A new Ilam poll shows The Opportunities Party leader Raf Manji fighting the Labour candidate for second place, while National’s Hamish Campbell takes the lead.
With TOP well below the 5% threshold in national polls, Manji’s bid to win an electoral seat in Christchurch’s Ilam is likely the party’s only path to Parliament.
That path looks to be an uphill climb according to a Taxpayers’ Union – Curia poll released on Tuesday evening. It showed Manji with just 18% of the vote, putting him in third place.
National’s Campbell was comfortably ahead with the support of 43% of decided voters, while Labour’s Sarah Pallett - the incumbent MP - was picking up another 20%.
However, almost a fifth of all voters were still undecided and the gap between Pallett and Manji was well within the 4.5% margin of error, meaning the two are effectively tied for second.
Only 33% of all voters had committed to voting for Campbell, compared to 15% for Pallett and 14% for Manji. This means the TOP leader may have to take votes off both parties to win.
This could be a difficult task, as most of Manji’s support has come from voters who supported the Labour candidate in the 2020 election.
Only 6% of people who voted for Gerry Brownlee that year have switched to supporting Manji, compared to 22% of Pallett’s supporters.
Less than half of those who voted for the Labour candidate in 2020 said they would do so again, with another 13% switching to support Campbell and 12% still undecided.
Poll respondents gave Pallett a net performance rating of -15%, although the plurality (32%) said they didn’t have a view on whether she had done a good job or not.
Almost half of respondents said New Zealand was headed in the wrong direction, with a small majority split between ‘right direction’ and ‘unsure’.
The most important issues to voters were ‘unsure’ and ‘other’, but the top three named issues were housing, the cost of living, and law & order — with roughly 10% each.
Despite being behind the other candidates, Manji is polling better than the TOP party vote in Ilam which was at just 4% — although that’s double its 2% average nationwide.
The TOP leader also has decent name recognition, with 30% of poll respondents able to recall his name when asked. That compares to Campbell at 32% and Pallett at 38%.
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and included responses from 400 adults in the Ilam electorate, weighted by age and gender. The margin of error was 4.5%.
Billion-dollar promise
Manji has been campaigning on a proposed billion dollar investment package for Christchurch, based on needs he identified while serving as a city councillor.
These investments would include new medical facilities, an electric bus fleet, extra cash for road and footpath repairs, a South Island police training college, a new school, and $40 million to repair the Christchurch Cathedral.
Other key policies include free public transport for young people, a tax-free threshold funded by a 0.75% land value tax and a higher top rate, and a tighter Emissions Trading Scheme.
Without a clear path to Parliament, neither National nor Labour have taken a position on whether they would form a coalition with TOP — which pitches itself as a centrist party.
The three leading Ilam candidates, and the Green Party’s Mike Davidson, will take part in a debate in Christchurch at 7pm on Tuesday.
Almost 10% of poll respondents said they would vote for the local Act or Māori Party candidate, despite neither party fielding one in the 2023 race.
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