The polls agree the most likely outcome on Saturday night is that National will be in a position to form a government with the help of both Act and New Zealand First.
However, there are a lot of moving parts in MMP elections and there are a number of possible plot-twists and sub-plots that will be worth watching on election night.
We'll be live-blogging from 7pm on Saturday, but here are some hypothetical highlights to watch out for...
An upset in Ilam
Plenty of ink has been spilled about TOP leader Raf Manji’s bid to win the Ilam electorate and carry a couple of MP’s into Parliament on his coattails.
Most pundits think it is very unlikely that he will win and a Taxpayers’ Union—Curia poll seemingly confirmed it. But, it remains possible and would be a major shock.
That said, it would be unlikely to swing the outcome of the election significantly. Both blocs would likely still need the support of New Zealand First to form a majority Government.
But if National and Act did better than expected, and TOP got two or three candidates into Parliament, they could plausibly keep NZ First out of Government.
This is why Manji recently pitched National to endorse him, a request which was roundly rejected. An upset in Ilam remains a distant possibility, but you shouldn’t hold your breath.
Te Pāti Māori under/over performs
Labour’s would-be coalition partner, Te Pāti Māori, has been slipping in the party vote polls. It was over 4% in July but has dropped towards 2.5% today.
This isn’t a major concern as the party has been running an electorate campaign, which hinges on co-leader Rawiri Waititi winning his Waiariki seat.
Co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and Labour defector Meka Whaitiri would then be carried into Parliament on his coattails. But they are also in the running for other electorates.
Whaitiri is trying to win back Ikaroa-Rāwhiti and Ngarewa-Packer has been campaigning hard in Te Tai Hauāuru, but polls show both are slightly behind their Labour rivals.
Meanwhile, 21-year-old Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke is giving Labour Nanaia Mahuta a run for her money in Hauraki-Waikato.
Were these three Māori electorates to swing away from Labour, it could create an overhang in Parliament and bolster the left’s chances of forming a government slightly.
On the other hand, there is a reasonable chance that Whaitiri could fall out of Parliament altogether if she loses in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti and Maipi-Clarke wins in Hauraki-Waikato.
Labour loses critical candidates
Barring some minor miracle, Labour is likely headed for a term in opposition. But the extent of its loss will affect how much of a challenge it will present to the incoming government.
In the current polling, the party is expected to only bring in a handful of MPs on its list. The top five are Grant Robertson, Jan Tinetti, Ayesha Verrall, Willie Jackson, and Willow-Jean Prime.
Those members should be safe but the next three list-only MPs, Adrian Rurawhe, Andrew Little, and David Parker, might be tossed out of Parliament.
Below this line, candidates will need to win their electorates to make it home. This includes rising-stars such as Kieran McAnulty, who will face a tough battle in Wairarapa.
Ginny Anderson, who was tapped to be police minister, will have to beat Chris Bishop in Hutt South if she wants to stay in Parliament.
Priyanca Radhakrishnan might win Maungakiekie, while Jo Luxton might lose in Rangitata.
It will be an intense game of musical chairs, with only ~34 seats available for the current crop of ~63 MPs to sit in.
Watch on election night for who makes it home, those people will be the key players in opposition and future leadership candidates.
Green Party picks up more electorates
Last election, Chlöe Swarbrick made history by becoming the second-ever Green MP to win an electorate. This time she could be the first to be re-elected for a second term.
But with the party on track for a record share of the party vote, could it also sweep up some more electorates? It has mounted serious campaigns in three other suburbs.
Julie Anne Genter is running in Rongotai, Tamatha Paul in Wellington Central, and Ricardo Menéndez March has taken on Mount Albert.
These are left-leaning seats and Labour has fielded first time candidates in all three.
With many progressive voters turned off by Labour’s centrist campaign, the Greens have sensed an opportunity to snatch up some electorates.
Swarbrick and Paul are favourites to win, Genter’s race is considered a toss up, but Menéndez March is a long-shot in a Labour stronghold.
ACT captures Tāmaki
Election 2023 is looking to be a real coming-of-age for the Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) electoral system.
The Act Party, which once needed National to let it win Epsom, is looking to expand into the neighbouring electorate of Tāmaki.
It’s currently held by conservative National MP Simon O’Connor who has often fallen out of step with the more socially progressive wing of the party.
Act deputy leader, Brooke Van Velden, believes she can unseat him by opposing housing densification and drawing attention to his old-fashioned social views.
Van Velden recently shared a very public cup of tea with prominent National Party fundraiser, Paula Bennett. Which suggests even some in O’Connor’s own party might prefer him to lose.
The odds are that National will hold on, but Act has a good chance at expanding its territory.
NZ First fails to clear the threshold
This one is very unlikely. New Zealand First has not polled below the threshold in the past month and has been averaging above 5% for the past three months.
But polls can be wrong and voters can have a sudden change of heart on Election Day.
That would be a dream scenario for National and Act, who would immediately be able to form a majority Government together — almost regardless of who picked up those NZ First votes.
One theory that has been floated is that supporters originating from the anti-mandate movement might not be reliable voters and could fail to show up to the polls.
There isn’t any evidence of that, but members of the Act Party in particular will be watching hopefully as the election results roll in.
Hipkins and Peters double betrayal
Labour and NZ First have both unequivocally ruled out going into coalition together. NZ First have staked their campaign on it, and Chris Hipkins said he’d sooner have a second election.
But… it might be mathematically possible for Winston Peters to betray his voters, plus convince Hipkins to betray his, and form a left-leaning Government.
It would be an electoral scandal of historic proportions, but having the numbers to pull it off may be enough to give NZ First a little extra leverage in negotiations with National.
If Peters holds the balance of power, watch to see if he deploys any strategic ambiguity at all.
Hung parliament and fierce by-election
It is plausible, although not probable, that nobody will be able to form a government after the votes are counted. Imagine NZ First fell short of 5% and Labour picked up some of their vote.
This could result in 60 seats for both blocs and no path to a majority for either.
The election would then be decided by the Port Waikato by-election scheduled to be held on November 25, with Labour staying in power as caretaker government until then.
Port Waikato is usually a safe National seat, but you could expect Labour to mount a fierce campaign if the outcome of the entire election depended on it.
Like many of the above scenarios, this is unlikely to occur but would be a thrilling plot twist for news media and residents of the Port Waikato electorate.
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