vote for that forward focus. Just wish they hadn't dropped gimmies like population/immigration that could have differentiated themselves from the other parties and fitted in well with the affordable housing message (suppress demand).
Your comment explains the problem. Naive and a failing to understand tax and welfare (or not wanting to) and the problem the current policies are creating..
The majority who don't need to get out of bed are those on Nat Super.
TOP policy would ensure those who did get out would be rewarded for it (and not just non icome tested 65+s).
But you stick with the failed main parties and make sure nothing changes.
(sorry was in edit mode but comments posted while processing)
People who can't be bothered getting out of bed already get a benefit and so far as I know no major party proposes to change that. TOP are proposing more money for those who DO work, not for those who don't. Yes, it means less money for those getting their wealth from rent, some of whom may have worked hard for those rented assets, but what's the alternative? The status quo of pillaging workers' pay to fund everyone else has failed.
The problem with rentierism - eventually we run out of other people's work.
That's an issue many like to spin: once you have bought an asset with money earned from adding value to society you don't get a free pass for life. Saved 300k to buy a home? Great! Now it's 2 mil? "But ma' hard work", not acknowledging that the 1.7M gain was on the back of others who actually added value in society. Yes, you get bragging rights for your 300k, the rest is parasitic behaviour
Once again: its still the same asset with the same market value. This is not the same as price which simply reflects money as the medium of exchange, re/devalued by monetary and fiscal policies outside the control of the asset owners.
There is no real "profit" in such asset CGs (note this not the same argueable case in business goodwill CGs).
If you are bailing on TOP who are you voting for? Dont think I can vote Labour. Cant vote Nats if they are going to re-ignite our housing issues. I have kids and care about them so Act not an option. Maybe Greens if they were only focused on the environment. Kind of left in no mans land...
I think it's the other way around - people who've got sick of Labour but don't fancy 7-house Luxon and his party for property speculators, or ACT packaging up NZ to flog off to the highest bidder.
Plus there's also the prospect of the entertainment value of Seymour vs Winnie.
Well, well over a century ago, Mark Twain summed it up as. “ Some people think that New Zealand is close to Australia or Asia or somewhere, and that you can cross to it on a bridge. But that is not so. It is not close to anything, but lies by itself, out there in the water.” Sure jet air travel has arrived, but during covid, the lockdown, that sentiment was alive and relevant wasn’t it.
Europe is closer to Asia than New Zealand is.
And Asia is very different from Europe.
New Zealand as a recreation of a European country is really quite awesome.
It's actually terrible, because the expectation is for NZ to be Europe-like, whilst lacking the core foundations that makes most European countries what they are (a long shared cultural history, and proximity to the rest of Europe).
Well here's your problem, I asked my kids, two of are now voting age, have they heard about TOP, both said no, as did there partners. I asked them do they know Labour, National, yes, then ACT and NZ first, and yes to both. TOP need get social media campaign together as it's not what is flashing up on peoples social media accounts.
This, I keep saying the most common response I get is "what's TOP". Yet for the last year plus they have been spending time perfecting policy. They needed to cut dead wood catered to better by other parties, such as Maori owning the rivers. Then simplify what was left RFRM to LVT was a good effort and just spread the word about what they stood for (I'd have suggested a focus on housing affordability as the largest cost of living component).
Having the best policy doesn't mean anything if no one has heard about it or it's too long for anyone to be bothered reading.
The masses do not understand what TOP stands for, hell, I'm a member and I don't really know.
I do know their LVT with tax free threshold (tax switch from productive work to land) is miles better than every other party's best policy. But they also have new contradictions (compared with TOP 1.0) such as wanting affordable houses and not addressing demand (population ponzi). Did the evidence change? I think not.
I advocate for what I believe is good policy for a better, fairer, New Zealand. If you read the other posts I have made in this thread, they are far from advocating for TOP - indeed, some are a bit critical.
In the last day or two I have replied to a lot of your specific questions about LVT and TOP policy, so you probably have to share some of the blame for the number of posts I've made!
BTW, since you've had your fill, what is your verdict on TOP's tax switch (LVT and income tax-free threshold of 15k)? Good, bad or indifferent?
Not an old voter here, NZF has been a check on the two larger parties that have their usual flaws they never seem to be able to overcome. Also mixes well in foreign affairs as they are all old and old school, actually been one of our most effective MPs. Show me where any party is not about also self interest.
Yes, you have to admit that the first Labour term with NZF was far, far superior to the second term without them. Whilst they still didnt achieve much, at least they didn't break anything as badly as they have done over the last few years, nor did they manage to racially divide the country so brutally. And you should bear in mind that Winston was effectively Acting PM for most of that term as Jacinda was away on maternity leave or on one of her many overseas junkets most of the time, making him the only adult in the room.
I actually thought he bought a level of balance to Labour/Greens when he was part of the coalition.
I compare the government he was involved in during the previous election cycle and it (in my opinion) performed far better than what we have had the last 3 years which has gone much too far to the left.
Perhaps he might do the same for a National/Act coalition (however that might work....)
who thought is was a good idea for bill english the guy that got winston kicked out of the national party to be involved in trying to talk winston into making him PM. as soon as i saw that i knew that was never ever going to happen it was the ultimate revenge, he is gone now alone with the rest that went against him to get kicked out so now he can work with them again, he is more aligned with national than labour so unless labour offer to make him PM i can not see him going back on his word this time
It brings in the possibility of the Greens been able to persuade their members to go with National / NZF, on the grounds of keeping their worst enemy, ACT, out of the government.
I think the only thing that is sure , is that we are unlikely to have a government decided on Saturday night.
I just realised you meant the MPs to form a coalition, not the MPs to suggest strategic voting. Similar strategic voting ideas were flaunted on Reddit and I got confused
Unlikely, though, for Greens - Nats to have better chemistry than N/act, but interesting thinking outside the box
What I was meaning was because the greens have to run any coalition deal past their members( well actually their delegates),it is generally accepted they would not go with the Nats, even if the MPS wanted too. but if it mean't keeping ACT out of power , they might be able to convince the members to go with confidence and supply with National.A full coalition still remains unlikely.
We've come a long way in 65000 years, we won't go that far back
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aboriginal_Australians#:~:text=Aborigin….
So you are saying you don’t believe their results because in your opinion they are too right wing? Does that mean they cannot add or are incompetent even thought their results align with every other poll which indicates a crashing of labour support base pointing to them being toast at the election?
That number is highly variable from poll to poll, the main point is the poll is consistent with the others in that it points to labour being gone. The preferred PM is unusual because the opposition leader is equal with the PM which makes Chris L one of the best performing opposition leaders ever, and Chris H one of the worst. This is still the case when they are a few % apart regardless of who does the polling.
Dan, when you report polls you should include the margins of error in the reporting.
Using the Roy Morgan guide to the margin of error at different polling numbers, these are roughly the 95% bands
National somewhere between 31.9% and 37.9%
Labour somewhere between 24.1% and 30.1%
Greens somewhere between 9.3% and 14.7%
ACT somewhere between 10.3% and 15.7%
NZ First somewhere between 4.5% and 7.1%
Māori Party somewhere between 1.2% and 3.8%
The best polls are the sports betting sites. Current odds National $1.45 and Labour $2.75
https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/new-zealand-politics/next…
PS. what happened to the NZ web site that enabled political betting? I believe that was pretty accurate.
The Nats are so self-righteous they still dont understand why they aren't in goverment. And thats why nothing has changed within the Party for eons. Same-ole-blue-chip arrogance. The thought of Luxon at the helm is a very underwhelming prospect. But hey, ""god-bless"" you Christopher as your god-given right to govern. At least Winnie will keep them in check, even if it is self-serving. Just for balance, Labour couldnt orangise themselves out of a paper-bag with an endless supply of money. What a cherry start to the day. Onward!
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