The National Party will lead the next government after winning 39% of the vote in a blue wave that swept the country and left Labour decimated.
When all regular votes had been counted early Sunday morning, National had won 45 of the 75 electorates and was set to bring another five list candidates into Parliament. Special votes are yet to come.
Party leader Christopher Luxon said he’d called Act’s David Seymour to congratulate him on winning Epsom and a total of 11 seats. He did not seem to have called Winston Peters.
“There are many votes still to be counted, but on current numbers it looks like National and Act will be in a position to form a government,” he said in an 11pm victory speech.
Seymour called the result a win but it was a smaller one than some expected. The party only picked up one new MP (for a total of 11) and flipped the Tāmaki electorate..
Later in his speech, Luxon offered his congratulations to Peters, for New Zealand First’s success, and thanked him for his offer to “help where needed”.
An hour later it was looking like it might be needed, as National and Act had just 61 seats between them with 98% of the vote counted by the end of night.
However, Peters seemed content with eight seats in opposition during his own victory speech.
“In great democracies, the people who are elected must be held to account. Our purpose is to keep them honest and raise the roof when others won’t raise a finger,” he said.
“That’s what New Zealand is going to get out of this election as far as New Zealand First is concerned”.
Labour’s receding tide
Every party spun some sort of victory speech, except for Labour. There was no silver lining in storm clouds washing the party out of even some of its safest electorates.
For example, Labour has won the Mount Albert electorate in every election since its creation in 1946. It has given the party three leaders and two Prime Ministers.
But at midnight on election night, Labour was hanging onto it with a margin of just 103 votes.
Next door, Mount Roskill and New Lynn turned blue for the first time in history, while the Green Party flipped Wellington Central and Rongotai.
Even voters in Māori electorates were lost. Four of the seven seats were won by Te Pāti Māori and the only decisive win for Labour was against its own former minister, Meka Whaitiri.
It was a complete drubbing for the party, which lost almost half its seats in Parliament and the first outright majority since 1993.
Turnout was dismal, with less than 60% of enrolled voters actually casting a ballot. Although, that number should rise as special votes are counted.
Some voters, who rewarded Labour for its early pandemic response, had become dissatisfied as the Reserve Bank lost control of inflation and the social cost of the response was felt.
Others were disillusioned by the party’s slow progress on climate change and tax reform, and opted to vote for the Green Party instead.
The leftist party underperformed relative to the polls, but still secured a record result with three electorates and 14 members of Parliament.
Green with envy
In an impassioned speech to supporters, co-leader Marama Davidson said the party had “defied history” and “turned Labour strongholds green”.
She criticised Labour for focusing its campaign on attacking National instead of pitching voters a progressive vision for New Zealand.
It fell to the other co-leader, James Shaw, to concede the left had lost the election. Chris Hipkins followed suit half an hour later and said he had called Luxon to congratulate him.
“When the tide comes in big, it almost invariably goes out big as well. That is the nature of politics,” Hipkins said.
The soon-to-be Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon focused his own speech on uniting the country, after a somewhat divisive campaign, as leaders often do.
“To all of those who voted for National: thank you, we won't let you down. And to all of those who didn’t vote for National: we won’t let you down either,” he said.
“Tomorrow morning, New Zealanders will wake up not only to a new day but the promise of a new government and a new direction … I cannot wait to get stuck in and get to work; because New Zealanders have chosen change and our government will deliver it”.
Well, good morning, New Zealand. Here's your new Parliament:
215 Comments
Dan's heading is wrong.
People didn't vote for change; they voted for what they once had (or though they could have). This MAGA-NZ; same frustration, same misdirection.
BACK ON TRACK is not CHANGE.
But the train has left the station; external Systemic events will over-power anything this wide-eyed mantra-chanting incoming lot, attempt.
Turnout was 78.4%, less than 2020 and 2017, but more than 2014 and 2011
The number above doesn't include the half a million special votes
https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2023/election-night-results-for-the…
My sentiment exactly. The GNATs have romped in because many just wanted Labour out.
Doesn't make much difference - years back we had already borrowed almost as much as we could, constrained by NZ's fairly average income, and used it to bid up land prices. The Fed called the shots before the election and will continue to. The Beehive now only controls a few fiddly bits around the edges and can largely be ignored. We will limp on selling assets to foreigners and using ag exports to pay the interest on our debt piles as long as the oil flows. If any of that breaks then things will rearrange themselves.
Traditionally a new government gets a honeymoon period where everyone looks forward to the changes they make and lets them get on with it. It's fiddle about time, but NZ will still look like the above no matter what they do.
Who are you to interpret and demean the vote democratically expressed by the majority of voters - or maybe you can read their mind ? If you do not like democracy, or if you like it only when it goes your way, you can always go to Venezuela or North Korea, I am sure you will like it there.
And pressie cards???
If you had ever been to a marae , you would know that they provide Kai on most attendances. It would be considered rude not to . If its not paid for by the taxpayer , whats the problem .
Also a bit rich considering we were bombarded by the 2 main leaders dishing up sweets to all and sundry .
Sorry House, but Hipkins claimed in the debates that they DID focus hugely on health and education. Remember him taking a stab at Luxon asking if spending $200m extra on health was wasted? The answer was yes, it was wasted, as every health metric got worse. Same in education. Just goes to show, just throwing money at Government portfolios doesn't work. Unfortunately, Labour haven't figured that out. After god knows how many tries doing the same thing....
Unfortunately most of the socialism will still be there, in fact if Winnie is needed expect some extra socialism (for example he wants a 50% rates rebate for his voters).
The socialism will be moved from the poor to the rich; for example they are building roads but not increasing fuel tax, and they are allowing property investors to pay no tax to supposedly reduce rents.
I see Mr Rurawhe is at #11. Not sure if that brings him back as it stands but if some Labour electorates do return to them after the special votes or even recounts, believe that will push him further out of the count? He would be a loss to parliament, steady with dignity, respected from all sides of the house. More mps like that would be welcome.
the first article that popped up on my feed last night was an investor saying investors and the real estate industry are very happy
'Everyone involved in real estate is very happy at the moment' | Stuff.co.nz
Outside consultants. Notwithstanding what Luxon said, outside policy consultants will be back in full swing in about six months. Family member knows a policy consultant in a consulting firm and their work drops off 3-6 months before an election and starts picking up 3-6 months after, irrespective whether its Labour or National.
I know everyone likes to go on about bloated bureaucracy, and probably imagines a bunch of overpaid workers spinning around in office chairs all day. But the reality is a lot of them are just every day people with jobs, probably have a mortgage, kids at school etc. They didn't hoodwink the taxpayer into a cushy job, many would have responded to a job advertisement.
If the 15k headcount cull is by way of redundancies, well I'm not sure that's really something to celebrate.
Completely agree. I always find it fascinating when people use terms like "bureaucrats" and "the government" as if they are some alien race of overpaid stooges. These are your neighbours, the guy next to you on the bus, or the parents of your kid's mates at school. Many in the public sector face a daily barrage of insults and threats on social media, not because of something they've done, but because of who they work for. And, they still show up for work the next day. How many of us in the private sector would put up with that?
Hard to know. Last time they couldn’t find enough people to sack and had to pay for their tax cuts through the GST switch. This time there are a lot of people in Kaianga Ora they will axe (building houses is not in their voters interest), and MBIE (again probably related to housing).
I have quite a few contractor mates working for the government. Those in "hard" roles (e.g. doing the unified health system build or immigration systems - IT people) expect to keep their jobs. The problem is their work program is often a decade long, you aren't unifying the currently disparate health systems all over the country in a couple of years. Nobody could, no matter what you did or who you employed. If National wants to cancel big pieces of work like that, all good, but when people start dying because health system records aren't easily transferrable between places, they might get some flak or have second thoughts. And if they see such a system through, it will result in far better frontline outcomes and a lot less back end overhead/staffing costs in the long run (a-laa our new Tax System). Many of the people I know switch between these massive work programs as contractors because they are only needed for 1-3 years, then its onto the next big one for another government agency.
My point is, it doesn't matter who is in power, ministries will have the same problems they have currently got. Changing who is in the executive branch does not change that. I can see the logic of doing away with certain ministries that they consider superfluous and maybe cutting contractor count down for roles like Business/Policy Analysts which could maybe be internal roles. Plus the bloated Coms departments that have exploded under Labour.
I can see a bump in the property market from the election but also feel the sugar hit will wear off. Especially if a few more investors decide to dump property once the bright line rules change.
The economics of owning a property, even with interest deductibility, just don’t work. Without confidence in capital value growth the reward isn’t there.
Labour lost it. The votes they lost went everywhere ... Except to ACT. (This made me laugh out loud.)
Hopefully, National and NZ Inc. realise that the new government does not have a mandate to do some of the more outrageous things those on the right of ACT, NZF, National, etc. would like.
Lots of special votes to be counted. All the polling stations I saw over the last week had queues, some quite long, with people either logging specials or who had lost/forgotten their 'quick vote' cards. The special votes usually favor the left. But this time Labour may not be beneficiaries with the Greens et al taking more. Three seats where margins are small may change.
On the plus side ... The next election might finally become a referendum on fixing our thoroughly distortional tax system. Oh well. I live in hope.
Ho. Hum. Second half starting ... A gripping and even game. (Unlike our election.)
Well I called it. Not quite a landslide but close enough. Still think that National leaving the door open for Winnie was a mistake, clearly NZF only just made the threshold but it was a hard call. Hope now is that National/ACT retain the majority after special votes so Winnie cannot be anywhere near as demanding if they decide to take him on board. There is a by-election in November that National will win so National are very much in the box seat.
You also called Labour getting the same number of votes as ACT as well as it being the biggest landslide ever, both not correct as yet:
by Zwifter | 8th Sep 23, 4:24pm
This election will be an embarrassment for Labour when they get the same number of votes as ACT. Biggest ever landslide is coming, I think even the people that know that Labour are going to lose are in for a shock.
A minor party winning 3 electorates is a pretty big deal. The greens did bloody well, it’s labour that failed big time.
ACT did well with 2 electorates (although National gift them one and effectively gift them the other), but they must be disappointed with their party vote which may mean a 3 way coalition.
I think as soon as NZ First started polling consistently over 5% the writing was on the wall for ACT getting a bigger % of the party vote (as they had previously polled). There would have been a decent amount of ACT's new support base that ultimately aligns better to NZ First - also opposed to co-governance, tougher on crime etc but without the more extreme economic policies. Certainly I know a few friends/family who went to NZ First from ACT once they realized their vote wouldn't be wasted.
ACT did alright all things considered, particularly as their candidates seemed to be subjected to the greatest degree of scrutiny by the media. Seymour cocked up monumentally though in his tough guy negotiation stance with National, as well as picking on Peters only to wind up giving him more media airtime.
Re: Greens, I can see why they are celebrating. At the same time, Swarbrick came across as genuinely unhinged last night ... wonder what they put in the vol-au-vents at the Green's party HQ. Shaw was classy as usual though.
As I think NZ Herald the headline today "something for everybody to celebrate except for Labour".
Nature actually shows the exact opposite.
Wolves, lions, sheep, cows, wildebeest, whales, dolphins, mice, bees, ants, etc. all band together and work towards common goals and the common good. The number of animals that act in isolation is extremely limited. And even plants work together in many situations.
Yes, there is competition between species. Is your comment based upon this? In which case, your comment is likely incorrect as many species actually work together, e.g. plant eaters on Africa herding to provide mutual warning systems, bees and plants, etc.
I wasn’t referring to your comment more the misdirected rantings of how socialism is now over.
I don’t believe this National government is any less socialist than the last government. If they are they’re only fiddling about the margins.
But I don’t agree that ACT are the more socialist.
Chances are increasing that Nationals pro-property policies/promises might well be postponed or even ditched altogether. All on the grounds of fiscal responsibility.
The truth is that their tax policies are straight up unaffordable to begin with.
With current interest rates, insurance and Council rates, from an investment perspective, property investment still wouldn't stack if interest deductibility was restored.
No - not at all. Just putting some reality out there. This is not the only unfunded promise National made - just to get elected. It's truly unbelievable.
New Zealand has too much debt now. The interest bill on that debt is rising with each passing day. We cannot earn prosperity selling overpriced houses to one and other.
Are you willing to pay more tax to cover the shortfall? Something has to give.
and those of us that have been around a long time know that a national MP will screw up and there will be a byelection. the problem for national is they only have 4 list seats so you can't just replace people like ACT NZ first the greens or labour.
JK got rid of five in his time
He was probably the same age as Cindy was when she worked at the Fish and Chip shop everyone likes to bring up. If working in a fish and chip shop as a teenager is fair enough to discredit/disqualify someone for politics as many suggest, then so is beating up kids 2 years younger with wooden bed legs. Major difference is it's not illegal to work in a fish and chip shop.
Will this outfit exercise the 'one dollar, one vote' power behind our new government?
Yup, suspect they'll capitalise big time on our infrastructure deficit. Chris Luxon explained as much in the final debate - National will move all LG 3 Waters infrastructure into CCOs with a public-private (mixed ownership) model and the money will be made available via BR.
The biggest flawed ideology - by some orders of magnitude - was the assertion that endless growth was possible on a finite planet.
In light of that, you comment is a strawman one.
Socialism was just a fight to re-distribute growth to a different echelon; growth is leaving us for physics reasons, and pretty much none of them have appropriate policies
Although the Greens are closer than anyone else. The 1975 Values Party manifesto is orders of magnitude closer that the current Green iteration.
Labour upset its supporters by mandatory vaccine’s, overdoing lockdowns and talking to the country as if they were five year olds which caused many to not trust them with any the power of government. Hopefully now New Zealand will again start to prosper and be more united.
I feel sorry for Raf. Hamish Campbell seems nice enough, but he is just another example of the generic National cookie cutter candidate.
I would have definitely voted for Raf if I was still in the Ilam electorate, even though I'm yet to be convinced on LVT versus targeting realised capital gains and realised equity release. Raf deserved a go in parliament IMO just on the basis of offering some fresh thinking and a level of intellect that seems missing from most politicians, irrespective of party.
However, Ilam was always going to be a tall order for an LVT proponent, considering there are a lot of property owners both in the higher-end suburbs like Fendalton, and areas like Burnside with smaller houses on big parcels of land, who would be negatively impacted and the student vote always tends to go to the Green party.
As for the TOP party itself, maybe it's time for a coup de grace or at least a massive change in direction. They've had three elections with minimal improvement. Perhaps time for a rebranding at least, to shake the past associations with the cat-hater, and a renewed focus on going to war against property investment and speculation (even if that means telling the party faithful to get over their obsession with LVT) potentially focusing on a slightly older, more politically-mature demographic e.g. mid 20s-40s rather than competing for the youth vote with the Greens.
I'd like to see TOP represented, but "something's gotta give" at this point.
It always felt a bit weird for TOP to be targeting an electorate that would probably be net losers from their tax switch. They should be targeting working class suburbs and rural areas. That and I think they need to takes sides more and be clear who they are sticking up for: workers, renters and the future. The reality is that "evidence based", "economically efficient" policy just doesn't sell outside a tiny highly educated technocrat bubble
Yeah I wonder if an electorate like Wigram might be better, then again that is about as a red as Ilam is blue ... real "people's republic of Chch" territory. However, I'd imagine - based on local knowledge - that there are more renters in Wigram, the houses and land don't tend to be so big so may not be as negatively impacted by LVT etc.
Or ditch the electorate-focused approach altogether and have a concentrated tilt at the 5% party vote but with a simple set of policies that appeal to a few key hot button topics (i.e. what one Winston Raymond Peters is the absolute master at doing, e.g. this election with bathroom issues and Covid mandates).
Fundamentally, I think TOP has always tried to act 'above its station' and pretended to be a big party when it is, in fact, a tiny one. On the other hand, if the party could refocus around attacking the societal ill that is leveraged property speculation, along with a couple of other key pillars (such as growing the productive, high value private sector e.g. tech as opposed to NACT's 'skilled immigration' i.e. baristas and gas station attendants, or Labour/Greens belief that everyone deserves to earn $150k PA working for the government in an office doing nothing) it could do well.
I [was] a TOP supporter, and I predicted they wouldn't get in. For some unknown reason they decided to only stand in a handful of electorates, and rely on Raf's 'personality' leadership to get them over the line. It's no newsflash - Raf is not a leader. I watched him at a number of events, and he always focused on his favourite people. An hour into one party, he'd spoken to three people - that's just not how you lead.
Relying on Ilam alone was a dumb decision, reflecting a belief in a personality cult that just didn't exist.
Allowing more local candidates would've almost certainly resulted in a greater party vote result, just through exposure.
OTOH - the 5% threshold needs to be abolished - I'm sure there are people who wanted to vote TOP, but didn't, because they saw the vote as wasted.
Labour should have pulled their candidate - RAF was a strong second. But they were too proud/stuck in the old ways this time around to do an Epsom. Funny, had Labour adopted TOPs tax policies (even choosing to leave the family home out of it), what a different night it would have been.
What the election result suggests to me is that there was substantial growth in support for the parties offering a tax system that captured capital, and reduced tax on labour. Both Jacinda and Chippy made the wrong 'captain's calls' on it. What they need to do with both TPM and Greens is come up with a consensus position on tax going into the next election. Then, NZers will actually believe tax reform is truly possible.
Define "substantial": from the summary above, Greens & TPM going from 12 to 18 seats (including 4 racist separatist ones) out of a 121 seat parliament is less than 15 % of total voter support. While Labour lost 31 seats.
Having said that, I previously made a comment agreeing with you that a common tax theft policy is exactly what Labour Greens TPM will bring to the next election. These parties have proven over the last 3 years that they cannot & will not offer NZdrs anything else except socialist dependency on other peoples money.
That old 'other people's money' mantra is so far from reality. Have a look at marginal tax rates. Look at the $2 billion in tax savings National has budgeted for via changing the indexing of benefits.
It's not about other people's money but a fairer tax system altogether.
No one wants 'your money' (if you have any) - everyone just wants a more equitable tax system. Ours is one of the most inequitable in the OECD as we have no capital taxes to speak of; high marginal tax rates on labour and a comparatively high rate of consumption tax.
Clearly you have ever employed your brain Kate to invest. I have since the age of 18. I went to buy a BMW the other day and an investment moved enough latter in the day to cover what I will outlay. Entrphy. PS. You really annoy me. As a woman I actually feel insulted at your arrogrance.
Can't beat a clean e30, especially with a v8 in it...
Heavily biased here, but In terms of value, I don't think you can beat an E46 at the moment, they're stupidly cheap, heaps of parts around, and super easy to work on with a great community full of resources. Yeah the fuel economy could certainly be better and in stock form, I wouldn't call them particularly fast, but if you want a cheap RWD good handling car there's little else out there that can compete.
Tech has moved on you no longer need RWD. The modern performance car has the E-Diff with torque vectoring. Never thought I would say this but having just bought one I can confirm you can go back to FWD. Combined with the massive improvements in tires over the last 10 years you get a simpler and lighter car.
I dunno I still think there are some fundamental advantages to RWD, hence why it’s still used in more premium vehicles. The main one is weight distribution typically being much better, better ability to put the power down due to weight transfer, and separating your drive wheels from steering eliminates weird torque steer stuff.
Hard to say if they fixed it since I haven’t driven many newer cars but from my perspective, I like RWD and 50/50 weight distribution, just makes the car feel fantastically well-balanced and rotates around corners rather than that heavy front end feeling most FWD cars I’ve driven feel like.
It's not so much the income tax on its own, it's the absence of any other form of taxation. Yeah, we have GST and a few other revenue streams but the vast majority of the tax burden is on income earners, which is unique in comparison to basically all other OECD nations which typically have some form of asset/capital gains tax.
Or maybe my home was bought with money I have earned from my job, and have already paid 33% or 39% income tax. Some idealists want to then tax what I have acquired through work.
And renters don't pay for the costs associated with a rental property, probably 30% of the costs at best.
The way I see it, there are two types of work: "working" in the present and "worked" in the past tense. Between the two, "working" holds significantly more importance for our economy and overall survival, yet it's subjected to much higher taxation. We simply can't rely solely on people who put in the effort but then stop without contributing further, all the while benefiting immensely from the society around them. The current system has functioned reasonably well so far, thanks in part to immigration and high birth rates ensuring an ever-growing population, but with shrinking demographics, it's becoming increasingly unsustainable.
We have generations of hardworking individuals who have diligently paid taxes throughout their lives, but it's not like these tax revenues were set aside and saved; instead, they were mostly spent during people's lifetimes to support our society. Some funds were allocated to vital infrastructure, arguably not enough, but the majority went to various services and societal needs.
This setup has been functional, but it's becoming increasingly unsustainable due to shifting demographics and asset prices dramatically outpacing wages. In order for any of it to be tenable in the future, something will have to change; otherwise, the system will continue to degrade further.
it will be a 122 seat overhung parliament, they will gain the port waikato seat to get to 62 but might lose one on specials to fall back to 61 so cannot govern without WP, not surprised luxon didn't know as he is a novice is this area and was relying on those around him to advise on the situation.
meanwhile Winston is at the duke of Malbrough smiling like a Cheshire cat
Luxon played the odds and as he got to reply second on the debate after Hipkins clearly and without hesitation calling a "NO" to NZF, he may have even changed his position right there in a split second to leave the door open. My opinion is that decision caused NZF to get over the 5% but of course Winnie will not see it that way because he thinks of himself as as the best in the game and it was all his hard work.
You seem to be joining with those folk who are quite happy to ignore the fact that NZ First has repeatedly stated that they will not be going with Labour, and this is visible on their website equally as prominent as their 2023 election policies. And moreover, that was stated as far back as
"Our commitment to you is:
New Zealand First will not return Labour to power whether in coalition or confidence and supply.
We will not work with any party that promotes racism and separatism.
We will not work with any party that threatens freedom and democracy."
https://www.nzfirst.nz/2023_election_commitment
On 2022-11-19 it was reported that: 'New Zealand First leader Winston Peters has revealed a coalition with Labour is off the cards because "they can't be trusted".'
How many times does something like that need to be explicitly and prominently stated by multiple people?
What you say seems to be true.
National is not looking that strong unless they can rope in Winston and NZF. Good luck with that one. No one has ever got Winnie to play their game. So now Luxon will have two 'oppositions' to deal with: the left block and the limelight seeking Winnie from within.
But the biggie is that voting turnout looks to be very low. In the electorates I've analysed thus far - all in Auckland - it seems many Labour voters simply didn't vote, thereby handing some electorates to others.
But, as you correctly point out, there is a sizable number special votes still to be counted. And still quite a few previously Labour seats that could swing back to the left.
I'd recommend Labour and the Greens don't swallow rats. They need to regroup and come up with a reformist tax policy that is palatable to the electorate in general and run hard on that in three years time. And I don't need to add that by three years National's tax plan to sack public servants - actually less contracts renewed rather than sackings - to give tax cuts to landlords and the already comfortable will go down like a cup of cold sick. (But will National & ACT sack that many? I doubt it. It looks more like a con job to me.)
That Wellington voted so very green suggests an activist public service that will be resistant to implementing the will of Parliament.
There is precedent: think about the changes to Three Waters where the redrafted legislation didn't match the deal the politicians had worked out, so the responsible department received a strong reprimand from the State Services Commission.
I wonder how that resistance is going to be dealt with? There have been suggestions in this forum of a large scale-down of the public service, and I wonder if some of the departments would have functions re-located to the provinces if the departments prove to be too troublesome.
at least my house value will go up but then will so will my auckland rates once they cut the money from central government and wayne has to find some money to fill the hole in the budget, not much left to sell in auckland maybe watercare, rest of auckland airport, ports of auckland
lucky dont drive much so wont need to worry about congestion charges
Watercare will be one of the first to be sold off. And Auckland's water bills will rise even further! (They've applied the Rule of 72 to ensure the costs double. Anyone notice that? No? Asleep again huh?)
Watercare was neatly 'packaged' by Hyde under Key's National Party direction specifically for this purpose.
3 Waters (dropping the so unnecessary Maori stuff) was actually a very good idea and would have saved NZ Inc millions and stopped this from happening. Alas now, we'll be exporting millions in profits instead. Well done NZ. (Nice people, but as dumb as dirt. Like taking candy from a baby.)
a few outcomes of the night, this was the smallest vote for the two major parties for awhile
Acts party vote collapsed as NZF grew so that would suggest they target those voters once winston retires (which he will never) or is no longer around.
the greens vote grew even though they were in government which is normally the opposite for a minor party as they take most of the blame of any government.
looks like MMP is coming of age as the minor parties are now are seen as a viable option to vote for together the 4 parties took 30% of the vote
that and all government departments for the next 3 years will only get an increase in operating costs to match inflation, so for any pay raises to go above that head count will need to decrease. no wonder nurses, doctors, teachers, police fought extra hard this term to lock in some rise above inflation.
Are we all assuming that 20% of the votes to be counted will be split down the middle? Aren't special votes usually left leaning?
Barest of margins, updates during the night showed National going from ~42% to 39%, add in the special votes, that might be 37% and ACT might be lower too.
Seems like a call to Winston is likely/inevitable. Then we all get to watch an absolute sh#t show for the next 3 years as Winnie and Seymour trade blows based on diametrically opposed ideology, both of which are wrong.
Well you are right we'll never know but this did spark my interest https://www.nzherald.co.nz/kahu/election-2023-mongrel-mob-and-black-pow…
But then I also thought about NAT ACT and NZFirst policies and turkeys voting for Christmas.
I don't know , they might like the idea of their own segregated prisons , and boot camps should provide lots of prospects.
I live in a gang member heavy neighbourhood , my impression would be that few bothered voting . Could be my negative point of view of them , but I certainly didnt see any sign of an organised voting push .
I would say all Tam achieved was giving Luxon something to frighten voters with .
I only loosely followed the polls because I was always going to vote centre-right. I'm economically conservative, but socially very liberal.
But it seemed to me ACT lost a bit of support in the polls soon after their climate guy came out and said he doesn't believe in climate change.
Brook V seems like a talented politician.
What infuriated me the most about labour was their apartheid policies putting Maori ahead of everyone else. And their HUGE budget deficits. They had no idea how to manage an economy and their policies hurt the average person. They were punished for that. The average Labour voter is worse off not better off and labour did nothing to improve their standard of living. To think that raising the minimum wage from $17 to $23 under their watch was not going to be inflationary was misguided. The $100 billion covid money printing generated this inflation and it's labour's fault and more specifically Arderns fault.
The reserve bank's failure just worsened the problem.
As an ex labour voter, I can say I think alot of people voted labour out as opposed to voting National in.
The next 3 years will be far more difficult. National will have some hard decisions to make and I think one of those decisions will be to cancel the tax cuts due to a much worse than expected budget deficit.
It's time for an economic budget that focuses on finances and not on Well-being. It's time to be fiscally responsible, something that has not happened during labour's tenure under Ardern. We had a good future in 2017 but that was ruined due to economic mismanagement and labour has their day of reckoning.
What infuriated me the most about labour was their apartheid policies putting Maori ahead of everyone else
Same for me. But I am not worried by so called excessive spending. The elephant in the room is our household debt. And if govt starts spending it will reduce the private debt burden.
But yeah ; labour's efficiency in managing spending is questionable.
They should watch how 'efficiently' bankers+landlords runs housing Ponzi
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