I think we've been getting it wrong by focusing on 'net migrant' numbers in New Zealand.
We should be concerning ourselves with the arrival numbers - how many people are physically arriving in the country. And when you look at our recent arrival numbers - well, 'concern' is the word. Yes, never mind the 'net'. How many people are arriving? It's too many and the numbers are not showing any clear sign at this stage of slowing - despite the wishful thinking that you might hear.
I say all this after having a detailed crunch through Statistics NZ's migration data going from August 2022, when our borders fully reopened after the pandemic, to the most recent monthly release of international migration figures - for the month of January (released on March 14, 2024).
The 'headline' news in that latest release was that over a rolling 12 month period ending in January, we had an estimated 'net' gain of nearly 134,000 migrants.
But as ever with this migration data, the real news was in looking back at the revised figures for previous months. Very extensive revisions are par for the course.
These revisions showed that for November 2023 what had originally been estimated as a net gain of over 127,000 people was now believed to have been a net gain of over 141,000 - a new record high. The net gain for November was some 11% more than initially estimated by Stats NZ.
Okay, I need to stress up front that, in fairness to Stats NZ, it puts health warnings all over these migration stats. The reasons are detailed and I won't go into them chapter and verse here, but you can find plenty of explanations on the Stats NZ website. Basically the migration figures are estimates and the estimates are constantly revised, with final estimates not being made till 17 months later.
Here is a typical health warning from Stats NZ in terms of using the data:
We encourage customers to make their own judgement on whether to use provisional migration estimates for the latest months, which have higher uncertainty, or provisional migration estimates for older months, which have lower uncertainty. Annual arrival and departure estimates are subject to notably less revision at five to six months after the reference period.
Okay, so, basically the word is that the data gets more reliable as more months go by. The older the date, the more reliable. In the meantime there will be a lot of revisions.
But here's a thing that is not necessarily explicit from first glance at the data.
I can tell you that in the entire period going back to August 2022 the figures for the net migration numbers have only ever been revised UPWARDS from the initial estimates. And usually by a lot.
Fore example, were you perhaps shocked when Stats NZ reported that for January 2023 (still reasonably early days after the border reopening) there was an estimated net migration gain of 5,200 people?
Do you wanna know what Stats NZ says a more accurate figure is now?
Its latest estimate for the January 2023 net migration gain is 10,553. More than DOUBLE the original estimate. And bearing in mind that according to Stats NZ the later revisions are what we should be going by.
So, it really is a case with these monthly releases that if you think the migration numbers are high - wait a few months, they'll be stratospheric. But of course, people don't tend to look back at the revisions later - massive as they may be.
Another example: Six of the monthly net totals since August 2022 have subsequently been, on revision, doubled, or even more than doubled.
What does this look like in hard numbers? Well, numerically the biggest upward revision to a monthly net migration total was by 6,176 people for the month of June of last year. What was originally estimated as a net gain of 5,033 is now estimated to have been a net gain of 11,209. Stressing again that Stats NZ says the newer estimates are the ones we should be looking at. So, 6,176, according to Wikipedia is the population of Alexandra. It seems Alexandra arrived in the country while we were otherwise distracted.
Here in all their detail are the monthly net figures going back to August 2022 and showing the initial estimate and what the most recent estimate (as published in the March 14 Stats NZ release) indicates.
In terms of the annual rolling (12 month) numbers estimated by Stats NZ these also show big increases upon revision.
If we look month-by-month at the figures for the last six months of 2023, there were subsequent revisions made of between 9.1% and 19.9% in the month-by-month, 12-month rolling net totals.
Remember those percentages.
Because, based on those percentages, I am prepared to say with complete confidence that sometime quite soon what was originally reported as a 134,000 net migrant gain in the 12 months to January 2024 will be revised up by maybe 13,000+ to in excess of 147,000 - IE another record high. It might even top the 150,000 mark. Look out for it because it won't be highlighted. I get that figure just by (quite conservatively based on the last six months of revisions) estimating that the figure will be revised up by 10%.
So, next up is a graphic representation of both the monthly net migration estimates and also the 12 month rolling period net figures. Both graphs compare the first estimate produced by Stats NZ with the most recent estimate as per that March news release. (Click on the magnifying glass logo to see the full-sized graphs.)
So, there you can see just how much the figures change.
The biggest culprit for this wide variance in the net migrant figures is the estimates that are produced for DEPARTURES.
Generally, each month the long term departures from the country have been WAY OVERSTATED (by as much as over 6,500 in November 2023) and this of course brings down the NET estimates, making the net figures not look as high as they actually are.
Here's what this looks like in graphic form, again comparing the first estimate with the most recent estimate as of March this year.
Yes, so quite close with the figures in August 2022 - but absolutely miles out subsequently.
Clearly it is particularly difficult to estimate the numbers of departures.
But again, it has to be stressed that the revisions of these estimates have in each and every case only gone in one direction. These have all gone DOWN (which means of course the net migrant numbers go UP).
We can say with near certainty that on any given month the numbers of people estimated to have left the country long term will be too high as stated and will be revised down - meaning that net migration figure will be revised up.
Which brings us on to the arrivals part of the equation.
The first and most obvious thing to say is that the original estimates made for arrivals since August 2022 have been rather closer to what is subsequently estimated. The original estimates are more accurate. It's also worth noting that the revisions have actually gone in both directions, up and down.
In fact there's been four months during that period (including both November and December 2023) when the figures have been revised down. The rest of the months saw upward revisions, with the biggest of these being 3,300 in March of last year.
Here's the graphic presentation of those figures, again comparing the initial estimate with the most recent.
Okay, so, these arrivals figures are maybe the most 'reliable' quick guide we have. And they are telling us things.
Going back to the early 2000s the long-running average of migrant arrivals into NZ has been around 10,000 a month.
Before last year, according to Stats NZ data going back to 2001, there was only ONE occasion prior to the border closure when New Zealand had more than 20,000 migrant arrivals in a month.
And that one occasion?
Well it was February 2020 - IE right before the border was closed!
I would suggest we are not actually playing post-pandemic catch-up with the migrant numbers. No, we have simply returned to 'business as usual' or 'business as was becoming usual' prior to the pandemic.
According to Stats NZ's most recent arrivals estimates (as at March 2024), last year there was only ONE month in which when the inbound numbers did NOT hit 20,000.
And the total that month? It was in April 2023 and it was 19,656. So, 20,000 give, or take!
There is NO CLEAR EVIDENCE YET based on these figures of any slowdown in arrivals. That's not to say it might not happen soon. But it ain't visible yet. We are taking in a consistent 20,000+ a month. That's either Rangiora, or Levin, or Ashburton - take your pick - every month.
The January 2024 arrivals figure has been given as 21,188, which is bigger both than the December 2023 figure and the January 2023 figure. The December figure, at 20,806 (it was revised DOWN by nearly 2,000) was bigger than the December 2023 figure.
In the 12 months to January, according to estimates, over 257,000 people poured into the country.
THIS is the figure we should be looking at and running our immigration policy around.
Until such time as we have a far more reliable early indicator of exactly how many people are leaving the country long term, we shouldn't be trying to finesse our immigrant numbers on some notion of 'net migration'.
The fact is we are letting people pour in at an unprecedented rate.
Now, yes, I know what the counter argument is: "Oh, but if a lot of people start leaving, we'll start getting a net loss and some areas will start to suffer the economic effects of population loss."
Well, we are a long way away from having to worry about that. We could certainly cross that bridge if we ever come to it.
The other reason we should not be using departures as some sort of 'balance' against the numbers pouring into NZ is that every person that leaves the country long term (if they are an NZ citizen or permanent resident) becomes a kind of contingent liability. They can come back in as and when they want. What if there's something really bad that happens internationally and we get a flood of both NZ citizens and permanent residents that have been living offshore back into NZ?
The now dismantled Productivity Commission was alert to this particular risk and made the excellent suggestion - not picked up by the previous Government - that the Government should discontinue the issuance of new Permanent Resident visas for new Residents and require new Residents to renew their Resident visas every six years.
The logical thing for the Government to do right now would be - as far is is practically possible - close the border for new arrivals while there is a 'reset'. But of course that won't happen under this Government.
What we will likely get is the running of a line that says fewer people will want to come as our economy languishes and as unemployment starts to grow.
But I ask you, look at where most of the new non-NZ arrivals are coming from. For a lot of people, it is not that they want to COME to NZ. It is that they want to LEAVE where they are. And that won't change. As long as people can come here they will come.
We've already given ourselves a huge bout of future indigestion by the massive swathes of people that have come here since August 2022 regardless of what happens from now.
This needs decisive action. When you are in a hole, stop digging.
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