Election 2023: Live results, commentary, and updates from campaign events around the country

Midnight: With 95% of the votes counted, Christopher Luxon’s National Party has clearly won the election. It will have 50 seats and could reach a razor thin majority with the Act Party’s 11. 

How the last few uncounted votes come through could still force him to call on Winston Peters for support, but for now it looks like the National–Act coalition will scrape in. 

The Labour Party has won 34 seats in Parliament and just 17 electorates. It has been washed out of supposedly safe seats such as Mt. Roskill, New Lynn, and Rongotai. 

It's been a great night for minor parties. The Greens have made history, winning three electorates and bringing 14 members into Parliament. 

Act has added a jewel to its crown by picking up Tāmaki and is bringing in one new MP.  

Te Pāti Māori has won four of the seven Māori electorates and will create an overhang in Parliament. Labour defector Meka Whaitiri will fall out of Parliament altogether. 

New Zealand First will be back in Parliament with eight MPs but may not get their hands on the levers of power. The jury remains out on this one, as National might want some extra votes to shore up their thin majority. 

We’ll file a more substantive story to read in the morning, but thanks for following along!

11:30: Luxon finished his speeches to a chant of “back on track”. That’s a wrap on Election 2023. Now the fun begins! 

11:20: Luxon claims victory, says National will be in position to lead the next government. Huge applause for “restore law and order” line.

Says he thanked Chris Hipkins for serving as Prime Minister and had a call with Act.

“There are still votes to be counted but on current numbers it looks like National and Act will be able to form government” 

Thanked Winston Peters for his offer to “help where needed”.

He said: “Tonight you have given us the mandate to take New Zealand forward”. 

11:00: We are waiting for Luxon’s victory speech now. With more than 85% of votes counted, National could just form a government with Act alone… but it’s close. 

It’s possible the duo might need some support from New Zealand First.

10:50 National’s Mount Albert candidate Melissa Lee is trailing Labour’s Helen White by just 50 votes. 

10:45 Chris Hipkins tells Labour supporters he has called National's Christopher Luxon to concede. 

Here's more from Eric.

The Labour leader Chris Hipkins tells supporters the result tonight was not what anyone would have wanted. But he says it came after a difficult time and did not bring any discredit to anyone who campaigned for re-election.  

He paid tribute to what Labour had achieved in terms of lifting children out of poverty, building more public housing and keeping the death rate low during the Covid-19 crisis.  

Hipkins was speaking to about 300 party faithful at the party's election night headquarters, the Lower Hutt Events Centre. Hipkins was greeted with rapturous applause during his speech. 

"I know you gave it your all and you deserved a better outcome than you have tonight," he said.  

He had been at home watching the results on television earlier in the evening. 

Labour performed poorly in the vote, but Hipkins said Labour's term was one to be proud of.  

He went on to say becoming ptime minister was the honour of his life and following Jacinda Adern was always going to be a big challenge.

"We now hold an important role in opposition to hold the Governmen to account and to fight for those who will lose so much from its proposed cuts," he said. 

The Labour Party was down, but not out, he said, and it would return. 

Chris Hipkins speaks to Labour faithful.

10:30 National has come back a little in the vote count and Labour has risen somewhat. But the right-bloc still would be able to form a government without NZ First. 

10:20: David Seymour says people have voted for change and a record number have voted for “real change”.

Says Act promises 1/5 millionth of the opportunities the county has to offer to each New Zealander.

Thanks his neighbours in Epsom for sending him to Parliament and his “neighbour’s neighbours” for sending Van Velden to Parliament.

10:10: Davidson puts the boot into Labour for spending too much time telling people what not to vote. 

Gives a mihi to Te Pati Māori for their strong performance, crowd gives huge applause. 

Tells supporters they will need to fight harder than ever, presumably because they  will be opposing a conservative government. 

James Shaw says it looks like the Greens will have six new MPs and three electorates. 

He concedes that Christopher Luxon and the National Party has won the election. 

Someone in the back is heckling, unclear who exactly they are booing…

10:00: The Green co-leaders are speaking. Marama Davidson gives an enthusiastic thanks to their supporters. 

Says their campaign “defied history”. Congratulates Tamatha Paul who is on track to win Wellington Central, crowd gives rapturous applause. 

She says Wellington Central is not a Labour stronghold anymore. Says Rongotai is another “so-called Labour stronghold” that is about to turn Green.

Says Swarbrick won Auckland Central during a red wave and will hold it through a blue wave. 

9:40: Disaster for Labour, it looks likely to lose Mount Roskill with former minister Michael Wood trailing behind National’s Carlos Cheung. This has previously been considered a safe seat for the party and Wood was dropped to the bottom of the list after his scandal. He’ll need to close a 1,600 vote margin to get back into parliament. 

9:35: One Green Party supporter tells me that Labour’s collapse is what happens when a party is given “unbridled power and does nothing with it”. Says they had the opportunity to pass progressive policies, but they didn’t and are now being punished for it.

9:30: Chloe Swarbrick is speaking with media about her (comfortable-ish) lead in Auckland Central. Sadly she’s swarmed by media and it’s very hard to hear what she’s saying! 

And Winston Peters has started speaking in Russell, thanking his party workers. He says if NZ First can help going forward, they will. The party has done the impossible, Peters says.

9:15pm Labour's Grant Robertson says it's not the result he was hoping for but all not lost yet, Eric Frykberg reports.

The Labour Party number two arrived at party headquarters a short time ago and refused to concede defeat. 

"There are still a lot of votes to be counted," he said.

"But clearly, this is not the result we were looking for."

8:40pm: Te Pati Maori is cleaning up in the electorates and is on track to win five seats in Parliament. Much better than expected results.

8:20pm: Green candidate Chloe Swarbrick has a narrow lead in Auckland Central, just 500 votes in it. Looks likely to be a nail biter.

8:15pm: National’s vote is expected to decline over the night, but it has shown no sign so far. Act looks to have won in Tāmaki with Brooke Van Velden's lead only getting wider. National leading in Te Atatu and Mt Roskill. TOP's Raf Mani way behind National in Ilam.

8pm: With 26% of the vote counted, it looks like National and Act could govern without NZ First. The two have 64 seats between them thanks to a large outperformance by National. 

7:50pm: Big buzz and lots of pink at Act Party HQ. The colour transformation is fully complete and it is no longer the yellow party. 

The result is a little weaker for them than some might’ve expected a month ago but it still seems like a win to those in the room. 

There are big cheers as Brooke Van Velden’s numbers come up — she’s winning Tāmaki by 1,400 votes with 27% counted. 

7:10pm: 

8:40pmThe first batch of votes have been counted and shows National performing better than expected. 

7pm: The polls have closed and the counting begins! 

Earlier in the day, there was an issue with the electronic version of the electoral roll which caused delays for some voters. This has been fixed but could cause voting to run past 7pm.

The Electoral Commission said there had been “high demand” for voting today and extra staff were brought in to manage queues at the busiest booths. 

New Zealanders cast 1.3 million votes ahead of Election Day, which was well down from the nearly 2 million early votes cast during the 2020 election and only up 140,000 from 2017.

This could suggest low voter turnout, or a high proportion of undecided voters, however an 1News poll taken in early October showed only 5% were yet to make up their minds.

Here’s where the final opinion polls ended up: 

We wrote a story about the final polls earlier in the week, and you can read it here. 

Long story short: National is expected to win the most votes and be in a position to form a Government with Act and NZ First.

However, there is still plenty of uncertainty and possible plot-twists to follow. We wrote about those yesterday and will be updating you on them throughout the night.

The first update from advance votes will come through fast and may already have been added to this live blog. 

The Electoral Commission aims to have results from 50% of polling places by 10pm tonight and 95% by 11:30pm. But we’ll already have a good idea of the outcome well before then. 

Party leaders will give speeches (concession or victory or somewhere in between) at election night events later in the evening, likely from 8pm or so. We’ll have live coverage and photos.

Go put the kettle on!

The scene is quiet at the Labour Party headquarters in Lower Hutt

The scene is quiet at the spot chosen by the Labour Party to note the outcome of tonight's election count, Eric Frykberg reports.

At first, , only journalists, sound crew and Labour Party staffers can be found at the place chosen to oversee the poll, at the Lower Hutt Events Centre in Laings Road, on the edge of the CBD.

But eventually all greater Wellington MPs will be here, along with the party leader Chris Hipkins and his right hand man, Grant Robertson.

Hipkins is expected to arrive at about 9.30 pm.  Until then, he will be at home with his family in Lower Hutt, monitoring the results as they come in. 

A series of opinion polls have indicated a loss for Labour, though the margin varies. 

But there is little sign of concern about this among Labour staffers who had gathered for the occasion.   

One said she was "excited", another was "tired after working all day."

9pm up date from Eric Frykberg.

Later, about 250 Labour Party faithful remained loyal to their cause, despite trends moving against them during tonight's election count.

They filled the Lower Hutt Events Centre which was the Labour Party headquarters for election night.  

"I am still hopeful for the Labour Party," said one woman, Chris Collins.   

"I have always been a staunch Labour supporter and I still am," said another, Phil Waddington. 

"I still believe in Chris Hipkins philosophies and the way things are going."

Across the hall, people expressed hope, despite the trends, and they also expressed support for the way their party has governed the country for the past six years. 

"I am quite happy with it so far," says a fervent supporter, Callum Foothead. 

And another woman said she came here to the election headquarters out of duty, no matter what the polls were saying.

"I felt I should come here, it is something I felt I just had to do," Teresa Connor said.  

The Labour gathering.